Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel

Interesting speculations.


D-Day update and thoughts on the ongoing Iran-Israel War - I was hoping it would be known as the One-Day War, but the sides seem to have resumed fire just now.

Items to discuss:

1. Israeli assassination campaign
2. Israeli air campaign
3. Iranian missile campaign1.

Israeli targeted killings

The Israelis kicked off their attack on Iran early yesterday morning (local time) with a series of targeted attacks aimed at assassinating senior leaders in the Iranian armed services as well as nuclear scientists. Alongside several scientists and Ali Shamkhani (a very prominent diplomat), three prominent figures in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps were killed: General Hossein Salami, commander of the IRGC; Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of the Iranian General Staff; and Major General Gholam-Ali Rashid, whom I've gathered was in charge of a joint forces command.

This move was likely counterproductive to Israeli strategic goals, to the point I suspect these men may have been set up to be killed. Allow me to explain.

For decades, Iran has followed an "aggressive proxy" strategy of confronting Israel under which they provided arms, technical know-how, and occasionally direct military support support to proxy forces positioned to directly attack Israel. This is why Lebanese Hezbollah, Ansar Allah in Yemen, and Baathist Syria received so much support from Iran. It's why Suuni Hamas got the same. The thinking was that these Iranian proxies would gradually wear down Israel while establishing a friendly maneuver corridor across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon for the Iranian military to gloriously march on and reclaim Jerusalem from the hated enemy.

If this sounds like millenarian nonsense that's because it was - the odds of such a maneuver actually succeeding would be, in my professional judgment, approximately zero percent. With that being said, Iran in the '90s was a millenarian revolutionary garrison-state that had just spent a decade fighting Saddam and people in that kind of situation can make some genuinely insane plans.

The thing is that it's not the 1990s any more. It's the 2020s and Iran is an increasingly wealthy and industrialized country and the Iranian elite increasingly leery of an endless jihadist project against Israel they get no return on investment from. As such when push came to shove in the last two years we've seen a rapid transition away from direct confrontation with Israel and towards a strategy of defensive deterrence, with the Iranians abandoning proxies in Lebanon and Syria and striking back at Israel directly when their interests were threatened. Of course the Israelis have manifestly not been deterred yet, but that's what the present exchange of fire is about establishing.

And, well, the Israelis just killed three of the architects of that very IRGC-focused "forward proxy" strategy, who probably lobbied and would have continued to lobby in favor of a strategy that saw military resources poured into funding random terrorists instead of invested in the conventional military capabilities and economic development that could make Iran the preeminent power in the Middle East. And driving this home further, Bagheri's replacement as Chief of Staff is out of the regular Army - not the political IRGC.

Why do I think they could have been betrayed? Same reason I think Ismail Haniyeh got sold out - someone very powerful in the Iranian power structure wants to wind down the proxy strategy and they're not above using Mossad to solve their problems for them. As I pointed out earlier, the Iranians may not have known the exact details of the attack but they sure as hell knew enough to take cover.

Seems a bit far-fetched, we have the prior example of the cynical dealing that got Soleimani killed. Who knows.

2. The Israeli air campaign

I pointed out last night that the Israelis didn't seem to be accomplishing much with their air campaign, and I stand by that assessment - the Iranians don't seem to have lost anything they couldn't afford to part with. Many Israeli attacks in the last day seem to have hit dirt, hardened facilities they could not successfully penetrate, or at best "soft" dual-use aboveground facilities. They manifestly failed to knock out Iran's hardened military nuclear facilities, missile forces, air defenses, or a decisive balance of their command and control nodes.

This goes back to the rope-a-dope remark I made earlier tonight - Iran's air defenses seem to have taken a 12-hour siesta at the start of the battle and only "woke up" as the sun set. When they came online, however, they did so all at once and in full force - to the point there were rumors of Israeli aircraft shot down and the IAF seems to have become markedly more circumspect with multiple reports late in the day of large strike packages assembling and then aborting.

The explanation making the rounds for this is that this was due to an Israeli cyberattack. I don't really think that's particularly plausible given the near-total lack of any air defense response for much of the day, without even much manual antiaircraft fire seen. I think it's rather more plausible that the Iranian air defenses were ordered to hold fire and remain in hide sites while the initial Israeli strikes went in.

Why would they do this? Because the Iranians could be reasonably confident those strikes would not fatally damage their hardened strategic infrastructure and those strikes - many of which would be directed at known or templated air defense positions those launchers and radars would not be occupying - would largely expend the IAF's limited inventory of standoff weapons. Lest we forget, the main combat mission of the IAF is milk runs to bomb Gaza, not complex SEAD. When the IAF transitioned to attempting to run aircraft directly into Iranian airspace late in the day to attack with conventional bombs the (still very intact) defenses deployed out of hiding and illuminated, immediately and drastically crimping the IAF's campaign plan given they were then faced with a largely intact air defense network their initial long-range strikes had failed to destroy. Ergo the "rope-a-dope" analogy: the Iranians sat down and waited as they took a beating - one they knew would exhaust their enemy worse than it would hurt them.

3. The Iranian missile campaign

There's not much to say about this that I haven't already said in previous rounds of Iran-Israel skirmishing. The Iranians have ballistic missiles that can penetrate the Israeli missile shield, they have enough of them stockpiled that they don't seem to be in any immediate danger of running out, and this force was manifestly not destroyed nor even suppressed by Israeli attacks today. And as of today they've revealed a willingness to throw them at the heart of the Israeli state and its strategic infrastructure if sufficiently threatened.

Moreover we haven't even seen Iranian drones and cruise missiles launched yet, at least as far as I've been able to gather. Some from allied militias in Iraq, certainly, but nothing from Iran proper. You can bet the Iranians have an apocalyptic stockpile of these relatively cheap and simple weapons ready to launch at a time and place of their choosing.

Going forward? I hope there's a ceasefire soon, I think by now both sides have made their point and there's little purpose in continued fighting. The IRGC hardliners who would have agitated for a nuclear attack on Israel are dead or discredited, the Iranians have established they can eat Israel's worst and bounce back, and deterrence has been adequately established going in both directions.

Addendum:

Hezbollah isn't defanged but the Iranians seem to have pulled back a lot there. I forgot to mention that the IRGC generals in question may not have been very competent - they oversaw the partial collapse of a proxy project in Lebanon and the total collapse of another in Syria.


Mike Pompeo has come out to "refresh our memories"—to give us potential spoilers—let's see how much of what he said actually comes true.

He has said that a major incident could occur soon, that Iran could carry out cyber attacks in various parts since the IRGC has been working on planting various terrorist cells in various countries, including the USA, so this will be a very difficult period (he says it will be, not that it could be) and that it is important for both the USA and other countries to be united against this to dissuade them from carrying out any attack against any American anywhere and in any field (in another video related to saying that Iran is behind the deaths of hundreds of Americans and they continue trying to kill American officials) and that it is also important that Israel finish its mission so that the threat passes, he also believes that for the above to happen, this could last several weeks since Israel must systematically destroy several of Iran's defenses ... He says that he was involved in thinking about what forces were necessary to solve that same problem and therefore the time estimates he gives.

This fits with Whitney Webb's research into Mossad-linked NGOs that have been given oversight on a number of American utilities.

In 2020, just prior to COVID, the Israeli non-profit CTIL offered to 'take care' of a ton of American critical infrastructure: hospitals, dams, water infrastructure, power grid, election infrastructure, and nuclear reactors - and were allegedly granted access to all of it.

So for years the PTB has had Mossad assets in place for a 'cyber attack' in America. It could be an attack on systems across Western countries more generally. Webb thinks that this will be blamed on Iran. Add terrorist cells engaging in false flag 'violent antisemitism', and you have causus belli for America, probably eliminating the MAGA agenda entirely.

Plus, if Iran falls like Syria, lots of US corporations will get millions of new contracts, land, and a big herd of sheep to fleece. Plus BRICS gets a major setback.
 
I think books like The Controversy of Zion or the Georgia Le Carre novels provide a good enough picture. I don't think the C's would lay it all out for us, because it would be dangerous to know.
There is no single 'plan' that stretches back through time, but the elements - the 'basic ingredients' - for what we're seeing unfold today are scattered through Jewish writings, particularly late 19th and early 20th century writings.

You've seen Nick Fuentes's theory a few pages back in this thread, that the current 'goal' is the creation of a (de facto) 'Israeli empire of the Middle East', which wouldn't just be the regional power in a 'multi-polar world', but would supplant the US as global hegemon because it would thus have controlling interest of the world's 'energy spigot'. While it's a scary thought, the US actively helping Israel to realize such an outcome actually 'fits' with the previous handover of global hegemony, from the British Empire to 'Pax Americana' - a cooperative, orderly transition that 'amalgamated' one with the other, and which clearly placed Washington, DC, the new 'imperial center', atop the food chain, although it permitted some 'bureaucratic functions' and 'consultation roles' to remain in London.

Laurent Guyenot writes about 'The Mission Theory' towards the end of From Yahweh to Zion:

Modern Zionism is a global project because it is the child of Yahwism - a rebellious child in its youth, but loyal in maturity. Jewishness itself is a global project, for what does election mean if not a universal mission? This universal mission, too, has a double face. There are many Jews who associate this mission with a priesthood for the salvation of mankind. Jabotinsky quotes in The War and the Jew (1942), in a mocking tone, a Parisian friend who adhered to the theory “that it was the sacred mission of the Jews to live scattered among the Gentiles and help them rise to higher ethical levels.” The Italian rabbi Elijah Benamozegh, author of Israel and Humanity (1914), is one of the most famous representatives of this “mission theory”:

“The constitution of a universal religion is the ultimate goal of Judaism,” he writes. This entails a sense of Israel’s superiority: “In Heaven, one God of all men, and on earth a single family of peoples, among whom Israel is the eldest, responsible for the priestly teaching function and the administration of the true religion of humanity.”

Universal religion therefore implies “the recognition that humanity must accept the truth of the doctrine of Israel.” This universal religion will not be Judaism proper, but an inferior form, founded on the laws God gave to Noah and not on the more demanding ones given to Moses. The universal religion of the Gentiles will be Noachism. “The special cult of Israel is safeguarding the means of realization of the true universal religion, Noachism.”

This conception deviates significantly from the Bible, whose only universalist message is that the nations (goyim) must pay tribute to Yahweh in his Jerusalem Temple. It is therefore legitimate to ask whether the fraud of Noachism and all the other versions of the “mission theory” are not simply skillful rationalizations of Jewish supremacism. The same question may be asked about the attempt of Joseph Salvador, in his book Paris, Rome and Jerusalem (1860), to outline a universal religion based on a fusion of Judaism and Christianity. He believed that the natural center for this syncretistic religion would be Jerusalem, and therefore advocated the establishment of a new state, a bridge between the Orient and the Occident, encompassing the borders of ancient Israel.

Yet it would be wrong to suspect conscious hypocrisy in most of the countless Jewish thinkers who have echoed the Jewish people’s global “humanitarian mission.” There is certainly none in Alfred Nossig, a Jewish artist and activist who, before working for the emigration of selected Jews to Palestine by collaborating with the Gestapo in the Warsaw ghetto, wrote in Integrales Judentum (“Integral Judaism”), published in Berlin in 1922:

“The Jewish community is more than a people in the modern political sense of the word. It is the repository of a historically global mission, I would say even a cosmic one, entrusted to it by its founders Noah and Abraham, Jacob and Moses. [...] It forms an unconscious nucleus of our being, the common substance of our soul. [...] The primordial conception of our ancestors was to found not a tribe but a world order destined to guide humanity in its development. This is the true meaning, the only meaning of the election of the Hebrews as a chosen people.”
 

Some footage of a claimed 'drone launching truck' a la Mossad.

We've seen something similar, for the very first time, just weeks ago in Russia. Both operations were being planned in advance ie. concurrently. What are the chances that they were completely independent of each other at every level, or that one inspired the other at short notice?
 
So they had a nice war yesterday, and now it's all gone quiet. But don't be fooled, they're just being respectful to Trump, and not distracting from his huuuuuge and beautifully amazing birthday military parade.
 
Iran has been preparing for this war since the Invasion of Iraq, even more so over the past three years. I am expecting that soon we will witness the total annihilation of Israel as a WarMachine... Let us prepare mentally for what is coming. We have been patiently waiting for this future time line.Things are about to get really NASTY. There is a high possibility that Trump will BETRAY Israel.The Israelis will soon become refugees seeking safe haven around the world.

Would be nice, but seems a bit too copey for me.
 
There is no single 'plan' that stretches back through time, but the elements - the 'basic ingredients' - for what we're seeing unfold today are scattered through Jewish writings, particularly late 19th and early 20th century writings.

You've seen Nick Fuentes's theory a few pages back in this thread, that the current 'goal' is the creation of a (de facto) 'Israeli empire of the Middle East', which wouldn't just be the regional power in a 'multi-polar world', but would supplant the US as global hegemon because it would thus have controlling interest of the world's 'energy spigot'. While it's a scary thought, the US actively helping Israel to realize such an outcome actually 'fits' with the previous handover of global hegemony, from the British Empire to 'Pax Americana' - a cooperative, orderly transition that 'amalgamated' one with the other, and which clearly placed Washington, DC, the new 'imperial center', atop the food chain, although it permitted some 'bureaucratic functions' and 'consultation roles' to remain in London.
Remember that Sheik (Imran Hosan) that Laura posted a couple of videos of a few years back? Well in his interpretation of Islamic eschatology Pax Brittanica gave way to Pax Americana, and prophecy tells that the final chapter is Pax Judaica. After that Turkey gives Hagia Sophia back to the Orthodox Church and the new age begins.

I’ve read the Black Box thread, so I’m pretty clear on where we stand on Mohammad, but since you dropped “Pax Americana” I figured…😉
 
Israel cant wage war longer than couple of days without the open and massive military support of the US and "allies". For prolonged war Israel would need US bases in the Middle East, and at least heavy logistic support from the US army if not the whole fire support. Even then it is question how long Israel and the US can do it, because its 2025. now, not 2003.

Israel rallies on planes and aerial bombing, Iran on ballistic and other missiles. For firing ballistic missile you need a truck, for the plane to take of you need air strip and the whole logistics with fuel and ammunition. I guess that the real war will be when we see total obliteration of Israel air bases and Iranian strikes on US bases around the Middle East.
 
We know from the C's they already have more nukes than Israel. This attack from Israel though "feels" different. Really can't say and we will have to see how events unfold in the coming days/weeks.
I missed that "more" than Israel part @Mr.Cyan. Thank you.

Session 27 April 2024:
(Altair) How many nukes does Israel actually have?

A: 157

Q: (Joe) That's less than people suspect.

(L) Huh?

(Joe) People say 400. The number of 400 has been touted over the years as the number of nukes that they have.

(L) Well, they said 157.

(Joe) It's still enough, right?

(L) Yeah, that's a lot.

(Joe) How many does Iran have?

A: More.

Trump and the U.S. are a bit late telling Iran they will not be allowed to have "nukes". We will not get this kind of information from any current news sources that I know about.
 
There is no single 'plan' that stretches back through time, but the elements - the 'basic ingredients' - for what we're seeing unfold today are scattered through Jewish writings, particularly late 19th and early 20th century writings.

You've seen Nick Fuentes's theory a few pages back in this thread, that the current 'goal' is the creation of a (de facto) 'Israeli empire of the Middle East', which wouldn't just be the regional power in a 'multi-polar world', but would supplant the US as global hegemon because it would thus have controlling interest of the world's 'energy spigot'. While it's a scary thought, the US actively helping Israel to realize such an outcome actually 'fits' with the previous handover of global hegemony, from the British Empire to 'Pax Americana' - a cooperative, orderly transition that 'amalgamated' one with the other, and which clearly placed Washington, DC, the new 'imperial center', atop the food chain, although it permitted some 'bureaucratic functions' and 'consultation roles' to remain in London.

Laurent Guyenot writes about 'The Mission Theory' towards the end of From Yahweh to Zion:
I'm just wondering, doesn't Israel lack the man power for empire status? According to Google, the population is just under 10 million... London and New York each have like 1 million less people compared to the whole of Israel.

How does one become an empire with 10 million people? 😐
 
How does one become an empire with 10 million people? 😐
The "prophecies" being circulated around this issue, mostly from some rabbis I've seen, is that there is a superior caste (the yahweh people), and them slaves, mostly european and american ("edom") goyim who would be honored to offer their daughters as "unmarriageable pleasure toys". Those who refuse, and the rest, would be "depopulated". A brief summary.

Edit:
Here is an example that appeared on X just now, but there are many others that are more explicit
 
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If Israel is counting on some kind of popular uprising leading to regime change as a follow up plan, I think they miscalculated.
Certainly, from Tasnim News Agency Telegram. I wonder if their hatred of Iran prevents them from seeing beyond their psychopathic delusion.
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Magnificent presence of people in the kilometer-long Ghadir march in various parts of the capital

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Iranian provinces rise to honor the blood of martyrs in a large public rally against the Zionist regime

Now; Unique images of the presence of people from different provinces in the historic 10-kilometer march
 
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