Winter Storm Threatens East Coast? Batten Down the Hatches

Laura

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Just want to share some preparation ideas:

Anybody who may be in line for this might as well lay in extra canned food (meats and fish if possible) and bottled water for drinking. Do it now.

Then, when it starts getting stormy, until you know for sure which way things are going, just fill the bathtub and all big pots and buckets in the house with water for washing and flushing toilets.

Hybrid of Sandy, Winter Storm Threatens East Coast

Read more: http://nation.time.com/2012/10/25/hybrid-of-sandy-winter-storm-threatens-east-coast/#ixzz2AKhcXTuR

Much of the U.S. East Coast has a good chance of getting blasted by gale-force winds, flooding, heavy rain and maybe even snow early next week by an unusual hybrid of hurricane and winter storm, federal and private forecasters say.

Though still projecting several days ahead of Halloween week, the computer models are spooking meteorologists. Government scientists said Wednesday the storm has a 70 percent chance of smacking the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

(PHOTOS: The Most Destructive U.S. Hurricanes of All Time)

Hurricane Sandy in the Caribbean, an early winter storm in the West, and a blast of arctic air from the North are predicted to collide, sloshing and parking over the country’s most populous coastal corridor starting Sunday. The worst of it should peak early Tuesday, but it will stretch into midweek, forecasters say.

“It’ll be a rough couple days from Hatteras up to Cape Cod,” said forecaster Jim Cisco of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration prediction center in College Park, Md. “We don’t have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting.”

It is likely to hit during a full moon when tides are near their highest, increasing coastal flooding potential, NOAA forecasts warn. And with some trees still leafy and the potential for snow, power outages could last to Election Day, some meteorologists fear. They say it has all the earmarks of a billion-dollar storm.

Some have compared it to the so-called Perfect Storm that struck off the coast of New England in 1991, but Cisco said that one didn’t hit as populated an area and is not comparable to what the East Coast may be facing. Nor is it like last year’s Halloween storm, which was merely an early snowstorm in the Northeast.

(PHOTOS: Hurricane Isaac Takes Aim on New Orleans)

This has much more mess potential because it is a combination of different storm types that could produce a real whopper of weather problems, meteorologists say.

“The Perfect Storm only did $200 million of damage and I’m thinking a billion,” said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private service Weather Underground. “Yeah, it will be worse.”

But this is several days in advance, when weather forecasts are far less accurate. The National Hurricane Center only predicts five days in advance, and on Wednesday their forecasts had what’s left of Sandy off the North Carolina coast on Monday. But the hurricane center’s chief hurricane specialist, James Franklin, said the threat keeps increasing for “a major impact in the Northeast, New York area. In fact it would be such a big storm that it would affect all of the Northeast.”

The forecasts keep getting gloomier and more convincing with every day, several experts said.

(MORE: 20 Years After Hurricane Andrew, Storm Costs and Ideology Loom Over Florida)

Cisco said the chance of the storm smacking the East jumped from 60 percent to 70 percent on Wednesday. Masters was somewhat skeptical on Tuesday, giving the storm scenario just a 40 percent likelihood, but on Wednesday he also upped that to 70 percent. The remaining computer models that previously hadn’t shown the merger and mega-storm formation now predict a similar scenario.

The biggest question mark is snow, and that depends on where the remnants of Sandy turn inland. The computer model that has been leading the pack in predicting the hybrid storm has it hitting around Delaware. But another model has the storm hitting closer to Maine. If it hits Delaware, the chances of snow increase in that region. If it hits farther north, chances for snow in the mid-Atlantic and even up to New York are lessened, Masters said.

NOAA’s Cisco said he could see the equivalent of several inches of snow or rain in the mid-Atlantic, depending on where the storm ends up. In the mountains, snow may be measured in feet instead of inches.

Read more: http://nation.time.com/2012/10/25/hybrid-of-sandy-winter-storm-threatens-east-coast/#ixzz2AKjNjIWR
 
Thank you for caring Laura.
Seems that those 500 year storms, those 100 year storms, even those 50 year storms have been all occurring within our time lately.
Wild swings in weather patterns are becoming the norm. Seems that extreme can be the word to use. Extreme drought, rain, earthquakes, heat, cold and more seem more persistent and happening more often than not.
Seems I am using the word seems a lot because I haven't prepared documents of proof. Only observations and a memory I cannot trust.

But YES. Watch and Prepare. Don't stop life and become obsessive. Just be alert and aware.
And again Laura, thank you for caring...
 
Jerry said:
Thanks for the heads up, Laura.

Indeed,

I read that we are up for a harsher winter, but I didn't expect it so soon. To paraphrase a quote I once heard "life is a fight, if you don't roll with the blows, you'll get knocked out of the ring."
 
Eek. Thanks for the tips, but I have to say I'm a little nervous about this, especially because I am way way way under prepared.
 
I need to pick up some bottled water, but other than that I'm pretty well prepared. I have plenty of batteries, wood for the wood stove, etc.
 
Other important items might be candles, lighters, first-aid supplies, heavy duty tape for windows - and batteries for your flashlight, radio and clock.
 
I've been watching this storm for a few days, and was hoping it might turn out to sea, but it looks like it's not going to (of course!), so preparations are underway. Considering that the last major storm left us without power for 4.5 days in 100 degree heat, goodness only knows what this one will do. At least it won't be sweltering hot! Stocking up on drinking water over the next few days and already have everything else.
 
Make sure you have shovels inside the house in case it turns into deep snow!
 
An axe and hatchet are also very good things to have on hand.
 
It seems that the Jet Stream may force the hurricane inland, not out to sea:

Blocking Jet Stream may force "Snor'eastercane Sandy" towards Northeastern US
http://www.sott.net/article/252758-Blocking-Jet-Stream-may-force-Snor-eastercane-Sandy-towards-Northeastern-US

The kicker here is that the jet stream, which carries weather systems across the country, is coming along at the perfect time and will block the eastward movement of Sandy.

The jet will force the storm to head due north. The jet should then pick up the storm and bring it back towards to the coast. The result is a five day projection of Sandy as a tropical storm (ie winds of 39-74mph) into New York City by Tuesday midday. [...]

one thing is very clear: the storm is going to be very powerful. The models are printing out central low pressures of between 935 and 950 millibars. The lowest pressure on hurricane Isaac earliest this year was 968 millibars. What does that mean?

This low pressure indicates that even if you aren't in the center of the storm you're going to get hit pretty hard if you are anywhere near it. That's why the exact track of Sandy isn't as important as it might be otherwise. You'll see at least some rain from the Carolinas all the way up into New England. Combine this with a full moon, and there is going to be some major flooding along the coast for many miles.

The reason for this extremely low pressure is again due to the jet interaction. The air the jet stream is ushering in is rather cold. In fact, it's snowing right now in Minnesota. When you combine this cold air with the warm air of a cyclone of tropical origin, you're bound to get rapid intensification.

The rapid intensification will also help to drag down cold air that the jet is ushering in as atmospheric heights drop. Snow is unlikely in the big cities, but snow seems possible to the west-south-west of wherever the storm hits. It's this sector where we will have moisture as well as a cutting off of the warm air associated with the cyclone. You could get some good snow in the Northern Appalachian Mountains with perhaps minor accumulations from State College to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and up to Buffalo, New York, if the middle ground track came to fruition.
 
I agree with Laura, it would be wise to prepare "before hand."

If the computer models are spooking the meteorologists, with referance to a hybrid mega-storm, the portential increases with the instability. Mix in a full moon on Monday and recent fireball sightings and meteorite impacks and explosions, to spice things up in the atmosphere.

If they're covering up meteor sightings, we're probably only getting half the story on the mega-storm, with the other half, when and where it touches down?

In the Northeastern part of the U.S., it's still alittle early for a heavy wintery mix snowstorm. Just about everyone has their attention on the election and Halloween parties. Many will be ill prepared especially if they only referance the local forecast in their area. Below is the report for the Scranton-Wilkes Barre.

Above average temperatures will continue here this week with our next best chance of rain coming Saturday night and on Sunday…not from Sandy but from a slow-moving cold front. The latest computer guidance is showing hurricane Sandy moving north and northwest over the warm Gulf Stream waters off North Carolina this weekend. There the storm will probably be sustained as a category 1 hurricane. From there the storm track will probably back ccw toward the northwest and head for Long Island New York. As the storm approaches land it may weaken down to a strong tropical storm. When the large cyclone makes landfall probably sometime on Tuesday morning winds could range from 35 to 55 mph. Should this track verify our area could be impacted by strong gusty winds from the north from 35 to 45mph along with heavy rain squalls. This would be Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures will remain warm enough for all rain. Below is a computer forecast map showing the storm’s large circulation centered near Long Island. The circular black lines are isobars. The closer they are together the stronger the wind is. Here’s a link you can use to track the hurricane: http://wnep.com/weather/interactive-hurricane-

http://wnep.com/weather/forecast/
 
Weather update:

NOAA to East; Beware coming Frankenstorm

WASHINGTON (AP) — An unusual nasty mix of a hurricane and a winter storm that forecasters are now calling "Frankenstorm" is likely to blast most of the East Coast next week, focusing the worst of its weather mayhem around New York City and New Jersey.

Government forecasters on Thursday upped the odds of a major weather mess, now saying there's a 90 percent chance that the East will get steady gale-force winds, heavy rain, flooding and maybe snow starting Sunday and stretching past Halloween on Wednesday.

The storm is a combination of Hurricane Sandy, now in the Caribbean, an early winter storm in the West, and a blast of arctic air from the North. They're predicted to collide and park over the country's most populous coastal corridor and reach as far inland as Ohio.

The hurricane part of the storm is likely to come ashore somewhere in New Jersey on Tuesday morning, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco. But this is a storm that will affect a far wider area, so people all along the East have to be wary, Cisco said.

Coastal areas from Florida to Maine will feel some effects, mostly from the hurricane part, he said, and the other parts of the storm will reach inland from North Carolina northward.

One of the more messy aspects of the expected storm is that it just won't leave. The worst of it should peak early Tuesday, but it will stretch into midweek, forecasters say. Weather may start clearing in the mid-Atlantic the day after Halloween and Nov. 2 in the Northeast, Cisco said.

"It's almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event," Cisco said Thursday from NOAA's northern storm forecast center in College Park, Md. "It's going to be a widespread serious storm."
 
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