One thing that was mentioned briefly in this thread that has me concerned about cryptocurrency prospects, is quantum computers. Without quantum-safe encryption, all cryptocurrencies are vulnerable to being decrypted extremely fast by one such machine, which would tank the entire market, given that it's driven by artificial scarcity derived from a classical computer taking a long time to run the algorithm that finds the coins. Given the recent mainstream progress in developing such a device, it is pretty likely that the PTB already have one secretly, and if so, would be able to crash the market at their whim. On the other hand, they would have to "show their hand" by doing so, and probably wouldn't do it lightly.
So.. wait until everyone is invested and the market is big and everyone thinks they found a way to circumvent PTB currency control, then crash the whole thing with the "invention" of a quantum computer. If this happens, any existing quantum-safe currencies may spike in value, which may be ones developed by the PTB central banks themselves. Or maybe investors will get cold feet and stay away from cryptocurrencies completely, possibly being herded back to traditional currencies. The C's have said that we're going all digital money (before there is no more money at all), and I'm sure whatever form that takes the PTB will want to make sure they ultimately control and oversee it, and seek to compromise anything that they can't control.
Here's an article exploring the quantum effect on cryptocurrencies:
https://medium.com/the-quantum-resistant-ledger/be-prepared-for-quantum-computing-era-bb1a9ec6cd35
Some computer scientists say quantum computers are moving closer to reality and will cripple bitcoin’s encryption systems and doom bitcoin. Governments are investing aggressively in quantum computers, which are ultra powerful.
Quantum computers, first theorized by physicist Richard Feynman in 1982, have promised a new era of computing. The theory has only recently translated into significant real-world advances, with NASA, the CIA and Google working on a quantum computer. Computer scientists now warn the machines will cripple existing encryption methods and destroy bitcoin’s technological foundations.
Andersen Cheng, co-founder of Post Quantum, a U.K. cybersecurity firm, told Newsweek that bitcoin will end the day the first quantum computer arrives. He said the quantum computer will undermine the cryptography surrounding bitcoin’s public and private keys.
Bitcoin recipients share their public key with the sender. To spend bitcoin, a bitcoin owner must use their private key. If another party learns the private key, that party can spend all the bitcoin.
Martin Tomlinson, a professor at the Security, Communications and Networking Research Centre in Plymouth University, said a quantum computer can calculate the private key from the public one in a minute or two. By learning all the private keys, someone would have access to all available bitcoin. Tomlinson did not know when the first quantum computer will appear that will have this capability, but he noted that extensive research is under way. The European Commission announced a $1.1 billion project earlier this ear aimed at bringing a “quantum revolution.”
It seems like you could have a quantum-safe cryptography, but it would require consensus from all the bitcoin users to change the underlying encryption method and algorithm, which apparently can't happen without major disruption to the current system.
Here is some recent progress on quantum computing, suggesting that we are pretty close to having a device in the next few years that may cause the aforementioned ruckus:
Google to prove quantum supremacy this year by demonstrating a 49-qubit quantum computer that can out-compute any current classical computer:
https://www.sciencealert.com/google-s-quantum-announcement-overshadowed-by-something-even-bigger
IBM used a quantum computer to simulate a chemical reaction:
https://futurism.com/ibm-just-broke-the-record-of-simulating-chemistry-with-a-quantum-computer/
Microsoft is developing a topological qubit and a programming language for their quantum computers:
https://www.engadget.com/2017/09/26/microsoft-new-coding-language-is-made-for-quantum-computers/
University of Tokyo theorizes of a new method to create quantum computers:
https://futurism.com/researchers-claim-they-just-invented-the-ultimate-method-for-quantum-computing/
Some challenges and uncertainty:
https://singularityhub.com/2017/09/26/what-it-will-take-for-quantum-computers-to-supercharge-machine-learning/
So lots of questions - how soon will a "quantum supremacy" level device that is practical for real-world applications exist? Will various industries adapt without consequence - will this be like Y2K with a smooth transition, or will various sectors experience a "collapse"? We probably have only a few years before we find out.
