Thoughts on the accuracy of the data we are told about the dangers from coming large NEO flybys
It is kind of a mystery to me at this point and somewhat odd. I've two possible candidates for now; "2009 JF1" or "2019 JF1". The odd thing though is that "2009 JF1", which seems to be the one they refer to, is listed at NASA as a max of 23 Meters in diameter (as opposed to around 130 as stated in the articles). Further, 2009JF1 is not listed at the same NASA page as coming close to earth at the stated date in the article, while on ESA's NEO risk page (which I discovered today!) it is listed as a substantial risk for earth at the stated date in the article (while also being a lot smaller than stated in the article). "2009 JF1" is not listed in my table above as coming close to earth at said time, while "2019 JF1" isn't listed there at all. Notice also that ESA currently lists 990 objects in their risk list for earth compared to the around 600 or so NEA's listed in my table above that came and will come closer to earth than the moon. Something doesn't quite add up here. How close will "2009 JF1" actually come in 2022? I couldn't find that data point anywhere as of now, including in all those articles. If it is "2009 JF1" they talk about, how can it be so dangerous to earth when it is not listed anywhere to come close to earth in any shape or fashion? Meaning nowhere close to 1 LD.
Thank you for bringing up the inconsistency. It is hard to say what is going on in the case you mention. It could be a mistake, but it is very easy for an interested party to sell a plausible story to the public. Besides some may want to leak something that is going in the right direction without spilling all the beans, if that is not allowed due to current policy. From the "War on Terror", regime changes and "anti" campaigns around the world, accusations of chemical warfare, the Anthropogenic Global Warming scam and scandals around Ukraine, to mentions some, we know that if a question is made a political or economic issue, then often the accuracy of data that is left for the public dissipates even more and the lines between fact and fiction become blurred. Could that be what is happening?Yes, it's not quite clear where the articles get their information from. I went to the risk page you found, and set Table Settings to "All available data" and downloaded the Excel file (containing information about 22730 NEOs/objects). I found several JF1 NEOs. One that passed the Earth in 1955, one in 1982, one in 2019 (Sept 16th), and one that is said to make a close approach on July 3rd, 2029, and lastly one on Sept 29th, 2046. The maximum diameter of some of these JF1s is 100. I only found one 2009 JF1 and according to their data, it made a close approach in 2009. I couldn't find a JF1 one that fits the description of the article. Perhaps it hasn't been registered yet, or estimations change(d) (?). Hope this helps.