Putin Recognizes Donbass Republics, Sends Russian Military to 'Denazify' Ukraine
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The Purple Grape
The Force is Strong With This One
Fair enough. Here we go then.For now, let me suggest some main elements on the table for fellow members to consider and discuss from my observations and assessment so far:
1) Russia would not typically agree to sit down and talk if they felt their invasion progress was going according to plan (see: the failure to back door Kiyv with Air Mobile Special Forces). Russian doctrine is to never look weak and to always push through on mission objectives until they are completed, and then talk from a position of overpowering strength and leverage.
2) In spite of what is being observed from force location maps shared online, Russian objectives were clearly centered on quick over-run and capture of Kiyv. Again Russian doctrine is to cut off the head of the opposition, in order to hasten control. At the same time, Russian doctrine is to hit everywhere at once to try to spread out defense responses. For this conflict, that means fast capture of Kiyv and the leadership, installation of a military governor and then work to consolidate gains while spreading out Ukraine defenses with wide attacks on all sides.
Russian military doctrine generally follows a strategy of lighting fast combined arms action to quickly overwhelm an opposing force. Generally, this means they want to set up forward mobile air bridges behind enemy lines, to distract and weaken while a main assault over land progresses, and do so within the first 72 hours while ground forces keep pressure on the attacking front. This did not happen, and the main northern forces of Russia are now bogged down in multi-mile long convoys sitting, waiting for new orders and possibly resupply.
3) Ukraine wants the Russians to stop and go back home and leave them alone. And they appear to be quite capable of forcing their will in this regard to some extent by fighting rather than caving to Russian demands.
4) I do not think the talks will result in both parties agreeing to disagree, or reach a peace and return to their starting points though. Russia is likely agreeing to meet to buy time as they regroup and change tactics and strategy. Ukraine is in full defensive posture and will apparently fight to the end, but if talks can resolve things they are willing to talk. But Ukraine is also buying time here as the EU begins to send them needed supplies and defensive weaponry so that they are not fighting Russians with sticks and stones. Putin's anger and rage on full display this last week, sends a clear signal that he is the wild card here and he does have the control here to bring it all down in a massive conflict if he chooses.
So both sides need to reckon with where they are at this point in time and I do not expect either side to back down. but I do hope I am wrong in my assessment. Unfortunately, if conflict continues, it will be street by street in the cities, and frankly the Russians currently do not have sufficient troops to win at this. Generally speaking you need a 5 to 1 superiority in forces and manpower to successfully assault a city in defensive posture with determined defenders. The Russians have a very tough nut to crack here now.
5) My bottom line assessment is Russia expected to win quickly and on the "cheap". By this I mean they did not expect their combined arms actions to stall so quickly and they also did not use the best of the Russian units in their OoB. Further, it is pretty clear that even the Russain Special forces were not Russian Spetsnaz, but rather Chechen Special Forces units (not that they are any less brutal or capable, just more easily replaced). Further, photos of captured Russian troops that I have observed from credible sources shows them to be largely ethnic minority units, not mainline Russian forces.
6) Full mobilization alerts ordered by Putin for all Russian armed forces yesterday, to me signals that Putin may be ready to roll the dice and go all in with first line Russian troops, after softening up the Ukrainians with second line forces that we currently see in play. If so, then Russia is definitely just meeting to buy time, to allow forces well inside Russia to redeploy.
7) Russian strategy is somewhat hampered by the fact that Russia does not want to destroy Ukraine in the process of invasion, but rather to take control through quick mobile action in force and to limit destruction of property, infrastructure, and people. Clearly, the Ukraine disagrees and is willing to stand their ground and make Russia fight for every inch of territory.
Of course I could be wrong. But as a student of military history and strategy, I think I have it more right than wrong in this case. And having played many cold war Russia Vs Nato military table top war games over many years when I was younger, I have a pretty good handle on Russian military doctrine and tactics, and have often role played a Russian commander with an order of battle and clear objectives, at a divisional level. Ukraine military doctrine is also quite similar (carry over of long standing Soviet Doctrines), so in some ways Russia is fighting against their own military doctrines and tactics.
That shared, I would encourage us as a community to focus our energy positively on quick and peaceful resolution, regardless of our personal feeling about the nature and motivators of this conflict. Russians and Ukrainians are dying even as folks oogle over all the screen shots and blog posts (often contradicting each other, or straight out disinformation) coming from all directions about the conflict. Forget sides, I am concerned about the people caught in the middle.
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Speaking of which, could anyone here that is currently in russia try if the above link works for them?
I hear you The Bull but if we stand back from this for a moment, and think about Covid as being the overt test of 'the programming is complete' model, and then see Russia the evil bogeyman as the logical follow on to ram home the advantage and create the total 'we're all in this together' 'hate thy neighbor' mode they'd so insidiously planted over the past few years, then it all makes a perverted sense. What did Churchill say...
"Never let a good crisis go to waste"
Then there's that other great chestnut....
We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false.
CIA Director, William-Casey, White House Briefing, 1981
etc, etc, etc....
Even more than during Covid I think strategic enclosure is essential going forward. This is what we now face for real:
On another note, I confess I'm baffled by this:
Ukraine-Russia negotiations have reached ‘certain decisions’
Whilst its crystal clear why the Nazis would ask for a parley (to buy time, to slow the Russians down, to allow all kinds of things to go on whilst they make promises they wont keep and seek to entrap the Russians into having to accept terms from those who have no terms but hell to offer, etc), for the life of me I cannot understand why Putin would stoop to enter into negotiations at this crucial military stage knowing full well they lie, they lie, they lie - and all the time they seek to suck him into a perpetual quagmire that he full well knows is an existential threat to Russia's survival.... I assumed Nazis exterminated followed by negotiations with sane Ukraine... but this at this moment?
So I'd welcome suggestions...
Still, I've seen nothing over the past 5 days to contradict the suggestion that the real war is being waged upon us.... so keep watch out on the home front for likely 'cyber-events' brewing.... as others have noted, the perfect cover story is now in place for many a chicken to come home to roost...
For now, let me suggest some main elements on the table for fellow members to consider and discuss from my observations and assessment so far:
1) Russia would not typically agree to sit down and talk if they felt their invasion progress was going according to plan (see: the failure to back door Kiyv with Air Mobile Special Forces). Russian doctrine is to never look weak and to always push through on mission objectives until they are completed, and then talk from a position of overpowering strength and leverage.
2) In spite of what is being observed from force location maps shared online, Russian objectives were clearly centered on quick over-run and capture of Kiyv. Again Russian doctrine is to cut off the head of the opposition, in order to hasten control. At the same time, Russian doctrine is to hit everywhere at once to try to spread out defense responses. For this conflict, that means fast capture of Kiyv and the leadership, installation of a military governor and then work to consolidate gains while spreading out Ukraine defenses with wide attacks on all sides.
Russian military doctrine generally follows a strategy of lighting fast combined arms action to quickly overwhelm an opposing force. Generally, this means they want to set up forward mobile air bridges behind enemy lines, to distract and weaken while a main assault over land progresses, and do so within the first 72 hours while ground forces keep pressure on the attacking front. This did not happen, and the main northern forces of Russia are now bogged down in multi-mile long convoys sitting, waiting for new orders and possibly resupply.
3) Ukraine wants the Russians to stop and go back home and leave them alone. And they appear to be quite capable of forcing their will in this regard to some extent by fighting rather than caving to Russian demands.
4) I do not think the talks will result in both parties agreeing to disagree, or reach a peace and return to their starting points though. Russia is likely agreeing to meet to buy time as they regroup and change tactics and strategy. Ukraine is in full defensive posture and will apparently fight to the end, but if talks can resolve things they are willing to talk. But Ukraine is also buying time here as the EU begins to send them needed supplies and defensive weaponry so that they are not fighting Russians with sticks and stones. Putin's anger and rage on full display this last week, sends a clear signal that he is the wild card here and he does have the control here to bring it all down in a massive conflict if he chooses.
So both sides need to reckon with where they are at this point in time and I do not expect either side to back down. but I do hope I am wrong in my assessment. Unfortunately, if conflict continues, it will be street by street in the cities, and frankly the Russians currently do not have sufficient troops to win at this. Generally speaking you need a 5 to 1 superiority in forces and manpower to successfully assault a city in defensive posture with determined defenders. The Russians have a very tough nut to crack here now.
5) My bottom line assessment is Russia expected to win quickly and on the "cheap". By this I mean they did not expect their combined arms actions to stall so quickly and they also did not use the best of the Russian units in their OoB. Further, it is pretty clear that even the Russain Special forces were not Russian Spetsnaz, but rather Chechen Special Forces units (not that they are any less brutal or capable, just more easily replaced). Further, photos of captured Russian troops that I have observed from credible sources shows them to be largely ethnic minority units, not mainline Russian forces.
6) Full mobilization alerts ordered by Putin for all Russian armed forces yesterday, to me signals that Putin may be ready to roll the dice and go all in with first line Russian troops, after softening up the Ukrainians with second line forces that we currently see in play. If so, then Russia is definitely just meeting to buy time, to allow forces well inside Russia to redeploy.
7) Russian strategy is somewhat hampered by the fact that Russia does not want to destroy Ukraine in the process of invasion, but rather to take control through quick mobile action in force and to limit destruction of property, infrastructure, and people. Clearly, the Ukraine disagrees and is willing to stand their ground and make Russia fight for every inch of territory.
Of course I could be wrong. But as a student of military history and strategy, I think I have it more right than wrong in this case. And having played many cold war Russia Vs Nato military table top war games over many years when I was younger, I have a pretty good handle on Russian military doctrine and tactics, and have often role played a Russian commander with an order of battle and clear objectives, at a divisional level. Ukraine military doctrine is also quite similar (carry over of long standing Soviet Doctrines), so in some ways Russia is fighting against their own military doctrines and tactics.
That shared, I would encourage us as a community to focus our energy positively on quick and peaceful resolution, regardless of our personal feeling about the nature and motivators of this conflict. Russians and Ukrainians are dying even as folks oogle over all the screen shots and blog posts (often contradicting each other, or straight out disinformation) coming from all directions about the conflict. Forget sides, I am concerned about the people caught in the middle.
Thank you very much The Purple Grape. As you say, you may not be right but I suspect you are likely more right than wrong. You've added much helpful context and insight so again thank you.
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Elisasheva
Jedi
When it comes to Polish sources, I recommend this channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/CW24tv/videos
Cool explanation and analysis from our, Polish, point of view.
But I don't know any more sources like this unfortunately. I guess there really isn't many.
I have a similar issue with my friends from art school, the problem is they talk about it all the time, sharing these false info from twitter and taking it as a truth, while most of it are false information spreading like a disease. I honestly have a hard time trying to bear this situation, I really like these people, they are good and great, but they don't wanna listen to anything I have to say. I don't even try anymore after I've heard from one guy that "tvn24 (Polish MSM channel) is a quite good source of information, but I respect your opinion" after I told him that maybe it's not too good to base our whole picture of reality on MSM. Good that he at least "respects" that someone is seeking the truth somewhere and not believing everything someone else is telling them... Respects but he himself prefers just following the lies because it's easier. I can't with those people. I feel like there's a huge gap between us now. But I know that this situation is way harder to understand and question than covid thing (well, they ate the covid lie as well, so what do I really expect).
I'm starting to be afraid of how it will escalate in the future. How it all will end.
Hi_Henry
The Living Force
As a matter of fact I JUST found that out. I must say it did fool me as the colors help in hiding the manipulation. For some reason I wanted to see where else this picture was found and then .... BINGO !!!
More than two-thirds of Russians support Russian special operation in Ukraine - poll
https://twitter.com/spriter99880/status/1498412657669509124
The detail you're missing is that Putin looks to be trying to limit the loss of life on both sides and for both soldiers and civilians. He doesn't want to take over Ukraine, he wants to de-CIAify it. Sitting down to talk is not weak when you have your enemy completely surrounded and have air and land superiority. I would think his actions over the last 8 years show that he does not view diplomatic solutions over war as a sign of weakness. He seems to be doing all he can to keep Ukrainian infrastructure intact. This is not at all a typical war, so I'm not sure that applying "Russian doctrine" is useful. This is a "special operation" after all.
For now, let me suggest some main elements on the table for fellow members to consider and discuss from my observations and assessment so far:
1) Russia would not typically agree to sit down and talk if they felt their invasion progress was going according to plan (see: the failure to back door Kiyv with Air Mobile Special Forces). Russian doctrine is to never look weak and to always push through on mission objectives until they are completed, and then talk from a position of overpowering strength and leverage.
I think you're wrong here. The reports are that Russia has held back at least half its troops that were stationed on the western front next to Ukraine. If Russian objectives were to quickly overrun Kiev, they would not have done that. Again, that speaks to Putin's objective not to destroy Ukraine's infrastructure and limit the loss of life.
That seems to be exactly what happened. Yes the Ukies blew up bridges and that could very well have slowed down Russia, but I doubt that caught anyone by surprise.
Ukraine's navy and air force was crippled the first night. It took the Russians 3 whole days to encircle Kiev. I don't see any way they can do anything close to "forcing their will".
The EU is not being as helpful as it seems. They were supposed to send them fighter jets. Both Bulgaria and Poland refused. Putin's anger and rage? I don't know where you're getting that from.
Ok so if you understand that, then how come you view it as Russia struggling? It seems like you're being a bit slavish to the idea that everything must be quick and clean with this operation.
This isn't a Russia vs. NATO war on a battlefield. It's Russia cleaning out the CIA/Nazi groups embedded within the Ukrainian military and leadership, not invading and occupying it. I'm not sure that applying military history and strategy is the best method in analyzing what's going on.
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Hi_Henry
The Living Force
Then remind your friends to go and find out about this,
Ask them why were the Allies doing nothing while their relatives were fighting the Germans in 1939 ?
Phoney War - Wikipedia
Ask them why your border were shifted in such a way that you lost Lvov and gained German lands which TO THIS DAY GERMANS still think are theirs. If Germans say otherwise one needs to be a fool to believe that.
Why wasn't Poland at the talks when this was happening ?
I'll tell you. Because Poland like Ukraine is a PAWN.
ApotheosisMMC.
Jedi Council Member
More manipulated videos in which vehicles are drawn with a Z, the BBC also showed that some videos of air raids were from previous conflicts.
Zelensky on negotiations with the Russian delegation: there is no result that Ukraine needs yet.
Zelensky on negotiations with the Russian delegation: there is no result that Ukraine needs yet.
They are in a position of overpowering strength, that's why they're open to talking.
You don't think encircling Kiev in 4 days is quick???
There is zero chance that Russian forces will go back home. Kiev will be taken, although if the Ukies have their way, it will be with as much Ukrainian civilian bloodshed as possible.
Hi_Henry
The Living Force
Wow, NATO is very generous. If I was Ukranian , which I'm not, I would not risk my life for people like Zelensky, Klitschkos, Tymoshenko and the rest of that elite class called the Oligarchs. They own Ukraine while the rest are in poverty and forced to find work in the EU !!!!
I would rather risk my chances with the Russians because the EU will give nothing but promises. Sure, in the beginning things will look great but with time all that was given will be skillfully TAKEN AWAY. You will be fighting climate change ($$$), defense budgets ($$$), modernizing education ($$$) resulting in woke/gender confused generations ...... and finally end with full digital integration where freedom will be a term defined as per the book "1984" .
dredger
The Living Force
Hi there,
I'll not discuss about your comments on the tactical situation, but regarding your last paragraph. I feel something missing, i mean, what about these people who are caught in the middle since 8 years in the East of the Ukraine ? The government had 8 years to accept peace but they refused it. And now that the tide turned, you encourage us to wish for peace which would mean let these assassins unpunished ?
Your overall long post make me feel like a further wishful thinking of a west military who try to save the day, or re-assure himself. No offense please, this is just a general feeling. Anyway, time will tell.
I ran across this.., analysis (I suppose you could call it that), from a guy who has both the chops for excellent observation and communication, and has served in two wars.
He calls this the weirdest war he's ever seen. Mostly he seems flabbergasted by what he has seen so far; nobody appears to know what they're doing.
He calls this the weirdest war he's ever seen. Mostly he seems flabbergasted by what he has seen so far; nobody appears to know what they're doing.
