MOSCOW, December 27. /TASS/. The UN may undergo significant structural changes in 2023, Russia and the CIS pledge to solve issues and discuss the economy, and North Korean drones entered South Korean airspace for the first time since 2017. These stories dominated the headlines of Russian newspapers on Tuesday.
The Zelensky regime plans to push for annulling Russia’s UN Security Council permanent membership, according to Dmitry Kuleba, Ukraine's Foreign Minister. His statement could be construed as an exercise in rhetoric intended for use in military propaganda, if it did not echo what top officials of the European Union and the United States had previously said. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Moscow may struggle to maintain its present UN capacity in 2023. This conflict may also result in fundamental changes throughout the organization.
Some Western countries have been talking about the need to "punish" Russia in some way through the UN virtually since the onset of Russia's military operation in Ukraine, but none of these plans have yet been put into action. "There is no legal procedure for excluding one of the UN founding countries from the United Nations. The same is true of Russia's removal from the position of permanent representative to the United Nations Security Council. Russia cannot be deprived of its membership since it is unclear how this can be done. Revisions would be needed to the UN Charter, which is unachievable without Russia's approval," Associate Professor of the Department of Integration Processes at MGIMO Alexander Tevdoy-Burmuli told the newspaper.
Nonetheless, in recent months, both in the EU and the US, there has been increasing debate about reforming the UN next year to diminish Russia's authority in the global body. A conflict may erupt next year to widen the number of permanent members of the UN Security Council. Russia, in general, supports this concept. While Moscow backs the admission of Brazil and India as permanent members to the Security Council, it opposes the expansion of the five to include Germany and Japan, who are supported by the US.
Meanwhile, Russia and the US are not the only countries with different perspectives on UN reform. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has consistently advocated for the inclusion of a Muslim world representation on the Security Council.
Despite the fact that problems between CIS members do arise from time to time, the countries are willing to settle them, Russian President Vladimir Putin said opening the St. Petersburg-hosted informal Commonwealth gathering.
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He also mentioned the expansion of economic cooperation. Russia's trade with Commonwealth countries might reach $100 bln by the end of 2022.
The open part of the meeting only lasted for about 10 minutes. In spite of the CIS countries' growing collaboration, Putin acknowledged that disagreements sometimes emerge. "The key thing, however, is that we are ready and willing to cooperate. Even if any problematic issues develop, we strive to resolve them ourselves, together, providing comradely support and mediation actions," the Russian leader stated.
However, it is possible that behind closed doors, the leaders may debate the most contentious issues that the post-Soviet zone is struggling with. In particular, settling the Karabakh conflict or normalizing ties between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Izvestia writes.
Meanwhile, according to Putin, this sort of dialogue in a friendly circle demonstrates the members’ desire for further cooperation. When summing up the Commonwealth's endeavors, he pointed out that Russia's trade with CIS members might exceed $100 bln by the end of 2022. He also noted that deepening cooperation here serves the fundamental interests of CIS states and enhances security.
First Deputy Chair of the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy Ivan Abramov told Izvestia that trade within the CIS would continue to increase next year and Western sanctions play some part in this.
According to the South Korean Ministry of Defense, five small North Korean drones entered South Korean airspace on December 26, one of which flew right up to the country's capital of Seoul. The South Korean military fired about 100 rounds from small-caliber anti-aircraft weapons in an attempt to shoot down the UAVs. The incident could be a dangerous step leading to an escalation on the peninsula, Vedomosti writes.
The South Korean military also dispatched fighters, combat helicopters, and other aircraft to intercept the UAVs. One of them, a KA-1 light turboprop combat training aircraft, crashed during takeoff for unknown reasons.
According to Professor Andrey Lankov from Kookmin University in Seoul, the North Korean drones routinely flew over Seoul up to and even during 2017, but then this stopped due to some warming of relations between the two countries. It is yet unclear whether the loss of the South Korean KA-1 aircraft is related to the drones.
This incident should be viewed within the context of rising tensions in each of the parties' respective regions, Lankov said. According to the expert, the two countries are now determined to demonstrate the utmost toughness, and as a result, they get on each other's nerves from time to time. According to him, North Korea's policy of heightening tensions makes some sense, but it is risky and pointless for Seoul. However, neither Seoul nor Pyongyang want a genuine war to break out, but instead want to better their bargaining positions in the long run, the expert believes.
The US has stepped up helicopter and ground raids in Syria against members of the Islamic State (banned in the Russian Federation). According to military officials, the operations, which are sometimes carried out in collaboration with Washington's local partners, make it possible to counter field commanders in their attack preparations. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta the Pentagon's willingness to expand the boundaries of its zone of operations for this purpose challenges not just the Assad government, but also its external allies, Russia and Iran.
According to the US Armed Forces' Central Command, American special forces conducted at least ten operations against IS members this month alone. The campaign involved multiple sorties organized in collaboration with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a pro-Kurdish group, and culminated in the capture of six terrorist fighters.
"Because such US airstrikes are carried out mostly in the east and northeast of Syria, the dangers of any confrontations with the Russian or Syrian militaries are relatively low here," military expert Yuri Lyamin told the newspaper. "These lands are primarily controlled by Kurdish groups, which are closely linked to the US. However, attempts to launch raids in regions held by government forces significantly raise the potential of an escalation," he noted.
The expert emphasized that increasing the intensity of raids traditionally raises dangers of potential losses. "Moreover, escalating such activities may worsen US relations with Syria and another Syrian ally, Iran," Lyamin warned.
The NATO mission in the partially recognized Republic of Kosovo will not take decisive steps to resolve the conflict between Belgrade and Pristina. According to the Serbian parliament, the North Atlantic Alliance’s forces are not remaining neutral and are siding with the Kosovo authorities, Izvestia writes.
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The border situation remains tense. On the evening of December 25, gunshots were heard in one of Kosovo's Serbian communities, not far from the NATO mission's patrol. Against this backdrop, the chief of the Serbian General Staff and the Minister of Defense headed to the administrative line, declaring the need for the Serbian military. Experts told Izvestia, Belgrade is unlikely to send soldiers into the region since doing so would risk not just direct violence between Serbs and Kosovo Albanians, but also repercussions from the West.
Program Coordinator at the Russian International Affairs Council Milan Lazovich told the newspaper, the situation in the region is difficult. "It is hard to predict how the situation will further unfold, but I think that Serbian troops are unlikely to be brought there. At this stage, they cannot afford to quarrel with the West," he said.
The EU’s mediation mechanism may be involved to resolve the conflict, according to the expert.
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