Near-Earth objects and close calls

Altair

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Asteroid swarm: Nasa detects 16 space rocks hurtling towards Earth this week

The largest asteroid from the group is bigger than the Great Pyramid of Giza in Egypt. According to the agency’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), Earth will see a total of seven asteroids fly past on October 8. As noted by CNEOS, these asteroids are 2019 TU, 2019 TW1, 2019 RK, 2019 TC1, 2019 SB6, 2019 TM and 2019 TS.

These asteroids will arrive starting early on Tuesday.

Although most of these asteroids will approach Earth from very safe distances, one of them is expected to fly close to the planet.

According to CNEOS, 2019 T1 will zip past the planet from 0.00378 astronomical units or roughly 351,000 miles away, which is just slightly greater than the distance between the Earth and the Moon.

The next group of asteroids will enter Earth’s locality on October 9.


These asteroids, namely 2019 TV1, 2019 TZ and 2019 SL7 will be heading past Earth early in the morning UK time on this date.

With diameters ranging from 29 to 38 meters, the approaching asteroids are relatively small but would deadly if they made impact.

Asteroid, 2019 TV1 and 2019 TZ will fly past Earth from millions of miles away while 2019 SL7 will approach Earth from a distance of only 0.00363 astronomical units or about 337,000 miles away.

Only one asteroid will zip past Earth on October 10.

It is known as 2019 SX5, this asteroid is the largest one from the group with an estimated diameter of 140 meters.

This Great Pyramid sized asteroid will approach the Earth on October 10.

It should stay at a distance of 0.04533 astronomical units or about 4.2 million miles away.

On Saturday, October 12, Earth will be visited by four more asteroids.

Compared to 2019 SX5, the asteroids 2019 TN1, 2019 SK8, 2019 SV9 and 2019 SE2 are significantly smaller with diameters averaging from 25 to 90 meters.

These four asteroids are expected to visit Earth’s vicinity early on Saturday UK time.

The last asteroid that will fly by Earth this week is called 2019 TT1.

This 38-meter-wide asteroid will approach Earth on October 13 at a distance of 0.00744 astronomical units or about 692,000 miles away.

Nasa has said SL7 will fly around 1.4 lunar distances from the moon - around 538,162 kolmoetres away, meaning the rock will be classed as a near-Earth object (NEO).

The distance will mean Nasa study the asteroid as it passes.

Nasa describes NEOs as comets and asteroids which have been "nudged by gravitational attraction of nearby planets into orbets that allow them to enter the Earth's neighbourhood".

The space agency added: "If we wish to know the composition of the primordial mixture from which the planets formed, we must determine the chemical constituents of the leftover debris from the formation process - the coments and asteroids".

It was recently revealed that NASA is stepping up its preparations to deal with the “God of Chaos” rock Apophis which could arrive in the next 10 years.

Even SpaceX founder Elon Musk has responded by issuing a chilling assessment over our planet’s defence capabilities against artificial intelligence going wrong and an asteroid impact.

Mr Musk said we “currently have no defence” against these huge space rocks.

An asteroid the size of Apophis has the potential to create devastation on a planetary scale.

The last time we saw that was 66 million years ago, when the dinosaurs were wiped out.

Q: (L) Well, thanks a lot! (Ailen) That's a nice way of saying, "No dice!" (L) Okay, as you know, we had a wonderful little exploding comet fragment out there in Russia that did some serious damage and injured lots of people. I'm not glad that it injured lots of people, but I just think it was pretty interesting that this happened like within three days of our new book "Comets and The Horns of Moses" being released in hardcopy. So, I guess the first question is: Anything to tell us about the exploding comet fragment, or whatever they wanna call it? It could have an asteroid, or it could have a comet fragment, or whatever?

A: Denatured comet but who's counting?

Q: (L) Okay. Is that all you're gonna say?

A: Just wait for the next one! That one will be a doozie! And it has "friends!"
 

Pashalis

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Asteroid swarm: Nasa detects 16 space rocks hurtling towards Earth this week


Q: (L) Well, thanks a lot! (Ailen) That's a nice way of saying, "No dice!" (L) Okay, as you know, we had a wonderful little exploding comet fragment out there in Russia that did some serious damage and injured lots of people. I'm not glad that it injured lots of people, but I just think it was pretty interesting that this happened like within three days of our new book "Comets and The Horns of Moses" being released in hardcopy. So, I guess the first question is: Anything to tell us about the exploding comet fragment, or whatever they wanna call it? It could have an asteroid, or it could have a comet fragment, or whatever?

A: Denatured comet but who's counting?

Q: (L) Okay. Is that all you're gonna say?

A: Just wait for the next one! That one will be a doozie! And it has "friends!"

The article above is a bummer, see below!

Notice the rest of the statement by the C's, not quoted above:

Q: (L) Well, thanks a lot! (Ailen) That's a nice way of saying, "No dice!" (L) Okay, as you know, we had a wonderful little exploding comet fragment out there in Russia that did some serious damage and injured lots of people. I'm not glad that it injured lots of people, but I just think it was pretty interesting that this happened like within three days of our new book "Comets and The Horns of Moses" being released in hardcopy. So, I guess the first question is: Anything to tell us about the exploding comet fragment, or whatever they wanna call it? It could have an asteroid, or it could have a comet fragment, or whatever?

A: Denatured comet but who's counting?

Q: (L) Okay. Is that all you're gonna say?

A: Just wait for the next one! That one will be a doozie! And it has "friends!"

Q: (L) Can you give us a time estimate on that? [laughter] (Belibaste) And location? (L) Location, maybe? (Andromeda) Roughly? Ballpark figures? (Belibaste) Plus size?

A: We would have liked to arrange things so that it could have hit [birds start chirping a lot in the background] on the very day of the book release, however things just don't work that way in the STO reality. Thus, the same applies to predictions of future impacts.

Q: (L) That was a nice way of saying, "No dice!" So there is more out there that's coming, but you can't tell us exactly when, and the next one's gonna be a doozie; so we know that much. Are you saying you know that much?

A: Yes. Please put all former clues together for ballpark figure, keeping in mind that the universe is open thus there will always be variables.

So the above seems to be a prediction about a "future impact". The answer came in context of discussing the Chelyabinsk impact of 2013 in russia in the atmosphere. So that probable future impact might be at least as severe/noticeable as the Chelyabinsk one, while it has "friends".

Also notice that in actuality (from the date of NASA; see here), there are 26 NEO objects scheduled to come very close to earth till November 3rd, out of which a staggering number of 23 NEO objects were discovered just withing the last month! The earliest was discovered September 3rd 2019... Out of those 23 objects, 3 objects are estimated to be between 7 m and 25 m in Diameter; 10 objects are estimated to be between 12 m and 44 m; 6 objects are estimated to be between 20 m and 63 m; 2 objects are estimated to be between 35 m and 92 m and 2 objects are estimated to be between 55 m and 140 m...

The 3 objects out of the total of 26 that are scheduled to come very close to earth till November 3rd and were not discovered within the last month, are the following:

- 162082 (1998 HL1) [discovered 18. April 1998] with an estimated diameter between 440 m - 990 m
- (2017 TG5) [discovered 14. October 2017] with an estimated diameter between 25 m - 57 m
- (2015 JD1) [discovered 11. May 2015] with an estimated diameter between 200 m - 450 m

My layman guess is that some of the smaller objects that were just discovered might travel with one of the two bigger junks listed above.

The 23 object that were discovered just within the last month and now are coming pretty close to earth, were discovered in following sequence:

1 object discovered on September 3rd
2 objects discovered on September 6
2 objects discovered between September 20 and September 22
2 objects discovered on September 24th
2 objects discovered on September 26
3 objects discovered between September 28 and September 30 (every day one new discovery)
1 object discovered on October 2nd
5 objects discovered on October 3rd
5 objects discovered on October 5th

So just within the last week, 12 out of those 23 objects were discovered that are now coming pretty close to earth! Things might be picking up...
 
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Vulcan59

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And not to forget the 20 new moons of Saturn! - Saturn surpasses Jupiter after the discovery of 20 new moons

213319_web.jpg
 

Pashalis

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Randall Carlson and colleagues discussing the recent close call of „2019 ok“ and the previous huge kilometer sized object discovered with his own moon orbiting it, in the first 17 minutes of his new „Kosmographia“ podcast. See below. Carlson roughly calculates that if „2019 ok“ would have hit, it would have produced the equivalent power of about 28,000 hiroshima bombs (or 19 Tunguska events).

In the words of Carlson:

„People would really be worrying about their ‚save spaces‘ then!“

Carlson also seems to come around the idea now that the difference between Comets and Asteroids might not be as clear cut as it is assumed. He also mentioned that things like these can come in swarms and they discuss the seeming increase of these types of flybys recently:

 

c.a.

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The interactive orbit chart above shows the comet's path through the solar system and its position at the given date. Green and blue lines are shown perpendicular to the ecliptic plane: Green if the path is above the ecliptic plane, blue if it is below. (Left-click and drag to rotate the view; Right-click and drag to move the view; Use scroll wheel to zoom in our out.)

Recently discovered comets
Snip:

The below table lists comets that have been discovered in the past 6 months.
For detailed information about a comet, click on its designation.



2003 YT1

Posted by Paul Roggemans | Oct 18, 2019
This paper has been submitted for publication to Astronomical Journal by Toshihiro Kasuga, Mikiya Sato, Masayoshi Ueda, Yasunori Fujiwara, Chie Tsuchiya, and Jun-ichi Watanabe.
Abstract: We present a
fireball detected in the night sky over Kyoto, Japan on UT 2017 April 28 at 15h 58m 19s by the SonotaCo Network.

The absolute visual magnitude is Mv=−4.10±0.42 mag. Luminous light curves obtain a meteoroid mass m=29±1 g, corresponding to the size as=2.7±0.1 cm. Orbital similarity assessed by D-criterions (cf. DSH=0.0079) has identified a likely parent, the binary near-Earth asteroid (164121) 2003 YT1. The suggested binary formation process is a YORP-driven rotational disintegration (Pravec & Harris 2007).

The asynchronous state indicates the age of < 104 yr, near or shorter than the upper limit to meteoroid stream lifetime. We examine potential dust production mechanisms for the asteroid, including rotational instability, resurfacing, impact, photoionization,radiation pressure sweeping, thermal fracture and sublimation of ice.

We find some of them capable of producing the meteoroid-scale particles. Rotational instability is presumed to cause mass shedding, in consideration of the recent precedents (e.g. asteroid (6478) Gault), possibly releasing mm-cm scale dust particles. Impacts by micrometeorites with size ≃ 1 mm could be a trigger for ejecting the cm-sized particles.

Radiation pressure can sweep out the mm-sized dust particles, while not sufficient for the cm-sized. For the other mechanisms, unprovable or unidentified. The feasibility in the parental aspect of
2003 YT1 is somewhat reconciled with the fireball observation, yielding an insight into how we approach potentially hazardous objects.

You can download this paper for free: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1910.06527.pdf (36 pages).
 
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Pashalis

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This one was just discovered and passed earth very close on Halloween:


Joe wrote the following on Facebook about it:

Next time you read some NASA or media claim along the lines of "don't worry, there are no NEOs that pose any danger for a long time",

just remember, they're full of it.

Just checked it with the NASA's NEO list and it is not listed there. So it seems a whole host of really close approaches (like the one above) is not listed in NASA's NEO Asteroids/Comet section count because there only the ones that have been tracked quite some time before are being listed, not the ones that appeared "out of nowhere" and came very close or even impacted earth and/or its atmosphere in short notice.
 

MikaelYosef

Jedi Master
I have a devil's advocate question (edit: actually two questions), prompted by the latest reported close encounter: ANOTHER one! Chelyabinsk-sized asteroid skims Earth, third close fly-by in 5 days -- Sott.net

Is it possible that this current period of close encounters are statistically normal and that the only reason they are newsworthy is because there are now precedents recorded on film? I'm not a mathematician, physicist or statistician, but looking at this from another viewpoint - there is a lot of empty space in space. These objects and the earth are each travelling at tremendous speeds, and thereby occupying a point of physical space for microseconds at a time. I do understand the idea of cyclic cataclysms, that objects from far away periodically come into our region of space. The +/- of these occurrences are rough though and have a lot of assumptions.

To expand further and to get to my main question - is it possible that what we are witnessing right now is just normal, that it is only because we have the instrumentation and scientific know-how to interpret the recordings; that it is a hyper sensitive media promulgating the shocking and fear/newsworthy stories, that it seems like something is up?
 

goyacobol

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I do understand the idea of cyclic cataclysms, that objects from far away periodically come into our region of space. The +/- of these occurrences are rough though and have a lot of assumptions.

@MikeJoseph82 ,

Yes, I think we have always had to make "assumptions" based on very poor data and our means of measurement.

Session 3 December 1994:
Q: (L) When was the last time a realm border crossed as far as the earth is concerned?

A: As you measure, on Earth, 309,000 years ago.

Q: (L) What does this wave consist of in terms of energy?

A: Feeling.

Q: (L) This wave is feeling? It is a wave of emotion?

A: Hyperkinetic sensate.

Q: (L) What does that mean?

A: All.

Q: (L) We don't understand

A: Too complex for this medium.

I would say we know very little about our "planetary realm" and lack the instruments to measure the known much less the unknown.

Session 1 March 1997:
Q: (A) What causes pulsars? A good question... (L) Do you know? (A) Some nuclear reactions...

A: Neutron "stars."

Q: (A) A neutron star is a pulsar. The question is, what is so particular about neutron stars, because anything which is not understood...

A: Quantum physics...

Q: (T) The answer to what causes neutron stars is in quantum physics? Or, is to be found in quantum physics? Is that what they're saying? (A) Or it is known...

A: Yes.

Q: (L) OK, so, if you look up pulsars, it will tell you, I guess... (A) OK...

A: What was the key premise to your "Noah Syndrome"

Q: (L) The key premise? Transformation...

A: By what means, what causative factor.

Q: (L) Well, the causative factor was bodies of the solar system interacting and exchanging energies. The energies exchanged by the bodies of the solar system having a profound effect upon the life on any of those bodies, such as people on the planet Earth. The emanations of the sun, if the sun were to increase its vibration or its surface, a teeny tiny little bit, the Earth would be so charged with electricity, that... I mean, one solar flare, and everything goes haywire. If the sun oscillates inside - they measure oscillations in it; they have all different periods - what if it has a really major oscillation, like every 3,600 years or so? Because they've measured them in terms of minutes, days, months, years. You have the 11 year cycle, there's the 22 year cycle. There's a whole bunch of different cycles of oscillations in the sun, what if it has a really big one? And what if, when it does that, it pulses? And when it pulses, it so charges the solar system with electricity that all the bodies in the solar system just go haywire! (T) Is that the base premise of... (L) That's the base premise of 'The Noah Syndrome.' (T) OK, folks, there you have it, the base premise of the 'Noah Syndrome' is that the sun pulses regularly.

A: A pulsar pulses at an extremely rapid rate.

Q: (T) It creates a frequency... (L) Well, everything's frequency...

A: Yes.

Q: (T) Well, this was a specific frequency they were looking for. The rate of vibration is the rate of frequency. And it creates a frequency that they said was something that would be beneficial to... (L) No, this location is the beneficial thing, right here, this house.

A: No.

Q: (A) But, I do not understand. The frequency...

A: Your planetary realm.

Truth, Lies, Reality
Quantum uncertainty does not deny us all knowledge about the future. It gives us the tools to make predictions, but only in terms of probabilities.

Bohr and other leading physicists of the Copenhagen School say that objective reality is an ambiguous concept at the quantum level. In physics, our knowledge comes only when we actually measure something, and even then the way we decide to perform the measurement affects the results we obtain.

I think there may be "objects" near earth that are not even "natural". They may not be comets, asteroids or meteors.

Session 4 December 1999:
Q: Now, according to some information posted on the Millennium Group site, there are some photographs that seem to indicate that there IS something anomalous in orbit around the Sun... maybe a new "planet, " or something. Is there a new object in our solar system in a close orbit around the sun?

A: Maybe.

Q: There is conjecture that this object appeared around the time of the passage of the Hale Bopp comet. Is that the case?

A: No.

Q: Is this object that is possibly in orbit around the sun, is it a natural or artificial construction?

A: Latter.


Q Who constructed it?

A: Orion STS.

Q: What is it?

A: HQ.

Q: The Orion Headquarters?

A: For your star system.

Q: Okay, you said "maybe" to this being a "new object." When did it arrive, or when was it placed there?

A: You measure "time" linearly.

Q: Can we give it a "linear" definition, or does it come and go through some sort of portal in terms of time, in a cyclical way, or a variable and selective way?

A: Yes, but it arrived at that coordinate 26730 years ago, sort of.

Q: What is its orbit, or distance from the Sun?

A: 31,230,000 miles.

Q: How large is this object?

A: 1005.6 kilometers diameter.

Q: What is the general configuration or shape of it? (A) A sphere, a ball, a disc, a cylinder?

A: Partial sphere, hexagonal.

Q: (A) Is it in a circular orbit or an elliptical orbit?

A: Circular. Rotation is altered by guidance system, gravitationally powered.

Q: What is its angle to the plane of the ecliptic?

A: 21 degrees.


Q: Okay, you said that it is "headquarters," so that answers what it does. And, it did not arrive with Hale Bopp. Just off to the side, was there REALLY a Hale Bopp companion - this rumor just won't die!?

A: No.

Q: Now, what do these Orions DO in this object? I mean, isn't it a little warm so close to the sun? I know. That's a stupid question. Space is cold.

A: Yes, and study magnetism for answers.

Q: Do Orions LIVE in this object?

A: Close.

Q: Do they use it as a transfer portal?

A: Yes.

Q: So, it is a doorway, so to speak?

A: Doorway as are many.


Q: How many of these objects are in our solar system?

A: Two.

Q: Where is the other one?

A: Outside, on the fringe of the solar system.

Q: Is the government, or some faction or department, aware of this object?

A: Yes.


Q: Anything else you can tell us about this object?

A: No need.

[Break to look at photographs.]

Q: Now, in terms of the photographs of this object, it looks sort of like two cylindrical objects with a dome or energy flow arc at the top. Could you tell us what we were seeing.

A: The object.

Q: Was it two part?

A: No.

Q: What was this arc looking part? Part of the spherical part?

A: Your visual perspective.

Q: Are the two cylindrical parts aspects of the hexagonal shape extending down from a spherical cap?

A: Close.

Even though the Cs say the government is aware of this "object" they may be clueless about the details.

Session 21 December 2012:
Q: (Perceval) Alien zombies... (L) Aliens are hyperdimensional, so they don't really... (Andromeda) Invade... (L) They've invaded! (Perceval) Through their proxies, the psychopaths. (Perceval) When they talked in 1994 about an invasion, they really were talking about the takeover or imposition of psychopathic ideas. (L) So basically 9/11 was kind of like the invasion?

A: Indeed, and even using supersecret tech.

Q: (Kniall) That's interesting because there was a session where they described what happened at the WTC as being a dome of the timelock or something. And they just mentioned "time lock" in reference to this. (Ailen) But then why do they become more visible during a time of transition?

A: Difficult to control matching frequencies when the frequencies of the multilevel environment keeps changing.

Q: (L) There was something else I wanted to ask about. (Andromeda) What about that humming sound that we all heard awhile back in the office?

A: Electrical charge.

Q: (L) How come we can't measure things like that?

A: Everything else including instruments are within the system.

Q: (Perceval) They said electrical charge... (L) Then you can't tell that a charge is different from anything... (Perceval) What we heard in the office was coming from the computer amp, but... (Mr. Scott) Well, but it's like if you measure the voltage between something and the earth, if the charge of both is increased, the voltage will be the same but the total charge on both can be much higher. But you can't tell because you're using a device that can only measure the difference between two points. (L) Belibaste, what's your question about the companion star grounding that you mentioned earlier? (Belibaste) In a previous session, it was said that the companion star coming closer induced a grounding of the sun. I simply wanted to know more precisely how this grounding occurs. For example, is there some kind of electric connection between the sun and the companion star, and if so, which kind of current transits between those two celestial bodies?

A: Indeed, but that occurs "outside" the system.

Q: (Belibaste) That's what you said, Ark. That it's a kind of wormhole...

A: Wormhole is good!

Q: (Belibaste) At the level of the sun, can we say that the reason for this grounding is the reduced positive overall charge?

A: Yes.

Q: (Belibaste) Okay, this reduced positive charge induces a reduced field that increases gravity?

A: Yes.

Q: (Belibaste) And this increase in gravity explains why there are less solar winds expelled from the sun although there is increased cometary activity?

A: Yes.

is it possible that what we are witnessing right now is just normal, that it is only because we have the instrumentation and scientific know-how to interpret the recordings; that it is a hyper sensitive media promulgating the shocking and fear/newsworthy stories, that it seems like something is up?

I really doubt that we really know "what we are witnessing right now" so even that sense of "normal" could be way off.
 

itellsya

SuperModerator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
I have a devil's advocate question (edit: actually two questions), prompted by the latest reported close encounter: ANOTHER one! Chelyabinsk-sized asteroid skims Earth, third close fly-by in 5 days -- Sott.net

Is it possible that this current period of close encounters are statistically normal and that the only reason they are newsworthy is because there are now precedents recorded on film? I'm not a mathematician, physicist or statistician, but looking at this from another viewpoint - there is a lot of empty space in space. These objects and the earth are each travelling at tremendous speeds, and thereby occupying a point of physical space for microseconds at a time. I do understand the idea of cyclic cataclysms, that objects from far away periodically come into our region of space. The +/- of these occurrences are rough though and have a lot of assumptions.

To expand further and to get to my main question - is it possible that what we are witnessing right now is just normal, that it is only because we have the instrumentation and scientific know-how to interpret the recordings; that it is a hyper sensitive media promulgating the shocking and fear/newsworthy stories, that it seems like something is up?

Hey MJ,

As to why many here have reached the conclusion that there has been an uptick in NEO/fireball activity is complex, and we've come to it not just from sightings or official measurements of fireballs to support our position. It involves a lot of research that covers numerous subjects. So i won't be able to provide you with all the information to support the view that what we're witnessing is certainly not normal, but there are a few things that come to mind.

I'm no expert, but hopefully the below may be of help.

First of all, regarding meteors/fireballs, we have the following chart taken from the American Meteor Society's website. These are events per year from 2006 to 2019. I first came across this info in a SOTT article Michigan Meteor Event: Fireball Numbers Increased Again in 2017 ,
which you also might want to check out
:

screenshot-fireball.amsmeteors.org-2019.11.05-19_26_40.jpg



So, citizens logging fireball sightings have certainly been on the increase, not scientists (maybe some) or gov agencies. So it's not down to technology, per se; it could be that more people are aware of the website and therefore more reports are logged; maybe an AMS app was released allowing easier reporting, etc... I don't have the answers to those. Certainly, while technology seems to be advancing even faster with each passing year, can we assign the increases in just over a few years to technological advances?

Added: Chart for NEOs from NASA:

20190925_nea_discovery_vs_time.png


Then if we can look at what the official institutions are up to, there seems to be a growing interest in tracking the activities in the sky - and as noted in the first article, they were reluctant to do so at first, so what changed?

It has also been officially acknowledged that we are entering the densest part of the Taurid meteor stream, which means that we're naturally going to see an uptick in activity, above normal. And the Taurids have been subject to much study as they're also strongly correlated with the cyclical catastrophes you mentioned.

There are other events happening on our planet which point to great changes that are not considered normal. These events also support theories that explain why we're seeing an increase in fireballs: we have the 'Grand' Solar minimum (they have records going back hundreds of years); the discovery of 2 rare interstellar objects in quick succession; 6 galaxies under going rapid transformation; the gulf stream is slowing down; the jet stream is changing; our atmosphere is showing signs of what could be increased cometary dust loading; Saturn has a load more 'moons', and so on. One such theory that can explain at least some of these events above is our Sun's companion Nemesis, and it could also be responsible for throwing more rocks our way.

On top of these current observations, we can look back into history to see if there have been times of increased fireball/cometary activity - as well as periods of relative quiet - to see if there is a pattern. We can check if, during those peak times, there was a similar uptick in Earth Changes.

For that, off the top of my head, i would suggest the following for investigation:


There's obviously lots more, but for one to be as sure as they can be, no one simple chart nor answer would suffice, and i guess it's up to everyone to do their due diligence and come to a conclusion for themselves.
 
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thorbiorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
One way of looking at the data of near misses is to calculate the probability of a hit. The following is an attempt to evaluate this question, using the idea that the chance of a hit somewhere on the planet could be modelled as a fraction of the space occupied by the planet Earth compared to the whole space under observation in which our planet is situated.

Taking a look at this illustration from the simulation in the first post in this thread, it looks like most objects moving around the Sun do so in the ecliptic plane, at the same time we know that impacts can hit anywhere.
1573057816159.png
The approximation made is that a hit can come from any angle and that they are evenly distributed. As a justification for trying this model, one could mention that all areas of the globe seem to have been hit. In a paper from 2016 posted on: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1511/1511.09299.pdf the authors Clemens Rumpf, Hugh G. Lewis, and Peter M. Atkinson write in their abstract and in their introduction:
The analysis shows that the distribution of impact corridors matches the common assumption of uniform impact distribution and the result extends the evidence base for the uniform assumption from qualitative analysis of historic impact events into the future in a quantitative way. [...]The key motivating question was whether the impact distribution is uniform or if some regions are more likely to be hit than others.
The question they try to answer and what I would like to evaluate is different. One issue they mention is the influence of the gravity of the Earth on the distribution of the impacts. They argue that while the area around the Equator is more exposed due to the location of ecliptica being at right angle, gravity assists to attract objects to the areas more away from the poles due to a lower angle of impact with regard to the ecliptic plane.

Another answer to the question of the angle comes from do all comets approach the sun along the plane of the ecliptic [Ask An Astronomer]
[Q]Do all comets approach the Sun along the plane of the elliptic? Are there any that approach perpendicular to the elliptic? If they do approach along the plane of the planets why don't they come from all directions given that we are surrounded by the Ort cloud? [...]
[A:]The inclination of a comet's orbit with respect to the ecliptic (approximately, the plane spanned by the orbits of the major planets) depends on the origin of the comet. Long-period comets come from the Oort's cloud; since Oort's cloud is spherical, long-period comets approach the inner solar system at random angles as you correctly guessed (note that their orbit can be majorly perturbed as they pass near the giant planets). Short-period comets originate in Kuiper's belt and orbit roughly along the plane of the ecliptic. [...]
One would expect to have more impacts coming from the ecliptic plane, but this trend may also vary, as the conditions in the solar system are not constant.

If a hit could come from any direction, and there is an equal chance in the space around the earth for an object to pass by, then it seems the chance of the object hitting the space that the Earth occupies would be progressively smaller the greater the distance from the center of the Earth we consider.

How much smaller this might be, I try to estimate considering the space of Earth as being a globe which has the volume of 4/3 multiplied by pi (3.141592...) multiplied by the cubic value the Earth radius, which is the distance from the center of the Earth to the surface of the Earth. This can then be compared to the size of the space seen as a globe that is created by the distance between the center of the Earth and out to the object passing by when it is closest.

In the illustration below the red globe is the Earth and the green globe is the space we observe, notice that this space includes the red globe. In most cases a strike on the green globe would not affect the red globe because it is comparatively small and if the green ball grows the chance is even less.
1573055390792.png
Next is a graph which along the x-axis measures the number of Earth radii, up to about 90 Earth Radii and along the y-axis the ratio between the space that the Earth occupies and the space occupied by of an imaginary celestial "globe of observation" with the radius being x.

1573038964562.png
One Earth radius is 6378 km, two Earth radii is 12756 km and so on. The volume of the space occupied by a globe with twice the radii would be 2^3 or eight times larger. Thus I estimate there would be eight times as many flyby object within 6378 km from the surface of the Earth, as there would be that actually make a strike. One could also say that if you see 8 flybys within a distance of 12756 km from the center of the Earth or 6378 km from the surface of the Earth, one of the objects is statistically likely to make a hit.

Now if we instead of two Earth radii, imagine a celestial observation globe of five Earth radii, which would count all the flybys up to about (5-1)*6378 km or about 25,500 km from the surface of the Earth, then this model expects 5^3 or 125 flybys from all directions before, on average, one has made a hit.

In the calculation there is no consideration of the resistance offered by the atmosphere, nor of gravity as an attractor. To make up for that, one could extend one Earth radius to be counted as 6500 km or roughly 4000 miles which is easier to calculate with too, and would count about 120 km into the atmosphere. 120 km is depending on speed, shape, composition and size often the altitude that incoming objects begin to glow due to friction.

If we use data from a recent flyby for illustration: ANOTHER one! Chelyabinsk-sized asteroid skims Earth, third close fly-by in 5 days -- Sott.net "A 65-foot asteroid is set to shoot past the Earth at 26,843mph in a close flyby altitude of just 107,850 miles." we have that 107,859/4000=~27 times the Earth radius. 27^3=27*27*27=19,683 This means there on average will be about 19-20 thousand misses between strikes. If we instead take the distance to the Moon, then the average distance is 238,855 miles. To find the ratio of misses to hits we first have 238,855 miles /4000 miles per each Earth radius. This gives us close to the equivalent of 59-60 Earth radii between the center of the Earth and the Moon. 59^3 is 205.379. In other words, for every strike there will be around 200,000 misses passing by within the space of a celestial globe around the Earth that extends to the average distance of the Moon.

While the above may be a consolation for some, the chances are very low assuming the estimations are realistic, the calculations gave me little occasion for celebration. Although they do report more flybys, if one compares the many bright fireballs and exploding bolides with what is being reported as flybys I am left with the conviction a good number pass by either unreported or unnoticed.
 

thorbiorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
While writing the previous post, I came across a poster with terms from Fireball FAQs
1573069283166.png
Another page had a list of reviews of books and papers Near Earth Objects - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics Below is a selection of quotes from the review:

More cosmic dust is estimated to reach the Earth
Meteor Impact Hazard
René A. De Hon, in Biological and Environmental Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, 2016
14.9 New Earth Asteroids
Collision with some of the debris in Earth-crossing orbits is inevitable. In fact, the Earth receives 90 tons of meteoritic debris each day. Most of this debris is small dust, grain-sized, and basketball-sized material that is abated and slowed in the upper atmosphere.
The above 90 tons is more than the 40 tons reported in another source two years earlier, while it may be difficult to make exact estimates, I found the upgrade

Dust in the Solar System
Harald Krüger, Eberhard Grün, in Encyclopedia of the Solar System (Third Edition), 2014
[...]
An average of 40 tons of extraterrestrial material per day falls onto the surface of Earth in the form of fine dust.

Among the Near Earth Objects, about 1 in 7 are binary and even trinary systems. It seems even quite small celestial objects prefer to travel together.
Near-Earth Objects
Lucy A. McFadden, Richard P. Binzel, in Encyclopedia of the Solar System (Second Edition), 2007
About 25 of the NEOs found since the 1990s are binary objects orbiting around a common center of mass; 15% of all NEOs are estimated to be binaries.

Near Earth Objects includes according to the Wiki Near Earth Asteroides:
A near-Earth object (NEO) is any small Solar System body whose orbit brings it to proximity with Earth. By convention, a Solar System body is a NEO if its closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) is less than 1.3 astronomical units(AU).[2] If a NEO's orbit crosses the Earth's, and the object is larger than 140 meters (460 ft) across, it is considered a potentially hazardous object (PHO).[3]Most known PHOs and NEOs are asteroids, but a small fraction are comets.[1]

There are over 20,000 known near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), over a hundred short-period near-Earth comets (NECs),[1]

Planetary Radar
Catherine D. Neish, Lynn M. Carter, in Encyclopedia of the Solar System (Third Edition), 2014

Radar imaging also provided the first undeniable evidence for NEA binary systems, and has since discovered 26 binary and two trinary systems, representing two-thirds of all known NEAs with companions (see, for example, Figure 53.25). These observations are particularly important, because they provide a constraint on the density of the asteroids, one of the few methods for determining this value.
The above relates to:
A: Just wait for the next one! That one will be a doozie! And it has "friends!"
And Definition of doozie | Dictionary.com explains:
A doozie isAlso doo·zer [doo-zer] . something that is extraordinary or outstanding of its kind: T
he storm was a doozie, with winds of fifty miles an hour.
In German there is a term "Dusche" which is a shower, I wonder if the next will hit water. The chance should be around 70 %.

The page I have been quoting from had an excerpt about past tsunamis, paleotsunamis.
Paleotsunami Research—Current Debate and Controversies
Anja M. Scheffers, in Coastal and Marine Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, 2015
3.2.1 Origin of Tsunamis from Extraterrestrial Impacts and the Chevron Debate
From the Near Earth Objects Project of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the sophisticated devices for space observation, we know that thousands of meteoroids and asteroids are moving in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, or may approach as comets from the Oort's Cloud or the Kuiper Belt. We are aware of nearly 200 impact craters on planet Earth, some of them billions of years old, though only about one dozen are land based from Holocene times. Therefore, it is highly likely that more than twice this number have collided into the oceans, and if they were large enough (≥100 m in diameter), they would cause significant tsunamis affecting near and far coastlines. This potential has been calculated and modeled in tsunami research (Kristan-Tollmann and Tollmann, 1994; Hills and Mader, 1997; Powars, 2000; Abbott et al., 2006; Tester et al., 2007; Bryant et al., 2007; Bunch et al., 2008; Bryant, 2008; Goto, 2008; Bryant et al., 2010; Goff et al., 2010). Melted quartz and other shocked minerals, iridium peaks in fine sediments, or foraminifera attached to molten minerals, have been observed in coastal deposits likely associated with these (possible) events, and as a landform, chevron deposits have been described and cautiously attributed to cosmogenic tsunami events—although this hypothesis is controversial (Scheffers et al., 2008; Bourgeois and Weiss, 2009: but compare Figures 3.6–3.10).

Interstellar meteoroids travel faster than those of local origin.
Dust in the Solar System
Harald Krüger, Eberhard Grün, in Encyclopedia of the Solar System (Third Edition), 2014

Less than 1 of 10,000 radar meteors has been identified to be caused by interstellar meteoroids that pass through the solar system on hyperbolic orbits. Their heliocentric speed is significantly higher than the solar system escape speed, confirming that they are of truly interstellar origin. The radius of these interstellar meteoroids is about 20 μm. These particles generally arrive from southern ecliptic latitudes with enhanced fluxes from discrete sources.
 
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