Crazy Storm Weather and Lightning - Global


Meh !

To rely on GFS or any other weather prediction model, creating one on 11 Dec with outlooks for 25 Dec - and then calling out "Europe is already expecting a white Christmas" ? Well, that is really steep. I mean... 14 days a head of time in a weather prognosis isn't exactly "White Christmas". It can become... anything and everything or nothing.

Those models are notoriously unpredictable. Especially when the weather pattern contains a lot of rapid movements with cyclones and anti cyclones swirling around (which often is the case in winter). With locked, stable weather patterns ("Omega weather pattern") you may pull off a slightly more 'accurate' prognosis for the 7th day ahead of time, if at all.

But 14 days ?! I don't think so.
 
Enormous 'red sprite' captured over Oklahoma:
Last night, a large number of sprites appeared in the eastern sky. This is a slow-motion video of sprites taken from Hiratsuka at 22:08:28 on December 21, 2024. Sprites are luminous phenomena emitted into space by lightning strikes. This sprite has a complex structure like a joint, and the cap-shaped part of a mushroom has separated.

🌩️ Thunderstorms are circulating this afternoon over a large north-eastern quarter of the country, in a trailing sky (yellow areas = current thunderstorm alerts; black spots = lightning). They are locally producing snow down to very low altitudes.
➡️ to follow live here:

The #orages are gaining ground this afternoon and are now affecting the north of the Massif Central and the Alps (storm alerts in grey and yellow). 2500+ lightning strikes since midnight, a high value for December. Snow storms are reported locally. real-time monitoring:


🔴 SNOWY EPISODE ❄️ Towards a snowstorm between this Sunday evening and Tuesday at altitude ⚠️ #Noël

Confirmation of a significant snow episode which is currently starting this Sunday with the passage of the first snow showers > 500m. They could even be stormy at the end of the day and in the evening, with a rapid accumulation on the ground higher up!

During the night from Sunday to Monday, the snowfall will become more regular with flakes at 350-400 meters... so much so that we will already measure [MONDAY MORNING]:

🔹 1-3cm around 400m
🔹 3-7cm around 600m
🔹 7-15cm around 800m
🔹 15-25cm around 1000m

Monday will show almost no respite since it will still snow very frequently in the morning, afternoon and evening above 400m altitude. Traffic will become extremely difficult (with a series of accidents, traffic jams or skidding) from 700m… It is also advisable to avoid passes and ski resorts!

During the night from Monday to Tuesday, Haut-Doubs and Haut-Jura will continue to experience precipitation due to orography, giving a few more centimetres from 500m altitude...

⚠️ By [TUESDAY MORNING], the *total* thickness of *fresh* snow should — according to my analysis — be around:

🔹 1-3cm from 400m
🔹 3-7cm from 450m
🔹 7-15cm from 500m
🔺 15-25cm around 700m
🔺 25-40cm towards 900m
🔺 40-60cm around 1100m

Note that after 900-1000m, large snowdrifts will appear with varying thicknesses depending on your exposure to the wind. Back to dryness on Tuesday around noon… ✅

☀️ The sun will finally return on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday/Sunday in Franche-Comté, without a thaw! 😍

 
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