Geopolitical Analysis: A Bird's-Eye View of the Global Situation

[Niall]

They sure didn't wait long to send an economic signal.
10 min. long only podcast but right to the point.
Investors Are Dumping US Treasuries Citing TOO MUCH RISK - Dollar Collapse Is Incoming
Could Europe trigger a dollar collapse by selling U.S. assets? In this video, we break down a stunning shift in global finance as a major Danish pension fund announces it will exit U.S. Treasuries, calling American finances “unsustainable.” This is not a fringe opinion — it’s a warning sign.With European countries holding $3.6 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries (40% of all foreign holdings), even a gradual selloff could send yields soaring, push U.S. borrowing costs to record levels, and destabilize global markets. Add Trump’s tariff threats, the Greenland dispute, a weakening dollar, and turmoil in Japan’s bond market — and the myth of U.S. Treasuries as a “risk-free” asset is cracking fast.Is the U.S. losing its safe-haven status? Are we witnessing the early stages of a structural exit from dollar assets? Watch to understand what’s really happening — and why this moment matters for markets worldwide.

This is highly unlikely. For now anyway. Denmark's US Treasury holdings are small, and have been 'sold off' gradually for the past decade.

Bessent is correct: it's fake news.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2013910689060933817

 

[Laurentien2]

This is highly unlikely. For now anyway. Denmark's US Treasury holdings are small, and have been 'sold off' gradually for the past decade.

Well Denmark isn't alone in Europe and if they find the balls ( European ) and working together they hold very strong card.
Chinese are dumping US bond and it look like many country as in Europe are doing it as well and investing in China.

Bond Collapse Forces U.S. REVERSAL As Investors CANCEL Treasuries For China RMB Debt

 

[T.C.]

Professor Jiang Xueqin interview by Dimitri Lascaris will certainly shock many Canadian viewer, me being one, about what he think is behind Carney speech in Davos and what is behind this new Canadian partnership with China.

What was his opinion on the speech?

 

[Carlos Alberto]

What was his opinion on the speech?

Here's and AI-generated summary:

Key Topics and Insights​

1.​

• Retired US General Jack Keane predicts an imminent US attack on Iran, involving expanded military resources targeting Iranian ballistic missiles, leadership, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members.
• Professor Ciang agrees the US will launch sustained and impressive air strikes on Iran, but emphasizes air strikes alone cannot topple the resilient Iranian regime without ground troops.
• Trump’s administration’s antagonistic Iran policies include:
  • Withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal.
  • US embassy move to Jerusalem.
  • Abraham Accords promoting Israel-Saudi Arabia peace.
  • Assassination of General Qasem Soleimani (June 2020), seen as a declaration of war.
• Iran’s potential to close the Strait of Hormuz is described as a “nuclear option,” which could paralyze global energy markets, severely impacting China, Japan, and South Korea.
• Iran’s retaliation is expected to target Israel and US regional bases via proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis, escalating conflict but not yet triggering the “nuclear option.”
• Unconfirmed reports of a Chinese military airlift to Iran (16 cargo aircraft) suggest Chinese support, including weapons and financing, to counteract US pressure.
• China’s strategic interest is to prevent US economic strangulation by safeguarding Iran, thus protecting its own energy imports and export-dependent economy.
• China will not send troops or declare war but may support Russia’s navy to create a maritime war of attrition against US naval dominance.

---

2.​

• Carney critiques the “rules-based international order” as partially fictitious, arguing it masks great power rivalry and economic coercion.
• He promotes a new paradigm called “values-based realism,”advocating:
  • Naming reality honestly.
  • Applying consistent standards to allies and rivals.
  • Building functional institutions to reduce economic coercion.
• Host and Professor Ciang express skepticism, noting:
  • Canada’s silence on Israeli military actions against Palestinians contrasts starkly with ongoing sanctions on Russia and Iran.
  • Carney’s speech is interpreted as marketing rhetoric, lacking substantive policy change.
  • Historically, Carney’s references (e.g., Peloponnesian War, “Power of the Powerless”) reflect a lament over America’s hegemonic exploitation and the need for alternatives, hinting at pivoting toward China as a new strategic partner.
• Carney’s grand strategy appears financially motivated, aiming to:
  • Attract Chinese capital into Canada’s real estate and economy.
  • Leverage Canada as a “toxic asset” for foreign investment amid domestic decline.
  • Use Chinese household savings and joint ventures (notably in EVs and manufacturing) to bolster Canadian economy.
• Predictions include an early Canadian election with a landslide win for Carney’s allies, followed by asset stripping and economic restructuring.

---

3.​

• Canada is described as deeply dependent on the US, economically hollowed out, with:
  • A large public sector (22% employment).
  • Heavy reliance on immigrant labor.
  • A real estate market functioning as a money laundering hub.
• Alberta’s separatist sentiment is rising, potentially exploited by US political forces.
• Professor Ciang provocatively advises Canadians to embrace Trump as a political reality, suggesting resistance is futile given US dominance.
• Canada’s ability to resist US colonization or economic absorption is limited; a referendum might surprisingly favor joining the US.

---

4.​

• Mark Carney’s recent trip to Beijing resulted in agreements including:
  • Allowing 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) into Canada at a 6.1% tariff, representing under 3% of Canada’s vehicle market.
  • Tariff reductions on Canadian canola seed from ~85% to ~15%, plus improved terms for canola meal, lobsters, crabs, and peas.
• Professor Ciang views this as a breakthrough with potential for rapid expansion, particularly joint ventures for EV production in Canada.
• Chinese EVs are heavily subsidized political tools demonstrating China’s technological prowess; the EV market in China currently has overcapacity.
• The agreements are part of a broader financial strategy to channel Chinese savings into Canada’s economy, including real estate and currency markets.
• The US aims to disrupt China’s access to Latin American agricultural exports, forcing China to rely more on North American (US and Canada) supplies.

---

5.​

• Canadian political and security elites remain hostile to Huawei, maintaining a ban on its 5G technology, citing espionage risks.
• Hostility is partly rooted in the Huawei executive’s detention and extradition request by the US, resulting in Chinese retaliation by detaining Canadian citizens.
• Professor Ciang suggests the hostility is personal and political, with intelligence agencies’ mistrust persisting despite broader strategic agreements.
• Accusations of Chinese interference in Canadian politics are described as manufactured threats by intelligence bureaucracies seeking justification for their existence.
• There is no concrete evidence of significant Chinese interference; motivations for such actions are Not specified/Uncertain but deemed unlikely and counterproductive by China.

On the second key topics and insights of the summary it says:

• Host and Professor Ciang express skepticism, noting:
  • Canada’s silence on Israeli military actions against Palestinians contrasts starkly with ongoing sanctions on Russia and Iran.
  • Carney’s speech is interpreted as marketing rhetoric, lacking substantive policy change.
  • Historically, Carney’s references (e.g., Peloponnesian War, “Power of the Powerless”) reflect a lament over America’s hegemonic exploitation and the need for alternatives, hinting at pivoting toward China as a new strategic partner.

 

[Alejo]

Then there's Vladimir Putin giving Trump a pat in the back on his intentions with both Denmark and his Peace Board thingy.

Denmark always treated Greenland ‘like a colony’ – Putin​

“Denmark has always treated Greenland like a colony, and treated it quite harshly, if not to say cruelly,”Putin said at a meeting with Russia’s National Security Council in the Kremlin on Wednesday.

Putin offers $1bn to Trump’s ‘peace board’​

Moscow is ready to contribute to US President Donald Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ initiative, President Vladimir Putin told the Russian Security Council on Wednesday. He suggested donating $1 billion to the body out of the Russian assets frozen in the US to support the recovery of the Palestinian enclave.

The initiative envisages an international council to manage funding, security, and political coordination in Gaza during a transitional period following a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The body will work alongside a Palestinian technocratic administration. Trump came up with the idea after the US brokered the truce last year.

Russia could provide $1 billion for the organization “right now, even before we decide whether we’ll take part… in the work of the Board of Peace,” the Russian president said, citing Moscow’s “special relations with the people of Palestine.”

The sum could be taken “from the Russian assets frozen by the previous [US] administration,” he added. Moscow “has always supported and continues to support any efforts aimed at strengthening international stability,” Putin stated.

 

[fifty_five]

I think it's easy to miss the point. What we are seeing is the world trying to find a way out of the empire, not without clumsy and futile attempts by vassals, who are nothing more than colonists who indignantly accuse the US of colonialism. Even the emerging non-colonial powers of multipolarism, such as Russia and China, have their difficulties given the inextricable web of interdependence that actually exists. I think it is very interesting, regardless of political beliefs, which are not only current but also, at the same time, completely OBSOLETE, and not just now, But still determine the points of assemblage of reality. Infinite repetition of the pattern. How interesting.

 

[Equinox]

I don't know why Carney's speech gave the impression of populism/nationalism, Canada is not independent, it's a British protectorate. Carney's remarks came almost at the same time as the Belgian PM, talking about the US : "Being a happy vassal is one thing, being a miserable slave is something else". It doesn't seem to me to be a purely "canadian" response but a concerted response in the Euro sphere.

Indeed. Charles III is the King of Canada and Commander-in-Chief of the Canadian Armed Forces, after all. And I'm pretty sure Mark Carney is a full on royalist.
To understand America's relationship with Canada is to also understand America's relationship with Britain and Britain's relationship with Canada. I think this 3-way relationship thing really snags on Trump.