Possibility of Being and Approaching Infinity,
Thanks for your constructive comments!
I don’t want this thread to drown in energy draining discussion, but i would like to shortly summarize (long read though
).
Stalin is a unique historical ‘phenomenon’ which built/made our great country in the last century (from peasants to space and we are still ‘eating/surviving on his heritage’).
I understand why most forumites, living mostly in western countries, evaluate him as tyrant. Sorry for such analogy, but you were ‘breastfed’ with that idea/myth/propaganda. He was not angel, of course (by the way as Caesar - also killed people/enemies. Righteous anger called?).
In that circumstances as my country was in 20-30-40 and futher on - was totally surrounded by enemy ‘predators’ (i am talking about elites, not the ordinary people that were persuaded/‘zombied’ that way). He even managed to use capitalist contradictions/difference in their aims (most of them were feeding Hitler) - attract western investments, technology for the industrialization (genius move). By the way interesting from the point of view sts/sto balance (circles within circles, grey zone in the middle etc. on top
ruling organizations on our Big blue marble).
He made an impossible, Russia not only defeated fascism, though only temporarily ( as we know, that nazis offsprings re-conquered most of the country’s top positions), as i wrote previously - he disrupted the trial run organised by 4d sts intended for humanity premature invasion/ ‘destruction’.
Now, step back a little - reflect and deeply think about it.
Stemming from this, could most of the rubbish/lies/bloodthirsty myths about him by the western schwabs and even our oligarchs elite - be the reason/motivation for this? Please answer for yourself.
As you said that we (with Fursov) have bias towards soviet era. Yes, i am russian, who is proud and love my country, people, incredible and great history including hardships and drawbacks. As absolute majority of russians. Paradox, don’t you think? Imagine, descendants of people whom as propaganda says were killed by Stalin by tens of millions - are grateful to him till today? (Stockholm’s syndrom on country scale maybe?!).
For instance, have you heard of Pol Pot of Cambodia, real psycho butcher, being adored? Hmm..
Even our youth despite of destroyed (by western manuals and still not cancelled) modern education system with Stalin being slandered - started digging and came to a positive evaluation
T.C., from your permission, i may assume that i deserved your tirade.
Dear forumites, i perfectly understand that each of us is of different nation, background, experience, but as we all met here, meaning our souls were not satisfied with ‘matrix’ (as Gurdjieff wrote (paraphrasing) you have to disappoint in the deal of your life, does not matter what sphere). It leads to the wake up call of soul/destiny. And as Challenge accepted, we start searching/digging for answers why the picture is not full. In my case, the Russian historical, modern time themes - the mosaic just does not add up (if applying forum’s view). Me and a lot of people i know were many times rethinking the picture close to your narrative, but the real deals of our leadership (not their words from mass media) just did not hold the stress tests and positively ‘desired’ picture was everytime shattered to pieces through constant dissonance.
Here goes excerpts from the sociological study, which might be found interesting and useful (excuse me for difficult format, had to on smartphone auto translate the text from paper version-goes by page):
‘Improving the quality of individual judgments’
Expert forecasting research reveals that the average quality of individual judgments varies considerably. In the experiments that were carried out, individual specialists systematically produced better results than the rest of the participants. This stimulated the search for characteristics that would explain the observed differences. Their identification provides the basis for the selection of the most capable of forecasting experts. In addition , targeted cultivation of the necessary skills can be incorporated into analyst training programs . The Psychological Profile of Expert Forecasters The Good Judgment Project ( GJP ) led by F. Tetlock , B. Mellers and D. Moore made a significant contribution to identifying the personality traits inherent in successful forecasters - more than 4 thousand volunteers. They were asked to evaluate the probability of political and economic events on the horizon of several months. In the first four years, almost a million forecasts were collected and compared with subsequent events. Each year, the organizers singled out the top 2% of participants as "superforecasters". An analysis of their psychological portraits revealed features that increase the accuracy of assessments. They were distinguished by permanent dissatisfaction with the results, combined with a passion for self-improvement. Equally important are openness of thinking, rejection of dogmatism, striving for the synthesis of opposing opinions. Internal uncertainty made superforecasters sensitive to new information. This difference persists regardless of the type and subject of forecasts. It is also stable over time
(Footnotes).
(see: Tetlock P.E. Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know? Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005; Mellers B. et al. Identifying and cultivating superforecasters as a method of improving probabilistic predictions // Perspectives on Psychological Science 2015 Vol 10 3 P 267-281) The results of the project are reflected in research articles and a popular science publication (see: Mellers B. et al. Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament // Psychological science. 2014. Vol. 25. No. 5. P. 1106-1115; Mellers B. et al., The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics // Joumal of experimental psychology: applied, 2015. Vol. 21. No. 1; Mellers B. et al., Identifying and cultivating superforecasters as a Tetlock P.E., Gardner D. Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction N.Y.: Random House, 2016 ) .
Formal logic and estimates of probability
Mathematical mentality is a serious help in foreign policy forecasting. Studies have shown that minimal training in probability theory and cognitive psychology markedly improves the quality of assessments. The developments carried out confirm that expressing the probability of events as a percentage, rather than verbal estimates, improves the accuracy of forecasts. It also benefited from the analyst's tendency to break down a problem into many sub-questions and formulate a general conclusion after answering each one. A useful skill in forecasting is regularly adjusting estimates over time. The strategy of small but frequent adjustments (involving revising the probability of occurrence of events by a few percent at a time) is preferred. It follows Bayes's theorem, which requires that conclusions be updated as new information becomes available, taking into account the prior probability of the predicted event occurring, the degree of expectation of new information in the context of the prior probability, and the reliability of new information. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Along with the elements of formal logic , the method of analysis of competing hypotheses ( Analysis of Competing Hypotheses , ACH ) is applied . It reduces subjective bias through algorithmization. Initially, the specialist identifies options for the development of events. After that, collects evidence that characterizes the likelihood of their implementation. Forms a matrix in which columns correspond to options and rows to evidence. Matches each evidence with each option, calculating a rebuttal index.
(Footnotes)
Examples of verbal assessments are expressions: "with high probability", "probably", "unlikely", etc. (see: Friedman J.A. et al. The value of precision in probability assessment: Evidence from a large - scale geopolitical forecasting tournament // International Studies Quarterly. 2018. Vol. 62. No. 2. P. 410-422; Dhami M.K. , Mandel D. R. Words or numbers - Communicating probability in intelligence analysis // American Psychologist 2021 Vol 76 No 3) . For example , when discussing the plan for the landing of anti - Castro rebels in Cuba in 1961 , the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff described the operation as having a " fair chance of success " . Subsequently, he admitted that in the assessment he proceeded from the fact that the probability of failure was 3 to 1. Meanwhile, the US president took the expression "substantial chances of success “ as an assurance that the operation would most likely lead to the overthrow of F. Castro. Logically, Bayes' theorem is expressed as the formula (please see the foto below-could not insert it here), where P ( A \ B ) is the probability of judgment A given the event B ; P ( B \ A ) - the probability of the event B under the condition that the judgment A is true; P ( A ) - assessment of the probability of proposition A before the event in occurred; P(B) is the probability that event B actually happened. Thus, the Theorem formalizes an intuitively understandable, but often ignored dependence: the less expected event B was, based on previous assumptions, and the more reliable our knowledge about it, the more it should change the idea of the situation. Heuer R. J. Psychology of intelligence analysis. Washington DC: Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1999.
Collective Forms of Forecasting
The predominance of individual forms of analysis and forecasting in international political research is largely due to established practices and resource constraints. It is also methodologically supported by fears of erosion of responsibility in collective work. The corresponding risks are reflected in the concept of " groupthink " proposed by Irving Janis . The latter linked errors in assessments of the situation with the desire for conformity of the members of the team. Subsequent research has demonstrated the propensity for small, tightly integrated groups to exclude people with dissimilar views. In the future, similar dynamics was traced in the formation of information bubbles in social networks. The psychologically social nature of the individual prompts him to value agreement in his own environment, even to the detriment of rational argumentation. However, the effect of such distortions decreases as the stakes in the discussion increase. Working in Small Teams In the GJP studies cited, the prediction accuracy of individual analysts and expert teams was compared. The latter showed the best results. Groups made up of superforecasters received especially large increases. Thus , collective forms of expertise increase the quality of assessments , first of all , of individually strong specialists . Interaction helps them synthesize large amounts of information and view situations from more perspectives. Teams of 12 participants were formed in GJP. In practice, teams of 2-5 specialists are more often created. Grouping experts into permanent teams .....
(Footnotes)
Janis I. Victims of groupthink : a psychological study of foreign - policy decisions and fiascoes . Boston, Houghton, Mifflin, 1972. Flaxman S. , Goel S. , Rao J.M. Filter bubbles , echo chambers , and online news consumption // Public opinion quarterly . 2016 Vol. 80. No. S1. P. 298-320. Tetlock P.E. , Gardner D. Superforecasting : The art and science of prediction . N.Y.: Random House, 2016.
....is just one of the forms of collective work. The brainstorming technique used to build scenarios for the development of the situation 5 has also received recognition. Its feature is the ban on criticizing the proposals of other participants at an early stage of discussion. Brainstorming engages the tendency of the mind to generate ideas under the influence of external stimulation. Opposite functions are performed by the methodology referred to in foreign practice as " red team analysis " ( Red Team Analysis ). It is used at the final stage of the preparation of forward - looking reports , when outside experts are invited for an independent assessment , who did not participate in writing them . Bringing a fresh perspective helps to identify inconsistencies in logic, gaps in argumentation, and unreflected assumptions at the heart of the conclusions drawn, enhancing the quality of the final product. Domestic developments in the field of situational analysis solve similar problems. They offer a detailed plan for holding meetings, during which expert discussions of issues voiced in advance take place on the basis of a rigidly structured regulation. One of the key requirements for conducting situational analyzes is the variety of profiles of specialists involved. This provides a synthesis of different approaches to the problem, which contributes to the accuracy of forecasts.
.......
On Cass community, led by Divine Cosmic Mind-
great task has been assigned. Cs many years are calling for networking. Because each of us, imo, might bring a grain of sand/piece/truth into the puzzle
). 
. There is a huge difference between a picture on TV and how people are coping to live ‘decently’. Two parallel realities basically. 
