I think so too. According to one election-fraud analysis (below), vote fraud really took off in 2004, and then spiked again in 2020. I suspect there's still a large base level of cheating, especially in the "always blue" states. Trump narrowed the margin by like
10 points in each of these states this election. His actual numbers are probably even better. (Who knows if that would be enough to actually win those states, though.)
Voter Turnout: Z-score and Trend Analysis - Part 22 of many The attached image shows the voter turnout residual between 1952 and 2020, using the trend line calculated between 1952 and 1988. Reminder: The trend line between 1952 and 1988 spans 36 years and has a correlation coefficient of...
t.me
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The last post was published months ago, but is entirely relevant to the 2024 turnout numbers. By abduction we can conclude they really did not expect Trump to be running (one way or the other), because they didn't want people to be able to make a direct comparison with 2020. The image in the...
t.me
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My guess based on the graph: they expected to win in 2016 using more or less the baseline level of cheating, but that didn't work. Covid offered them the opportunity to cheat on a whole new level using the unprecedented number of mail-in ballots. 2024 was a return to baseline levels of cheating due to all the factors already discussed.
As for how big the baseline is, if the Cs' numbers were correct, that could give us an idea. Here are the official results:
Trump - 46.1% - 62,984,828 votes
Clinton - 48.2% - 65,853,514 votes
Turnout - 60.1% - total of 136,669,276 votes
According to the Cs, this was what actually happened:
Trump - 63% - which implies 83,093,100 votes
Clinton - 37% max (31% min, given votes for other presidential candidates) - which implies a max of 48,800,710 votes
Turnout - 58% - which implies a total of 131,893,810 votes
So if these numbers are accurate, Trump was robbed of 20 million votes in 2016. In 2020, they added probably another 20 million or so to Biden. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump's actual popular vote number was higher than 63% this election...
And there's already evidence of fraud this election, particularly in the Senate races. E.g.,
An yet the swing states barely budged, allegedly. That doesn't seem very likely.
Good point that I forgot to mention in an earlier post on things that have changed between 2020 and 2024. There were several key court decisions the RNC fought for leading up to the election and on election day, e.g. ensuring deadlines for ballots to arrive, keeping polling stations open, or closing on time, etc. All these things seem to have made a difference.
BTW, here's Seth Keshel's victory lap piece:
Topic: 2024 Election Forecasts
skeshel.substack.com