Near-Earth objects and close calls
- Thread starter Gawan
- Start date
The article above is a bummer, see below!
Notice the rest of the statement by the C's, not quoted above:
So the above seems to be a prediction about a "future impact". The answer came in context of discussing the Chelyabinsk impact of 2013 in russia in the atmosphere. So that probable future impact might be at least as severe/noticeable as the Chelyabinsk one, while it has "friends".
Also notice that in actuality (from the date of NASA; see here), there are 26 NEO objects scheduled to come very close to earth till November 3rd, out of which a staggering number of 23 NEO objects were discovered just withing the last month! The earliest was discovered September 3rd 2019... Out of those 23 objects, 3 objects are estimated to be between 7 m and 25 m in Diameter; 10 objects are estimated to be between 12 m and 44 m; 6 objects are estimated to be between 20 m and 63 m; 2 objects are estimated to be between 35 m and 92 m and 2 objects are estimated to be between 55 m and 140 m...
The 3 objects out of the total of 26 that are scheduled to come very close to earth till November 3rd and were not discovered within the last month, are the following:
- 162082 (1998 HL1) [discovered 18. April 1998] with an estimated diameter between 440 m - 990 m
- (2017 TG5) [discovered 14. October 2017] with an estimated diameter between 25 m - 57 m
- (2015 JD1) [discovered 11. May 2015] with an estimated diameter between 200 m - 450 m
My layman guess is that some of the smaller objects that were just discovered might travel with one of the two bigger junks listed above.
The 23 object that were discovered just within the last month and now are coming pretty close to earth, were discovered in following sequence:
1 object discovered on September 3rd
2 objects discovered on September 6
2 objects discovered between September 20 and September 22
2 objects discovered on September 24th
2 objects discovered on September 26
3 objects discovered between September 28 and September 30 (every day one new discovery)
1 object discovered on October 2nd
5 objects discovered on October 3rd
5 objects discovered on October 5th
So just within the last week, 12 out of those 23 objects were discovered that are now coming pretty close to earth! Things might be picking up...
Last edited:
And not to forget the 20 new moons of Saturn! - Saturn surpasses Jupiter after the discovery of 20 new moons
And not to forget the 20 new moons of Saturn! - Saturn surpasses Jupiter after the discovery of 20 new moons
Wow!!! And in July last year they discovered 12 new moons around Jupiter!
Another sizable fellow just discovered: 111-foot asteroid screeching towards Earth at over 22,000 miles per hour
Last edited:
They discovered this last month:
www.independent.co.uk
Alien comet visiting our solar system is like nothing we’ve seen before, scientists confirm
'We really hoped to receive this message one day. We only didn't know when'
www.independent.co.uk
Randall Carlson and colleagues discussing the recent close call of „2019 ok“ and the previous huge kilometer sized object discovered with his own moon orbiting it, in the first 17 minutes of his new „Kosmographia“ podcast. See below. Carlson roughly calculates that if „2019 ok“ would have hit, it would have produced the equivalent power of about 28,000 hiroshima bombs (or 19 Tunguska events).
In the words of Carlson:
„People would really be worrying about their ‚save spaces‘ then!“
Carlson also seems to come around the idea now that the difference between Comets and Asteroids might not be as clear cut as it is assumed. He also mentioned that things like these can come in swarms and they discuss the seeming increase of these types of flybys recently:
In the words of Carlson:
„People would really be worrying about their ‚save spaces‘ then!“
Carlson also seems to come around the idea now that the difference between Comets and Asteroids might not be as clear cut as it is assumed. He also mentioned that things like these can come in swarms and they discuss the seeming increase of these types of flybys recently:
The interactive orbit chart above shows the comet's path through the solar system and its position at the given date. Green and blue lines are shown perpendicular to the ecliptic plane: Green if the path is above the ecliptic plane, blue if it is below. (Left-click and drag to rotate the view; Right-click and drag to move the view; Use scroll wheel to zoom in our out.)
Recently discovered comets
Snip:
The below table lists comets that have been discovered in the past 6 months.
For detailed information about a comet, click on its designation.
2003 YT1
News from the meteor library: asteroid (164121) 2003 YT1
Roberto Gorelli points our attention at a recently published meteor related paper. A fireball and potentially hazardous binary near-Earth asteroid (164121) 2003 YT1 This paper has been submitted for publication to Astronomical Journal by Toshihiro Kasuga, Mikiya Sato, Masayoshi Ueda, Yasunori Fuji
www.meteornews.net
Posted by Paul Roggemans | Oct 18, 2019
This paper has been submitted for publication to Astronomical Journal by Toshihiro Kasuga, Mikiya Sato, Masayoshi Ueda, Yasunori Fujiwara, Chie Tsuchiya, and Jun-ichi Watanabe.
Abstract: We present a fireball detected in the night sky over Kyoto, Japan on UT 2017 April 28 at 15h 58m 19s by the SonotaCo Network.
The absolute visual magnitude is Mv=−4.10±0.42 mag. Luminous light curves obtain a meteoroid mass m=29±1 g, corresponding to the size as=2.7±0.1 cm. Orbital similarity assessed by D-criterions (cf. DSH=0.0079) has identified a likely parent, the binary near-Earth asteroid (164121) 2003 YT1. The suggested binary formation process is a YORP-driven rotational disintegration (Pravec & Harris 2007).
The asynchronous state indicates the age of < 104 yr, near or shorter than the upper limit to meteoroid stream lifetime. We examine potential dust production mechanisms for the asteroid, including rotational instability, resurfacing, impact, photoionization,radiation pressure sweeping, thermal fracture and sublimation of ice.
We find some of them capable of producing the meteoroid-scale particles. Rotational instability is presumed to cause mass shedding, in consideration of the recent precedents (e.g. asteroid (6478) Gault), possibly releasing mm-cm scale dust particles. Impacts by micrometeorites with size ≃ 1 mm could be a trigger for ejecting the cm-sized particles.
Radiation pressure can sweep out the mm-sized dust particles, while not sufficient for the cm-sized. For the other mechanisms, unprovable or unidentified. The feasibility in the parental aspect of 2003 YT1 is somewhat reconciled with the fireball observation, yielding an insight into how we approach potentially hazardous objects.
You can download this paper for free: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1910.06527.pdf (36 pages).
Last edited:
This one was just discovered and passed earth very close on Halloween:
www.rt.com
Joe wrote the following on Facebook about it:
Just checked it with the NASA's NEO list and it is not listed there. So it seems a whole host of really close approaches (like the one above) is not listed in NASA's NEO Asteroids/Comet section count because there only the ones that have been tracked quite some time before are being listed, not the ones that appeared "out of nowhere" and came very close or even impacted earth and/or its atmosphere in short notice.
Fright night: Asteroid passed between Earth & telecoms satellites on Halloween and almost no one noticed
An asteroid known as C0PPEV1 just came closer to us than any known Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) on NASA’s radar, passing the Earth at an altitude of just 3,852 miles. It was only spotted in the early morning hours of Thursday.
Joe wrote the following on Facebook about it:
Just checked it with the NASA's NEO list and it is not listed there. So it seems a whole host of really close approaches (like the one above) is not listed in NASA's NEO Asteroids/Comet section count because there only the ones that have been tracked quite some time before are being listed, not the ones that appeared "out of nowhere" and came very close or even impacted earth and/or its atmosphere in short notice.
M
MikaelYosef
Guest
I have a devil's advocate question (edit: actually two questions), prompted by the latest reported close encounter: ANOTHER one! Chelyabinsk-sized asteroid skims Earth, third close fly-by in 5 days -- Sott.net
Is it possible that this current period of close encounters are statistically normal and that the only reason they are newsworthy is because there are now precedents recorded on film? I'm not a mathematician, physicist or statistician, but looking at this from another viewpoint - there is a lot of empty space in space. These objects and the earth are each travelling at tremendous speeds, and thereby occupying a point of physical space for microseconds at a time. I do understand the idea of cyclic cataclysms, that objects from far away periodically come into our region of space. The +/- of these occurrences are rough though and have a lot of assumptions.
To expand further and to get to my main question - is it possible that what we are witnessing right now is just normal, that it is only because we have the instrumentation and scientific know-how to interpret the recordings; that it is a hyper sensitive media promulgating the shocking and fear/newsworthy stories, that it seems like something is up?
Is it possible that this current period of close encounters are statistically normal and that the only reason they are newsworthy is because there are now precedents recorded on film? I'm not a mathematician, physicist or statistician, but looking at this from another viewpoint - there is a lot of empty space in space. These objects and the earth are each travelling at tremendous speeds, and thereby occupying a point of physical space for microseconds at a time. I do understand the idea of cyclic cataclysms, that objects from far away periodically come into our region of space. The +/- of these occurrences are rough though and have a lot of assumptions.
To expand further and to get to my main question - is it possible that what we are witnessing right now is just normal, that it is only because we have the instrumentation and scientific know-how to interpret the recordings; that it is a hyper sensitive media promulgating the shocking and fear/newsworthy stories, that it seems like something is up?
@MikeJoseph82 ,
Yes, I think we have always had to make "assumptions" based on very poor data and our means of measurement.
Session 3 December 1994:
I would say we know very little about our "planetary realm" and lack the instruments to measure the known much less the unknown.
Session 1 March 1997:
Truth, Lies, Reality
I think there may be "objects" near earth that are not even "natural". They may not be comets, asteroids or meteors.
Session 4 December 1999:
Even though the Cs say the government is aware of this "object" they may be clueless about the details.
Session 21 December 2012:
I really doubt that we really know "what we are witnessing right now" so even that sense of "normal" could be way off.
Hey MJ,
As to why many here have reached the conclusion that there has been an uptick in NEO/fireball activity is complex, and we've come to it not just from sightings or official measurements of fireballs to support our position. It involves a lot of research that covers numerous subjects. So i won't be able to provide you with all the information to support the view that what we're witnessing is certainly not normal, but there are a few things that come to mind.
I'm no expert, but hopefully the below may be of help.
First of all, regarding meteors/fireballs, we have the following chart taken from the American Meteor Society's website. These are events per year from 2006 to 2019. I first came across this info in a SOTT article Michigan Meteor Event: Fireball Numbers Increased Again in 2017 ,
which you also might want to check out:
So, citizens logging fireball sightings have certainly been on the increase, not scientists (maybe some) or gov agencies. So it's not down to technology, per se; it could be that more people are aware of the website and therefore more reports are logged; maybe an AMS app was released allowing easier reporting, etc... I don't have the answers to those. Certainly, while technology seems to be advancing even faster with each passing year, can we assign the increases in just over a few years to technological advances?
Added: Chart for NEOs from NASA:
Then if we can look at what the official institutions are up to, there seems to be a growing interest in tracking the activities in the sky - and as noted in the first article, they were reluctant to do so at first, so what changed?
- Hunting asteroids: NASA's Planetary Defense budget grew 4000% in 10 years
- Russia's Academy of Sciences begins work on countering 'hazards' from outer space
- NASA chief: Risk of asteroid impact not being taken seriously, international cooperation needed to meet cosmic threat
It has also been officially acknowledged that we are entering the densest part of the Taurid meteor stream, which means that we're naturally going to see an uptick in activity, above normal. And the Taurids have been subject to much study as they're also strongly correlated with the cyclical catastrophes you mentioned.
There are other events happening on our planet which point to great changes that are not considered normal. These events also support theories that explain why we're seeing an increase in fireballs: we have the 'Grand' Solar minimum (they have records going back hundreds of years); the discovery of 2 rare interstellar objects in quick succession; 6 galaxies under going rapid transformation; the gulf stream is slowing down; the jet stream is changing; our atmosphere is showing signs of what could be increased cometary dust loading; Saturn has a load more 'moons', and so on. One such theory that can explain at least some of these events above is our Sun's companion Nemesis, and it could also be responsible for throwing more rocks our way.
On top of these current observations, we can look back into history to see if there have been times of increased fireball/cometary activity - as well as periods of relative quiet - to see if there is a pattern. We can check if, during those peak times, there was a similar uptick in Earth Changes.
For that, off the top of my head, i would suggest the following for investigation:
- Meteorites, Asteroids, and Comets: Damages, Disasters, Injuries, Deaths, and Very Close Calls
- Behind the Headlines: Who was Jesus? Examining the evidence that Christ may in fact have been Caesar!
- Justinian Plague and Black death: Review of evidence for comet impact in 536 AD
- Dark Ages: Did a comet impact cause global catastrophe around 500 A.D.?
- 536 AD: Plague, famine, drought, cold, and a mysterious fog that lasted 18 months
There's obviously lots more, but for one to be as sure as they can be, no one simple chart nor answer would suffice, and i guess it's up to everyone to do their due diligence and come to a conclusion for themselves.
Last edited:
One way of looking at the data of near misses is to calculate the probability of a hit. The following is an attempt to evaluate this question, using the idea that the chance of a hit somewhere on the planet could be modelled as a fraction of the space occupied by the planet Earth compared to the whole space under observation in which our planet is situated.
Taking a look at this illustration from the simulation in the first post in this thread, it looks like most objects moving around the Sun do so in the ecliptic plane, at the same time we know that impacts can hit anywhere.
The approximation made is that a hit can come from any angle and that they are evenly distributed. As a justification for trying this model, one could mention that all areas of the globe seem to have been hit. In a paper from 2016 posted on: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1511/1511.09299.pdf the authors Clemens Rumpf, Hugh G. Lewis, and Peter M. Atkinson write in their abstract and in their introduction:
Another answer to the question of the angle comes from do all comets approach the sun along the plane of the ecliptic [Ask An Astronomer]
If a hit could come from any direction, and there is an equal chance in the space around the earth for an object to pass by, then it seems the chance of the object hitting the space that the Earth occupies would be progressively smaller the greater the distance from the center of the Earth we consider.
How much smaller this might be, I try to estimate considering the space of Earth as being a globe which has the volume of 4/3 multiplied by pi (3.141592...) multiplied by the cubic value the Earth radius, which is the distance from the center of the Earth to the surface of the Earth. This can then be compared to the size of the space seen as a globe that is created by the distance between the center of the Earth and out to the object passing by when it is closest.
In the illustration below the red globe is the Earth and the green globe is the space we observe, notice that this space includes the red globe. In most cases a strike on the green globe would not affect the red globe because it is comparatively small and if the green ball grows the chance is even less.
Next is a graph which along the x-axis measures the number of Earth radii, up to about 90 Earth Radii and along the y-axis the ratio between the space that the Earth occupies and the space occupied by of an imaginary celestial "globe of observation" with the radius being x.
One Earth radius is 6378 km, two Earth radii is 12756 km and so on. The volume of the space occupied by a globe with twice the radii would be 2^3 or eight times larger. Thus I estimate there would be eight times as many flyby object within 6378 km from the surface of the Earth, as there would be that actually make a strike. One could also say that if you see 8 flybys within a distance of 12756 km from the center of the Earth or 6378 km from the surface of the Earth, one of the objects is statistically likely to make a hit.
Now if we instead of two Earth radii, imagine a celestial observation globe of five Earth radii, which would count all the flybys up to about (5-1)*6378 km or about 25,500 km from the surface of the Earth, then this model expects 5^3 or 125 flybys from all directions before, on average, one has made a hit.
In the calculation there is no consideration of the resistance offered by the atmosphere, nor of gravity as an attractor. To make up for that, one could extend one Earth radius to be counted as 6500 km or roughly 4000 miles which is easier to calculate with too, and would count about 120 km into the atmosphere. 120 km is depending on speed, shape, composition and size often the altitude that incoming objects begin to glow due to friction.
If we use data from a recent flyby for illustration: ANOTHER one! Chelyabinsk-sized asteroid skims Earth, third close fly-by in 5 days -- Sott.net "A 65-foot asteroid is set to shoot past the Earth at 26,843mph in a close flyby altitude of just 107,850 miles." we have that 107,859/4000=~27 times the Earth radius. 27^3=27*27*27=19,683 This means there on average will be about 19-20 thousand misses between strikes. If we instead take the distance to the Moon, then the average distance is 238,855 miles. To find the ratio of misses to hits we first have 238,855 miles /4000 miles per each Earth radius. This gives us close to the equivalent of 59-60 Earth radii between the center of the Earth and the Moon. 59^3 is 205.379. In other words, for every strike there will be around 200,000 misses passing by within the space of a celestial globe around the Earth that extends to the average distance of the Moon.
While the above may be a consolation for some, the chances are very low assuming the estimations are realistic, the calculations gave me little occasion for celebration. Although they do report more flybys, if one compares the many bright fireballs and exploding bolides with what is being reported as flybys I am left with the conviction a good number pass by either unreported or unnoticed.
Taking a look at this illustration from the simulation in the first post in this thread, it looks like most objects moving around the Sun do so in the ecliptic plane, at the same time we know that impacts can hit anywhere.
The approximation made is that a hit can come from any angle and that they are evenly distributed. As a justification for trying this model, one could mention that all areas of the globe seem to have been hit. In a paper from 2016 posted on: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1511/1511.09299.pdf the authors Clemens Rumpf, Hugh G. Lewis, and Peter M. Atkinson write in their abstract and in their introduction:
The question they try to answer and what I would like to evaluate is different. One issue they mention is the influence of the gravity of the Earth on the distribution of the impacts. They argue that while the area around the Equator is more exposed due to the location of ecliptica being at right angle, gravity assists to attract objects to the areas more away from the poles due to a lower angle of impact with regard to the ecliptic plane.
Another answer to the question of the angle comes from do all comets approach the sun along the plane of the ecliptic [Ask An Astronomer]
One would expect to have more impacts coming from the ecliptic plane, but this trend may also vary, as the conditions in the solar system are not constant.
If a hit could come from any direction, and there is an equal chance in the space around the earth for an object to pass by, then it seems the chance of the object hitting the space that the Earth occupies would be progressively smaller the greater the distance from the center of the Earth we consider.
How much smaller this might be, I try to estimate considering the space of Earth as being a globe which has the volume of 4/3 multiplied by pi (3.141592...) multiplied by the cubic value the Earth radius, which is the distance from the center of the Earth to the surface of the Earth. This can then be compared to the size of the space seen as a globe that is created by the distance between the center of the Earth and out to the object passing by when it is closest.
In the illustration below the red globe is the Earth and the green globe is the space we observe, notice that this space includes the red globe. In most cases a strike on the green globe would not affect the red globe because it is comparatively small and if the green ball grows the chance is even less.
Next is a graph which along the x-axis measures the number of Earth radii, up to about 90 Earth Radii and along the y-axis the ratio between the space that the Earth occupies and the space occupied by of an imaginary celestial "globe of observation" with the radius being x.
One Earth radius is 6378 km, two Earth radii is 12756 km and so on. The volume of the space occupied by a globe with twice the radii would be 2^3 or eight times larger. Thus I estimate there would be eight times as many flyby object within 6378 km from the surface of the Earth, as there would be that actually make a strike. One could also say that if you see 8 flybys within a distance of 12756 km from the center of the Earth or 6378 km from the surface of the Earth, one of the objects is statistically likely to make a hit.
Now if we instead of two Earth radii, imagine a celestial observation globe of five Earth radii, which would count all the flybys up to about (5-1)*6378 km or about 25,500 km from the surface of the Earth, then this model expects 5^3 or 125 flybys from all directions before, on average, one has made a hit.
In the calculation there is no consideration of the resistance offered by the atmosphere, nor of gravity as an attractor. To make up for that, one could extend one Earth radius to be counted as 6500 km or roughly 4000 miles which is easier to calculate with too, and would count about 120 km into the atmosphere. 120 km is depending on speed, shape, composition and size often the altitude that incoming objects begin to glow due to friction.
If we use data from a recent flyby for illustration: ANOTHER one! Chelyabinsk-sized asteroid skims Earth, third close fly-by in 5 days -- Sott.net "A 65-foot asteroid is set to shoot past the Earth at 26,843mph in a close flyby altitude of just 107,850 miles." we have that 107,859/4000=~27 times the Earth radius. 27^3=27*27*27=19,683 This means there on average will be about 19-20 thousand misses between strikes. If we instead take the distance to the Moon, then the average distance is 238,855 miles. To find the ratio of misses to hits we first have 238,855 miles /4000 miles per each Earth radius. This gives us close to the equivalent of 59-60 Earth radii between the center of the Earth and the Moon. 59^3 is 205.379. In other words, for every strike there will be around 200,000 misses passing by within the space of a celestial globe around the Earth that extends to the average distance of the Moon.
While the above may be a consolation for some, the chances are very low assuming the estimations are realistic, the calculations gave me little occasion for celebration. Although they do report more flybys, if one compares the many bright fireballs and exploding bolides with what is being reported as flybys I am left with the conviction a good number pass by either unreported or unnoticed.
While writing the previous post, I came across a poster with terms from Fireball FAQs
Another page had a list of reviews of books and papers Near Earth Objects - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics Below is a selection of quotes from the review:
More cosmic dust is estimated to reach the Earth
Among the Near Earth Objects, about 1 in 7 are binary and even trinary systems. It seems even quite small celestial objects prefer to travel together.
Near Earth Objects includes according to the Wiki Near Earth Asteroides:
The page I have been quoting from had an excerpt about past tsunamis, paleotsunamis.
Interstellar meteoroids travel faster than those of local origin.
Another page had a list of reviews of books and papers Near Earth Objects - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics Below is a selection of quotes from the review:
More cosmic dust is estimated to reach the Earth
The above 90 tons is more than the 40 tons reported in another source two years earlier, while it may be difficult to make exact estimates, I found the upgrade
Among the Near Earth Objects, about 1 in 7 are binary and even trinary systems. It seems even quite small celestial objects prefer to travel together.
Near Earth Objects includes according to the Wiki Near Earth Asteroides:
The above relates to:
And Definition of doozie | Dictionary.com explains:A: Just wait for the next one! That one will be a doozie! And it has "friends!"
Session 23 March 2013
Session Date: March 23rd 2013 Laura, Ark, Belibaste, Perceval, Andromeda, PoB, Ailen, Data, Kniall, Mr. Scott Q: (L) Today is March 23, 2013. Stormy day! A: Just you wait! Real storms a'comin! Q: (L) Do you mean here specifically? A: And elsewhere. Q: (L) That sounds ominous. (S) As in...cassiopaea.org
In German there is a term "Dusche" which is a shower, I wonder if the next will hit water. The chance should be around 70 %.
The page I have been quoting from had an excerpt about past tsunamis, paleotsunamis.
Interstellar meteoroids travel faster than those of local origin.
