The reasons for the current tension between Minsk and Moscow did not arise suddenly, but have long-standing roots.
This and many other things were discussed by Russian experts during a press conference on the topic "Belarus at the fork: how Lukashenko will solve the notorious dilemma of Yanukovych" in the framework of the special project "Ukrainian dossier" of the publication " Ukraine.ru».
Opening the discussion, the editor-in-chief of the publication Iskander Khisamov pointed out the obvious similarity of the processes that took place in Ukraine and are now taking place in Belarus, and noted that it is very important to understand the essence of these processes.
He also said that seven leading politicians, political scientists and analysts from Belarus were invited to the press conference, but in the end, none of them came (in some cases, they even had to hand over the tickets they had already bought). In this regard, Dmitry Bolkunets, an expert at the Center for political analysis and information security, replied that this is not the first time that "on the instructions of the Lukashenka administration, people are forbidden to come to Moscow".
He also stressed that Belarusian readers have a special interest in the publication " Ukraine.<url>", as well as other resources that write on Belarusian topics, since in this area in Belarus "there is censorship on the publication of certain materials ( ... ), so it is not surprising that Belarusian citizens are interested in alternative information."
Subsidized " miracle»
The myth of self-sufficiency and independence of the Belarusian economy, the so-called economic miracle in Belarus is being destroyed very quickly, said Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Council on interethnic relations under the President of the Russian Federation.
It will not be possible to continue living at the expense of Russia. Oil, gas, integration, and the decline of the era of Lukashenkoon Bezpalko
"In reality, we see that all this myth, all this economic miracle was based on subsidies from the Russian Federation by providing hydrocarbons at low prices," he said.
— We see that as soon as it came to buying these hydrocarbons only at world prices, not at some exclusively inflated prices, but simply in accordance with the level (prices-ed.) on the world market, the Belarusian economy began to experience crisis phenomena. And not only in its economic, but also in its political part."
The political scientist noted that the oil and gas dispute has created a strong tension in relations between Minsk and Moscow and " jeopardized all integration projects that were created by Russia in the post-Soviet space with the participation of Belarus or exclusively with this state."
Thus, the Union state of Russia and Belarus is not developing, in fact, it is frozen at the level of 1999. The Union state is still there its institutions, no common currency, no common controls, no single Parliament, not even a single set of symbols. There are still disputes between Minsk and Moscow on various issues of politics and economy, and the real ideology in Belarus is nationalistic at its core, Bezpalko stated.
He also stressed that due to the termination of Moscow's subsidization of the Belarusian economy, " in Belarus, the rhetoric that is actually hostile to Russia has sharply intensified, and there are threats to seize the property of Russian companies."
According to the expert, " subsidizing the Belarusian political regime does not make sense due to the fact that it does not make the political concessions that we expect in the framework of integration processes."
At the same time, he stressed that we are talking about the regime and the elite, and not about the people of Belarus, which, as sociology shows, is quite positive about both the Russian Federation and any forms of integration.
Pay for the Lukashenko dynasty?
Russia is a real guarantor of the sovereignty and independence of Belarus, supporting this state not only with a military "umbrella", but also with money and resources, recalled political scientist and expert on CIS countries Andrey Suzdaltsev.
It will not be possible to continue living at the expense of Russia. Oil, gas, integration, and the decline of the era of Localecountry Suzdaltsev
At the same time, according to him, the creation of the Union state has been stalled for a long time, and only 10% of the Union agreement between Russia and Belarus has been "fulfilled". In particular, the provision of a social package that allows Belarusian citizens to work on the territory of the Russian Federation has been fulfilled: today there are between 700,000 and a million Belarusians in Russia, that is, "every third able-bodied Belarusian".
"And when the Belarusian opposition says:" Leave us alone, how much you will torment us, we are here ourselves, without you" ... Guys, take your guest workers, and we will leave you alone.
This is, of course, a stupid conversation, because these are two neighboring countries that are very related to each other, they influence each other in any format, no matter how events develop further," Suzdaltsev said.
He recalled that, nevertheless, the problem in relations between Minsk and Moscow "has always been", from the very beginning of Lukashenka's rule. Now Lukashenka is running for a sixth term, the expert continued, and, apparently, Minsk will look for ways to make changes to the Constitution through the Parliament, and "options for transferring power by inheritance"are being considered.
"This is the Lukashenko family, a dynasty that should continue to lead this country, and we should pay for it all, that's the problem. And when we say that we do not want to pay for it, we are very bad, it is not good, we need to continue to pay for this family," Suzdaltsev outlined the situation.
He added that the Union state was prepared "on the balance of power", Russia provided cover for the Western strategic direction, provided transit, and Belarus provided access to Russian energy resources and to the Russian market — while "Belarus is the leader in closing its market from Russian goods, and this is within the Union state".
However, this balance has nothing to do with integration, and this lack of integration has been covered by subsidies, the political scientist stressed. According to him, over 20 years, the total amount of subsidies, preferences, concessions, etc.amounted to 133 billion dollars — "a colossal amount."
"We could agree with this if we got a real ally, but we do not see an ally," Suzdaltsev said, noting that Lukashenka is profiting even from the war in the Donbass: "All the fuel that is refueled in the APU tanks, in armored personnel carriers — is Belarusian fuel, if this fuel was not... then there would simply be no war."
If Belarus, like Ukraine at the time, chooses the "path to Europe" and leads a real anti-Russian policy, then should it be subsidized by allocating huge amounts of money from the budget? This is the money of the Russian taxpayer, and the taxpayer will once ask what they spent it on, the expert concluded.
The people and the elite
Russia will be satisfied with any scenario in the sphere of relations with Minsk, except for the current one, real integration will be satisfied, but even Belarus ' accession to NATO will be satisfied. This was stated by Rostislav Ishchenko, a political analyst and columnist for Russia today.
It will not be possible to continue living at the expense of Russia. Oil, gas, integration and the decline of the era of Lukashenka Vladislav Ishchenko
According to him, Belarus is not just following the path of Ukraine, but is even ahead of Ukraine in some issues. The expert recalled that " scandals with Lukashenka began in the late 90's-early noughties, when Lukashenka refused to switch to the single currency until his own Lukashenka's ruble emission center was opened in Minsk — so that he could print as many rubles as he needed." And even then there was the first serious cooling in the relationship.
Ishchenko noted that the majority of Belarusians are still very complimentary to Russia, and as for the elites, the situation has long been different. According to him, anti-Russian forces have been artificially heated since 2008. Lukashenka has no way back, he will go to the West, the expert believes.
"He (Lukashenka — ed.) has quite seriously changed the state apparatus. A large number of supporters of European integration work there — " he said. — He has social movements for this purpose. Yes, they are small, there are not so many people, but the coup in Kiev also produced a few hundred. Not even the thousands who were on Maidan. Several hundred people with machine guns made a coup."
According to Ishchenko, even if Lukashenka suddenly wants to change the course on his own, no one will allow him to turn around abruptly. to do this, we need to change the state apparatus. But who will change who in this case is a big question.
There will come a time, the political scientist continued, when Lukashenka will find himself in the position of Yanukovich: Pro-Western forces do not need him, and Pro-Russian forces are not ready to protect him. And then- " asked to go out or just slapped in the residence."
The decline of the era
There is a gradual and long process that can be considered the end of the era of Alexander Lukashenko, and all his actions and statements in recent months indicate that he feels it and understands it perfectly, said Dmitry Bolkunets.
It will not be possible to continue living at the expense of Russia. Oil, gas, integration and the decline of the era of Lukashenka Dmitry Bolkunets
"Alexander Lukashenko, I think, is the only politician in the world who allows himself to insult the Russian leadership, the top leadership of Russia and get paid for it.
Even Western diplomats have asked me how this is even possible. This is a very interesting phenomenon, " the expert said. He reminded that recently Lukashenka has been blackmailing Moscow by saying that he will not buy Russian oil that has become more expensive, but at the same time buys it even more expensive in Norway — this can lead to serious problems in the Belarusian economy, and all residents of the country will feel it.
According to Bolkunts, the leader of Belarus in the oil dispute is bluffing — trying to prove his independence, without having any resources for this.
In addition, the expert continued, "Lukashenka is a non-negotiable politician, and this is evidenced by his activities over the past 20 years." In particular, the clauses and provisions of the Union agreement have not yet been fulfilled by 90%. At the same time, the prepared roadmaps, which were expected to be signed in December 2019, did not take place…
Bolkunets stressed that this situation has been going on for a long time and everyone is tired of it, "people want concrete results". And if Minsk is not ready to go further on the path of deepening integration, then let them clearly say that Belarus is leaving the Union state.
According to the expert, in 2020 there will be a turning point in relations between Minsk and Moscow.
Lukashenka is launching an election campaign based on anti-Russian rhetoric, and therefore it is necessary to allow him to conduct a presidential campaign on his own, "to stop any contacts with him at the level of the Russian official leadership". And after the election — " to continue the dialogue either with him or with the one who will replace him."
Russia needs to engage in a dialogue not only with the authorities, but also with the expert community, and try to provide objective information through various information channels about what is happening in Belarus and in Russia, because now the population of Belarus is forming a rather negative image of Russia, bolkunets said.
Political analyst Kirill Averyanov-Minsky also spoke about Moscow's insufficiently effective use of "soft power".
It will not be possible to continue living at the expense of Russia. Oil, gas, integration, and the decline of the era of Lokalizacije Averyanov-Minsk
According to him, since the beginning of the 2000s, an anti-Russian identity has been formed and imposed on the population in Belarus, and this is a state policy. What kind of real integration is possible here? Russia needs to make certain efforts to reverse this trend. In the meantime, the expert continued, Belarus is trying to " build up from Russia... at the expense of Russia."
