Geopolitical Analysis: A Bird's-Eye View of the Global Situation

They sure didn't wait long to send an economic signal.
10 min. long only podcast but right to the point.
Investors Are Dumping US Treasuries Citing TOO MUCH RISK - Dollar Collapse Is Incoming
Could Europe trigger a dollar collapse by selling U.S. assets? In this video, we break down a stunning shift in global finance as a major Danish pension fund announces it will exit U.S. Treasuries, calling American finances “unsustainable.” This is not a fringe opinion — it’s a warning sign.With European countries holding $3.6 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries (40% of all foreign holdings), even a gradual selloff could send yields soaring, push U.S. borrowing costs to record levels, and destabilize global markets. Add Trump’s tariff threats, the Greenland dispute, a weakening dollar, and turmoil in Japan’s bond market — and the myth of U.S. Treasuries as a “risk-free” asset is cracking fast.Is the U.S. losing its safe-haven status? Are we witnessing the early stages of a structural exit from dollar assets? Watch to understand what’s really happening — and why this moment matters for markets worldwide.
This is highly unlikely. For now anyway. Denmark's US Treasury holdings are small, and have been 'sold off' gradually for the past decade.

denmark treasuries.jpg


Bessent is correct: it's fake news.

 
This is highly unlikely. For now anyway. Denmark's US Treasury holdings are small, and have been 'sold off' gradually for the past decade.
Well Denmark isn't alone in Europe and if they find the balls ( European ) and working together they hold very strong card.
Chinese are dumping US bond and it look like many country as in Europe are doing it as well and investing in China.

Bond Collapse Forces U.S. REVERSAL As Investors CANCEL Treasuries For China RMB Debt
 
What was his opinion on the speech?
Here's and AI-generated summary:

Key Topics and Insights​

1.​

  • Retired US General Jack Keane predicts an imminent US attack on Iran, involving expanded military resources targeting Iranian ballistic missiles, leadership, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members.
  • Professor Ciang agrees the US will launch sustained and impressive air strikes on Iran, but emphasizes air strikes alone cannot topple the resilient Iranian regime without ground troops.
  • Trump’s administration’s antagonistic Iran policies include:
    • Withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal.
    • US embassy move to Jerusalem.
    • Abraham Accords promoting Israel-Saudi Arabia peace.
    • Assassination of General Qasem Soleimani (June 2020), seen as a declaration of war.
  • Iran’s potential to close the Strait of Hormuz is described as a “nuclear option,” which could paralyze global energy markets, severely impacting China, Japan, and South Korea.
  • Iran’s retaliation is expected to target Israel and US regional bases via proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis, escalating conflict but not yet triggering the “nuclear option.”
  • Unconfirmed reports of a Chinese military airlift to Iran (16 cargo aircraft) suggest Chinese support, including weapons and financing, to counteract US pressure.
  • China’s strategic interest is to prevent US economic strangulation by safeguarding Iran, thus protecting its own energy imports and export-dependent economy.
  • China will not send troops or declare war but may support Russia’s navy to create a maritime war of attrition against US naval dominance.

2.​

  • Carney critiques the “rules-based international order” as partially fictitious, arguing it masks great power rivalry and economic coercion.
  • He promotes a new paradigm called “values-based realism,”advocating:
    • Naming reality honestly.
    • Applying consistent standards to allies and rivals.
    • Building functional institutions to reduce economic coercion.
  • Host and Professor Ciang express skepticism, noting:
    • Canada’s silence on Israeli military actions against Palestinians contrasts starkly with ongoing sanctions on Russia and Iran.
    • Carney’s speech is interpreted as marketing rhetoric, lacking substantive policy change.
    • Historically, Carney’s references (e.g., Peloponnesian War, “Power of the Powerless”) reflect a lament over America’s hegemonic exploitation and the need for alternatives, hinting at pivoting toward China as a new strategic partner.
  • Carney’s grand strategy appears financially motivated, aiming to:
    • Attract Chinese capital into Canada’s real estate and economy.
    • Leverage Canada as a “toxic asset” for foreign investment amid domestic decline.
    • Use Chinese household savings and joint ventures (notably in EVs and manufacturing) to bolster Canadian economy.
  • Predictions include an early Canadian election with a landslide win for Carney’s allies, followed by asset stripping and economic restructuring.

3.​

  • Canada is described as deeply dependent on the US, economically hollowed out, with:
    • A large public sector (22% employment).
    • Heavy reliance on immigrant labor.
    • A real estate market functioning as a money laundering hub.
  • Alberta’s separatist sentiment is rising, potentially exploited by US political forces.
  • Professor Ciang provocatively advises Canadians to embrace Trump as a political reality, suggesting resistance is futile given US dominance.
  • Canada’s ability to resist US colonization or economic absorption is limited; a referendum might surprisingly favor joining the US.

4.​

  • Mark Carney’s recent trip to Beijing resulted in agreements including:
    • Allowing 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) into Canada at a 6.1% tariff, representing under 3% of Canada’s vehicle market.
    • Tariff reductions on Canadian canola seed from ~85% to ~15%, plus improved terms for canola meal, lobsters, crabs, and peas.
  • Professor Ciang views this as a breakthrough with potential for rapid expansion, particularly joint ventures for EV production in Canada.
  • Chinese EVs are heavily subsidized political tools demonstrating China’s technological prowess; the EV market in China currently has overcapacity.
  • The agreements are part of a broader financial strategy to channel Chinese savings into Canada’s economy, including real estate and currency markets.
  • The US aims to disrupt China’s access to Latin American agricultural exports, forcing China to rely more on North American (US and Canada) supplies.

5.​

  • Canadian political and security elites remain hostile to Huawei, maintaining a ban on its 5G technology, citing espionage risks.
  • Hostility is partly rooted in the Huawei executive’s detention and extradition request by the US, resulting in Chinese retaliation by detaining Canadian citizens.
  • Professor Ciang suggests the hostility is personal and political, with intelligence agencies’ mistrust persisting despite broader strategic agreements.
  • Accusations of Chinese interference in Canadian politics are described as manufactured threats by intelligence bureaucracies seeking justification for their existence.
  • There is no concrete evidence of significant Chinese interference; motivations for such actions are Not specified/Uncertain but deemed unlikely and counterproductive by China.

On the second key topics and insights of the summary it says:

  • Host and Professor Ciang express skepticism, noting:
    • Canada’s silence on Israeli military actions against Palestinians contrasts starkly with ongoing sanctions on Russia and Iran.
    • Carney’s speech is interpreted as marketing rhetoric, lacking substantive policy change.
    • Historically, Carney’s references (e.g., Peloponnesian War, “Power of the Powerless”) reflect a lament over America’s hegemonic exploitation and the need for alternatives, hinting at pivoting toward China as a new strategic partner.
 
Then there's Vladimir Putin giving Trump a pat in the back on his intentions with both Denmark and his Peace Board thingy.

Denmark always treated Greenland ‘like a colony’ – Putin

“Denmark has always treated Greenland like a colony, and treated it quite harshly, if not to say cruelly,”Putin said at a meeting with Russia’s National Security Council in the Kremlin on Wednesday.

Putin offers $1bn to Trump’s ‘peace board’​

Moscow is ready to contribute to US President Donald Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ initiative, President Vladimir Putin told the Russian Security Council on Wednesday. He suggested donating $1 billion to the body out of the Russian assets frozen in the US to support the recovery of the Palestinian enclave.

The initiative envisages an international council to manage funding, security, and political coordination in Gaza during a transitional period following a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The body will work alongside a Palestinian technocratic administration. Trump came up with the idea after the US brokered the truce last year.

Russia could provide $1 billion for the organization “right now, even before we decide whether we’ll take part… in the work of the Board of Peace,” the Russian president said, citing Moscow’s “special relations with the people of Palestine.”

The sum could be taken “from the Russian assets frozen by the previous [US] administration,” he added. Moscow “has always supported and continues to support any efforts aimed at strengthening international stability,” Putin stated.
 
I think it's easy to miss the point. What we are seeing is the world trying to find a way out of the empire, not without clumsy and futile attempts by vassals, who are nothing more than colonists who indignantly accuse the US of colonialism. Even the emerging non-colonial powers of multipolarism, such as Russia and China, have their difficulties given the inextricable web of interdependence that actually exists. I think it is very interesting, regardless of political beliefs, which are not only current but also, at the same time, completely OBSOLETE, and not just now, But still determine the points of assemblage of reality. Infinite repetition of the pattern. How interesting.
 
I don't know why Carney's speech gave the impression of populism/nationalism, Canada is not independent, it's a British protectorate. Carney's remarks came almost at the same time as the Belgian PM, talking about the US : "Being a happy vassal is one thing, being a miserable slave is something else". It doesn't seem to me to be a purely "canadian" response but a concerted response in the Euro sphere.
Indeed. Charles III is the King of Canada and Commander-in-Chief of the Canadian Armed Forces, after all. And I'm pretty sure Mark Carney is a full on royalist.
To understand America's relationship with Canada is to also understand America's relationship with Britain and Britain's relationship with Canada. I think this 3-way relationship thing really snags on Trump.
 
Upon further reflexion, re-reading the Carney speech, I have concluded that it is nothing more than a large, steaming pile of horse hockey. It is dishonest, hypocritical and driven by virtue signalling that is designed to elicit the kind of approval it has received. It has actually been compared to MLK's "I Have a Dream" speech, believe it or not. Probably by a paid troll, or a bot.

First, he explains how countries like Canada benefitted from the "old order", which he compares to communism, with a straight face.

"For decades, countries like Canada prospered under what we called the rules-based international order. We joined its institutions, praised its principles, and benefited from its predictability. We could pursue values-based foreign policies under its protection."

"We participated in the rituals. And largely avoided calling out the gaps between rhetoric and reality."

"Havel called this “living within a lie.” The system’s power comes not from its truth but from everyone’s willingness to perform as if it were true."


Many have interpreted this as an admission that countries were turning a blind eye to the abuses of power perpetrated around the world by the US because they were benefitting from that relationship. However, he says the following in contradiction to such an admission:


"Today, I’ll talk about the rupture in the world order, the end of a nice story, and the beginning of a brutal reality where geopolitics among the great powers is not subject to any constraints." - A nice story? But you said it was about ignoring the rhetoric and living within a lie.

"Canada was amongst the first to hear the wake-up call, leading us to fundamentally shift our strategic posture."

"Canadians know that our old, comfortable assumption that our geography and alliance memberships automatically conferred prosperity and security is no longer valid."

"And there is another truth: if great powers abandon even the pretence of rules and values for the unhindered pursuit of their power and interests, the gains from “transactionalism” become harder to replicate. Hegemons cannot continually monetize their relationships."

"Every day we are reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry. That the rules-based order is fading."


He's making it sound like the great powers (the US in particular) not being subject to any constraints is something new!! Really? So leaders of western countries have been totally unaware that the US has been committing crimes around the world for at least the past 80 years, and that they've never been punished? So... we didn't know what was going on until now? (That sounds familiar... covid, anyone?)

People on this forum know full-well what's really been going on, so I'm not going to waste your time getting into that. So let's look at his proposed solutions.


"In a world of great power rivalry, the countries in between have a choice: to compete with each other for favour or to combine to create a third path with impact."

"As I said, such classic risk management comes at a price, but that cost of strategic autonomy, of sovereignty, can also be shared. Collective investments in resilience are cheaper than everyone building their own fortress. Shared standards reduce fragmentation. Complementarities are positive sum."

"Middle powers must act together because if you are not at the table, you are on the menu."


All he seems to be proposing is the same globalism only without including the US and Russia. But apparently China's okay as a partner, human rights abuses and all. And the fact that China is pretty tight with Russia doesn't seem to be a problem, either.

He mentions that doing all this will come at a price - "... such classic risk management comes at a price, but that cost of strategic autonomy, of sovereignty, can also be shared." But wait. What did he say near the beginning of his speech?


"But I also submit to you that other countries, particularly middle powers like Canada, are not powerless. They have the capacity to build a new order that embodies our values, like respect for human rights, sustainable development, solidarity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of states."


Apparently his plan has the capacity to build autonomy and sovereignty, but comes with a LOSS of autonomy and sovereignty. That doesn't sound too coherent. And that loss of autonomy and sovereignty? No problem, because we'll all suffer that loss together! Kumbaya!

Which brings me to the virtue signalling.


"Our new approach rests on what Alexander Stubb has termed “values-based realism” – or, to put it another way, we aim to be principled and pragmatic."

"Principled in our commitment to fundamental values: sovereignty and territorial integrity, the prohibition of the use of force except when consistent with the UN Charter, respect for human rights.
Pragmatic in recognising that progress is often incremental, that interests diverge, that not every partner shares our values."

"Canada is calibrating our relationships so their depth reflects our values."

"We are no longer relying on just the strength of our values, but also on the value of our strength." - Soundbite.

"To help solve global problems, we are pursuing variable geometry— different coalitions for different issues, based on values and interests." - Variable geometry... okay.


In my opinion, this simply translates to, "WE have decent values, the US does not. WE are virtuous, the US is not." It's the same old woke virtue signalling that will appeal to those among the masses who have allowed that mindset to creep into their thinking. As we all know, the woke mindset is all about stripping away everyone's rights in order to help the marginalized groups. At the same time, his words present nothing concrete - nothing specific, nothing defined.

I get the impression that the populations of the middle power countries that sign on to his vague plan may find themselves stripped of all their rights in order to help that coalition of countries, as a whole. This is wokeism, this is globalism, this is communism.

I think special attention should be given to the phrase, "not every partner shares our values". This seems to be the narrative that will permit partnerships with China and other abusive regimes, which really means staying with the way of the "old order" of turning a blind eye to human rights abuses simply because we are benefitting from the relationship. Although I think it will eventually be more about joining in on the abuse.

All in all, it sounds to me like Carney has no problem with the big boys bullying the little countries as long as Canada benefits, and Canada doesn't get bullied. But now it's getting bullied, and that's unacceptable. Pure hypocrisy.
 
"not every partner shares our values"
Spending on NATO seems not to be a Canadian value. Has Mark Carney ever admitted that Canada hasn't honored the NATO 2% defense spending guideline for 30+ years? With that, it seems surprising that Canada was accepted as the first non-European nation to join the EU's Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative, unless it's considered that an awful lot of countries just want less to do with the USA.
 
Back
Top Bottom