Latest from Alastair Crook :
The EU leadership is resolved to ignore protest messaging, however loud it becomes. There is a whiff of desperation floating across the Brussels battlespace. Forget…
strategic-culture.org
Doing ‘Whatever It Takes’ to Keep Europe in ‘Intervention Lockstep’ (paraphrasing Jaroslav Zajiček, Czech Coreper Ambassador)
"...Separately, but as part of the collective West’s financial war on Russia, the G7 finance ministers
have agreed to proceed with a plan to cap the price of Russian oil exports. This initiative would not replace G7 countries’, or the EU’s separate embargoes on Russian oil, but would be supplemental
Since over 90% of the world’s ships are insured through London-based insurers like Lloyds of London, U.S. and EU officials expect the initiative to impact Russian energy revenues massively. The cap would be actuated through the “comprehensive prohibition of (insurance) services” that would be permitted only where the cargoes are purchased at, or below a price, that will be set by a “broad coalition of countries”.
This scheme essentially is the brainchild of U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen: “This price cap is one of the most powerful tools we have to fight inflation and protect workers and businesses in the United States and globally from future price spikes caused by global disruptions.”
In Yellen’s vision, the price would be set above the price level that Russia requires to balance its national budget (and thus incentivise Russia to continue to pump oil); yet be below the price required to keep western economies thriving – and low enough deeply to cut into Russia’s oil revenues, thereby weakening its economy, and its war effort.
But it won’t work. Russia can
easily replace Western insurance. The two main paths are self-insurance (you reserve part of your revenues in a fund to pay claims if needed), and captive insurance (you set up your own insurance companies with participation by affected parties). Shakespeare actually described it in The Merchant of Venice in 1598.
Simply put, Russia can easily get insurance on other markets not participating in the boycott including Dubai, India, and China – along with Russia itself. So, insurance will not serve as an effective weapon against Russia, and the price cap will fail.
In essence, Russia has both effectively won the military war in Ukraine, and the global financial sanctions war (though both are far from over). The longer the denial continues, the more Europe will be hurt economically. That is obvious; and also obvious is that it will be ugly this winter in Europe"
"....In any event, the EU is built as a steamroller steadily crushing flat the path towards more central control; more news management; more citizen surveillance. The acquis, the ECJ, and the bureaucracy simply grind forwards in unstoppable momentum: Reverse gear was never included. In fact, the architecture has almost no provision for reversal, except by invoking Article 50 – quitting the Union, and that intentionally has been made unbearably painful.
So, expect the EU leaders dogmatically to persist with transforming the EU into a Soviet-style command economy. And even to seek more powers, the more the economy weakens. The EU is sanguine that public protests can, and will be, repressed forcibly (possibly with the army on the streets). Protests have begun. However, it is only September, and the haze of summer still lingers on … winter beckons, yet somehow seems a distance away.
What is certain is that with the EU massively supporting demand through widespread bailouts – at a time of already reduced supply and aggravated by command economy type disruptions and shortages – higher inflation is coming, and the Euro will be ‘toast’.
Is there a way out? Perhaps a figure will arise, taking all by surprise. Maybe the Euro crashing and the U.S. November midterm election outcomes will be the catalyst that will allow such a figure to arise and articulate a vision that seems to offer some solution. The solution, after all, is pretty obvious. But first, comes the pain."