To understand why the 8.8 magnitude earthquake on the Kamchatka Peninsula on July 30, 2025 did not generate destructive tsunamis like the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake in Japan (Mw 9.1), we must analyze the differences in earthquake characteristics, geological conditions, and factors influencing tsunami generation. The following explanation is based on available information and principles of seismology:
1. Characteristics of the Kamchatka Earthquake (Mw 8.8, 2025)
● Magnitude and rupture: The Kamchatka earthquake was a subduction megafault event with a magnitude of 8.8, occurring 119 km southeast of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky at a depth of 20.7 km. The rupture extended approximately 600 km along the Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone, with a maximum slip displacement of 12-15 meters.
● Tsunami Generated: A tsunami warning was issued following the event, and tsunami waves were observed, but they were not destructive. According to NOAA data, wave heights were small (generally less than 1 meter in most affected areas, with a maximum of 1.2 meters in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky). Alerts were quickly lifted, and no significant tsunami damage was reported.
● Location: The epicenter was located off the east coast of Kamchatka, in a remote region with low population density and far from large urban centers.
2. Comparison with the Tōhoku Earthquake (Mw 9.1, 2011)
●Magnitude and rupture: The Tōhoku earthquake was more powerful (Mw 9.1) with a larger rupture area (approximately 500 km long by 200 km wide) and a maximum slip of up to 50 meters in some areas, much greater than in Kamchatka. This greater energy release contributed to a more significant displacement of the seafloor.
● Destructive Tsunami: The Tōhoku tsunami generated waves up to 40.5 meters high in some areas (average of 10-15 meters on the coast), causing devastation on the east coast of Japan, with more than 18,000 victims and extensive damage. The waves traveled across the Pacific, affecting even distant regions such as Hawaii and South America.
● Location: The epicenter was 70 km off the coast of Sendai, near densely populated areas, which amplified the impact of the tsunami.
3. Factors Explaining the Difference in Tsunami Impact
Several factors determine the generation and severity of a tsunami, and these differ between the two events:
a) Magnitude and Seafloor Slip
Kamchatka: Although the Mw 8.8 earthquake was very powerful, its maximum slip (12-15 meters) was less than that of Tōhoku (up to 50 meters). Tsunami generation depends directly on the vertical displacement of the seafloor, which lifts or displaces large volumes of water. A smaller slip in Kamchatka resulted in a less significant displacement of water.
● Tōhoku: The enormous slip in Tōhoku caused a massive displacement of the seafloor, generating much larger tsunami waves.
b) Fault Geometry and Rupture Direction
Kamchatka: The rupture extended mainly along the subduction zone (600 km, northeast to southwest), but the slip was predominantly horizontal (strike-slip in some areas) with a limited vertical component. This reduces the ability to generate large tsunami waves, as tsunamis require a strong vertical uplift or subsidence of the seafloor.
●Tōhoku: The rupture had a more pronounced thrust component, with significant vertical uplift of the seafloor near the Japan Trench. This displaced a massive volume of water, amplifying the tsunami.
c) Depth and Location of the Epicenter
Kamchatka: The epicenter was 20.7 km deep, in a region of the subduction plate with a steeper slope. This may have limited direct vertical displacement on the seafloor surface. In addition, the epicenter was 119 km from the coast, which allowed some dissipation of wave energy before reaching land.
● Tōhoku: The epicenter, at a depth of 30 km, was closer to the coast (70 km), and the rupture occurred in an area where the Pacific plate subducts with a geometry that favored a large uplift of the seafloor, maximizing the impact of the tsunami on the coast.
d) Seafloor Topography
Kamchatka: The Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone has a deep trench (up to 10 km), but the seafloor topography may not have channeled the tsunami waves as efficiently toward the coast as in Japan. The Kamchatka coast is more rugged and less populated, which also reduces the perceived impact.
● Tōhoku: The Japan Trench and the narrower continental shelf off the east coast of Japan allowed the tsunami waves to amplify as they approached the coast, especially in areas with bays and coastal plains that channeled the waves inland.
e) Population Density and Coastal Vulnerability
Kamchatka: The Kamchatka Peninsula is remote, with a population of approximately 310,000, concentrated mainly in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. The areas near the epicenter are sparsely populated, and the coastline is mostly rugged, limiting potential damage even if the waves had been larger.
● Tōhoku: The east coast of Japan is densely populated, with cities such as Sendai and Fukushima directly exposed. The low-lying coastal plains allowed the tsunami waves to penetrate kilometers inland, causing massive devastation.
f) Warning and Preparedness Systems
Kamchatka: Russia has a tsunami warning system that allowed for rapid warnings to be issued. The population was evacuated from coastal areas, and the warning was lifted when it was confirmed that the waves were small. This minimized any potential impact.
● Tōhoku: Although Japan has one of the most advanced tsunami warning systems in the world, the magnitude of the event exceeded expectations, and the waves reached the coast in less than 30 minutes, leaving little time for complete evacuations in some areas.