Gonzalo is not out the woods yet.
Indeed!
From what I gather, Lira is not permitted to leave the city. That would amount to being under "house arrest". The SBU, given the public profile of Lira wants to give the impression of "abiding by the law" and not executing opponents. On the other hand, is there any information on what's going on with Lira's wife and children? In any case, if he's not detained in some basement, it doesn't mean that he's not under pressure in some form or another. We don't know either what or if any negociations have taken place. In any case we will see if his discourse will shift with time or not.
Looks like he was too high profile to simply murder, unlike many unfortunate others.
So, here is what I gathered so far about Gonzalo's situation at the moment and some of my speculations:
- Ever since he started his streams in Kiev it was quite obvious to me that he had a lot of luck, or rather, I suspect, for a lack of a better term, "guardian angels" at his side. There were numerous occasions throughout the period when he started the live streams and reporting from Kiev and later Kharkov, up until now, where he "did get through" by "sheer luck" one would assume. He was and still is pretty lucky in that regard. I suspect though that it might be more than just "pure luck", and I'm not talking about any crazy conspiracy theories, but rather, about something like: good forces in this and other realms protecting him.
- Gonzalo says he was detained on April 15 at around 13:20 local time by the SBU
- 8 heavily armed men from Ukraine's SBU came and detained him
- Gonzalo signed a document, that during the period of investigation of his person by the SBU he isn't allowed to talk about anything that happened during and after the detention until a sentence is handed down (he showed those documents to "The Duran" people in private). Thus, he can't and doesn't talk about anything that happened during that lost week. So everything Gonzalo says in that regard, including the statement that he is "well, physically", should not be taken for granted. It might be true or it isn't.
- It very much looks like one of the main reasons why he wasn't disappeared or killed is the public outcry about Gonzalo on the internet in places like here on the forum and on social media, and first and foremost, high profile people like George Galloway reporting and raising awareness about it. Gonzalo realizes that and is very thankful to all those people. Again, he is "very lucky" indeed!
- Given the fact that he is now under investigation and in effect under "probation" by the SBU, and signed documents to not say things, clearly tells us that there are details he can't and won't talk about, and he might say things to protect him and the family.
- According to Gonzalo those authorities in Kharkov are not allowing him to leave the city
- Gonzalo claims that he can't and doesn't want to leave Kharkov: He says, he wants to stay there "to the end". But keep in mind, the situation he finds himself in, so what he says there could be what he really thinks and wants to do, but it could also be what he is expected to say.
- His cellphone and laptop were confiscated by the SBU and according to him, they changed the passwords to all of his former social media platforms. So, his
new Twitter account is for now the only means for him to talk and spread online, besides appearing on podcasts and interviews.
- Gonzalo seems to have legal representation, but it could very well be that that legal protection is compromised, or let's say, unreliable. It likely is a legal representation that the Ukraine authorities gave him
- I might be wrong, but it looks like he was "released" by the SBU and now is back at his own place in Kharkov
- At the Duran stream I shortly heard a child (or children) in the background, so it could be that his family is now living with him. That might be because the cat is essentially out of the bag now (namely, where he is located in Kharkov and that what he does and is confronted with is globally known) and Gonzalo might have figured out that his family is now safer with him. And perhaps rightly so! Having said that, I don't know if the child noises came from Gonzalo's place or any of the two other Duran people interviewing him (it was an audio stream without video). So take that with a big grain of salt
- It looks like Gonzalo has figured out that "attack is the only way forward". Or rather, just spreading the truth and speaking his mind as publically and widely as possible, might the safest course of action at this point. Raising the awareness about him and his situation by just doing what he does best: speak his mind and telling it as it is. And I tend to agree with that strategy!
- So what Gonzalo seems to be doing now is to appear on as many podcasts and interviews as possible and just doing what he does best: speaking his mind about the Ukraine situation, which is largely spreading the unfiltered truth about it. That is very helpful for westerners (but not only!). As I understood it, he seems to have become "a hero" in Russia and other places.
- It seems to me that Gonzalo's is now using his
new twitter channel to not only spread truth but to let people know and keep them up-to-date if he is still "safe" or was again harassed by some forces. He again pinned the 12-hour rule up on his twitter: namely, if he doesn't post there for 12 hours or appears on any video or audio broadcast for that period, people should mobilize and pressure the authorities and spread the concern and what he is saying!
- I think the best we here (and around the world can do) is spreading what he says as far and wide as possible on a continuous basis.
- Gonzalo's and his families fate is still very uncertain. One important thing to look out for is how the Russia vs. Ukraine situation is developing, and specifically, in Kharkov itself.
- Yes, what has happened has made it a bit less likely that something awful could happen to Gonzalo and his family, but I stress, that everything and anything could still happen to them given the bunch of crazies running around in Kharkov (and in Ukraine as a whole). It is probably now common knowledge to all the thugs, Nazis, SBU's etc. where exactly Gonzalo and his family resign. There are a lot of loose cannons and goons running around not only on that front. For example, the "authorities" decided that it is a good idea to release all prisoners of the jails in Kharkov, and not only let them loose, but having them fight for the Ukrainian side. So a very dangerous situation all around!
- The least bad of the evils that can still quite likely befall Gonzalo is to become another Assange, namely, being imprisoned or put under house arrest permanently
- For now there are three things I can think of that could get Gonzalo out of the biggest threats: The best scenario at the moment would be if the Russians take full control of Kharkov. But that seems pretty unlikely to me, unfortunately. Another possibility would be that maybe Putin and co. send some special undercover operatives into the city to free Gonzalo, or protect him. The third and by far most risky (at this point in time) would be that Gonzalo somehow tries to flee to Russia, which is "only" about 40 km away from where he is (linear distance).