Published online: 18 October 2004; | doi:10.1038/news041018-3
Unseen comets may raise impact risk for Earth
Mark Peplow
Thousands of dark objects could be hiding in our Solar System
The Solar System could be teeming with almost invisible comets,
according to some astronomers' calculations. If they are right, such
extra comets would significantly increase the risk of a catastrophic
impact with Earth.These objects have never been observed, but the
astronomers argue that 'dark comets' provide a likely explanation for
an astronomical puzzle: we can only see a tiny fraction of the comets
that theory predicts.Astronomers think that many comets come from the
Oort cloud, a field of billions of icy objects that lies up to
100,000 times farther away from the Sun than the Earth does and marks
the outer boundary of our Solar System. The icy objects are sometimes
driven towards the Sun by gravitational tides generated by the
shifting masses of stars in our Galaxy. When this happens they become
comets, orbiting the Sun every 20 to 200 years on paths that lie at
an angle to the planets' orbits. Given the size of the Oort cloud,
astronomers have calculated that there should be about 3,000 comets
in these orbits, 400 times more than are actually observed.
The common explanation for this discrepancy is that the comets
quickly disintegrate into smaller lumps after just one or two orbits,
says Bill Napier, a recently retired astronomer who worked at the
Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland. But his mathematical model now
suggests that, if this were true, the debris should cause many more
major meteorite showers on Earth than we see, perhaps up to 30 every
year.In a paper to be published in the Monthly Notices of the Royal
Astronomical Society1, Napier concludes that the predicted comets are
out there after all; we just cannot see them. Little fluffy
cloudsNapier worked with Chandra Wickramasinghe, an astronomer at
Cardiff University in Wales, to explain the comets' invisibility.
Wickramasinghe has suggested that Sedna, the most distant body
identified in our Solar System, could have an orbiting twin that is
dark, fluffy and made of tarry carbon compounds (see "Sedna 'has
invisible moon'"). As Sedna may be a member of the Oort cloud, Napier
thinks that other members of the cloud could be equally dark. Once
ejected, the tarry comets would simply suck up visible light, he
says, remaining cloaked in darkness. "Photons go in, but they don't
come out.""It's an intriguing possibility," says Alan Fitzsimmons, an
astrophysicist at Queen's University of Belfast in Northern
Ireland. "But while we have seen dark objects before, Bill is
proposing something much, much darker than anything we've ever
detected."NASA's Stardust probe, which is bringing back samples of
dust from the comet Wild 2, lends some support to Napier's idea. In
June this year it reported finding lots of tarry carbon compounds
spraying from the comet2.Infrared challengeThe dark comets would
present a major challenge to astronomers searching the skies for
objects that might collide with the Earth. "They're so black you
can't see the damn things," says Napier. "These things will just come
out of the dark and hit you with no warning. It looks as if we're
dealing with a substantial impact hazard that people haven't clicked
into yet."
However, although they reflect almost no visible light, the dark
comets should give out a tiny glow of heat, visible as infrared
radiation. The infrared Spitzer Space Telescope, which has been
operating from Earth orbit for just over a year, has not seen any
dark comets. But this could be because it focuses on very small,
distant parts of the sky, says Napier. Fitzsimmons disagrees, saying
that if these objects existed in the numbers proposed by Napier,
either Spitzer or near-Earth object surveys such as Spacewatch, based
at the University of Arizona in Tucson, would have picked them up by
now.A new space telescope might provide the answer. Earlier this
month, NASA announced that it would launch an orbiting infrared
telescope called the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) in
2008, which will map much wider areas of the sky. Given enough time,
it should be able to detect the dark comets, says Napier.
References 1. Napier W. M., Wickramasinghe J. T. & Wickramasinghe
N. C. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc, published online, doi:10.1111/j.1365-
2966.2004.08309 (2004). 2. Kissel J., Krueger F. R., Silen J. &
Clark B. C. Science, 304. 1774 - 1776 (2004). | Article | PubMed |
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