Another interesting study from 2009.
I think on this one they are actually working on the model that is probably used by CDC when they "cook" the numbers. But let's dive into it and see what we find...
I don't think that after 11 years we have this collaborative network.
Please note that this is for 9 out of 12 months only.
Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study
Lone Simonsen and colleagues use a two-stage statistical modeling approach to estimate the global mortality burden of the 2009 influenza pandemic from mortality data obtained from multiple countries. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
journals.plos.org
I think on this one they are actually working on the model that is probably used by CDC when they "cook" the numbers. But let's dive into it and see what we find...
Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries.
We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons <65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics.
I don't think that after 11 years we have this collaborative network.
The researchers estimated that between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic influenza respiratory deaths occurred globally from 1 April through 31 December 2009.
Please note that this is for 9 out of 12 months only.
Finally, the model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season.
These findings suggest that respiratory mortality from the 2009 influenza pandemic was about 10-fold higher than laboratory-confirmed mortality. The true total mortality burden is likely to be even higher because deaths that occurred late in the winter of 2009–2010 and in later pandemic waves were missed in this analysis, and only pandemic influenza deaths that were recorded as respiratory deaths were included.