Israel-Palestine War: Hamas Breaks Out of Gaza, Israel Responds With Genocide

Ben said:
Iran has now demonstrated its capabilities to a greater degree. Had they used the same barrage of missiles with more powerful warheads then they may have caused significant and extensive damage. They saturated air defence, covered a wide area and used some more advanced ballistics, apparently also hypersonics. It doesn't seem that very significant damage has happened. This remains to be seen, some of tonight's hits were bigger explosions than others, and much talk of offshore gas platforms, airfields, military bases etc. We'll see - up to a point, Israel is hardly interested in broadcasting this. Civilian casualties seem to have been carefully avoided. They are obviously still keen to avoid escalation into a wider regional war. Presumably they had to do something, there were protests in Iran recently and growing domestic frustration about the endless talk and no action.

The problem is that it seems Israel does want an escalation, so they now have the opportunity to respond accordingly. Are they convinced of their ability to do that without provoking a real Iranian response? Was Iran actually attempting to 'restore deterrence' here, or were they convinced that Israel will escalate anyway?
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My reading of the situation is along these lines. In the sense that Iran didn't want to inflict real military damage, but rather make a statement (mainly to its own people and the Arab world), it was a show. But in the sense that there is the real risk of further escalation (because that's what Netanyahu wants), it's not a show at all. The Iranians obviously know that they are dealing with a 'mad dog' country, so they are trying to walk a fine line of not being seen as bullied, yet not giving enough excuses for a larger conflict involving the US.

Were they trying to restore deterrence? Perhaps. The problem with deterrence is that it implies that both parties are rational enough to not risk their own destruction, and I'm not sure that people like Netanyahu fall in that category. It's sort of similar to the situation between Russia and NATO. Russia keeps warning them that escalation is not a good idea, but the neocon types in Washington as well as some European leaders keep thinking 'it will be alright, Putin is bluffing'. That mindset invalidates deterrence. Interestingly, Western professional militaries understand this much better than the pathocrats mentioned above.
 
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1841207687029408217

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841245708516802877

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841219156517011916

SKYNEWS
59 minutes ago #MiddleEast #hezbollah #Israel
"With waves of Iranian missiles striking down into Israel, the IDF say they "will retaliate".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1841236493802881417

Suposed Chart of Irans Missle Capabilities
War intel
x.com
"Iranian missiles used to strike Israel and their main performance characteristics. The most modern and dangerous is the hypersonic Fattah-2 - there are very few air defense systems in the world that can effectively combat it".
 
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