Predictions and Prophecies

[sid]

I think just because of the above being in the news albeit even if coverage is thin, is enough to suggest that Iran will not be attacked tonight!

 

[stellar]

As we know, on January 26, 2026, Neptune will enter Aries and remain there until around 2038-2039

In the real sky Saturn goes into Aries early June 2027. So, between now and then it will be bubble bursting big time, IMO.

 

[Puma]

I think just because of the above being in the news albeit even if coverage is thin, is enough to suggest that Iran will not be attacked tonight!

There was speculation that the bet generated enough attention to change the decision or the future. Can the future be changed by making people aware?

Grok, for example, says: "Yes, it is possible to alter the future by raising awareness or alerting people, but it depends greatly on the context, the time frame, and the type of event."

For Grok, the bet only caused noise and even entertainment since it lacked time (the AI mentions weeks or months for the idea to become a social avalanche). However, cases in which a prediction can change the future include these actions:
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● Effect of scrutiny and public pressure: When something goes viral (like that post with hundreds of thousands of views), it creates a "lens" of global attention. Tens of thousands of people, analysts, journalists, and even officials are now watching to see whether or not an attack will occur tonight. If there were a secret operational plan for a surprise strike, public exposure greatly increases the political cost: it would be seen as "confirmation" of theories of insider trading or manipulation. That could lead to postponement or cancellation to avoid a media scandal.

● Signaling and deterrence: Iran, US allies, or even internal actors (Congress, American public opinion) could react differently. The collective alert could force greater caution, last-minute diplomatic calls, or additional leaks that complicate the operation.

In the last session, for example, the Cs said that the call from the "Informant" stopped the attack on Iran at the last minute.
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Q: (Joe) What was the reason the US called off its attack on Iran last week, at the last minute?

A: Call from informant.

Q: (L) When you say informant, that means you're not willing to tell us who called?

A: Yes

Q: (Joe) It means people on the ground who were organizing protests, probably, had decided that it wasn't a good time. Because they had all these protests and they were planning to do their bombing campaign, but then the protests didn't work out very well, it seems.

(L) Yeah, from what I heard, they were able to block Starlink.

(Joe) Was that a factor?

A: Yes

● Dynamics in prediction markets: The ~$100k bet attracted attention and probably adjusted the odds (which were already very low, around 2-3%). When a low-probability event becomes a trending topic, it can create a "self-fulfilling prophecy effect": people speculate so much that decision-makers prefer not to validate the scenario.

● Social butterfly effect: In complex systems (geopolitics, markets, public opinion), small inputs of information can be amplified. A post that alerts millions can change narratives, move oil stocks, influence diplomatic networks, or even indirectly reach decision-makers.

There was no attack, but there were mutual threats, warnings to ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2020899509103108319

https://twitter.com/x/status/2021064543108223038