Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel

palestine said:
It seems Israel has been over-using a disproportionate, bloody - force, espcially against Palestinians. They sowed the seeds of chaos and instability all around them, killed the previous Persian president, toppled Assad, ruined Syria and instaured a pro-LGBT leader there.

Now they managed to kill another Iranian president.
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Some people know about it. Today I happened to wear a T-shirt, as I went out to pick up an Amazon delivery:
gz_hp.png

Usually I do not wear it in public, but the driver extended from the other side of the gate, a chef's kiss to the design. The dictionary says:
Currently seen all over social media, the chef’s kiss alludes to a gesture associated with chefs when they feel that a dish has been executed flawlessly. The gesture itself, as Jay Hathaway at The Daily Dot explains, is performed by “bringing [the] thumb and forefinger together, kissing them, and separating them again.”
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Shifting gears from local to more global, and translating from a comment to a Swedish FB post:
We should thank you Trump, because you have damaged both the ugliness in the United States and in Israel as well as in your vassal states. That damage can hurt far more than you have managed to hurt genuine fine people around the world. This is already the end for you. You are naked now.
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In the above, Trump becomes a target, but he is credited with assisting the revelation.

There might also be an element of blackmail behind the support for Israeli dreams:
Session 13 January 2024
Laura said:
Q: (Ursus Minor) Has Israel hidden small nukes in Europe and the U.S. for retaliation?

A: Yes.

Q: (Niall) Where are they located? Please?! [laughter]
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Perhaps the location can be judged from policies? Washington, New York, Berlin, Paris, London, Brussels, and Rome? Or is it more likely they are in harbours.

While this is all happening, France is rekindling its nuclear programme and involving other European states, with backroom agreements circumventing the need for public discussion. About six decades ago France helped a lille country in the ME. There is a tradition.
 
At least two strikes that seem to have taken place have been denied by Iran. One on Aramco (Saudi) and one on Oman.

www.dailysabah.com

Iran rejects any military attack on Oman amid Gulf conflict

Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff on Tuesday rejected reports that its forces carried out a military strike on Oman, saying the Gulf state is a “friend...
www.dailysabah.com www.dailysabah.com

www.middleeastmonitor.com

Iran blames Israel for Saudi Aramco drone attack, calls it ‘false flag’

Iran has accused Israel of carrying out a drone attack on facilities belonging to Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco, describing it as a “false flag” operation. Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted a militar…
www.middleeastmonitor.com www.middleeastmonitor.com

False flags intended to provoke a response from gulf states? That would be suicidal on their part, so it seems like a stupid plan. But then this whole operation was a stupid idea.

Israel is getting showered with cluster warheads from more advanced weapons, possibly Khoramshorr.

Apparently this isn't AI

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028812755013091671
 
Regarding THAAD interception missile systems, then the Iranians claim on TG that they have knocked out 2 systems in the UAE.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard:

After the destruction of two THAAD air defense systems at the Al-Ruwais base in the UAE, we have gained a great opportunity to successfully hit our targets.
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According to Grok, then there are only 10 THAAD batteries in the world, 7 operated by the US worldwide, 2 by UAE and 1 by Saudi Arabia. Each battery has normally 6 launchers with 8 missiles. In the case of UAE, they have 2 batteries with a total of 12 launchers though some are not sure if it is more or less per grok (see spoiler).

So if Iran has knocked out the 2 batteries comprising all 12 launchers then that is a major headache for the UAE. If on the other hand, it only concerns 2 launchers, then it is not so bad as it is made out to be, provided that they still have some missiles left. Yet for every launcher which is disabled, the easier it will be for Iran to bomb with near impunity.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) operates two THAAD batteries, as confirmed by multiple sources including Lockheed Martin (the manufacturer) and the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance. Lockheed Martin's official materials state there are 10 active THAAD batteries worldwide: 7 U.S., 2 UAE, and 1 Saudi Arabia.A standard THAAD battery typically includes 6 launchers (truck-mounted, each carrying 8 interceptors for a total of 48 per battery), though configurations can vary slightly (some references note 6-9 launchers possible, but 6 is the most commonly cited baseline for operational batteries).However, the UAE's initial Foreign Military Sales contract (notified in 2011-2012) was for elements supporting two batteries, including 9 launchers total (along with 48 missiles initially, though more have been added over time). Later approvals (e.g., 2022) added components like launch control stations but referenced building on the existing two launchers positioned (likely per battery or key sites), though this appears inconsistent with battery counts—likely referring to specific deployed units rather than total.Reliable defense sources converge on the UAE having two full THAAD batteries in service since deliveries began in 2015 (first battery operational around then, with the second following), making the total launchers most likely 12 (6 per battery) or possibly up to 18 if expanded to 9 per some configurations, but the standard and most cited figure aligns with two batteries × 6 launchers each = 12 launchers.For context:
  • The UAE was the first non-U.S. operator of THAAD and has used it operationally (e.g., intercepts against Houthi missiles since 2022).
  • Recent Lockheed Martin statements (as of late 2025) reaffirm the UAE's 2 batteries as part of the global active fleet.
Exact launcher numbers aren't always publicly broken down beyond battery count due to operational security, but two batteries (implying around 12 launchers standard) is the clearest consensus. If you're looking for more precise or updated details from a specific source, let me know!
 
Ben said:
According to Grok 🙄

It probably is AI on further inspection, sorry. There are a lot of genuine videos of cluster warheads coming out but the grouping is much more widespread than in that video, and they're all at night.
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Sorry?? It doesn't feel.
Not need to be a cluster warheads, can be also fragmentation by interceptors.
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Although censorship in Israel is strong, as always, now the world is viewing it live.

🇮🇱 Chinese state TV CCTV reporter shows extensive damage in center of Tel Aviv by Iranian missiles.

He also said they only had 5 min of filming before Israeli security personnel came to tell them to stop filming.

🔴 @DDGeopolitics
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🇹🇷❌🇮🇱— CNN Turk crew arrested after documenting missiles in a live broadcast from Tel Aviv

⚜️@TheSimurgh313
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Ben said:
According to Grok 🙄

It probably is AI on further inspection, sorry. There are a lot of genuine videos of cluster warheads coming out but the grouping is much more widespread than in that video, and they're all at night.
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I've noticed that Grok's guess is just as good as anyone's. For one same video, different people ask Grok and it tells one person that it is real and the next one that it isn't.

As for the video you posted, yeah I had my doubts too. In the end I concluded it's AI. Someone pointed out that the solar panels look weird. I also think that the voiceover in English is less likely in Israel, and more importantly sounds badly acted. There's also an Israeli flag on the balcony that looks 'unnatural', like it's rigid, and it is facing inwards, when normally you would want to place flags facing towards the street as a statement. Finally, there's the test of 'if it's too good (i.e. impressive) to be true...' - and yes, it's too sensational and cinematic.

Damn AI, it has ruined journalistic video evidence for us, as well as cat videos. I won't forgive that.
 
From Trump's Truth Social: (FWIW)

Trump Says “Too Late” to Talks as Iran Seeks Negotiations After Massive US Strikes​


"In a post published on his Truth Social platform, Trump wrote: “Their air defense, Air Force, Navy, and Leadership is gone. They want to talk. I said ‘Too Late!’”

"On Monday, the US military announced it had struck more than 1,250 targets across Iran within the first 48 hours of coordinated operations with Israel."

 
mabar said:
🇮🇱 Chinese state TV CCTV reporter shows extensive damage in center of Tel Aviv by Iranian missiles.

He also said they only had 5 min of filming before Israeli security personnel came to tell them to stop filming.

🔴 @DDGeopolitics
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Here is the transcript of what he said, in English:

...Israel's defense system directly hit in the center of Tel Aviv, such a scene. Now you can see this building behind me. This building has almost been completely destroyed.

And then, not just this building, but also the buildings on both sides, including the other building across the street, several buildings are in a state of destruction. And on both sides of the street, there were a lot of vehicles when the missile hit. These vehicles were also destroyed.

At present, most of these vehicles have been taken away by the rescue team. Now we can see that there are still heavy machinery here. At present, a cleaning work is still underway here.

This neighborhood can be said to be a mixture of a residential area and a commercial area in the center of Tel Aviv. This time, the Iranian missile broke through the layers of the Israeli air defense system. It was directly hit.

This can be said to have brought a huge psychological shock to Israel. Because Israel has been preparing for this operation for a very long time, including offensive and local defense. In addition, there are several American air defense systems, including U.S. military aircraft, etc. to support Israeli air defense nearby. But despite such a thorough preparation, it still failed to stop the Iranian missile, but directly hit Tel Aviv. It was the same as last June, when Iran and Israel were in conflict.

At present, Israel is still very strict with the shooting control of these areas hit by Iranian missiles. Just now, we only shot for about five minutes at the scene. Immediately, a security guard came over and told us that we were not allowed to shoot here.

And this kind of strict information control itself is also one of the emergency measures that Israel has taken to deal with the conflict between Israel and Iran. Reporting from Tel Aviv, I am Liang Hui.
 
Aeneas said:
Yesterday I saw a clip from an article in Bloomberg which pointed out that the UAE and Qatar had urged the US to replenish their reserves of interception missiles as they only had like 4-6 days left of supply at the current rate. Apparently the US has ignored their request. This might just be based on rumours but when one looks at the number of missiles produced per year, one can also see how they might not have an endless stockpile of them. Here is a picture which shows the yearly production of each type of intercept missile.
PAC-3 is for the Patriot system.
View attachment 116617
The loyalty to the US might dwindle for some GULF states if they discover that the US cares less about their defence than they were led to believe and more about Israel. If Saudi Arabia discovers that the attack on them was actually a false flag attack by Israel in order to get them on their side, then that could also shift perceptions. Realistically that is not going to happen overnight as they are likely to wait and see how things develop before getting too actively involved. But who knows as this war has many twists and turns yet to come.
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If Iran (who is at the receiving end of threats) can prepare in advance (for non-profit national duty), why did these for-profit military producers are not prepared for more orders in advance? There is some serious disconnect in the picture.

True, they are old technologies (technology improved at crazy pace during the last 2 decades) and it is hard to increase more production in short time, those old parts may not be available for production and lot of material incompatibilities pop up.

Then why to go to war in the first place? It looks like no body is in control of the situation. Every body is fighting with each other, hoping that some body else will take care of the bigger picture. It looks like a hopeless desperation from US's perspective. Trump must have resisted until the last moment and gave up.

There is another cat and mouse game going on if we one looks at the statements of Bibi and Trump administration. Bibi tend to place the causes to "the greatness of USA" ( as if he is putting words in USA/Trump's mouth) while making mossad torch oil fields ( Saudi Aramco, Jordan, Oman). Now, Marco Rubio seems to hint at 'Israel dragged us' into this war narration.

And all those nukes hidden in western countries, which no body knows except black-mailer-in-chief. I am not sure whether this level of control (blackmail leverage) at this global level ever happened/recorded in History. We know secret government (deep state) did this type of currency manipulations, color revolutions etc. as standard operating procedure. But now, they are fighting among themselves to have any coherent action. In a way, Trump broke the secret goverment monopoly.

I guess that is as for as things can go in this STS world - Wishful thinking and self destruction UNLESS some body "bails" them out.
 
Another Chinese one, once again told to stop filming:

Iranian missile strikes Israeli high-rise building; Chinese workers capture harrowing scene while working at height.

In Tel Aviv, Israel, Chinese construction workers captured footage of Iranian missiles striking high-rise buildings. Netizens urged the workers at height to cease filming and evacuate immediately, warning that lingering smoke would signal imminent danger.

VIDEO HERE.
 
Professor Jiang gave an updated view of things, which looks at things slightly differently. He does think that Saudi Arabia had an interest in a war with Iran from an economic point of view. Also he sees Iran as having an ability to destroy the gulf states and Israel at will by simply destroying their desalination plants on which they rely almost exclusively. Worth a listen (15 minutes).

 
Windmill knight said:
I've noticed that Grok's guess is just as good as anyone's. For one same video, different people ask Grok and it tells one person that it is real and the next one that it isn't.

As for the video you posted, yeah I had my doubts too. In the end I concluded it's AI. Someone pointed out that the solar panels look weird. I also think that the voiceover in English is less likely in Israel, and more importantly sounds badly acted. There's also an Israeli flag on the balcony that looks 'unnatural', like it's rigid, and it is facing inwards, when normally you would want to place flags facing towards the street as a statement. Finally, there's the test of 'if it's too good (i.e. impressive) to be true...' - and yes, it's too sensational and cinematic.

Damn AI, it has ruined journalistic video evidence for us, as well as cat videos. I won't forgive that.
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Yes, it's the flag that looks really off and is just a bit too obvious.
 
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