Nagorno-Karabakh War - Armenia vs Azerbaijan

bjorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member

Isreal really shouldn't if they know what's good for them. I bet that if they do Russia will active the S-400 and the S-300 they gave to Syria. An agreement was probably struck between the two that Russia will not use these weapons against the Israel air force operating above Syrian skies.

Reports are that the Azerbaijan Air Force uses a lot of dummy drones as bait for the Armenia Air Defense Force to detect the whereabout of its SA-8/Osa-AK SAM systems and identify real ones from mock-ups in. Russia has flown in units of the more formidable PantersS1 (Anti Air) to deal with the threat.

As long as fighting continues over this territorial dispute, Russia will not intervene directly. It is important to them that they also maintain good relations with Azerbaijan, as best as possible at least. If not they might jump in the arms of NATO. Just look at Georgia. They are also negotiating a possible membership.

That said, the geopolitical, cultural and economic sensitivity of the Russians to the Caucasus cannot be overestimated. If they think there is a real threat against Armenia then they will respond. OSIT.

For now the situations is as follows:

Armenia could trigger its collective defense pact with Russia, the latter which also has a sprawling military base at Gyumri in the northwest part of the country, but on Monday the Armenian Ambassador to Moscow, Vardan Toganyan, has said the escalation of fighting with Azerbaijan has not reached that point yet.

 
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youlik

Jedi Council Member

Армения и Азербайджан договорились о перемирии в Карабахе с 12 часов​

02:51 10.10.2020 (обновлено: 06:43 10.10.2020)
Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to a truce in Karabakh from 12 o'clock
02:51 10.20 (updated: 06:43 10.20)
MOSCOW, Oct 10 - RIA Novosti. Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to a ceasefire in Karabakh from 12: 00 on October 10, Russian foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said after ten-hour talks in Moscow.
"In response to the appeal of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and in accordance with the agreements of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan (Ilham - ed.) Aliyev and the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia (Nikola - ed.) Pashinyan, the parties agreed on the following steps. First: a cease - fire is announced from 12:00 on October 10, 2020 for humanitarian purposes for the exchange of prisoners of war and other detained persons and the bodies of the dead through the mediation of the ICRC," Lavrov said.

Baku and Yerevan also agreed to start "substantive negotiations with the aim of reaching a peaceful settlement as soon as possible." At the same time, the parties confirmed the immutability of the format of the negotiation process on Karabakh.
As follows from the text of the joint document, specific parameters of the ceasefire will be agreed upon additionally.
The talks between Russian, Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign Ministers Sergey Lavrov, Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and Jeyhun Bayramov on the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh were held in a completely closed format. Before the meeting, the parties refrained from making statements.
 

bjorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
The US has sent instructors, equipment and weapons to Baku after Russia decided to send peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh.

In English:


Well played by Russia, but I think that it should be obvious by now that Azerbeidzjan only used the ceasefire to rearm and bomb Armenian anti-air defenses who didn't expected to be attacked.
 

Ageeva

Jedi
Well played by Russia, but I think that it should be obvious by now that Azerbeidzjan only used the ceasefire to rearm and bomb Armenian anti-air defenses who didn't expected to be attacked.
The Azerbaijani leadership has shown its true colors. They're about as committed to upholding ceasefires as Ukraine. Russian peacekeepers would be ideal as it would be far from a toothless UN peacekeeping operation. They will be well able to defend themselves if attacked. However, it would take agreement by both Armenia and Azerbaijan to allow a deployment of Russian peacekeepers and I can't see the Azerbaijani military agreeing as long as they feel they can make more territorial gains. Russia may have no choice but to intervene anyway if the situation continues to escalate.
A Russian intervention is something I'm sure the war planners in Azerbaijan and Turkey considered possible but unlikely before they attacked. Now that scenario is becoming even more possible What will they do then?
 

dmnlksm

Padawan Learner
Armenia has violated the truce for the second time. They are breaking the truce by attacking the areas where civilians live, by making missile attacks.

And I repeat, the videos seen on twitter belong to old times, these are the wrong sources.


 

Ursus Minor

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Armenia has violated the truce for the second time. They are breaking the truce by attacking the areas where civilians live, by making missile attacks.

And I repeat, the videos seen on twitter belong to old times, these are the wrong sources.



The Hurriyet website demands some clicks to be readable, do I choose 'Izin ver'?
 

bjorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
The tide may be turning for Turkish armed drones in the warfare against Armenia. It seems that Russia has start using it cutting edge electronic warfare weapons. Reports state that at least 9 so far this week have been knocked out of the sky.

 

Ursus Minor

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
The US has suggested to send Scandinavian peacekeepers (i.e. US forces) to Nagorno-Karabakh.

30 October 2020

How to interpret this presstv paragraph?

A return to Azerbaijan of the surrounding territories was first agreed in 2007, under the so-called Madrid Principles, in exchange for a self-proclaimed government of Karabakh with a corridor linking the region to Armenia.

What are these mentioned territories? Are they the part of Nagorno-Karabakh which is mainly populated by Azeris? Giving them back to Azerbaijan would again turn NK into an isolated territory again as before 1992.

Would the Azeris be satisfied with that or are they intent on occupying the whole of NK?
 

Ursus Minor

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
The tide may be turning for Turkish armed drones in the warfare against Armenia. It seems that Russia has start using it cutting edge electronic warfare weapons. Reports state that at least 9 so far this week have been knocked out of the sky.

This may indeed be the turn of the tide since the Turks have indeed made fun of the famous S-300 system by playing cheap tricks on it and taking it out. Russia is forced to prove that the Armenians have mishandled the system or it has to admit that the S-300 has a serious flaw since this is a much sought after weapons system.

According to edam.org.tr Armenia deploys at least four S-300 strategic system divisions which are said to have been moved to border areas...

At present, a Russian contingent enjoys almost full control over the Armenian air and air defense operations, especially at higher echelons. This control extends to the SAM-centric air defense of Armenia, married to the Russian SAM composition in the 102nd base, as well as the forward-deployed Mig-29 air-wing of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

It will be hard for Russia to keep on playing a neutral role now, I guess.
 

bjorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
This may indeed be the turn of the tide since the Turks have indeed made fun of the famous S-300 system by playing cheap tricks on it and taking it out.

From what I know is that they took out one battery and not an entire S-300 system. (and maybe it was a dummy used as bait) On Armenia soil. Had the Armenians responded it wouldn't have forced the Russians to engage. So from their perspective this works in their benefit. Not saying they did it deliberately but I don't know. The skies are now propably off limit for any drones, Turkish and Isreali. This is a major win for the Armenians.

It will be hard for Russia to keep on playing a neutral role now, I guess.

It will be. But if the Turks didn't took out that one S300 battery on Armenia soil the Russians propably wouldn't have engaged their cutting edge electronic warfare weapons. The Russians are a reasonable folk. Don't exceed your boundaries.
 
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