Russia Begins Operations in Syria: End Game for the US Empire?

"The Times of Israel" reported yesterday:

US balks at European vision for P5+1-esque talks to solve Syria

Washington doesn’t want them at table, but Europeans point to Iran nuke talks as proof of format’s success’s

UNITED NATIONS — Nine nations or five? In speeches at this year’s UN gathering of world leaders, major powers are increasing calls for multilateral negotiations to end the war in Syria. But Europe and the United States are split on who should be at the table.

The Europeans invoke the success of the Iran nuclear talks in arguing for a similar format — with key additions.

There, Iran negotiated with the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany to reach their July 14 agreement. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius on Wednesday called for a similar arrangement “enlarged with regional partners.”

The Americans, in contrast, want a tighter group, without the Europeans.

Fabius did not elaborate on his vision. But two diplomats told The Associated Press that this time, instead of making demands on Iran, as was the case at the nuclear talks, the Europeans want Tehran to work with them, the Americans, Russians and Chinese on finding a peace formula. Saudi Arabia and Turkey also would be included.

The diplomats — one European the other from the Middle East — said that Britain, France and Germany all spoke up in favor of that format on the sidelines of the UN summit earlier this week during the first meeting of Iran and the six world powers since the nuclear deal was struck.

But the Americans want any negotiations restricted to themselves, the Russians, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Washington accepted being one of six nations at the nuclear negotiations because they came late. After initially refusing to sit at the same table with Tehran the United States joined in 2006, three years after Britain France and Germany reached out to the Islamic Republic.

A US official familiar with the issue said that in the case of Syria, US Secretary of State John Kerry preferred to keep the focus on countries that are directly involved.

He and the diplomats demanded anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the dispute.

Russia, in turn, appears to favor others being kept in the loop, even if they aren’t sitting at the negotiating table.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the Security Council on Thursday that Moscow wants “standing channels of communication to ensure a maximally effective fight.” He listed Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, the U.S. and China as nations with a role in Syria talks. [No EU countries]

Kerry met Lavrov for a third time on the sidelines of the U.N. summit on Wednesday and was expected to convene another small working group of foreign ministers on Syria on Thursday.

The two told reporters that they swapped ideas about potential options for moving ahead with a political transition in the country and would be examining them in the coming days.

Still, Russia’s launch of airstrikes on Syria on Wednesday appeared to leave serious discussions on who should participate in limbo, with Washington and its allies expressing concern that Moscow might have targeted forces opposed to President Bashar Assad instead of Islamic extremists.

Iran-Saudi rivalries further complicate matters, even if that issue is resolved. The diplomats said that Riyadh is reluctant to sit at any table on the same side as Tehran.

The Saudis want to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad, while the Iranians support him. Traditional rivalries have been compounded since last week, with Shiite Iran accusing Sunni Saudi Arabia of gross negligence in the mass deaths of pilgrims in a stampede near Mecca.

Copyright 2015 The Associated Press.

So the US doesn't want the EU on the table when it comes to syria. Maybe they are afraid that they could loose some of the EU states to russias way of handeling the syrian crisis?

But on the other hand, Lavrov doesn't mention the EU either...


Source: _http://www.timesofisrael.com/us-balks-at-european-vision-for-p51-esque-talks-to-solve-syria/
 
Pashalis said:
It is up on german SOTT:

http://de.sott.net/article/19451-Putins-Strategie-geht-auf-FAZ-schiet-sich-ein-dickes-Eigentor

Great article Luc! You are very talented in writing: Kudos!

Would you like to join us on german SOTT?

Thanks for the kind words Pashalis! Actually, I have been toying (and procrastinating) with the idea for some time, so yes, I'd be glad to join you! Do you send me instructions, or how does it work? Thanks!


Laura said:
The whole situation is developing so rapidly, I can hardly keep away from the news feeds and sott! Gads, I've become practically a news junkie!

I feel the same, I can hardly concentrate on anything else, the only remedy was to start some house cleaning and to go outside... Actually, I have been feeling a bit weird for the last couple of days, culminating today in a feeling of profound sadness that seemed to reverberate through every cell of my body for hours, and at the same time clarity and excitement - I don't know, this could be an emotional release of sorts and there could be other personal explanations, but somehow it also feels as if the universe is holding its breath... These events strike me as very important, maybe we are at some major crossroads here? I don't know.
 
luc said:
Pashalis said:
It is up on german SOTT:

http://de.sott.net/article/19451-Putins-Strategie-geht-auf-FAZ-schiet-sich-ein-dickes-Eigentor

Great article Luc! You are very talented in writing: Kudos!

Would you like to join us on german SOTT?

Thanks for the kind words Pashalis! Actually, I have been toying (and procrastinating) with the idea for some time, so yes, I'd be glad to join you! Do you send me instructions, or how does it work? Thanks!

An invitation will soon be on it's way and instructions will follow.
 
Laura said:
Oh, that's priceless, Keit. Hope you get it up on sott with a few smacking comments!

Sure! With a big of delay, but will work on it.
 
Laura said:
In this article, Mike Whitney speculates about the reasons that Putin acted at this moment:

http://www.sott.net/article/303093-Putins-blitz-against-ISIS-in-Syria-leaves-Washington-rankled-and-confused

[...] What does Earnest's statement mean? It means the entire US political class was caught off-guard by Putin's blitz and has not yet settled on an appropriate response.

"The entire US political class was caught off-guard by Putin's blitz" maybe because, unlike Russian Historians, they fail to study "real History" instead of the one they are so busy creating "out of thin air?"

Russia is destabilizing Syria — according to those destabilizing Syria.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-01/russia-destabilizing-syria%E2%80%A6-according-people-currently-destabilizing-syria

Russia’s support for Syria dates back to 1946, when Russia helped consolidate Syria’s independence. The two countries mutually came to a diplomatic and military agreement in the form of a non-aggression pact, which was enacted on April 20, 1950. In this pact, Russia promised support to the newly-created Syria by helping to develop its military and by providing tactical support. Essentially, Russia and Syria have been cooperating for decades both militarily and economically, with Russia maintaining a naval base on the Syrian Mediterranean.


Putin’s Global Game Changer
http://orientalreview.org/2015/10/01/putins-global-game-changer/

Contrary to the expectations of many experts who were predicting a “second Munich” from Vladimir Putin in New York, the Russian president made no grandiose proclamations during his address to the UN General Assembly. In fact, he was outwardly far milder than one might have imagined. By comparison, Obama’s emotional speech, which was replete with strident but unsubstantiated claims, seemed sad, and occasionally even comical. For example, there was a passage about the ouster of Assad, but then less than a day later the US position flip-flopped …

After the speeches, Putin and Obama sat down for a nearly two-hour conversation, after which the US president could not even rouse himself sufficiently to emerge to speak to journalists. The Russian president conducted an exhaustive press conference on his own.

What is the takeaway from those last three days in September, which, according to many observers, lay to rest the idea of a unipolar world?

First of all, the US is making profound changes in its attitude to Poroshenko’s regime in Ukraine, assembling a reserve set of “politicians” and revoking its green light for military action. Incumbent PM Yatsenyuk is more likely to be replaced by Sergey Lyovochkin, former head of ex-president Yanukovych’ administration and memner of “Opposition Bloc”. Given the pacification of Kiev and the Southeast in accordance with the Kremlin’s terms, the US withdrawal from Ukraine – and the withdrawal of Ukraine itself into the shadow of the world’s agenda – the US wager on the “Opposition Bloc” makes perfect sense.

The very next day in Minsk, Aleksandr Zakharchenko and Leonid Kuchma confirmed that weapons of a caliber less than 100 mm. would be pulled back 15 km. behind the front line, which actually signifies an end to the hostilities. For the preceding seven months no one had been able to reach an agreement on this point. At the same time, Kiev admitted that it had committed war crimes in the Donbass: several stories on this topic appeared over the course of a single day in the Ukrainian media, from the admission that Oles Buzina had been killed by commandos from a special forces unit of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, to an acknowledgment of crimes committed by “territorial” battalions. Obviously this would not have happened without an order from the American embassy. To this must be added the resignation of Evelyn Farkas, the Pentagon’s top official overseeing military relations with Russia and Ukraine. Ms. Farkas had held that position for five years. She will officially leave her post in late October. It should be noted that this senior official had insisted on retaliatory measures against Russia’s policy in Ukraine and had also facilitated the provision of financial aid to Kiev.

And all this occurred less than a day after Vladimir Putin’s speech in New York and his meeting with Obama. That means that all these events were the result of a deal. And in fact, these are only the first fruits. Clearly there is more to come. But the trend is clear – the US has acknowledged the legitimacy of Russian claims that Ukraine is within Russia’s sphere of interest.

Second, the situation in and around Syria changed dramatically over the course of one day. The US is no longer insisting on Assad’s resignation. The US is not opposing Russian military involvement in operations against ISIL and is prepared to enter into immediate negotiations with Russia about the formation of a united front against terrorists. Russia’s air force launched strikes on ISIL strongholds after Assad asked Moscow for military assistance, and the Federation Council approved the use of the Russian air force against the terrorists in Syria. That would have been inconceivable even on the morning of Sept. 28. But only a day and a half later this was the reality, which is evidence of the dramatic change in the entire global geopolitical picture.

Time magazine had written about this just the day before.

If Putin can get Obama to go along with his proposal as well, it would mark one of the greatest diplomatic triumphs of his 15 years in power.

This means Russia’s victory is now official. The only question is – victory over whom?

What I mean is – I would like to emphasize that this is not a victory over Obama, as many experts are simplistically trying to present it, but over a powerful supranational grouping, which uses the United States as a battering ram in order to plunge the world into a new Middle Ages. And this group’s reaction to the agreement between Putin and Obama quickly followed. Right out of the blue Hillary Clinton launched into a tirade of criticism against Obama. But she was not lambasting him over agreements with Russia on Syria and Ukraine, as one might have expected, but over a purely domestic issue – ObamaCare.

Leaving aside for the moment the content of his speech, which has already been picked over for quotes, let us try to answer the main question – why did Putin have to address the “international community” at all? Couldn’t he have just published an article in any international media outlet? The answer is very simple – for the same reason he had to help a flock of young Siberian cranes get to where they needed to go. The content of Putin’s New York speech takes a distant second to the psychological component of his message to the leaders of the world community and the global decision-makers in the West. Time will reveal the significance of that. But, looking at how the global picture evolved between Sept. 29 and 30, we can see that Putin really got through to the intended audience for his statements. And he was more than just heard – specific agreements have now been reached with Moscow regarding the first steps for getting out of the quagmire into which the backstage elites have led the world.
 
Laura said:
In this article, Mike Whitney speculates about the reasons that Putin acted at this moment:

http://www.sott.net/article/303093-Putins-blitz-against-ISIS-in-Syria-leaves-Washington-rankled-and-confused

Yes, at least I think he did, which is why I think we are at the beginning of Phase 2 of the US aggression against Syria. Incirlik changes everything. US bombers, drones and fighters can enter Syrian airspace in just 15 minutes instead of 3 to 4 hours from Bahrain. That means more sorties, more surveillance drones, and more air-cover for US-backed militias and Special Forces on the ground. It means the US can impose a de facto no-fly zone over most of Syria that will expose and weaken Syrian forces tipping the odds decisively in favor of Obama's jihadi army. Incirlik is a game-changer, the cornerstone of US policy in Syria. With access to Incirlik, victory is within Washington's reach. That's how important Incirlik is.

I think he's missing an important point that would render his scenario impossible; it's very likely that Russia has delivered s-300 anti-aircraft systems to Syria. This may well be reason that there has been so little Western military action over Syria. 1) they're not interested in bombing ISIS, they want to bomb the Syrian army, but 2) they're not willing to risk being shot down by s-300. This would also explain the confidence, and dare I say swagger, with which the Russians began their airstrikes, virtually ordering US and NATO planes to leave the area.
 
I really think America is done in the middle east, they had their 14 year war it will be interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks, looks like we might be seeing an empire falling, I for one am a happy man.
 
Debka says :

Chinese warplanes to join Russian air strikes in Syria. Russia gains Iraqi air base

_http://web.debka.com/article/24926/Chinese-warplanes-to-join-Russian-air-strikes-in-Syria-Russia-gains-Iraqi-air-base

Given that this comes from the proverbial anonymous 'military and intelligence sources', I would take it with a grain of salt, but in case there is some truth to it, here it is.

Russia’s military intervention in Syria has expanded radically in two directions. debkafile’s military and intelligence sources report that China sent word to Moscow Friday, Oct. 2, that J-15 fighter bombers would shortly join the Russian air campaign that was launched Wednesday, Sept. 30. Baghdad has moreover offered Moscow an air base for targeting the Islamic State now occupying large swathes of Iraqi territory
Russia’s military intervention in Syria has five additional participants: China, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hizballah.

The J-15 warplanes will take off from the Chinese Liaoning-CV-16 aircraft carrier, which reached Syrian shores on Sept. 26 (as debkafile exclusively reported at the time). This will be a landmark event for Beijing: its first military operation in the Middle East as well the carrier’s first taste of action in conditions of real combat.

Thursday night, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi, made this comment on the Syrian crisis at a UN Security Council session in New York: “The world cannot afford to stand by and look on with folded arms, but must also not arbitrarily interfere (in the crisis).”

A no less significant development occurred at about the same time when Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, speaking to the US PBS NewsHour, said he would welcome a deployment of Russian troops to Iraq to fight ISIS forces in his country too. As an added incentive, he noted that this would also give Moscow the chance to deal with the 2,500 Chechen Muslims whom, he said, are fighting with ISIS in Iraq.

Here is Abadi's interview with PBS:

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/prime-minister-abadi-iraq-welcomes-russia-islamic-state-fight/

DEBKA continues:

debkafile’s military sources add that Al-Abadi’s words came against the backdrop of two events closely related to Russia’s expanding role in the war arena:

1. A joint Russian-Iranian-Syrian-Iraqi war room has been working since last week out of the Iraqi Defense Ministry and military staff headquarters in Baghdad to coordinate the passage of Russian and Iranian airlifts to Syria and also Russian air raids. This command center is also organizing the transfer of Iranian and pro-Iranian Shiite forces into Syria.

2. Baghdad and Moscow have just concluded a deal for the Russian air force to start using the Al Taqaddum Air Base at Habbaniyah, 74 km west of Baghdad, both as a way station for the Russian air corridor to Syria and as a launching-pad for bombing missions against ISIS forces and infrastructure in northern Iraq and northern Syria.

Russia has thus gained a military enclave in Iraq, just as it has in Syria, where it has taken over a base outside Latakia on the western coast of Syria. At the same time, the Habbaniyah air base also serves US forces operating in Iraq, which number an estimated 5,000.
 
Seaniebawn said:
I really think America is done in the middle east, they had their 14 year war it will be interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks, looks like we might be seeing an empire falling, I for one am a happy man.
A

Thanks Seaniebawn:

Yes there seems to be a fresh breeze blowing in our World. A few beams of light in the darkness. I feel Hope for the first time in ever so long.

Mac
 
Oh Putin's response is awesome!
When you listen to him speak and then watch the US senators and delegats they look like total chumps, unfortunately chumps "elbow deep in blood" (VP)
 
Seaniebawn said:
Pashalis said:
McCain has a brilliant idea:

US Senator John McCain: Arm Syrian Rebels to shoot down Russian planes!

Just unbelievable.

Did you see Putin's response priceless. :rotfl:


McCain is about as close to a real vampire for sure, but his argument here is probably the only viable option left to the "Russia must be destroyed so we can continue to rule the world" crowd in Washington. Giving MANPADs to "Syrian rebels" is about the only way that the US can do anything to counter Russia's check mate in Syria.
 
He may have succeeded in making the US look stupid, but he hasn't 'defanged' the Beast. It's still a very dangerous situation, especially with the US's resources.
 
Perceval said:
Seaniebawn said:
Pashalis said:
McCain has a brilliant idea:

US Senator John McCain: Arm Syrian Rebels to shoot down Russian planes!

Just unbelievable.

Did you see Putin's response priceless. :rotfl:


McCain is about as close to a real vampire for sure, but his argument here is probably the only viable option left to the "Russia must be destroyed so we can continue to rule the world" crowd in Washington. Giving MANPADs to "Syrian rebels" is about the only way that the US can do anything to counter Russia's check mate in Syria.

Well when you strip away all the propaganda, Russia is de facto at war with America, check mate indeed, so where does that leave them, are they willing to set fire to the middle east I wouldn't put it past them, this is going to be interesting.
 
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