Welcome to an $190 million insider trading analysis.
Someone made $190 million while the crypto markets were crashing yesterday
in light of tariffs that seem to have been preempted by a very specific trader.
We're going to get into it. I want to be clear that I'm not accusing anyone of a crime here.
Insider trading specifically relates to securities.
We've been pretty clear that crypto, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, are not securities.
So I don't even know what this is.
I think this is all legal, kind of.
I don't think it should be, as you'll see.
But the question is, what did this guy know?
Okay, how did somebody make $190 million while everyone else was losing their shirts yesterday?
If you don't know, there was one of the biggest crashes we've ever seen in crypto.
And someone came in 24 hours before and started placing shorts against the market.
Short is just when you bet that the underlying asset is going to go down in price
and you will make money on that now.
This all started October 9th at 1639 GMT time.
They start accumulating this Bitcoin short.
They initially put, and this is not chump change, guys.
This isn't under your couch, you know, pennies.
This is $80 million that initially gets deposited and they start placing shorts against Bitcoin.
Okay, that's fine.
Now the amount is unusual, but that itself is not the unusual part.
Then we have Ethereum starts to get shorted at 349 GMT.
Interesting, $30 million gets deposited into this account,
immediately start placing major bets that the market is going to go down.
Why is this significant?
Well, because at 1457, this is only a few hours later, like 12 hours later,
Trump posts on Truth Social that they are calculating a massive increase on Chinese tariffs.
This is due to a rare earth mineral dispute.
But the point is nobody knew this is coming except, of course,
maybe this guy because he's already got these multi-million dollar shorts.
Now where I think this goes from suspicious to downright diabolical is the fact that at this point,
the market dips a little bit because you have these threats of tariffs,
but the person does not start closing out their shorts yet,
which I think is very interesting.
If you place this huge short bet and then the president tweets something like this,
you would think you would close out your order, but not only do they not do that,
not only do they not close out their short,
they continue to place short bets against Bitcoin.
In fact, this person continues to short Bitcoin all the way up till 2049, 23 GMT.
Why is that significant?
Ladies and gentlemen, it's because 2049 is the last short he places.
Okay, 2050 GMT.
A minute later, one minute later,
Trump announces they're considering an a hundred percent tariff on China,
which of course tanks the market and this person makes literally 190 million dollars in 24 hours,
meaning the guy was placing shorts up to one minute
before Trump announces this big huge a hundred percent tariffs.
And then, by the way, immediately as if he knew something,
we start seeing the shorts close only 30 minutes later.
So both the ETH and Bitcoin short close 30 minutes later.
By the way, these accounts were funded by the same people.
This is the same person making these trades.
So to recap, this person not only times the same day that a big announcement was made,
he makes these 110 million dollars short against crypto.
He then also conveniently waits past the initial like tweet about tariffs
until the most significant announcement, which is the a hundred percent tariffs,
and he's shorting it up to one minute before that.
Guys, this is some of the most blatant crime is legal moments we've seen.
A hundred ninety million dollars.
And the question is, is anything going to be done?
No, actually I can already answer that for you.
Probably not.
But I think what we are seeing here is just the rise of insider trading across the board.
I think it's disgusting.
I think it ruins capital markets and it's bad,
but I don't really know what to do about it
because it just seems like everywhere we're seeing the insider trading.
I don't know if some of you remember there was a time where, you know,
Trump was going to post on his Truth Social that it's a good time to buy crypto
and people were buying spy calls immediately before it.
But this is, I mean, this is just completely blatant stuff,
just given the perfect timing of it all
and the size of the bets that were made under such kind of sniper precision.
At least that's what it looks like to me.
But I also wanted to say this isn't the only place where this is happening.
This YouTuber CheddarFlow has a tool where they analyze options
and they pointed out that recently there's been a big AMD announcement
where they partnered with OpenAI.
OpenAI is going to, you know, receive some of their stock
and conveniently people were making bets on that as well immediately before it.
The most insane insider trade of the entire year just happened.
An AMD whale bought 6 million plus of out the money calls,
which was super unusual.
CheddarFlow actually posted on X right as that occurred
and then only two trading days later,
we had news that OpenAI took a 10% stake in AMD
and those calls that these whales loaded only two trading days before
were already up 300%.
So yeah, I just wanted to point out that it's not just crypto where this is happening.
Seems like across the board.
By the way, I love the title of this.
It says this has to be illegal except I don't think anything's going to happen about it
and that seems to be the rough vibe in the industry recently.
It's that like, hey man, it might not be technically kosher,
but if you can get away with it, you're probably fine.
And it seems like most people are getting away with it in this market.
Even the Nobel Peace Prize isn't safe from people front running.
This is the poly market of it.
And as you can see, this is where it finally got announced the winner.
But before that traders were already basically pricing in the fact
that somebody knew ahead of time that the person who won was going to win hours before
and they made a bunch of money doing that.
So there's insider trading and opportunity to insider trade across the board
for people who have that sweet sweet insider knowledge
and it doesn't seem like a lot's being done about it.
In fact, specifically the smartest thing to do is just know
what Donald Trump's going to post on Truth Social ahead of time
since so much of our market is now just moving based on tariff threats.
That's that's like where the real alpha is.
It used to be you had to buy a Bloomberg terminal.
Now, you just have to know what he's going to post ahead of time
which for the record, I think is a great way to run our economy.
