Crazy Storm Weather and Lightning - Global


Meh !

To rely on GFS or any other weather prediction model, creating one on 11 Dec with outlooks for 25 Dec - and then calling out "Europe is already expecting a white Christmas" ? Well, that is really steep. I mean... 14 days a head of time in a weather prognosis isn't exactly "White Christmas". It can become... anything and everything or nothing.

Those models are notoriously unpredictable. Especially when the weather pattern contains a lot of rapid movements with cyclones and anti cyclones swirling around (which often is the case in winter). With locked, stable weather patterns ("Omega weather pattern") you may pull off a slightly more 'accurate' prognosis for the 7th day ahead of time, if at all.

But 14 days ?! I don't think so.
 
Enormous 'red sprite' captured over Oklahoma:
Last night, a large number of sprites appeared in the eastern sky. This is a slow-motion video of sprites taken from Hiratsuka at 22:08:28 on December 21, 2024. Sprites are luminous phenomena emitted into space by lightning strikes. This sprite has a complex structure like a joint, and the cap-shaped part of a mushroom has separated.

🌩️ Thunderstorms are circulating this afternoon over a large north-eastern quarter of the country, in a trailing sky (yellow areas = current thunderstorm alerts; black spots = lightning). They are locally producing snow down to very low altitudes.
➡️ to follow live here:

The #orages are gaining ground this afternoon and are now affecting the north of the Massif Central and the Alps (storm alerts in grey and yellow). 2500+ lightning strikes since midnight, a high value for December. Snow storms are reported locally. real-time monitoring:


🔴 SNOWY EPISODE ❄️ Towards a snowstorm between this Sunday evening and Tuesday at altitude ⚠️ #Noël

Confirmation of a significant snow episode which is currently starting this Sunday with the passage of the first snow showers > 500m. They could even be stormy at the end of the day and in the evening, with a rapid accumulation on the ground higher up!

During the night from Sunday to Monday, the snowfall will become more regular with flakes at 350-400 meters... so much so that we will already measure [MONDAY MORNING]:

🔹 1-3cm around 400m
🔹 3-7cm around 600m
🔹 7-15cm around 800m
🔹 15-25cm around 1000m

Monday will show almost no respite since it will still snow very frequently in the morning, afternoon and evening above 400m altitude. Traffic will become extremely difficult (with a series of accidents, traffic jams or skidding) from 700m… It is also advisable to avoid passes and ski resorts!

During the night from Monday to Tuesday, Haut-Doubs and Haut-Jura will continue to experience precipitation due to orography, giving a few more centimetres from 500m altitude...

⚠️ By [TUESDAY MORNING], the *total* thickness of *fresh* snow should — according to my analysis — be around:

🔹 1-3cm from 400m
🔹 3-7cm from 450m
🔹 7-15cm from 500m
🔺 15-25cm around 700m
🔺 25-40cm towards 900m
🔺 40-60cm around 1100m

Note that after 900-1000m, large snowdrifts will appear with varying thicknesses depending on your exposure to the wind. Back to dryness on Tuesday around noon… ✅

☀️ The sun will finally return on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday/Sunday in Franche-Comté, without a thaw! 😍

 
What is happening in the south of Mexico? That region is getting colder and colder. Supposedly, that is what should be happening in the north of the country
I've been to San Cristobal Las Casas, Chiapas in 1999, which is even more South than Veracruz, and in the winter, it gets cold and they sometimes get snow because of altitude (the city proper is located at 2,200 meters above sea level)

Your first video Volcano: with an elevation of 4,282 meters (14,049 ft) above sea level, Cofre de Perote is Mexico's eighth highest mountain summit. Wikipedia

So once altitude is taken into account, there seems to be nothing unusual with this snow. The host even says this in the 2nd video: snow/wet snow could be expected at altitudes above 3000m.
 
meadow wind. said:.

So once altitude is taken into account, there seems to be nothing unusual with this snow. The host even says this in the 2nd video: snow/wet snow could be expected at altitudes above 3000m.

-----------------------------------------------
The cold continues in high places and now also in low places in Mexico.

 


Tomorrow, a storm will hit several regions of our country.- The coasts will experience winds of 100 to 110 km/h, locally 120 km/h in #Vendée .- A wide band extending from the Pays de la Loire to the northern borders via the Paris region will experience gusts of up to 110 km/h locally.- The Valley of #Rhône and surrounding areas will experience gusts of 90-100km/h, which could reach 120km/h in the #Givors sector (venturi effect).


 
From the USA to Europe with Love via the Jet Stream and Strom Enzo

Over the coming night and during the day tomorrow, the storm field of #Orkan #Éowyn will move across Ireland and parts of Great Britain. We look at this extraordinary storm and the record-breaking model forecasts in the topic of the day. /Vhttps://dwd.de/DE/wetter/them




 

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RECORD-BREAKING WINDS SLAM IRELAND!A gust of 185 km/h (115mph) at Mace Head has shattered the previous record of 182 km/h (113mph) set in 1945, according to Met Éireann, Ireland's National Meteorological Service.Storm "Eowyn" has been raging for several days, leaving a third of the country without power, The New York Times reported earlier.
2:45 AM · Jan 26, 2025
STORM EOWYN CAUSES CHAOS ACROSS THE BRITISH ISLESRed alerts have been issued in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as the storm destroys buildings and uproots trees. Wind speeds have reached over 100 mph.
 
I wonder about these weather warnings and reports.

It's normal to get higher winds on the West/Atlantic coast here in Ireland. The weather maps suggested that winds would be higher to that side of the country anyway - presumably to do with the positioning of the depression.

The storm here to the Eastern side of the midlands didn't however feel like anything abnormal for the time of the year - it was a windy night but subjectively nothing that we have not had many times before.

Whatever the case they with red weather warnings created an unheard of scenario where the entire country was shut down for Friday. Employers presumably fell in line because of the consequent risk of liability...
 

🌀 The Ivo depression presents a particularly aesthetic cloudy roll off our Atlantic coasts. It generates bad weather on the west of France and the Iberian peninsula. (via @Windycom)

A moderate to extreme intensity surge of atmospheric river (AR) moisture hits parts of the West Coast between Friday and Saturday (1/31-2/1). What is an AR surge? It's extra moisture that is funneled into storm systems often making them wetter. AR events can generate flash flooding, mud slides, and feet of high mountain snowfall accumulation. The atmospheric river is sometimes referred to as the 'Pineapple Express'.

Forecast snowfall accumulation at higher elevations (around 8K at Tahoe) will be measured in feet.

A few highlights, grand totals 1/31-2/6:
  • Whistler/Blackcomb: 14"
  • Mount Baker: 34"
  • Mount Bachelor: 22"
  • Mount Shasta: 50-70"
  • Kirkwood: 50"
  • Palisades Tahoe: 36"
  • Mammoth Mountain: 36"
TOMER PNW FORECAST SNOW 1292025-1738182731812.jpg


 
Another atmospheric river barrels in on the West Coast and beyond, making it the biggest rainstorm of this year.

SFGATE
Flash floods, 30-foot waves: Bay Area braces for intense atmospheric river

The biggest rainstorm of the season will impact Southern California this week, bringing the risk of flooding and mudslides, especially in burn scar areas around Los Angele
By late Tuesday, a moisture-filled pattern will start back up again along the West Coast, raising concerns for flooding from Central to Southern California.

Following a brief lull in the stormy pattern, California residents are on track to be doused by another atmospheric river, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. Through early this week, the drier stretch will persist across much of the West coast; however, the next big weather-maker will arrive by late Tuesday night into Wednesday for places along the Central and Southern California coastline.

"California will be impacted by yet another atmospheric river this rainy season, delivering moisture to areas that have seen little of it this year," noted AccuWeather Meteorologist Jacob Hinson.

Hinson added that since Oct. 1 of last year, places like Fresno, California, have only recorded about 56% of their historical average rainfall. Locations farther south like Los Angeles are facing lower statistics, with only 22-32% of their typical rainfall recorded during that time frame.


Ahead of the storms this week, forecasters say that a push of Arctic air will pulse southward out of Canada into the Northwest, challenging some daily overnight low records. During the coldest part of the week; however, conditions are expected to be mainly dry across the Pacific Northwest as storms may not reach that far north along the West coast until late week.

Cities like Portland, Oregon, are forecast to have low temperatures ranging into the mid-20s Fahrenheit from early to midweek, roughly 10-15 degrees F below typical February minimum temperatures and approaching daily record lows.

Early Tuesday morning, AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will trend even lower into the teens along the Washington and Oregon coastline. Farther inland, RealFeel®'s ranging in the single digits will be commonplace from Bend, Oregon, to Nampa, Idaho, located to the west of Boise.

Deluge of rain on the way for California

While the initial raindrops may arrive along the Central Coast and San Francisco Bay area by Tuesday, the primary push of moisture into the state may be late Wednesday night through Thursday.

"This atmospheric river will bring with it multiple inches of rain from the North Bay Area all the way down the coast to San Diego. For coastal areas, there will be a small amount of rain impacting from the South Bay Area down the coast to Point Conception overnight Tuesday, which then continues through Wednesday morning. The main event will be impacting sometime Wednesday night through Thursday morning," noted Hinson.

"Most areas will see 1-2 inches of rain from early Wednesday morning through Friday night. Typical upslope areas could see as much as 2-3 inches for the duration of the event," warned Hinson.

However, locally, much higher amounts can occur in the south-to-southwest-facing slopes of the coastal foothills and mountains with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 11 inches.

Blizzard conditions possible for mountain locations

Hinson added that a decent amount of rain will be impacting the Sierra as well, dumping 2-4 inches of rain on the Foothills and 6-12 inches of snow along the range. Some areas of the mountains could receive up to 24 inches of snow, and with winds gusting to 40 mph on Thursday, blizzard conditions across the Sierra are not out of the question.

Travelers along portions of Interstate 80 through Donner Pass could face significant delays, particularly later this week, as snow spreads through the mountains.

In addition to the gusty winds in the mountainous terrain later this week, spots along the coast will have a chance to gust upwards of 25-35 mph at times Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Offshore winds can be even stronger, and mariners from Northern California to Point Conception should stay weather aware and pay mind to local advisories before taking to the seas.

Flooding concerns will be heightened across the region, not only for locations expected to receive over 2 inches of rainfall this week but for burn scar areas in Southern California recently impacted by the devastating fires over the last month.

"While this rain will be beneficial to areas like the Central Valley and L.A. Basin, it could be too much of a good thing in certain areas. We’re still concerned about burn scars getting enough rainfall to affect soil stability, thus causing landslides or debris flows. The amount of rain in the forecast can also cause issues where drainage systems aren’t adequate, causing localized flooding of streets and roadways," Hinson said.

Can Las Vegas break its dry streak?

The last time Las Vegas recorded more than a trace of rain dates back over 200 days, to the middle of July 2024. The upcoming pattern may finally allow them to break their streak and bring measurable precipitation to the region.

Portions of southern Nevada are currently facing levels of exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Later this week, as moisture advances across Southern California and into the desert regions of the Southwest, forecasters say that chances are increasing for a round of rain or showers to spread into Las Vegas.

Meanwhile:❄️☃️


The U.S. experienced its coldest January in 37 years, but the Earth experienced its warmest January on record.
Residents across the eastern and southern United States shivered last month as multiple Arctic fronts brought record-low temperatures and rare snow to the Gulf Coast. The numbers are in, and NOAA says the United States experienced the coldest January average temperature since 1988, while Copernicus reports that the Earth had its warmest January on record.

Coldest January in 37 years

map.webp
The NOAA average temperature in January was 29.23 degrees Fahrenheit, narrowly beating out January 2011 (29.71) and January 1996 (29.70) and making last month the coldest January since 1988 (27.79). The temperature anomaly for January was -0.89 of a degree compared to the last 130 years and -3.14 degrees compared to the 1991-2020 climate normals.

The states of West Virginia and Alabama had their 12th- and 15th-coldest January in the last 130 years, respectively. The last time both states experienced a colder January was in 2014.

Over 5,000 daily snow and cold records were broken

According to NOAA, 4,630 daily record minimum temperatures (or record low maximum temperatures) were tied or broken during January 2025, along with 884 daily snowfall records.

A total of 24 stations measured the most snow they had ever received in 24 hours, and another 23 broke all-time low temperatures for any time of year. Louisiana and Florida preliminarily broke their state all-time 24-hour snowfall records during the record-breaking Gulf Coast snowstorm.

A cold month among many warmer months

This below-normal January in the U.S. bucks recent trends, following 11 above-normal months. This is the first month that the U.S. has recorded below-normal temperatures since January 2024, when mean temperatures were only slightly below normal, minus 0.46 F.

Globe experiences its hottest January ever

Worldwide, the globe experienced its hottest January on record, Copernicus reported, with most of the Earth's land masses reporting high temperature anomalies compared to the 30-year normals, except for the United States and parts of Russia. NOAA will report on global temperatures soon and is expected to confirm those numbers.

Screenshot 2025-02-11 at 12-25-11 January was coldest in U.S. since 1988 but globe was warmest...png
 
(Andromeda) Do you want to ask if the recent auroras are what the C’s were referring to when they said ‘watch the seas, skies, and land’ recently? Or is there more to come?

A: More coming!

It's getting real, everyone, thanks to another all-star session.





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