Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel
- Thread starter Ocean
- Start date
Doesn't look good to me:
In Tehran, civilian evacuation is ongoing after Israeli aggression, heavy traffic jams.
According to Al-Mayadeen, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards intelligence, together with two aides, were killed in an Israeli strike.
And according to Israel’s Channel 14, Israel is preparing the “Dahiyeh Doctrine” for Iran, meaning large-scale destruction of civilian infrastructure, as in Lebanon.
Another wave of Iran's missile attack is reportedly coming soon...
In Tehran, civilian evacuation is ongoing after Israeli aggression, heavy traffic jams.
According to Al-Mayadeen, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guards intelligence, together with two aides, were killed in an Israeli strike.
And according to Israel’s Channel 14, Israel is preparing the “Dahiyeh Doctrine” for Iran, meaning large-scale destruction of civilian infrastructure, as in Lebanon.
Another wave of Iran's missile attack is reportedly coming soon...
As of two months ago, Russia & Iran do have an alliance:
Some language from the treaty that supports that Russia may be obliged to come to Iran's defense in some fashion:
So Russia is obliged to at least not support Israel, provide military consultation to Iran, and (most vaguely) "cooperate to prevent interference in the specified regions and destabilizing presence of the third states there". I guess we'll see what that may mean. Considering that Russia has successfully won its special military operation to eliminate Neo-Nazis from Ukraine, I sure wonder if they will likewise label Israel a terrorist state and get involved.
Nević Nenad
The Living Force
Bear in mind that there are actually two different ways of thinking. Iranians perceive the war much more serious than Israelis. Tehranians fleeing the city doesn't mean that they are in more danger than Tel Avivivians, just that they are more aware what is happening.
One more thing, Israel allegedly "killed many officials and the commanders", totally "decapitated Iran's army", but country of Iran and its army are still fully operative. In Israel's place, I would be worried.
I think some Israelis perceive it serious to the extreme.
You're not alone.
Alon Mizrahi's latest tweet:
Let's hope and pray.
ApotheosisMMC.
Jedi Council Member
I think what Joe is referring to is that it's not a full-fledged mutual defense treaty in the event of a war between the two sides. Unlike, for example, the one Russia signed with North Korea, where Article 4 requires that if one side carries out a war invasion, the other side is obligated to provide military and other assistance immediately and with all the means at its disposal.
This treaty doesn't clarify anything similar in a way that could serve as a deterrent (imagine the tantrum some countries would have thrown if that were the case). It's more focused on cooperation in multiple areas of interest, including security and possible military assistance, of course, but not an obligation to provide full mutual assistance in the event of war.
In any case, behind the scenes, Russia should be fully aware of the real situation in Iran to some extent and evaluate actions based on the needs that arise and how events unfold.
One thing that's emerging from this particular conflict is the kind of asshole Trump is allowing himself to turn into. He may not have the full picture but he is tacitly allowing this to go ahead, even playing his part by causing confusion and distrust via his talks. He has blood on his hands now and accumulating a lot of negative karma, wiping whatever good he might have done so far.
In his position and where he is in this life, he shouldn't worry about the the nature of hold Israel has over USA. He needs to rip the band-aid off, release the Epstein list unredacted, let Israel be implicated, call out Israel for their war and killing of innocent civilians and stop all aid to Israel, period. And then, let the deep state do what they want to do and face it head on. Stop being a pussy and act like a man you are pretending to portray to the world.
In his position and where he is in this life, he shouldn't worry about the the nature of hold Israel has over USA. He needs to rip the band-aid off, release the Epstein list unredacted, let Israel be implicated, call out Israel for their war and killing of innocent civilians and stop all aid to Israel, period. And then, let the deep state do what they want to do and face it head on. Stop being a pussy and act like a man you are pretending to portray to the world.
Ricardo
The Living Force
(fwiiw ) Seems unlikely at this juncture ,his self-aggrandizing of the warped speed program , long after the covid psy-op ended , the inability and / or even unwillingness , of stopping arms shipments to Israel , ignoring the genocide in Gaza , means that most likely actions that shift the current geo-political situation will have to come from "elsewhere". ( my 2x cents / blah)
But wait, what's this... a Sunni Muslim country has spoken up?!
Pakistan calls for Muslim states to unite against Israel
He's channeling Gaddafi... from 2008, when Syria's Assad was in the room, laughing at him...
It's always a pleasure to see Gaddafi again, and sad at the same time. He knew, and surely he knew, that one day it would be his turn, and seeing and hearing people laugh at what he claimed was the absolute truth, he must have felt alone. A hollow laugh, as they say. A laugh that must have stuck in the throats of Bashar and the others.
He must have also felt very strong, who knows. His country destroyed, his Green Revolution wiped out, Syria destroyed, Iraq destroyed, millions dead. Are those who considered Gaddafi an eccentric, a madman, still laughing?
Corvus
Dagobah Resident
It is said Iran used a new method in attacks, few decoys and manevaurble advanced missles and EM interference, decoys got attention while those missles got through. Also saw a video where israeli battery launched two missles and first went down to the ground probably damaging battery, maybe it was only failure of system because it happens.
That article is probably right, saturating expensive israel defense with older missles and drones in first waves and then when it is down use more advanced but all other allies can then join the party like Hezbollah, Huti and Iraq militias with less advanced ones. Russia also uses that strategy in Ukraine A2/AD (anti access area denial) with overwhelm tactic.That is why Israel is so desperate to get big brother US in the fight because of logistics, because they know they will not last very long on their own and US will probably intervene then if there is depletion on Isreali side and most of it goes through, won t let Israel became like Gaza, but also US will be left with no choice because Israel would probably if no help go nuclear and US does not want that but with those lunatics there is no limits where and how even if US intervens.
Corvus
Dagobah Resident
Iran missles have to get across many barriers and for many countries to be able to do it the chance is zero so it is very good result in military terms because they probably did not launch the most modern systems yet or in greater numbers.
First they are intercepted by US aviation, then British and French aviation, then US carriers, then US THAAD system, then Saudi air defence, then again US, British and Jordan aviation in Jordan, then Jordan air defence, then israel Arrow 3 and 2, David Sling and at last Iron Dome. And Isreal aviation flies in Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan like it is their territory and fires from there.
Iran state TV reported they downed israeli MQ 9 Reaper drone above Dehloran city close to Iraqi border. No confirmation and videos from Iran telegram channels.
tass.com
First they are intercepted by US aviation, then British and French aviation, then US carriers, then US THAAD system, then Saudi air defence, then again US, British and Jordan aviation in Jordan, then Jordan air defence, then israel Arrow 3 and 2, David Sling and at last Iron Dome. And Isreal aviation flies in Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan like it is their territory and fires from there.
Iran state TV reported they downed israeli MQ 9 Reaper drone above Dehloran city close to Iraqi border. No confirmation and videos from Iran telegram channels.
Iran shoots down MQ-9 Reaper drone launched from Israel near Iraqi border — TV
According to the report, the aerial target was destroyed over the city of Dehloran
tass.com
Al Mayadeen reports the same:
Iran has not yet used its most powerful weapons, top official says
- ByAl Mayadeen English
- Source: Agencies
- Today 04:31
Mohsen Rezaee says Iran has only used old-generation weapons so far and warns that future retaliation against the Israeli occupation will be much more severe.
Mohsen Rezaee, senior Iranian official and former commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), declared Sunday evening that the Islamic Republic has so far only employed older-generation weapons in its response to Israeli aggression, warning that the more powerful phases of Iran’s retaliation are yet to come.
Rezaee, who is also a member of the Expediency Discernment Council, emphasized that “major surprises have not yet been revealed” and that what awaits the Israeli occupation is “greater and far more severe.” He asserted, “The war will continue until the complete defeat of the occupying entity.”
According to Rezaee, Iran has exercised extreme restraint, using missiles with 1.5-ton warheads while refraining from deploying its most powerful payloads. “We have not yet used stronger warheads,” he said, warning that new types of weapons may soon enter the battlefield.
In his first public appearance in military uniform since the start of the conflict, Rezaee described the current battle as existential; “This is a decisive war… and Iran will be the one to determine its conclusion.”
Confrontation could last weeks
He predicted that the confrontation could stretch on for several more weeks and noted that what has been deployed so far marks only the beginning of Iran’s response. He reiterated that Iran’s longstanding policy since the 1979 Islamic Revolution had been to avoid direct military conflict with with the Israeli occupation unless the broader Islamic world was united in that fight. However, the recent escalation has pushed Tehran to reassess that stance.Rezaee also accused US President Donald Trump of authorizing "Israel" to carry out its initial strike, claiming that “Trump thought Iran was on the verge of collapse and that Israel could bring it to its knees with a single blow.” But, Rezaee said, “the wisdom of Iran’s leadership exposed their intentions.”
He added that the real goal behind the aggression was not just Iran’s nuclear program but also its missile capability and national sovereignty.
Iran national security to be guaranteed for 50 years
Looking ahead, Rezaee warned that retreating from the confrontation would have dire consequences, “This is a fateful war. If Iran holds firm, its national security will be guaranteed for the next 50 years.”He concluded by stressing that while the Israeli occupation started the war, it will be Iran who decides when and how it ends. “If the United States and Europe do not stop their direct support for Israel, the warfront will expand and we will be forced into the next phase of confrontation,” he warned. “We have tactics that haven’t even been used yet.”
Rezaee also revealed that Israeli occupation forces had planned a second wave of assassinations, which the Iranian armed forces successfully foiled.
Iran can continue launching missiles for three weeks
Before launching True Promise 3, Iran was estimated to possess up to 2,000 missiles capable of reaching "Israel", with Tehran dramatically increasing its production in recent years to expand its arsenal, according to the IOF.“The assessment entering this conflict was that Iran has about 2,000 missiles. We understand they have a plan to increase that number dramatically, to 8,000 missiles, in the near future,” Lt Col Shoshani said on Sunday, according to The Telegraph.
Earlier, Israeli PM Netanyahu had warned that Iran's intensified missile production aimed to manufacture 300 missiles monthly, projecting an arsenal of 20,000 within six years if left unchecked.
Based on these projections and the current launch tempo, chief executive geopolitical risk Sibylline analyst Justin Crump estimated that Iran would exhaust its missile stockpiles within approximately three weeks if maintaining present firing rates.
*****
I doubt that "Iran would exhaust its missile stockpiles within approximately three weeks"; I think that Iran is prepared for the long war.
Here is a snippet from another report from Al Mayadeen:
Iran has far more missiles than estimated; in the thousands
- ByAl Mayadeen English
- Source: Israeli media
- Today 09:30
In a revealing statement, Netanyahu’s "National Security" Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi acknowledged that Iran possesses “thousands of ballistic missiles,” a figure that vastly exceeds previous estimates of 1,500 to 2,000.
Speaking to "Israel's" Army Radio, Hanegbi framed the development as a significant challenge, admitting, “This is not a battle that over the long term will be able to bring an end to the Iranian threat.”
Tehran fired more than 200 missiles at "Israel" on Friday and Saturday as part of its retaliation, many of which have penetrated "Israel's" renowned air defenses, forcing the military to warn its people that the defenses were "not hermetic", according to The Telegraph.
The Iranian airstrikes underscore the challenges faced by even the most advanced air defense systems in countering ballistic missiles, which travel at hypersonic speeds exceeding Mach-5, leaving few surface-to-air missile batteries capable of effectively intercepting them.
Military force alone can’t destroy Iran’s nuke program: Hanegbi
Hanegbi's recent remarks came shortly after he conceded last Friday that "Israel’s" military efforts alone would not be sufficient to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program. He stressed that while airstrikes may target infrastructure, the broader goal is to pressure Iran into relinquishing its nuclear ambitions altogether.“This cannot be done via kinetic means,” Hanegbi said, emphasizing that military action will not dismantle Iran’s missile or nuclear capacities. He referred to past cases like Libya and South Africa, where governments abandoned nuclear programs through political decisions rather than external force.
...
Probably not all Shias resist STS dominion and not all Sunnis embrace fake jihad, but, yeah, I tend to agree with that generalization especially from a state-politics point of view. I mean, although there can be a significant amount of exception to that rule, it's still significantly true anyway, I think.
I think Erdogan's Turkey has also been showing signs of waking up for some time
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