Potential Food and Energy Shortage Across the World

[thorbiorn]

From where RT is still available:

Russian wheat exports plunge
Supplies to the global market are down by nearly a third since July

© Getty Images
The world's largest exporter of wheat, Russia, supplied 23 million tons of the crop to the global market since the beginning of the 2021-2022 agricultural year (July 1, 2021) to March 10, the Ministry of Agriculture said on Monday. That is 30.9% lower than the figure for the same date last season.
The country’s overall grain exports are also down, with barley deliveries falling by 34.7% to 2.9 million tons, and corn shipments declining by 21.7% to 1.8 million tons.
Wheat prices hit record highs lately on supply shortage concerns due to the crisis in Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine account for about 30% of global wheat exports.
The conflict between the two countries has brought the world to the brink of a food crisis, analysts warn. The number of people on the edge of famine has jumped to 44 million from 27 million in 2019, the UN's World Food Program said this month.
For more stories on economy & finance visit RT's business section

This critical food item is about to run out in Europe
The halt of exports from Ukraine could change region’s frying habits

© Getty Images / Igor Kovalenko
Europe now faces a deficit in sunflower oil because exports from Ukraine have stopped, with the available stocks projected to last between 4 and 6 weeks, the EU vegetable oil industry association has warned.
“Beyond that period, it is likely that [the] lack of availability of crude sunflower seed oil and limited alternatives will lead to a shortfall of refined/bottled sunflower seed oil on the European market, and that this will be felt up to the consumer level,” reads the latest FEDIOL press release.
According to the association, the conflict in Ukraine has already prevented approximately 200,000 tons of sunflower seed oil per month from being shipped to European ports.
The EU sources between 35% and 45% of the oil it consumes from Ukraine, FEDIOL explains, adding that such volumes are difficult if not impossible to replace on short notice.
READ MORE: Wheat futures soar to 14-year high and food prices could be next
Producers are already redirecting the oil destined for biodiesel back to the food market, FEDIOL says, predicting that rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and tropical oils could also be used as a replacement.
Since the beginning of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine on February 24, the country’s Black Sea ports have been closed, leaving dozens of cargo ships stranded and disrupting shipping.
For more stories on economy & finance visit RT's business section

Who will people blame eventually?

 

[Sol Logos]

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[Eboard10]

The Italian government recently announced it is preparing a decree to address the shortage in certain raw materials such as iron, copper, clay, nickel and agricultural products due to the Ukraine conflict. They aim to impose a ban on the export of raw materials if they become scarce in the domestic market and plan on having businesses notify the government on any foreign transaction for which they will receive a reply on whether or not the transaction is approved. They also plan on reducing the cost of petrol by 15 cents in the short term and implement either price controls on future energy price hikes or tax extra profits made by energy companies.

This proposal, if passed, may help the country face shortages in the short term but is definitely no long term solution for the economy. For example, Northern Italy is one of the most industrialised areas of Europe and it largely lives off foreign demand. If they cap the amount of products and materials they can ship abroad this will have a not inconsequential impact on their finances and hence on overall employment in those sectors.

Price controls may also push suppliers away from the country and create further shortages in energy and other products concerned. Moreover, if other countries start implementing these same measures, the risks of a break down in the international supply chain becomes more likely and would impact mostly those countries lacking the raw materials.

 

[Gwenllian]

If concerned about food shortages,
don’t dismay, meat made from air to the rescue:

That reminds me of the latest Objective Health Show:

As we've seen circulating in the corporate press as of late, the idea that there won't be food shortages in the near future seems highly unlikely. Whether they blame it on Russia, truckers, the Coronavirus or any other bad guy de rigueur, (but never squarely on the shoulders of the governments, where it most seems to fit), it seems highly likely that the #bareshelvesbiden trend is only going to get more widespread, and more intense.

On this episode of Objective:Health, we talk about how food shortages are being used to usher in the new Great Reset paradigm of ultra-processed plant-based foods, insect-based, lab-grown protein food substitutes. You'll eat the bugs, because that's all that's offered.

But is there a defense against this? We also talk about necessary measures for preparedness on this show. If we're prepared for the worst, we won't be subject to the whims of the "you'll own nothing and be happy" crowd.

 

[Gwenllian]

Is this a side-reason for Russia's interest in Ukraine? I.e., was the decision this year to do something amplified by a predicted access to food? Because, people need food to survive. But to draw direct attention to the fact that climate changes directly effect food production in both the short and long terms, could result in a desperate 'run' by countries on every other country. They're just getting in there first to maintain and guarantee the production lines.

I wouldn't think so. Certainly, as far as I understand it, the Russians wish to protect Ukraine's agriculture, but that doesn't mean that they are eyeing Ukraine's riches. They didn't do that in Syria, did they? They just wanted to get rid of the threat posed by these insane jihadis (to Russia). The same goes for the neo-Nazis in Ukraine. Don't forget that by their fruits you shall know them and it's clear that the Russians are more interested in trade, mutual trust and co-operation.

If you have a look at the articles on Sott you will see that the Russians expect they will be entirely self-sufficient when it comes to food products in a few years time (this article was from 2015):

Thanks to sanctions Russia will be self-sufficient within a decade - Agricultural Minister

In a counter attack against EU sanctions, the Russian government has announced that within the decade Russia will be entirely self-sufficient when it comes to food products. Agriculture Minister, Alexander Tkachyov stated on Tuesday that Russia...

www.sott.net

And although it is difficult to tell whether Russia will suffer from earth changes in regards to their crops they have been steadily working on their self-sufficiency.

Putin pushes to increase domestic food production quickly

Russian President Vladimir Putin has tasked the new Agriculture Minister Aleksandr Tkachyov with strengthening the sector and solving import substitution goal quickly. Western food imports have been banned following the US and EU anti-Russia...

www.sott.net

BTW, this is an interesting and prescient SOTT comment:

More than just easing pressure on the food market and decreasing prices, this push by Putin to increase domestic food production could be seen as a strategic move to increase Russia's self-reliance in preparation for when the global economy tanks and those dependent on foreign food imports will starve. This kind of forward thinking could just save Russia from experiencing a total collapse after the US dollar implodes, and takes most of the developed world with it.

Also see:

Russia's energy-driven economy shifting as agriculture sector booms

Russia's agriculture exports have surged by almost a third in the first five months of the year. Food is Russia's second biggest export after oil and gas, helping to diversify the economy away from energy. The country exported 29.5 percent more...

www.sott.net

Separating the wheat from the chaff: As EU embraces GMO frankenfoods, Russia set to become leading organic food producer

Last week, an EU court ruled Italy cannot ban the cultivation of an EU-approved genetically modified crop, thus publicly supporting GMO. At the same time, Russia has been ramping up production and export of organic food. "Recently the organic...

www.sott.net

FWIW.

 

[Chad]

The Italian government recently announced [...] plan on reducing the cost of petrol by 15 cents in the short term and implement either price controls on future energy price hikes or tax extra profits made by energy companies. [...]

In the last couple of days in France workers from the fishing industry began blocking fuel depots and roads in protest over the soaring price of fuel, and yesterday footage appeared online of farmers joining the protest.

So far, in response to the protest the government have promised a measly 6 million euros to help with the rising costs (which i can't imagine will last very long) as well as a similar rebate of 15cents ($0.16) on fuel costs.

Note, they're blaming it on Russia's incursion, but it was the rising cost of fuel that sparked the 2 year long Yellow Vest protests back in 2018.

Article and video:

French fishing industry & farmers block fuel depots & roads in protest over soaring energy prices, gov't releases just €6 million in aid -- Sott.net

Fishermen are blocking fuel depots in northwestern France in protest at surging energy prices, local authorities said on Wednesday, as the issue of inflation and rising living costs looks set to become a key topic in France's upcoming elections....

www.sott.net

​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504201652588400644

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1504436682061459465

 

[Sol Logos]

That reminds me of the latest Objective Health Show:

yeah that was a great show! I heard about eating bugs etc. never imagined eating air would be thing ;)

 

[jess]

Here in southwest Ohio, USA, north of the city of Cincinnati, we have the headquarters of a large supermarket chain, Kroger, in fact my husband works there in the IT area of the company, and from what he tells me they do not have at the moment the problem of shortage of products (the question would be for how long?), and in fact the company has had a good amount of profits lately and / or during the pandemic, the last thing I knew the sanctions against Russia by the USA if it affected some of the connections that the company had.

What I have seen lately in the local area where I live, is that you can still see all over the store, small ads on some products that say they are out of stock.
Personally I have been hoarding all kinds of food, cans and jars of canned food still sit on the shelves.
What worries me the most, at least in the area where I live, What worries me is the "panic buying" and a lot of people have the spirit of prep shoppers as a culture, because of the weather conditions that local people are used to, snowstorms or sometimes tornadoes, I have even seen some of my neighbors, at least in the garage area, large accumulations of water bottles and toilet paper. Months ago I worked as a cashier in a supermarket and if you see families spending huge amounts of money for groceries between 300-400 dollars in a single transaction, basically there are no limits yet for the supermarket towards the customer.
What I would find worrying is that when people start to realize the problem more closely, a few smarter people will surely empty the stores and leave the majority without products or food.

 

[Sol Logos]

yeah that was a great show! I heard about eating bugs etc. never imagined eating air would be thing ;)

There’s also another one here: This startup uses an ancient microbe to turn CO2 into ingredients for food just got 7 million from investors. I’d take a guess these investors likely bankrolled by Blackrock and Vanguard want to cash in on the upcoming manufactured food scarcity they’re also actively pursuing. People behind those that invest in such investors I mean.

 

[unkl brws]

A possible strike by Canadian Pacific Railway this Sunday (March 20th) due to a labour dispute could potentially delay essential shipments of fertilizer to farms as we are about 4 weeks away from spring seeding and planting of crops here in Canada:

Farm groups have warned any delay on the rail lines would affect everything from shipments of fertilizer and other inputs during the crucial spring seeding season, as well as deliveries of emergency livestock feed to drought-affected parts of the Prairies.

Union issues strike notice to CP Rail as groups ask Ottawa to prevent work stoppage

Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. said Thursday it has received strike notice from the union representing its engineers, conductors and other train employees.

www.ctvnews.ca

This is a press release below from Fertilizer Canada -
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

CP Railway Work Stoppage Will Have Devastating Impacts for Canadian Fertilizer Supply Chain During Crucial Seeding Season​

OTTAWA, ON, March 17, 2022 — Fertilizer Canada is calling on Canadian Pacific Railway (CP Rail) and Teamster’s Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) to commit to binding arbitration to mitigate impacts on the fertilizer supply chain from a rail work stoppage. A disruption to rail service will once again cripple Canada’s fragile supply chain and have devastating effects in the broader North American economy.

CP Rail has issued a 72-hour notice that they will lock-out more than 3,000 TCRC union members who work as engineers, conductors, trainpersons, and yardpersons. TCRC has also issued a 72-hour notice of a strike. This will be particularly devastating for the agricultural sector, as spring is a crucial season for seeding and farmers are counting on timely supply of fertilizer to maximize their crop yields.

We are asking the federal government to do everything in their power to encourage both parties to enter into binding arbitration, and if necessary, be prepared to enact legislation to swiftly put an end to the work stoppage.

A work stoppage compromises Canada’s position as a leading global fertilizer supplier and could result in fertilizer production facilities being forced to shut-in production, impacting Canadian workers, the economy, and food security. Our members, which include manufacturers of essential nitrogen and potash fertilizers, are already beginning to feel the impacts as preparation for a work stoppage begins.

“Fertilizer is the most important input for crops and is responsible for half of the world’s current food production,” says Karen Proud, President and CEO of Fertilizer Canada. “While we respect the collective bargaining process, Canada cannot afford another disruption to our supply chain. With 75 per cent of all fertilizer in Canada moved by rail, our members are critically dependent on rail service to move products across the country and into international markets.”

There is no other alternative transportation method that currently has capacity or can be brought online in time to mitigate the impact of the work stoppage.

Food security, domestically and internationally, relies on the Canadian fertilizer industry. The agricultural sector is already experiencing supply challenges compounded by the war in Ukraine and cannot withstand anymore disruption. The 2021 growing season saw lower crop yields due to weather conditions. Food security in Canada and internationally depends on maximizing crops this season and fertilizer is critical to this.

 

[Pat]

A possible strike by Canadian Pacific Railway this Sunday (March 20th) due to a labour dispute could potentially delay essential shipments of fertilizer to farms as we are about 4 weeks away from spring seeding and planting of crops here in Canada:

Union issues strike notice to CP Rail as groups ask Ottawa to prevent work stoppage

Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. said Thursday it has received strike notice from the union representing its engineers, conductors and other train employees.

www.ctvnews.ca

This is a press release below from Fertilizer Canada -
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

CP Railway Work Stoppage Will Have Devastating Impacts for Canadian Fertilizer Supply Chain During Crucial Seeding Season​

OTTAWA, ON, March 17, 2022 — Fertilizer Canada is calling on Canadian Pacific Railway (CP Rail) and Teamster’s Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) to commit to binding arbitration to mitigate impacts on the fertilizer supply chain from a rail work stoppage. A disruption to rail service will once again cripple Canada’s fragile supply chain and have devastating effects in the broader North American economy.

CP Rail has issued a 72-hour notice that they will lock-out more than 3,000 TCRC union members who work as engineers, conductors, trainpersons, and yardpersons. TCRC has also issued a 72-hour notice of a strike. This will be particularly devastating for the agricultural sector, as spring is a crucial season for seeding and farmers are counting on timely supply of fertilizer to maximize their crop yields.

We are asking the federal government to do everything in their power to encourage both parties to enter into binding arbitration, and if necessary, be prepared to enact legislation to swiftly put an end to the work stoppage.

A work stoppage compromises Canada’s position as a leading global fertilizer supplier and could result in fertilizer production facilities being forced to shut-in production, impacting Canadian workers, the economy, and food security. Our members, which include manufacturers of essential nitrogen and potash fertilizers, are already beginning to feel the impacts as preparation for a work stoppage begins.

“Fertilizer is the most important input for crops and is responsible for half of the world’s current food production,” says Karen Proud, President and CEO of Fertilizer Canada. “While we respect the collective bargaining process, Canada cannot afford another disruption to our supply chain. With 75 per cent of all fertilizer in Canada moved by rail, our members are critically dependent on rail service to move products across the country and into international markets.”

There is no other alternative transportation method that currently has capacity or can be brought online in time to mitigate the impact of the work stoppage.

Food security, domestically and internationally, relies on the Canadian fertilizer industry. The agricultural sector is already experiencing supply challenges compounded by the war in Ukraine and cannot withstand anymore disruption. The 2021 growing season saw lower crop yields due to weather conditions. Food security in Canada and internationally depends on maximizing crops this season and fertilizer is critical to this.

Let see how this turns out, knowing that chaos is the end game...

 

[Mayb]

In Serbia, flour disappeared from the shelves first. If someone drops a bomb on us, for three days, nothing will be seen from the flour.

 

[Mayb]

In Serbia, flour disappeared from the shelves first. If someone drops a bomb on us, for three days, nothing will be seen from the flour.

I wanted to say that Serbs run to shops to buy the flour first.. There was enough of it but somehow on first sign of crisis we stock the flour in enormous ammounts.

 

[pinkfreud]

Here in West Michigan, I saw this on the local news last night.

https://www.woodtv.com/video/potash-mine-could-ease-fertilizer-shortage/7530690/

It struck me as a red flag for a couple of reasons:

1. These are things that go unmentioned unless our attention is meant to be directed at them, as in, if “they” are talking about it, then we are supposed to believe they have it under control. Also, it gives me the feeling that we are at such a stage that the food situation cannot possibly be hidden much longer. Of course, I tend to anticipate the worst when it comes to the state of the world.

2. After lots of positive talk about how the area has this huge and untapped resource, and how we can help not only the state but the rest of the country, and a farmer insisting that we are better off using resources we have here at home, they ended the segment by saying operations could start in about 30 months.
a.) 30 months ago, covid didn’t exist. So we are expecting the fertilizer shortage to last at least that long.
b.) As is often seen in articles, the part of the story that should actually be the headline is in the last paragraph. I noticed my mother was very interested when the segment started, but had already been comforted enough to lose interest entirely by the time they reported the timeline.
While I am posting on the topic, I wanted to share this resource I’ve found and used often the past couple of years. It is homestead based and provides info and how-tos on all topics “self-sufficency,”
I found it while researching how to wash clothes without an electric washing machine (because I have all the skills and education of a modern American )

MorningChores - Build Your Self-Sufficient Life

Learn how to become self-sufficient by gardening vegetables, fruits, herbs and raising animals for food, saving money, and making your own stuff.

morningchores.com

 

[pinkfreud]

Apologies for double posting, but I wanted to add that our local grocery store (which is usually one of the best around in terms of selection and freshness) hasn’t had sunflower seeds for at least two weeks. I usually only buy them as treats for our chickens, so I decided to adapt with another flock favorite, organic canned corn.
In our area, organic canned corn has been a solid $1.25 for at least a decade. It didn’t even budge during covid.
This last weekend, it was suddenly $1.59. Maybe it was due to the can, or the freight, or the corn itself, or all of those things. At any rate, it was a very abrupt 27% increase.
I think forward with these things, so I decided to get enough to restock the cupboard. I grabbed the 8 cans up front, which were stacked 2 high, and there was nothing behind them.