Michael Martin said:Thanks Siberia for the presscon recap and your take on current events in Russia.
This economist, Peter Koenig, thinks that letting the ruble plummet is part of the plan
I agree that the devaluation might be part of the plan. And that it might be tied-in with the fairly recent (this month) announcement from Putin about money repatriation.
_http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-04/putin-offers-full-amnesty-money-repatriation-threatens-crackdown-against-fx-speculat
Or maybe I have it the other way around? That the sudden ruble devaluation is the (West's) response to Putin's call to money repatriation?
Thanks for your comment Michael Martin. I think this ruble devaluation is largely an attempt by the Wall Street wolves to prevent Russia from restoring its sovereignty to the full extent. At the same time, Putin also has some strong cards to play in response: like making friends instead of waging wars, for one example. :)
Michael Martin said:My take is that the devaluation would primarily affect imports but should have little to no effect on domestically produced items. And Russia has been moving in that direction already with the banning of agricultural imports from the EU.
Russia and China already have trade agreements with direct Ruble to Yuan conversions. The only thing left would be to sever reference to the USD entirely (i.e. Ruble to Yuan conversions would have a different forex table, one that does not include the USD).
Yes, this is a very good chance for domestic producers to strengthen their market position and make us more independent from imports. By the way, despite crazy weather, Russia's managed to harvest record amount of grain this year.
Also, you are right about ruble/yuan trade: Russia already trades with China in national currencies, as well as with some other countries. Besides, Russia sells her energy resources for physical gold.
Michael Martin said:Some musings on ZH and other economics-related sites suggest that if Russia is selling its gold to "defend the Ruble" that rumor
_http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-18/russia-has-begun-selling-its-gold-according-socgen
could be:
- a fabrication by the West main stream media
- could be true but Russia is selling to China
We'll only find out the real story in the coming months.
I've also heard this rumor, but it sounds unlikely, imo. We'll see soon, if it's true or not. The Government indeed applied additional measures these days, including selling out excessive forex reserves by the Ministry of Finance, which strengthened back the ruble up to Monday's (before the fall) levels. But those were forex reserves, not gold.
Michael Martin said:When Russia deems that her currency has reached rock-bottom, she will buy back cheap rubles in the market with massive amounts of dollars. Russia may then flood the western market – with dollars, and by now we know what that does to a currency – and simultaneously buy back rubles from the West. A brilliant move to reestablish Russia’s currency in a new emerging monetary system – which Europe would be welcome to join, but willingly, no by Washington style arm-twisting.
Is this another precursor to war? A nuclear confrontation or Cold War II? – Precursor to a false flag attempting Moscow to fall into the trap? - Not necessarily. Russia is playing a clever chess game, diplomacy at its best. Instead of sabre rattling – Russia is coin rattling. It might lead to a western financial fiasco early in 2015 for the dollar and euro denominated economies. And the winner is…
Will we have another Cassiopaea hit with "April drop dead date"? One could only hope.
Yes, it seems that the nearest months will be most interesting: some major global shift seems to be in the air. Speaking of Russian economy, some serious changes are coming already as soon as January 1, 2015:
1) Eurasian Economic Union to come into effect allowing better trade conditions for its member states: Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia.
2) Russia to launch its fully independent domestic processing of plastic cards, which means that Visa and Mastercard will no longer be physically capable of switching off their service in Russia.
This could be one of the reasons why the White House ilk is so much in a hurry right now with their false-flag and/or war preparations, because time is running dry for them. Russia becomes more and more independent of their influence and they are hysterically trying to undermine Russian economy and wage war between Russia and Europe asap, otherwise their global dominance may quickly turn into complete collapse of their own making. April drop dead date may come even sooner than April, it seems.