Role of Russia

[Persej]

Project closed, Sauron shall not pass.
The authors of the idea officially apologized saying they didn't mean to hurt anyone's feelings and didn't expect such strong public criticism.

They have some interesting photos on their FB page. I think they meant no harm. But it is a very bad timing.

 

[anothermagyar]

Brilliant comment from a great (as usually) speech. First saw it at Sakers' but comes from News conference following state visit to Turkey.

[quote author=Percival=The Saker] The quote by Putin which says it all...

"My Bulgarian colleagues have always told me that whatever happens, they would certainly implement South Stream, because this corresponds to their national interests. But here, unfortunately, this did not come to pass. If Bulgaria is deprived of the opportunity to act as a sovereign nation, then they should at least demand money from the European Commission to compensate for their lost profits, because direct revenues to Bulgaria’s budget alone would have been no less than 400 million Euros a year. But ultimately, this is also the choice of our Bulgarian partners; it seems they have certain obligations. Still, that’s not our business – it’s our partners’ business."

[/quote]

[quote author=Laura]Things may begin to sort themselves out rapidly as it gets colder. But I doubt that the US will back down. Psychopaths just can't understand consequences. [/quote]

Siberia on December 07, 2014, 03:25:17 PM


Yes, me too. Also, not sure if it was mentioned, but on Monday, the EU reps are planning to visit Turkey: to demand more "action against ISIS" and sanctions against Russia. Turkey has been waiting to join EU for 51 years ever since the signing of the accession agreement. Will Turkey now buy EU's promises or even threats?


Hopefully, by now, Turkey sees what a trap and a failure the EU is and how it is rapidly sinking into the pit and being dominated by the US and will show them all the door.

That's what the Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban realized, also, how much the EU is in the pocket of Washington and forcing EU members to do as they say: sanctions against Russia, meanwhile it has been long long the entire Europe getting the gas 85% from Russia.

I just find this:

U.S. ready to help Hungary build energy independence: diplomat

Reuters

7:49 a.m. EST, December 6, 2014
The United States is willing to help Hungary and other European countries build energy infrastructure to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas, U.S. Chargé d'Affaires in Budapest André Goodfriend has told Nepszava newspaper.

"Relying on Russian sources threatens energy independence," Goodfriend told Nepszava in an interview published on Saturday. "We are ready to help the country build real energy independence."

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has drawn criticism from Western governments for trying to secure supplies of energy and trade for Hungary by doing deals with Moscow. Critics say he should not be cosying up to Russia when it has sent troops into Ukraine.

On Friday, Orban accused the European Union of sabotaging the Russian-backed South Stream gas pipeline project, which was scrapped this week in a setback to his strategy of closer ties with the Kremlin.

Hungary backed South Stream because it wanted a source of gas that did not go through Ukraine, a route vulnerable to disruption.

"With its eastern opening, Hungary clearly pursues an energy policy independent of the European Union," Goodfriend said. "The fact that they planned to build a second pipeline from Russia and they want to increase nuclear energy production, that is what threatens Hungary's energy independence."

Orban signed a 10 billion euro ($12.3 billion) construction-and-financing deal with Russian president Vladimir Putin this year to double the capacity of the country's Paks nuclear power plant with two new reactors.

Goodfriend said the United States had spoken to Hungary and other countries about the infrastructure needed - including liquefied natural gas terminals and interconnectors to national pipeline networks - to get multiple sources of oil and gas.

"Currently the pipeline goes one way (from Russia to Europe) which leaves both Europe and Hungary extremely exposed," he said. "If that changes, energy can arrive from the Middle East, even the United States."

A source with knowledge of the Hungarian government's plans on energy told Reuters on Friday that Budapest want to close the book on South Stream and look to Europe to help construct a unified European gas network.

(US dollar = 0.8140 euro)

(Reporting by Marton Dunai; editing by Susan Thomas)

_http://www.ctnow.com/news/sns-rt-us-hungary-usa-gas-20141206,0,5859122.story

They are desperate, for sure.

 

[SeekinTruth]

Yeah, they are desperate AND delusional! The name Goodfriend is so symbolic too - how the US and their minions are actually bad enemies of those they're constantly trying to shake down, while pretending to be good friends....

 

[Keit]

Just a note that the annual "year's summary" press conference with Putin is going to be on 18th of December at 12:00 (GMT+3). It's not the "communication with the people" one, but only with journalists. It's going to be the 10th conference of this kind, and the longest (that happened in 2008) went on for almost 5 hours.

 

[Keit]

Just a note that the annual "year's summary" press conference with Putin is going to be on 18th of December at 12:00 (GMT+3). It's not the "communication with the people" one, but only with journalists. It's going to be the 10th conference of this kind, and the longest (that happened in 2008) went on for almost 5 hours.

Here's its trailer on Russia 1. Notice how they cover all the topics, not only political ones. Should be interesting.

http://<iframe width="640" height="...sU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Mr.Cyan]

Just a note that the annual "year's summary" press conference with Putin is going to be on 18th of December at 12:00 (GMT+3). It's not the "communication with the people" one, but only with journalists. It's going to be the 10th conference of this kind, and the longest (that happened in 2008) went on for almost 5 hours.

Thanks Keit for the heads up on this. Can't wait to hear Putin's views, as the Russian rouble is currently under serious attack, most likely a "pay back" for the South Stream cancellation & the Turkish Gas deal...

 

[SeekinTruth]

I think the Ruble is under attack as a last, desperate attempt to bring Russia to give in to the psychopathic demands of the "West".

 

[l apprenti de forgeron]

Yes, it's true. But Russia has bought in recent times an enormous amount of physical gold. Western pressure will continue with sanctions, but can not do much more. Russia must remain firm and continue buying physical gold, which is the anti-dollar.

 

[Mr.Cyan]

Yes, it's true. But Russia has bought in recent times an enormous amount of physical gold. Western pressure will continue with sanctions, but can not do much more. Russia must remain firm and continue buying physical gold, which is the anti-dollar.

Agreed, I think both Russia, and China are gradually but surely putting in place the measures to "switch" away from the dollar denominated global system (buying of physical gold, currency swaps between Ruble and Yuan, long term energy, transport, military and infrastruture deals etc.). They know exactly what they are doing - and the big question will be when the "button" is pushed for the switch...

As the C's mentioned in their 30th August 2014 session:

"Still waters run deep and strong. The USA and allies are in for a rude and painful awakening"

Nonetheless the Empire of Chaos will still definitely continue to behave in its psychopatic ways - more trouble to come down the road, and it is truly painful nowadays watching the daily news knowing that millions of lives are affected by these psychopatic actions....sigh !

 

[SeekinTruth]

Yup, the replacement of the Petrodollar/dollar reserve is what's being tried to be prevented by everything the Empire and the bankster cabal has. But they can't really do much about it. The whole thing would have collapsed on its own, but by pushing Russia, China, and the entire BRICS and Non-Aligned Movement (the vast majority of countries), they just sped up the end of the hegemony by at least a year or two.

 

[Siberia]

I've been watching today's press conference with the President, which was very interesting and enlightening as always, and it seems that this one was among the most important as well, because it gave good clues as to what is being done to support our currency and economics in general. One of the key subjects was the recent ruble rally, of course, and what was said in this regard was must curious.

There have been hot debates all this week around the currency devaluation and the attempts by the Central Bank to stabilize it. Three main opinions prevailed:

1) We must exit dollars right now and introduce the so called "golden standard" instead. This group of people suggests that Russia has already accumulated enough gold to replace dollar as a reserve currency. This is a very radical view and needs further study and analysis.

2) Another group is represented by the so called "Eurasian sovereignists" who suggest that the Bank of Russia should reduce the exchange rate instead of raising it, thus allowing better access to lending. They suggest forgetting about inflation and promoting cheap lending to boost economic growth and development.

3) The third group includes the Government and the Bank of Russia who raised the key rate up to 17 percent Monday night.

Needless to say that there has been lots of critics abut the CBR's urgent measures after Monday's loss of value by the ruble, because those measures caused panic and misunderstanding. Lending in Russia is still paralyzed, by the way.

But what has actually been done and whose position is right? This became clear only today and this is what the Bank of Russia should have explained earlier this week without waiting for the President to do it for them.

In reality, the Central Bank combined variants 2 and 3:

1) On the one hand, they indeed raised the key rate up to 17 persent, thus making consumer lending practically unavailable. The banks will have no choice but to raise their own rates so high that consumer lending becomes unattractive.

2) On the other hand, which is very important, and which was explained by the President, they left the key rate unchanged for the project funding (9.5%) and small corporate lending (6.5%).

What does it mean? Before this, Russian banks didn't care much about corporate lending and practically forgot about project funding. Why taking risks with some new projects when you can simply sell expensive loans to the people en masse? They preferred "enslaving" ordinary people, while corporate lending was largely abandoned.

On Tuesday, everything changed for the banks. Neither they can offer affordable rates to the people anymore, nor the people will desire themselves to take loans during economic uncertainties.

The situation with businesses is quite the opposite. Their need for affordable funding is only increasing with the limited access to international funding.

Lending is the major part of any bank's profit. Without lending, commercial banks will hardly survive. After losing consumer market they will be forced now to switch their attention to the corporate lending instead. It means that they will concentrate on the real business development, instead of selling expensive consumer loans. And they can do it at exactly the same rates as before, because the CBR rates remain unchanged for it.

So, by this decision, the Bank of Russia at the same time prevents further unnecessary indebtedness of the population and stimulates corporate lending for business development. Or at least this is my humble understanding.

Also, he said that the Government will help people with mortgage problems, if needed (via subsidies). All the social programs will be preserved; and pensions will increase next year as planned.

We'll see how it all works soon. fwiw :)

 

[aragorn]

This economist, Peter Koenig, thinks that letting the ruble plummet is part of the plan:

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.fi/2014/12/free-fall-of-ruble-brilliant-ploy-of.html

When Russia deems that her currency has reached rock-bottom, she will buy back cheap rubles in the market with massive amounts of dollars. Russia may then flood the western market – with dollars, and by now we know what that does to a currency – and simultaneously buy back rubles from the West. A brilliant move to reestablish Russia’s currency in a new emerging monetary system – which Europe would be welcome to join, but willingly, no by Washington style arm-twisting.

Is this another precursor to war? A nuclear confrontation or Cold War II? – Precursor to a false flag attempting Moscow to fall into the trap? - Not necessarily. Russia is playing a clever chess game, diplomacy at its best. Instead of sabre rattling – Russia is coin rattling. It might lead to a western financial fiasco early in 2015 for the dollar and euro denominated economies. And the winner is…

Lets see if Putin can score yet another victory with this sort of economic chess move, that the arrogant Western leaders in their blindness haven't taken into consideration.

 

[Approaching Infinity]

Just started reading Alexander Dugin's new book (released in Russian in 2012), Putin vs. Putin. Very good so far. So far, he's written about how Putin was essentially put in power by certain people thinking he'd follow the script. But slowly, things changed and it turned out they'd miscalculated. In a section "the 12 labors of Putin", Dugin lists 6 of Putin's biggest accomplishments (some unfinished), and 6 things he has yet to do:

1) Defeating Wahhabism, thus preventing the disintegration of Russia
2) Cutting down the parochial Federation Council and making the governors obedient
3) Introducing federal districts, giving power (albeit nominal) to civil servants
4) Exiling and cutting down to size the oligarchs
5) Integration: CIS, EurAsEC, CES
6) Multipolar worldview

7) Fully completing 1-6
8) Making up his mind regarding relations with the US (looks like recent events have changed that)
9) Abandoning radical-liberal economics (the ruble crisis, and what happens next, may change this too)
10) Cleaning house in the government (still plenty of corruption, West-lovers, liberals, etc.)
11) Surrounding himself with a fully efficient team (see above)
12) Strengthening the Eurasian ideology

We know how Putin operates. He doesn't make a decision until he KNOWS it is the right one. He is patient and exhausts all possibilities before coming to the point of no return. It looks like that's what he's doing with the ruble crisis: exhausting existing options. If these measures don't work, it would be the perfect opportunity to implement #9 and #10. Time to sit back and watch the show!

 

[Siberia]

Also found this short article, not sure if it was mentioned: China, Russia Dump US Treasurys In October As Foreigners Sell Most US Stocks Since 2007.

There is also a funny article by Bloomberg: Ruble Collapses, Russians Yawn. :)

 

[MichaelM]

Thanks Siberia for the presscon recap and your take on current events in Russia.

This economist, Peter Koenig, thinks that letting the ruble plummet is part of the plan

I agree that the devaluation might be part of the plan. And that it might be tied-in with the fairly recent (this month) announcement from Putin about money repatriation.
_http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-04/putin-offers-full-amnesty-money-repatriation-threatens-crackdown-against-fx-speculat

Or maybe I have it the other way around? That the sudden ruble devaluation is the (West's) response to Putin's call to money repatriation?


My take is that the devaluation would primarily affect imports but should have little to no effect on domestically produced items. And Russia has been moving in that direction already with the banning of agricultural imports from the EU.

Russia and China already have trade agreements with direct Ruble to Yuan conversions. The only thing left would be to sever reference to the USD entirely (i.e. Ruble to Yuan conversions would have a different forex table, one that does not include the USD).

Some musings on ZH and other economics-related sites suggest that if Russia is selling its gold to "defend the Ruble" that rumor
_http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-18/russia-has-begun-selling-its-gold-according-socgen
could be:
- a fabrication by the West main stream media
- could be true but Russia is selling to China
We'll only find out the real story in the coming months.

When Russia deems that her currency has reached rock-bottom, she will buy back cheap rubles in the market with massive amounts of dollars. Russia may then flood the western market – with dollars, and by now we know what that does to a currency – and simultaneously buy back rubles from the West. A brilliant move to reestablish Russia’s currency in a new emerging monetary system – which Europe would be welcome to join, but willingly, no by Washington style arm-twisting.

Is this another precursor to war? A nuclear confrontation or Cold War II? – Precursor to a false flag attempting Moscow to fall into the trap? - Not necessarily. Russia is playing a clever chess game, diplomacy at its best. Instead of sabre rattling – Russia is coin rattling. It might lead to a western financial fiasco early in 2015 for the dollar and euro denominated economies. And the winner is…

Will we have another Cassiopaea hit with "April drop dead date"? One could only hope.