Civil War in Ukraine: Western Empire vs Russia

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sitting said:
Oil poking at $60--then perhaps higher.
Dollar-rubble poking at 50--then perhaps even lower.

A quick update:

After crude and ruble hovered at the 60 and 50 level ... the combination moved. Against the prevailing trend. Presently it's 58-52.

This may simply be a modest correction, but it could also mean a potential reversal of trend. The latter would not be favorable as financial movements either predates or is suggestive of on-the-ground happenings. At the moment, it's not that big a deal. But that could change in a hurry.
 
Yozilla said:
Cannot blame Biden coz he is hurt so much, as is the rest of coterie - for being duped about this PNAC NWO theme....
Transparently corrupt politician US Vice President Joseph Biden is President Obama's insurance policy against impeachment or assassination. He is famous for making stupid, irresponsible public statements and he had lined up his f**kup second son Hunter, who had been kicked out of the US Navy Reserve for using cocaine last year, to head a kleptocratic energy company in Ukraine under the junta government.

History http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/10/22/the_hunter_biden_chronicles_124381.html .
 
Possibility of Being said:
There will be wild speculations and gossip and things are not black and white, not anymore if they ever had been. I personally don't think that Strelkov's or Mozgovoy's idea to go on Kiev was a good one and I hope it won't happen. They and those of the same or close ideology seem suffer from some kind of myopia expecting from Putin to come and save them. Things look differently when one has to keep a much bigger picture in mind - or so I think.

I think so, too. And what the bigger picture looks like I don't know. It likely, like chess, contains such a massive assortment of moves and counter moves.

Speaking of moves:

Gorbachev Foundation urges ‘new Perestroika’ to save Russia (2015/5/28) http://rt.com/politics/262649-russia-perestroika-gorbachev-foundation/

The U.S. based Gorbachev NGO stated (which he is still the captain of):

The Gorbachev Foundation warns that if the maintaining of the current tendencies in times of globalization would lead to Russia chronically lagging behind. “All attempts to ignore the norms, institutes and procedures based on democratic values would lead to a deep destabilization of the whole political system,” it adds.

"Destabilizing" indeed. Destabilization is the West's creed, their bread and butter. Nevertheless, in the closing statement (bottom of the article):

The latest opinion polls demonstrate that the overwhelming majority of the Russian public supports the current course of the authorities. Research conducted by independent pollster Levada this month reads that 86 percent of Russians approve of Vladimir Putin’s activities as Russian president. Sixty-two percent of respondents named Putin as their most-trusted politician.

So, "lagging behind" what exactly? A western system that is morally and economically bankrupt. Russia puling away from such a western failure is the most sane action they could take under the circumstances (and hopefully people in Ukraine will see this also as reality), cause if they don't, western globalization will do its very best to ensure Russia (and those around her) will be fractured deeply - thankfully, the Russian people have seen those cards before and know the game, osit.
 
Some more interesting material on Saker's blog worth perusing.

Situation Report (some very funny remarks):
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-sitrep-may-28th-2015-by-scott/

Article about China by someone who's visited often and has family there:
http://thesaker.is/voices-from-the-middle-kingdom/

Article by Michael Hudson about the economy and labor conditions in the Ukraine:
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-labor-protests/

SouthFront video (Foreign Policy):
http://thesaker.is/foreign-policy-diary-from-southfront/

Saker rant about the arrests of FIFA officials:
http://thesaker.is/anglozionists-1-world-0-final-score/

Video report about the Transnistria blockage and provocations:
http://thesaker.is/transnistria-blockade-of-tiraspol/
 
Just thought I'd post some more interesting Saker blog posts I read this morning and kept the tabs open to post here.

Video of Napoleon's invasion of Russia (video kept hanging up, so haven't watched it all):
http://thesaker.is/patriotic-war-of-1812-french-invasion-of-russia-southfront-video/

Saker interviews an ex-GRU Speznas officer:
http://thesaker.is/saker-interview-with-ramzes-a-spetsnaz-gru-officer/

SouthFront video:
http://thesaker.is/28-29-05-2015-crisis-news/

Good Situation Report:
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-sitrep-may-29th-2015-by-raskolnikova/

And another SouthFront video report:
http://thesaker.is/29-05-2015-crisis-news-2/
 
Fugitive Georgian ex-president Saakashvili will be apointed by Porkishenko as Governor of Odessa:
http://rt.com/news/263337-ukraine-saakashvili-odessa-governor/ said:
The Ukrainian cabinet of ministers has nominated the former president of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili, who has been placed on an international wanted list in his own country, as the governor of Ukraine’s coastal Odessa region.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko was set to meet Saakashvili on Friday to approve his candidacy for the post before officially announcing the appointment, according to the presidential press-secretary Svyatoslav Tsegolko.

The fugitive Georgian leader has already been granted Ukrainian citizenship, which makes him legally eligible for the post, according to Ukrainian journalist-turned-MP Sergey Leshchenko, who also confirmed Saakashvili’s appointment as Odessa governor.

Former Georgian President #Saakashvili successfully got Ukrainian citizenship on Friday. Micho, we want new Batumi there!

— Leshchenko (@Leshchenkos) May 29, 2015

Saakashvili has been a long-standing supporter of the current Ukrainian authorities ever since they ended up heading the coup that eventually toppled the previous administration in February 2014. Earlier in May he was appointed to President Poroshenko’s advisory council on reform, along with the hawkish anti-Russian US Senator John McCain who chose to decline the offer...

Also i found this link on Saker's site, don't know about the reliability of it:
U.S. PressuresNobel Committee to Declare Ukraine’s President a Peace Prize Nominee, Leaked Letter:
A leaked letter dated May 19th and sent by the Chairman of Ukraine’s parliament, Vladimir Groysman, to the chargé d’affaires of the U.S. Embassy in Oslo Norway, thanks her for “the efforts you have made to have Petro Oleksiyovych Poroshenko nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize,” but continues: “Still we consider your assurances of support by the two members of the Nobel Committee as insufficient,” because there are five members of the Committee, and the support of 3 of them is necessary.

Thus,

“We expect further efforts aimed at shifting the position of Berit Reiss-Andersen, Inger-Marie Ytterhorn and especially that of the Chair of the Nobel Committee Kaci Kullman Five. Regarding the latter, we recommend that you take advantage of the information you are going to receive from Germany. Your colleagues in Berlin have assured us that the dossier will soon be delivered to the U.S. Embassy in Oslo.It is of utmost importance for Mr. Poroshenko to have firm guarantees that he will be awarded the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize, since it could highlight the unanimous support of Ukrainian integrity by the democratic community of the world. Assistant Secretary of State Viktoria Nuland has highly estimated your job during her visit to Kyiv.”
 
Two SITREPS from Saker's blog:

http://thesaker.is/ukraine-sitrep-may-30th-by-duff/

(This is a weekly one covering the last week or more; but there may be some stories some haven't seen either on SOTT or other sites - it's also quite long):
http://thesaker.is/sitrep-for-31st-may-by-baaz/
 
Some interesting material.

This one seems to be describing something that's been ongoing in human "history":
http://thesaker.is/isil-kievs-nazis-and-the-rage-against-history/

Video about a family caught in the shelling in DNR (good to share and make it spread):
http://thesaker.is/family-suffered-from-the-punishers-shelling-gorlovka-dnr/

SouthFront Video:
http://thesaker.is/novorossia-awareness-southfront-video/

By Saker about Saakashvili's appointment as Governor of Odessa and the situation in Transnistria:
http://thesaker.is/from-odessa-to-transnistria-will-crazy-misha-start-another-war/

SITREP:
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-sitrep-june-1st-by-duff/

Another SouthFront video report:
http://thesaker.is/1-06-2015-crisis-news/
 
new report of the UN high commission for Human rights - accusing both sites of violations (stressing though the ones done by LPR and DPR) - accussing Russia for abuse in Crimea and no mention of abuses in the rest of Ukraine. Despite some veneer of objectivity biased.

PERSISTENT AND GRAVE HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS IN SPITE OF RELATIVE CALM IN EASTERN UKRAINE – HIGH COMMISSIONER ZEID


GENEVA (1 June 2015) – A new report issued today by the United Nations Human Rights Office details the serious human rights violations and abuses that persist in eastern Ukraine, including shelling, executions, arbitrary and illegal detentions, torture, ill-treatment, human trafficking and the lack of justice and accountability, as well as deprivation of economic and social rights, that are deeply affecting the five million people living in the conflict-affected areas.

The tenth report by the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, which covers the period from 16 February to 15 May 2015, states that there has been a notable decrease in indiscriminate shelling after the adoption of the 12 February Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements. However, the shelling has not stopped, nor have armed hostilities between Ukrainian armed forces and armed groups, meaning that civilians continue to live in fear. Civilian casualties from landmines and unexploded ordnance are still considerable.

“While some areas in the conflict zone have remained calm, such as the city of Luhansk, others have become the scenes of escalating hostilities since 11 April. The vicinity of Donetsk airport and the contested village of Shyrokyne in the Donetsk region remained the major flashpoints where heavy weapons were intensively used. Reports of sophisticated heavy weaponry and fighters being supplied from the Russian Federation persisted,” the report notes.

Between mid-April 2014 and 30 May 2015, at least 6,417* people, including at least 626 women and girls, have been documented as killed and 15,962* as wounded in the conflict zone of eastern Ukraine. This is a conservative estimate and the actual numbers could be considerably higher.

“Serious human rights abuses, intimidation and harassment of the local population perpetrated by the armed groups continued to be reported. The [monitoring mission] received new allegations of killings, torture and ill-treatment, as well as cases of illegal deprivation of liberty, forced labour, looting, ransom demands and extortion of money on the territories controlled by the armed groups,” the report states.

“Even with the decrease in hostilities, civilians continue to be killed and wounded,” High Commissioner Zeid stressed. “We have documented alarming reports of summary executions by armed groups and are looking into similar allegations against Ukrainian armed forces. We also have horrific accounts of torture and ill-treatment in detention, both by armed groups and Ukrainian law enforcers.”

The impact of the conflict on the economic and social rights of civilians continues to be dramatic, the report states, adding that “the interruption of access to basic services is life-threatening and can have a life-long impact on a large portion of the population, hindering the post-conflict recovery of the society.” The difficult economic situation has also led to a worrying, increased risk in human trafficking.

Residents of the territories controlled by the armed groups continued to be increasingly isolated from the rest of Ukraine and suffer from a lack of protection in the absence of the rule of law. The situation of the most vulnerable, particularly older people, individuals with disabilities, families with children and people in institutional care, is particularly dire, with many of them having no source of income or being deprived of access to basic social services. The permit system introduced by Ukrainian authorities continues to significantly limit the freedom of movement across the contact line, putting lives at risk. Those seeking to obtain permits can face corrupt practices and long delays.

The report also highlights the lack of justice and accountability for violations that occurred during the Maidan protests more than a year ago, during which at least 117 people died and more than 2,295 were wounded. Similarly, no one has yet been prosecuted in relation to the violence of 2 May 2014 in Odesa.

The situation in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea** remains worrying, characterized by human rights violations committed by the de facto authorities applying the laws of the Russian Federation. The report notes that arrests, ill-treatment, torture and intimidation continue to be perpetrated against political opponents, primarily in the Crimean Tatar community, with the knowledge or participation of ‘law enforcement’ or affiliated groups. Legal safeguards for detainees are all but absent. The exercise of the rights to freedom of expression, assembly and religion is mostly limited to groups or individuals loyal to the de facto authorities. Administrative measures, including registration requirements, are used as control mechanisms and tools to prevent the spread of dissenting views.

“Millions of ordinary women, men and children in Ukraine have suffered tremendous hardship, violence and have been living in fear for more than a year now,” the High Commissioner said. “Too many have had their homes and livelihoods destroyed and their lives torn apart, with no sign of justice, accountability, compensation or redress.”

“I urge all parties involved in the hostilities to seek common ground, through sustained dialogue, to fully implement the 12 February Package of Measures, to end the fighting, and to ensure that all violations of human rights and international humanitarian law are investigated, regardless of the perpetrators,” the High Commissioner said.


* Figures marked with an asterisk have been updated beyond the period covered by the report. The casualty figures are estimated by OHCHR and WHO.

** The status of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is prescribed by General Assembly resolution 68/262

To read the full report, please visit: http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/UA/10thOHCHRreportUkraine.pdf
 
Some new posts at Saker's blog.

SITREP:
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-sitrep-june-2d-by-raskolnikova/

SouthFront video:
http://thesaker.is/2-06-2015-crisis-news/

Video report:
http://thesaker.is/special-report-shirokino-frontline/

Lavrov's interview with Bloomberg:
http://thesaker.is/sergey-lavrov-interview-to-bloomberg-tv/
 
sitting said:
After crude and ruble hovered at the 60 and 50 level ... the combination moved. Against the prevailing trend. Presently it's 58-52.

This may simply be a modest correction, but it could also mean a potential reversal of trend.

An update:

Dollar ruble presently at 54. Enough to suggest a reversal of trend may be happening.

Interestingly, it comes on heel of a lengthy article on Sott, announcing utter failure of the destablizing effort. These sure fire comments are generally taken in the trading community as turning points. Contrarian signals they call them.

I had said something similar a month ago, but at more favorable levels--and without absolute finality. I've been burned sufficient times in real life to know better.

This currency trend change (if it does continue), means the situation can get a lot more complicated. In financial sector AND on the ground. Money often leads events.

FWIW.
 
A good SITREP (also some updates and additional info / links in the comments, so might be worth glancing at those too):
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-sitrep-june-3rd-2015-by-scott/

And RT's CrossTalk:
http://thesaker.is/crosstalk-what-crisis-very-good-show/
 
article on the website Russian Defense policy - a blog discussing russian military affairs; The title 'how the third world war begins' is deceptive as the article, much more interesting, deals with the state of the Russian army. In contrast with many media boosting about the great state of the Russian army, this author is rather alarmed about it's possibility to act. If this assessment is close to the reality then the ' gain time' strategy of the Russian can be seen in another light: one that is mandatory. It would also add to the unclarity of how much this all is a staged event on the global agenda.

https://russiandefpolicy.wordpress.com/2015/03/24/how-the-third-world-war-begins/

How the Third World War Begins
Posted on March 24, 2015 |

What would happen if the U.S. and some NATO allies decided to intervene in eastern Ukraine by supplying Kyiv with arms or by sending their own troops to the front lines? Mikhail Khodarenok has tried to answer this question, and provides much-needed tonic for Western observers wowed by the Kremlin’s “surprise” exercises since 2013. He is a conservative critic of the Russian MOD leadership and post-Soviet military “reforms” up to Sergey Shoygu’s tenure.

Khodarenok argues against allowing Russian forces to be drawn into an escalating conflict because ill-conceived and continual “optimization” has left them unprepared for a conventional war against the West.

Khodarenok is editor-in-chief of Voyenno-promyshlennyy kuryer or VPK. He’s a retired colonel, professional air defender, General Staff Academy grad, and former staffer of the General Staff’s Main Operations Directorate. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, he was an outstanding military journalist for Nezavisimoye voyennoye obozreniye, but by 2003 or 2004, he left for VPK.

His latest for VPK is interesting, and follows in its entirety.

Script for the Third World War

One has to repeat yet again: statements, from time to time voiced by ultraliberal Russian politicians like “the problem has no military solution” and “all wars end in peace,” have no relationship to reality. Wars end only one way — a crushing defeat for some and brilliant victory for others. If the phrase “there is no military solution” appears, this means that one of the parties to the conflict simply has no strength for the victorious conclusion of the war. And if some armed confrontation ends like a draw, it is so perhaps because of the complete exhaustion of military capabilities on both sides. Of course, there are possible variants with some very minor deviations from this general line.
Begin with the immediate and future tasks of the parties to the conflict in the south-east Ukraine.

For the Kiev leadership the immediate, and future, and enduring goal for the historically foreseeable future is only one thing: restoration of the territorial integrity of the country by any means, primarily military ones. The strategic mission is to wipe the armed formations of the south-east from the face of the earth. Waiting for negotiations, for changes in the constitution of Ukraine in the right way for the unrecognized patches of territories, for federalization of the south-east — all this is from the realm exclusively of suppositions and imaginary games. Carthage (i.e. the separatist south-east) must be destroyed — and this thesis, without any doubt, will be dominant in all Ukrainian foreign and domestic policy. To hold other views today among the [Maydan] Square elite means immediate political suicide. Still Kiev doesn’t have the forces and means to solve the problem militarily. But this doesn’t at all signify the Ukrainian leadership’s refusal of a policy of crushing the south-east by military means.
It’s necessary to say directly that, on the whole, the external and internal political missions of Ukraine in the south-east are clear and logical.
It’s more complicated with the unrecognized south-east. Everything here is much foggier. It’s possible to demand self-determination for these territories, but what then? How can people live on this piece of land if it is practically impossible to guarantee the economic, financial and any other independence for the south-east (or more precisely, two torn off and extremely curvy pieces of Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts)? Demanding federalization is also theoretically permissible, but official Kiev will never, under any circumstances, grant it. Return to [Maydan] Square? But so much blood has already been shed, the scale of destruction of the region’s infrastructure is simply astonishing, and the gulf between the parties to the conflict is so great that this is hardly possible without subsequent pogroms and mass shootings of insurgents by Ukraine’s central government. In general, a complete zugzwang — what to do is not clear to anyone, and the next move can only worsen the situation. It seems that the political line of the south-east, in these circumstances, can be only one thing — hiding behind a verbal veil and temporizing. And then, maybe, something will happen.

In this regard, it doesn’t due to forget one important circumstance. In predicting the future, futurists of all stripes mainly use the very same method. From the point of view of a representative of anti-aircraft missile troops, as the author was in the past, — this is the hypothesis of a rectilinear and uniform motion target. A significant part of the forecasts is based on this postulate.

But there is the “Black Swan” theory. Its author — Nassim Nicholas Taleb, wrote about it in the book “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. ” The theory considers difficult to predict and rare events that involve significant consequences.

In other words, it is impossible to describe the processes of the real world with only mathematics, employing even the most advanced models. From a certain point anything and everything can go contrary to predictions, extremely askew. It seems that the unspoken political line of the south-east — to wait is built on this. And then it will become apparent. Is it good or bad — only time will tell.
Today in the south-east of Ukraine a cease-fire regime is in effect. But all parties to the conflict seem to realize that this is not the end, but rather only a pause before the summer campaign.
We now turn to hypothetical scenarios of the developing situation in the south-east of Ukraine (we emphasize — scenarios exclusively from the realm of hypotheses and assumptions).
How does the war in the south-east present itself from the point of view of military art? Essentially, two Soviet armies are fighting. One is a 1991 model (it is the armed forces of Ukraine), the other is a somewhat modernized version of the same Soviet army — better trained in an operational-tactical sense, manned by more competent specialists, and commanded better. And the armed confrontation is currently playing out solely on the ground — with only the forces of combined arms units and sub-units. The south-east doesn’t have its own air forces, and Ukraine’s — formerly small — air forces have gradually dwindled to nothing in the course of the conflict. Practically no serviceable aircraft and trained pilots remain for the [Maydan] Square. Volunteers for the south-east on their TO&E air defense equipment helped the development of such a situation a lot. Sometimes vacationers in their planes acted fairly quietly and unnoticed for the same purpose. But from the point of view of military art, the armed confrontation in the south-east is all just a somewhat modernized variant of World War II in its final stage. Neither this nor that side has identified new weapons and military equipment or new techniques and methods of conducting armed warfare.
As is well-known, volunteer-vacationers are fighting on the side of the south-east. With their TO&E weapons as a rule. But now suppose such a variant (again, purely hypothetical, why not), that volunteers and vacationers from the USA and Western Europe began to arrive in the ranks of the armed forces of Ukraine, also with their TO&E weapons.
Let’s begin with the air forces. Suppose F-15, F-16, F-22, A-10, “Panavia Tornado,” E-8A, E-3A began landing on the airfields of Kharkov, Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye. Previous identification markings and side numbers painted over, and marked in their place is the trident and yellow-blue banners of Ukraine. Prior to this, many flights to Ukrainian airbases delivered fuel and the most modern aviation weapons.
Three CSGs (carrier strike groups) are deployed on the Black Sea coast of Bulgaria which has prostituted itself politically for the past 140 years. The typical composition of each is one nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, two-three guided missile cruisers, three-four guided missile destroyers, three-four nuclear-powered attack submarines.
Armored and mechanized divisions of volunteers from the West outfitted with “Abrams,” “Leopard,” “Leclerc” tanks, “Marder” and “Bradley” BMPs, modern artillery are unloaded in the area of Mariupol, Pavlograd, Izyum, and Lozove.
In addition, we should make note of the volunteer units and sub-units (also manned by vacationers from the USA and Western Europe), electronic warfare, communications, unmanned aerial vehicles and so on, and so on. Do not forget also about the volunteer logistics and technical support units, without which modern war is unthinkable.
Now a question. How long would the armed formations of the south-east hold out if a qualitatively different enemy entered the war, if a hail of modern aviation weapons — anti-bunker bombs, laser- and satellite-guided bombs, air- and sea-based cruise missiles showered down on LNR and DNR formations and units? If the order-of-battle were attacked by the newest armored combat vehicles and artillery? And the action of all this military splendor was supported by American intelligence of all types which has not even a close analogue in the world? And the planes of the volunteers of the West chase after every BMP, gun, and tank of the units and formations of the south-east, separately bomb every trench, firing point, and mortar position taken. And destroy the target with margins commensurate with the size of the trench itself.
We’ll repeat the question: how long can the armed formations of the south-east hold out? A day? Two? A week? The answer is unfortunately: several hours would be good.
Of course, the elder comrades — the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation — of the volunteers of the south-east can support them. And precisely at this moment — please get shaved(1) — the Third World War has begun.
Such a version of events is the crystal dream of the current Ukrainian leadership. But Anglo-Saxon blood is too dear to shed for the future happiness of some half-wild Ukrainians. Therefore, such a version of developing events is still to be assessed as the game of a warmed-over imagination.
And if you still continue to fantasize and try to imagine how the development of such a conflict in the South-West Strategic Direction [YuZSN] might look, if all interested sides take part in it under this or that flag.
We say directly — the success of armed confrontation employing only conventional weapons is obvious in this case. It certainly will be on the side of the West. Unfortunately, the modern Russian Army is still less than qualitatively different from its Soviet predecessor of the 1991 model. And there is not very much of the latest weaponry, meeting the highest demands of the XXI century, in it.
For example, at this time, we do not have a single operational large formation [объединение] of the air forces (which by the way are no longer themselves a service of the Armed Forces), equipped with modern aircraft with supplies of the newest aviation weapons for the conduct of at least 30 days of combat actions.
The Black Sea Fleet today, to our great regret, is a branch of the Central Naval Museum. On the ships of the BSF it would be possible to study the history of Soviet shipbuilding in the 1960-1970s.
Yes, and combined arms formations and units, if you collected everything that is on the territory of the former SKVO(2), you would get not more than 1.5 army corps (by Western standards). You clearly couldn’t form a 1st Ukrainian Front from the available set of forces and resources. There are no operational reserves on the district’s territory. That is, the formations and units clearly do not have the strength for operational-strategic missions on the YuZSN.
To understand the sharpness of the situation, let’s add just one thing: if there are four-six specialized EW aircraft on every American carrier, then we don’t have a single similar aircraft in our entire air forces.
One should note still one more very important point — the operational outfitting of theater of military actions in the South-West Strategic Direction hardly meets the tasks of conducting combat actions successfully. The airfield network, the quantity and quality of roads and railways far from fully meet the demands of pursuing armed confrontation. It suffices to note that some railroads pass through the territory of Ukraine, and the famous quadrangle in which there are generally no railways lies precisely on the YuZSN. In a word, the first railroad parallel to the front line goes through Ukraine, and the next — only through Volgograd. And as is well-known, where the railway ends, and so ends the war.
As for the quartering of formations, units, and sub-units of the RF Armed Forces on the YuZSN, they are located mainly in the dispositions of the Soviet-era North Caucasus Military District. In those days, this district was deep in the rear with a small set of reduced-strength and cadre units and formations. The situation in this respect has changed a little since 1991. But now the neighboring country of the district with the most militant and anti-Russian mood is modern Ukraine.
A fully legitimate question arises: what did you do the last 20 years? This period in the life of the Russian Armed Forces awaits its impartial historian. Still one can say the following concisely. All force in the 1990s and 2000s, maybe, went into continuous organizational-staffing measures(3). Meaning: form, then disband the very same, then restore it, disband it again, but incidentally with the aims exclusively of optimizing and improving the organizational structure, zeroize military science and education, cut military academies to the root under the well-meaning pretext of relocating them, scatter valuable cadres in the course of continuous cuts and reformations. Just two words — “reform” and “optimization” — in their harmful effect on the life of the Armed Forces are comparable, perhaps, only with the consequences of delivering a series of MRAUs (massed missile-air strikes).
Perhaps, if we look at the matter critically, nothing qualitatively new was created (in any case this is debatable). We have essentially marked time for more than 20 years, while other countries have made a breakthrough in military affairs. If any positive trend has been noted, then it is only with the arrival of Sergey Shoygu in the Ministry of Defense.
And somebody should be responsible for it — at least in terms of an objective analysis of the situation. Let’s examine try the defense ministers in recent years – from Pavel Grachev to Anatoliy Serdyukov.
Which of them could be called “a prominent builder of the Armed Forces of modern Russia?” Or write the line in their performance appraisal: “A talented military theorist, who made a significant contribution to strengthening the defense power of the state?” Finally, he “developed, established, introduced, and adopted weapons into the arms inventory?”
Try to include the following lines in their testimonials:
“Extraordinary concentration, inquisitive mind, analytical skills, ability to make correct, forward-looking conclusions;”
“Creative mind and a remarkable memory, ability to quickly grasp a situation, to foresee the development of events;”
“Has a rich combat experience, broad erudition, high operational-strategic training, gave all his strength to the training and education of military personnel, to the development of military science;”
“Distinguished by deep knowledge of matters, persistent daily work, high culture and personal manners;”
“Dedication to affairs, high professionalism, intelligence.”
Having presented a line on the [MOD] leaders noted above, we can say — almost nothing suits, however. Or its suits, but not much. In the best case, all the enumerated persons were occupied with only one thing — “merge-unmerge,” and then cut. But court of history is impartial — no matter how so-and-so puffed out his cheeks or furrowed his eyebrows in the past, it is not at all the generals for special assignments from his inner circle who will write his testimonial for him.
By way of conclusion. What do Russia’s Armed Forces do in the event of such a development of the conflict? Threaten to use tactical nuclear weapons? Meaning: if you do not stop, we will strike at Ukrainian nuclear power plants, chemical facilities, the series of hydroelectric power stations on the Dnieper River in order to create a flood zone and destruction. But this, as is well-known, is a double-edged sword. And there are not so many long-range tactical nuclear weapons delivery vehicles. After all, with our own hands we destroyed the class of missiles most needed for the defense of the country — RSMD(4).
Of course, all the above described and enumerated is no more than speculation, fantasies, and hypotheses.
But there can be only one exit from the Ukrainian crisis — under no circumstances should the Russian Federation Armed Forces be allowed to be dragged into the conflict in the south-east. Our country, the army and navy, needs to note objectively that we are still not ready for large-scale armed confrontation employing only conventional weapons. If you sort out all the criteria of the state’s readiness for war (Armed Forces training, preparation of the country’s economy, the preparation of the country’s territory to support the RF Armed Forces, preparing the population for defense), then most of them have very substantial problems.
And it’s necessary to strengthen the country’s defense capability at a forced (downright Bolshevik) tempo, and create Russian Armed Forces which meet the highest standards of modern warfare. And the first thing is to stop the nervous organizational-staffing(3) delirium.
A post-script to Khodarenok’s opus: where does he leave us?
A frozen conflict [a draw — to use his term] is, of course, a win for the Kremlin. At least through the medium term.
If the West intervened militarily in the conflict as Khodarenok hypothesizes, both sides would have to make dangerous decisions about working up the conventional escalation ladder. Moscow might conceivably back away from eastern Ukraine if given a serious bloody nose. Along the way, the U.S. and EU might also go “nuclear” economically by revoking Russia’s membership in the SWIFT international money transfer system.
But if, as Khodarenok suggests, the West trumps conventionally, Moscow could consider a game-changing resort to nuclear weapons. With probably only messy endings in store for him anyway, Putin might have fewer compunctions here than the U.S. or NATO. He would have fewer choices too — escalate again or lose the war (and his grip on power). Would Russian military men be willing to use nuclear weapons over eastern Ukraine or to save Putin?
There is, of course, an alternative more likely to be chosen by the West: Cold War-style containment of eastern Ukraine and Russia. It’s a less dangerous, but slow and frustrating process placing much of the burden of nation-state building on pro-Kyiv Ukrainians themselves and on the West’s willingness to finance the emergence of a viable country in contrast to the Russian-backed statelets in the east. However, this long road is open everywhere to Russian meddling, and frontline NATO allies would require lots of tangible reassurance.
Whatever the policy course, it isn’t clear to this author that the U.S. and the West possess the same fortitude to pursue it that they did in the 1940s and 1950s. They don’t have the same cohesion in decisionmaking. Not many are willing to view what happens in Ukraine as a top policy concern. The U.S. is tired and distracted. Putin’s Kremlin, however, has already defined Ukraine as an immediate and vital interest.
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(1) Refers to Alexander the Great having his men shave before battle.
(2) North Caucasus Military District.
(3) A term used in the Russian workplace for reorganizations entailing closure of some entities, establishment of new ones, physical relocations, and personnel transfers and cuts.
(4) Medium and shorter range missiles — covered by the INF Treaty.
 
SouthFront video:
http://thesaker.is/foreign-policy-diary-turkey-rising-of-the-threat/

Another good SITREP:
http://thesaker.is/ukraine-sitrep-june-4s-2015-by-scott/

Another SouthFront video:
http://thesaker.is/4-06-2015-military-report-of-novorossia/

One take on the latest fighting:
http://thesaker.is/what-really-happened-in-marinka-truce-not-over-yet-but-getting-eroded-just-like-before/

Saker's take:
http://thesaker.is/short-update-about-the-very-dangerous-ukrainian-situation/
 
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