Civil War in Ukraine: Western Empire vs Russia

[Minas Tirith]

Yes, and/or maybe they are "disintegrating" as well :/
Bear, your option definitely sounds scary.

Reminds me a little of Hitler glossing everything over with the War, suddenly the economy was great again and people too busy to think about what was actually happening ...

M.T.

 

[Approaching Infinity]

The Saker's analysis of the current Kiev vs. E. Ukraine situation is pretty interesting:

(Now up on SOTT: http://www.sott.net/article/277950-The-US-plan-for-the-Ukraine-a-hypothesis-Forcing-Russias-hand-to-intervene)

Listening to Lavrov today I came to the conclusion that the regime in Kiev was indeed about to try to attack the eastern Ukraine. It's not only Lavrov, the Russian Internet is on "red alert" and chock-full of rumors and speculation about an imminent attack. This begs a number of questions:

1) Why would the junta in Kiev so overtly renege on the Geneva agreement?
2) Why would it attack when the chances of success are very small?
3) Why would they attack know that Russia would almost certainly intervene?
4) Why is the US clearly behind that strategy?

I have a hypothesis which I would like to submit to your attention.

First, the junta in Kiev is reneging on the Geneva agreement simply because it cannot abide by its terms. Remember, the junta is composed of a few politicians handpicked by the US and a few Ukrainian oligarchs. They do have money, but no power. How could they possibly impose anything in the well-armed and determined freaks of the Right Sector?

Second, the eastern Ukraine is lost no matter what. So the junta in Kiev have to pick on of the following options:

a) Let the eastern Ukraine leave by means of referendum and do nothing about it.
b) Let the eastern Ukraine leave but only after some violence.
c) Let the eastern Ukraine leave following a Russian military intervention.

Clearly, option 'a' is by far the worst. Option 'b' is so-so, but option 'c' is very nice. Think of it: this option will make it look like Russia invaded the Eastern Ukraine and that the people there had no say about it. It will also make the rest of the Ukraine rally around the flag. The economic disaster will be blamed on Russia and the Presidential election of May 25th can be canceled due to the Russian "threat". Not only that, but a war - no matter how silly - is the *perfect* pretext to introduce martial law which can be used to crack down on the Right Sector or anybody expressing views the junta does not like. That is an old trick - trigger a war and people will rally around the regime in power. Create a panic, and people will forget the real issues.

As for the USA - it also knows that the Eastern Ukraine is gone. With Crimea and Eastern Ukraine gone - the Ukraine has exactly *zero* value to the Empire, to why not simply use it as a way to create a new Cold War, something which would be much more sexy that the Global War on Terror or the really old War on Drugs. After all, if Russia is forced to intervene militarily NATO will have to send reinforcements to "protect" countries like Poland or Latvia just in case Putin decides to invade all of the EU.

Bottom line - the freaks in power in Kiev and the USA *know* that the eastern Ukraine is lost for them, and the purpose of the imminent attack is not to "win" against the Russian-speaking rebels or, even less so, to "win" against the Russian military, it is to trigger enough violence to force Russia to intervene. In other words, since the East is lost anyways, it is much better to lose it to the "invading Russian hordes" than to lose it to the local civilian population.

So the purpose of the next attack will not be to win, but to lose. That the Ukrainian military can still do.

Two things can happen to foil this plan:

1) The Ukrainian military might refuse to obey such clearly criminal orders (and becoming a target of the Russian military might help some officers make the correct "purely moral" choice).
2) The local resistance might be strong enough to draw out such an operation and have to come to a grinding halt.

Ideally, a combination of both.

From the Russian point of view things are rather simple: it is infinitely better for Russia to have the East break away without any Russian intervention. If the attacking force is crazy enough to use armor, artillery or airpower, the Russian could decide to strike from the air without actually sending in ground forces. They could also use electronic warfare capabilities to further create chaos inside the attacking force. Limited pinpoint attacks could also serve to demoralize the attacking force. What Russia has to avoid all costs to find itself forced to engage in offensive urban operations which are always dangerous and bloody. It is therefore absolutely essential the the locals take control of their own streets, villages and cities.

Lavrov today delivered a very direct warning: if things go out of hand in the eastern Ukraine Russia will intervene. Hopefully somebody in the West will finally realize that the Russians are never bluffing and that they really mean it. I am not very optimistic though - if Lavrov felt the need to make a full 30min interview in English in which he clearly compared the situation in the Ukraine today to the one in Ossetia in 08.08.08 it is probably because the Russians have intelligence indicating that an attack is imminent.

We shall know very soon.

The Saker

_http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-us-plan-for-ukraine-hypothesis.html

Apparently The Saker is an ex-military analyst. Here's his response to a poster:

@Anonymous:direct quotes from a Putin speech/TV presentation or interview from last Thursday (n.b: I have not verified the accuracy of the direct quotes). Would appreciate your thoughts/analysis on the thesis of the post, especially on Putin's comments (e.g. "“As for me, you know that the decisions we take in a critical situation depend on our experience and values. You know that I worked for the Soviet Union’s KGB, or, more precisely, foreign intelligence, where we were trained in a specific manner that boils down to absolute loyalty to people and the country.”).

First, I can confirm the quote. He said that during his 4 hour long Q&A with the Russian people on TV/radio/Internet. Second, yes, you bet this sentence also did strike me. But you absolutely have to keep in mind that if the KGB was the elite of the Soviet Union, the external intelligence service (called the PGU KGB SSSR) was the elite of the KGB. Also, notice that Putin speaks of absolute loyalty to the people and country and not to the CPSU or the Marxist-Leninist ideology. The PGU officers were the best informed people in the country, often the most intelligent too, and they saw it all happening long before anybody else. I know the PGU rather well because I spent years fighting it in my private life (I was a very busy anti-Soviet activist), years studying it in my professional life (as a military analysts) and after 1991 I met a lot of my ex-opponents, retired and even active duty, some of which became my friends. I can assure you that what Putin says is true, most PGU officers were very patriotic, but I also assure you that a lot of them fully understood how corrupt and cynical the Soviet system had become. Most of these guys were not brain dead propagandized automatons who would blindly believe all the nonsense which the Soviet propaganda would spew at them. They served their country not because of the regime in power, but in spite of it. You probably know Ray McGovern who is ex-CIA, but who is a patriot. That is what a lot of PGU officers were like in the 1980s and 1990s. Putin was truthful in his reply.

 

[Siberia]

Things don't look good right now - moving closer to war of some kind, just from reading the last few posts at http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/.

Yes, you are right, Bear. Thanks for the links.

Russia is just one tiny step from war (or military operation) at the moment: it is being claimed clearly and openly on ALL Russian TV channels and other media sources today. Massive Russian military units are gathered at the Ukrainian border. If the Ukrainian military continue killing protesters, Russia is ready to respond.

BTW, have you noticed that last time when Ukraine started killing protesters was immediately after CIA Head Brennan's visit to Ukraine, and this time it happened immediately after Joe Biden's visit to Ukraine? What a coincidence!

I just hope that they will find peaceful solution anyway.

 

[Anthony]

I can't even image what the cosmos could send hurdling down
if the whole situation escalates. These are definitely not the times
to be playing games.

 

[thorbiorn]

Things don't look good right now - moving closer to war of some kind, just from reading the last few posts at http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/ Besides the US and West in general being run by psychopaths, etc and war being profitable I was thinking that there may be a bigger reason the US seems to want confrontation:

The scary thing when you look at the bigger picture is that US and the bankrupt West in general may be mad enough to push for a wider war due to what they possibly face economically and financially. If the West is truly running out of Gold (see link below) that has been swallowed up in recent years by China and others but the process has kept the system in check and kept it from fully collapsing, then they may want a wider war to cover the inevitable big economic problems.

[...]

War of some kind is possible.
Around 9/11 there was the Pentagon had 2.3 trillion not accounted for:
_http://www.sott.net/article/232915-9-10-2001-Rumsfeld-says-2-3-TRILLION-Missing-from-Pentagon and The talk about that vanished with the noise of 9/11. Now, the US Government is in much more serious financial troubles. To move the attention with another war is certainly an option.

With respect to strategies, it is strange that Obama in late march told Georgia, to the disappointment of President Giorgi Margvelashvili _http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=27089 , that NATO membership wasn't imminent. Strange indeed, because at about the same time NATO expressed a wish for stronger ties with former Soviet republics like Azerbaijan, Armenia and Moldova _http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/01/nato-plans-stronger-military-ties-armenia-azerbaijan-moldova.

Here is a bit more about these countries:

About Azerbaijan _http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijani_Armed_Forces It turns out they are members of the non-alignment movement but so is Belarus, which for all practical purposes is more aligned with Russia! Azerbaijan has quite a bit of cooperation with NATO countries as can be found on _http://en.wikipedia.org/so have quitewiki/Azerbaijani_Armed_Forces#Turkey

Armenia has has held meetings recently _http://www.natoinfo.am/en/news/183/ but a few days earlier they decided not to expand cooperation, but this was perhaps prompted by a leaked document _http://www.natoinfo.am/en/news/178/ which said:

Armenia is not going to expand the formats of cooperation with NATO.

Armenian Foreign Ministry’s official representative Tigran Balayan told ITAR-TASS commenting on the publications on the plans of strengthening of Armenia-NATO military cooperation.

“We have definite formats of cooperation with NATO. We’re not going to expand or change them”, said Tigran Balayan.

NATO has drawn up plans to strengthen military co-operation with Armenia and Azerbaijan, Guardian writed yesterday referring to Spiegel magazine which got a leaked confidential seven-page paper worked out for the of Foreign Ministers of NATO member states in Brussels.

The paper proposed military training for Armenia and projects in Azerbaijan aimed at securing its Caspian Sea oil and gas fields.

The document also suggests holding of joint exercises with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Moldova aimed at increasing the interoperability of their militaries with NATO, and their participation in NATO “smart defense” operations.

Moldova was mentioned above but Moldova is apparently neutral _http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_and_Moldova but according to _http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49727.htm they have contributed to the NATO led mission in Kosovo - so much for neutrality!

What I learned in a video that I posted on page 45 is, that Azerbaijan and its neigbours are very strategically located. Therefore with the former southern republics enrolled in some kind of a NATO cooperation, NATO/US can open up a multi front theater with respect to Russia, and as recent events have shown that may be the option they would like to pursue.

 

[angelburst29]

This doesn't look too good :/

CNN trying to explain to its viewers today WHY the US is taking part in this, and I am sure quite a few Americans wonder why the US is fussing around there in person at all:

Looks like The New York Times is having it's problems explaining "things" as well?

New York Times propaganda photos on Ukraine exposed
_http://rinf.com/alt-news/latest-news/new-york-times-propaganda-photos-ukraine-exposed/

April 23, 2014 - A day after the New York Times published a front-page report purporting to show the involvement of Russian Special Forces in protests in east Ukraine, its report, titled “Photos Link Masked Men in East Ukraine to Russia,” has been exposed as a blatant fabrication.

The Times printed low-resolution pictures of fighters—allegedly wearing Russian insignia while in Georgia, and then later as protesters in east Ukraine—asserting they were the same men, thus proving the existence of an armed Russian intervention in Ukraine. It was based on a crude trick first noted by a commenter on a link posted on Reddit. The photos in the Times were down-sampled versions of higher-resolution images circulating online, which show that the men in the different pictures are in fact not the same.

It very rapidly became clear that the Times ’ claims to have proven that Russian soldiers were driving the east Ukraine protests against the pro-Western regime in Kiev were complete rubbish.

The BBC compared the high-resolution pictures of two bearded men theTimes falsely asserted were the same fighter. It concluded, “In the 2014 photos, the man’s greying beard appears to be black, while in Georgia six years ago, the slimmer-looking man shown has a reddish beard.”

In publishing the false allegations, the Times worked closely with the US government, which received the photos from the unelected pro-US regime in Kiev and “endorsed” them before passing them on. At a press briefing, however, US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki, whom the New York Times quoted in its article, indicated that the administration was well aware that the photos did not constitute proof of what was being claimed.

Pressed about whether she was certain the pictures showed individuals linked to Russia, Psaki replied: “What we see in these photos that have been, again, in international media, on Twitter, and publicly available, is that there are individuals who visibly appear to be tied to Russia. We’ve said that publicly a countless number of times. I will let you draw all the conclusions yourself as to whether these are individuals who look similar or not to other events.”

A journalist at the briefing objected to calling this “evidence,” and asked, “Do you think this is evidence that would stand up in a court of law?”

Psaki replied, “I don’t think it’s a legal—we’re not making a court-of-law case here. We’re just showing that this is photographic evidence that indicates the connection we’ve been talking about for weeks now.”

The journalist asked, “You think it is proof of connection, or it’s just—or you’re just alleging that it’s another sign of this?”

Psaki replied, “It’s another sign.”

In fact, the Times has worked to mislead its readers, uncritically presenting concocted photos delivered by its contacts in the State Department.

Washington, as it passed the pictures on to the Times, knew very well that they did not constitute evidence of anything, but were simply a new propaganda point supporting its as-yet unsubstantiated accusations of Russian involvement in Ukraine. The Obama administration relied on theTimes to publish the pictures, fanning the flames of the media campaign to denounce Russia, without doing any due diligence to check that its materials were accurate or that proved anything at all.

A decade ago, Times journalist Judith Miller was the conduit for broadcasting lies that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (WMD), touching off a huge media campaign that set the stage for the US invasion of Iraq.

Today, the lies the Times is palming off as news could provoke a war with Russia, a nuclear-armed power. By fabricating evidence of Russian involvement in east Ukraine, the Times was providing political ammunition for calls in Ukraine and in the Western imperialist powers for a military crackdown against protests in east Ukraine, a region with a large Russian population. This could lead to a military intervention by Moscow in eastern Ukraine to break up the crackdown, and a clash between Russia and Ukraine drawing in the Western powers.

The Times ’ fabrications also served to obscure the fact that this conflict arose out of the decision of Washington and its European allies to topple Ukraine’s previous, Russian-aligned regime in a fascist-led putsch in February. The unelected pro-Western regime in Kiev has now encountered significant popular opposition in pro-Russian regions of eastern Ukraine. It is this aggressive policy of the Western powers that is driving the explosive standoff in eastern Ukraine.

 

[thorbiorn]

Hmmm... the whole thing reminds me of a "suicide mission" on the part of the US. You know, like a group of rebels that know they've been exposed, have NO hope of surviving, and decide to go out in a "blaze of glory" AKA "The Sampson Option". Another model is the psychopath who cannot stop even with all the warnings in the world.

I hope I'm wrong, but I can see no rational basis for ANY of the US's decisions.

Sampson was blind and psychopath lack foresight. The two qualities put together makes it about as bad as it gets.

 

[angelburst29]

U.S. says it is not "running the show" in Ukraine
_http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/04/24/359820/us-denies-running-the-show-in-ukraine/

April 24, 2014 - In an interview with RT television broadcast on Wednesday, Lavrov accused the US of being behind the Ukraine turmoil and said Moscow would respond if its interests came under attack.

"There is no reason not to believe that the Americans are running the show," RT quoted him as saying.

US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki dismissed Lavrov’s remarks as “ludicrous”.

"I think many of the claims he made in his interview are ludicrous and they're not based in facts of what is happening on the ground," Psaki said.

Last week, Ukrainian authorities ordered a military offensive against the protesters, who seized government buildings in several towns and cities in eastern Ukraine, claiming that Russian special forces are fueling unrest in the country. On Tuesday, Kiev ordered security forces to resume "counter-terrorism operations".

In his interview, Lavrov stated that the timing of the renewed offensive during US Vice President Joe Biden's visit to Kiev revealed that "the Americans are running the show in the most direct way."

On April 17, Ukraine’s interim government together with the US, Russia and the European Union reached an agreement in the Swiss city of Geneva, calling for all sides to resolve the crisis in eastern Ukraine.

An American political commentator told Press TV on Sunday that the US has no intension of upholding the Geneva agreement over Ukraine rather it is going to escalate the crisis by piling up forces on Russia’s doorstep.

“The US has no intension of upholding the agreement (reached) in Geneva as its puppet government in Kiev has made no attempt to disarm the new fascists who engaged in shootout yesterday in eastern Ukraine – (a) clear indication that Washington is sanctioning these paramilitary groups that are still operating very effectively and who have representation in the Kiev junta’s cabinet,” Professor James Petras said.

The US policy is to “encircle Russia and to undermine its economy by imposing sanctions” and “provoke the confrontation,” Petras said.

US troops arrive in Poland for drills amid rising tensions over Ukraine
_http://rt.com/news/154556-us-troops-drills-poland/ (video's)

April 24, 2014 - The first wave of US troops has arrived in Poland to begin military drills “promoting peace and stability” across Eastern Europe. Tensions continue to mount in the region, as Ukraine teeters on the brink of a civil war.

A contingent of 150 American soldiers arrived in the Polish town of Swidwin on Thursday and will be shortly joined by another 450 troops. The soldiers will participate in military exercises in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia over the next three months, with a view to reassuring NATO allies in the region.

Defense Department spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby, who announced the drills Tuesday, said they sent a clear message to Moscow.

"If there's a message to Moscow, it is the same exact message that we take our obligations very, very seriously on the continent of Europe," Kirby told reporters. Washington has accused Russia of meddling in the affairs of neighboring Ukraine, which is currently embroiled in a crisis that shows no signs of de-escalation.

Moscow categorically denies the accusations and says that Washington has orchestrated the unrest in Ukraine to further its geopolitical ambitions in the region. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told RT on Wednesday that “the Americans are running the show” and he denied claims of a Russian military presence in Ukraine.

In addition, he said that the Russian troops massed along the Ukrainian border had been deployed for routine drills, something that has been verified by international inspectors.

“Ukraine is just one manifestation of the American unwillingness to yield in the geopolitical fight. Americans are not ready to admit that they cannot run the show in each and every part of the globe from Washington alone,” Lavrov said.

In Ukraine, the coup-appointed government in Kiev re-launched an “anti-terror operation” in the east of the country after pledging to cease all violence at four-sided talks between the EU, the US, Russia and Ukraine in Geneva last week.

Government tanks besieged the eastern city of Slavyansk on Thursday, killing five people as part of a self-proclaimed “anti-terror operation.” Pro-Russian activists have taken control of government buildings in the area to protest the coup-appointed government in Kiev, which they view as illegitimate.

The Russian government has condemned the use of violence by the interim Ukrainian government on unarmed civilians in eastern Ukraine.

“In Geneva, we agreed there must be an end of all violence. Next afternoon [interim Ukrainian President Aleksandr] Turchinov declared almost a state of emergency and ordered the army to shoot at the people,” Lavrov told RT.


Russia 'forced' to launch military drills near border in response to Ukraine op
_http://rt.com/news/154588-russia-drill-ukraine-operation/

Russia has begun extensive military exercises near the Ukrainian border following the escalation of violence in eastern Ukraine.

“The order to use force against civilians has already been given, and if this military machine is not stopped, the amount of casualties will only grow,” Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said during an official meeting in Moscow.

“War games by NATO in Poland and the Baltic states are also not helping the normalization of the situation. We are forced to react to the situation.”

Shoigu said that the drills involve march and deployment maneuvers by forces in the southern and western military districts, and separate Air Force exercises.

Shoigu said that 11,000 Ukrainian soldiers, 160 tanks, 230 armored carriers and at least 150 artillery pieces are involved in the operation against anti-Kiev activists.

“National guard units and Right Sector extremists are fighting against the peaceful population, as well as a volunteer Donbass ‘anti-terrorist’ unit. Also security and internal forces transferred to Lugansk and Donetsk from other areas of the country are suppressing dissent,” he said.

Shoigu added that Ukrainian sabotage units had been deployed near the Russian border.

 

[Minas Tirith]

If the Ukrainian military continue killing protesters, Russia is ready to respond.

You know, this is kind of how the First World War started, with different countries and on different soil, but everything else is in the mix. :/ and everyone "was forced to react"...

M.T.

 

[angelburst29]

New York Times Admits It Pushed Fabricated Evidence about Iraq, Syria and Ukraine
_ http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/04/u-s-government-new-york-times-admit-lied-ukraine-russia.html

Mainstream Media Is Being Forced to Retract Its Propaganda More and More Quickly
April 24, 2014 - The New York Times pushed fabricated evidence in the run up to the Iraq war. A year later, the newspaper apologized for its inaccurate, one-sided coverage.

The U.S. and the New York Times pretended that Syria’s government was responsible for the chemical weapons attack … but that claim was debunked, and even the New York Times was forced to retract it several months later. (The alternative media, including Pulitzer prize winning reporter Seymour Hersh, has also pointed out that it was the Syrians rebels – with the help of the Turkish government – did it).

Then the U.S. and the New York Times pretended that they had proof that Russian soldiers were the mysterious “masked men” seizing government buildings in Ukraine. But a couple of days later, they were forced reporting from the alternative media – especially Robert Parry, winner of the George Polk Award for National Reporting – into retracting that claim, and admitting that their “proof” was almost as flimsy as proof of Saddam’s “weapons of mass destruction”.

It seems like the alternative media is forcing the New York Times to retract half-baked, pro-war, propaganda claims more and more quickly.

 

[angelburst29]

I wanted to insert this cartoon in the last post.
_http://whatreallyhappened.com/IMAGES/deadworld.jpg

 

[StrangeCaptain]

I just heard like 2 minutes of a Kerry speech on the Ukraine situation, and it is so utterly dripping in utterly standard, not the least bit imaginative, deep state propaganda in terms of political / military / economic statements. It is so profoundly mechanical and pathetic. I am swooning with shock that this blatant jargon can be so casually thrown about. Shame on me for being shocked. No doubt there are multitudes that can't believe Asian centers of power are interested mainly in securing their own sovereignty... That can't believe Asian centers of power do not have the same aspirations as our own centers of power...

Maybe I am overly dramatic... Maybe this is just another day in our brave new world...

 

[Nević Nenad]

I think that the US psychos obviously needs and wants the war (and above all really doesn't comprehend situation in which they are), and it would be best for them that it is low intensity war. Where they can exhaust Russia. But since Putin knows better than that I can assume that if there would be Russian action, it would be very fast and very massive. But most probably Putin will play the silence card and wait for the US to exhaust the rest western powers with their "help Ukraine" rant. Something like it happened with Syria situation.

 

[StrangeCaptain]

My post above was probably the expression of frustration from having read Prouty's books, watched Stone's history series, and rewatched Evidence of Revision in the last two months.

Prouty describes a type of machine that reacts to intelligence input. When certain signals activate this machine, it churns out operations like we have seen since the end of WW2 and are seeing in Ukraine. He describes this machine as having no real long-term foreign policy goal other than that which is stated publicly as a justification: anti-communism, anti-terrorism, etc.

Assuming he is more or less correct, it seems inevitable that the machine would generate a clandestine operation automatically in a situation where it is really NOT going to work because that is just what the machine does. It seems to me that creating a counter-strategy to these kinds of operations could be built just through a close study of history. I would imagine there is a committee somewhere in Russia charged with studying all these cases of CIA "fun and games" as Prouty would say in order to get a good sense of how they implement these kinds of operations. How much variability is there really once the rubber hits the road? The truly hidden threat is that these operations can be implemented in so many different places that it is probably really difficult to predict where this will happen.

 

[SeekinTruth]

I'm getting the feeling lately that since everything has gone against their calculations, the global Pathocracy and the stooges in Kiev are desperate and will end up trying to create another Syria (and the like) situation on Russia's borders. Russia still has many more good options to deal with whatever these pathological turds are up to. But Putin and Russia also act very carefully and only take action at the right moment - so they show the utmost restraint in whatever situation.

There is the chance that the desperate pathologicals will trigger something more than they bargained for militarily if they keep pushing their luck. It also seems to me that America and the West accelerated their inevitable collapse by at least several years by forcing Russia and its allies' hands. Or so I think.