Russia Begins Operations in Syria: End Game for the US Empire?

[seek10]

This is from Foreign Policy this morning. Made me laugh. As if CIA isn't in any way involved with ISIS. Note 'urgent talks' at the end.

'Though Russia claimed yesterday its airstrikes targeted the Islamic State, Syrian rebel groups told reporters that the strikes hit other groups, including some rebels believed to have participated in a CIA-supported training program. U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter noted that the strikes, which occurred in western Syria, were in locations “where there probably were not ISIL forces.” The U.S. representative of the Syrian National Coalition denounced the strikes, saying, “The Russian claim that they are there to fight ISIS is a baseless claim, and that was proven today. They are there to uphold a regime that lost its legitimacy and only controls 14 percent of the land in Syria.”

What - all five of them?

It made my day

 

[Nicholas]

There are only four or five American-trained Syrian rebels currently fighting against the Islamic State, the top general leading the effort to build a force to counter the militant group in Syria said Wednesday.

The tiny number of fighters are part of the New Syrian Force, the byproduct of a $500-million-dollar train and equip program that was launched officially in December to train moderate Syrians to fight the Islamic State.

Not counting equipment that equates to 100+ million dollars per fighter.

30 years ago Hollywood fiction came up with a 6 billion dollar man, today Us Army comes up with a 100 million dollar fighter... It's crisis time, budgets are obviously shrinking

Good point, but it was the $6 Million Dollar Man. So the government has far exceeded that price!

 

[stellar]

There are only four or five American-trained Syrian rebels currently fighting against the Islamic State, the top general leading the effort to build a force to counter the militant group in Syria said Wednesday.

The tiny number of fighters are part of the New Syrian Force, the byproduct of a $500-million-dollar train and equip program that was launched officially in December to train moderate Syrians to fight the Islamic State.

Not counting equipment that equates to 100+ million dollars per fighter.

30 years ago Hollywood fiction came up with a 6 billion dollar man, today Us Army comes up with a 100 million dollar fighter... It's crisis time, budgets are obviously shrinking

Good point, but it was the $6 Million Dollar Man. So the government has far exceeded that price!

wow, that really puts inflation into context for usa ;)

 

[Laura]

In this article, Mike Whitney speculates about the reasons that Putin acted at this moment:

http://www.sott.net/article/303093-Putins-blitz-against-ISIS-in-Syria-leaves-Washington-rankled-and-confused

On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a blistering critique of US foreign policy to the UN General Assembly.

On Tuesday, Barack Obama shoved a knife in Putin's back. This is from Reuters:

"France will discuss with its partners in the coming days a proposal by Turkey and members of the Syrian opposition for a no-fly zone in northern Syria, French President Francois Hollande said on Monday...

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius "in the coming days will look at what the demarcation would be, how this zone could be secured and what our partners think," Hollande told reporters on the sidelines of the annual United Nations General Assembly...

Hollande said such a proposal could eventually be rubber-stamped with a U.N. Security Council resolution that "would give international legitimacy to what's happening in this zone."...(France, partners to discuss northern Syria 'safe zone': Hollande, Reuters)

Hollande is a liar and a puppet. He knows the Security Council will never approve a no-fly zone. Russia and China have already said so. And they've explained why they are opposed to it, too. It's because they don't want another failed state on their hands like Libya, which is what happened last time the US and NATO imposed a no-fly zone.

But that's beside the point. The real reason the no-fly zone issue has resurfaced is because it was one of the concessions Obama made to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the use of Incirlik airbase. Washington has kept the terms of that deal secret, but Hollande has let the cat out of the bag.

So who put sock-puppet Hollande up to this no-fly zone nonsense?

Why the Obama administration, of course. Does anyone seriously believe that Hollande is conducting his own independent policy in Syria? Of course not. Hollande is just doing what he's been told to do, just like he did when he was told to scotch the Mistral deal that cost France a whopping $1.2 billion. Washington and NATO didn't like the idea that France was selling state-of-the-art helicopter carriers to arch-rival Putin, so they ordered Hollande to put the kibosh on the deal. Which he did, because that's what puppets do; they obey their masters. Now he's providing cover for Obama so the real details of the Incirlik agreement remain off the public's radar. That's why we say, Obama shoved a knife in Putin's back, because, ultimately, the no-fly zone damages Russia's interests in Syria.

The significance of the Reuters article cannot be overstated. It suggests that there was a quid pro quo for the use of Incirlik, and that Turkey's demands were accepted. Why is that important?

Because Turkey had three demands:

1 - Safe zones in north Syria (which means that Turkey would basically annex a good portion of Syrian sovereign territory.)
2 - A no-fly zone (which would allow either Turkish troops, US Special Forces or US-backed jihadi militants to conduct their military operations with the support of US air cover.)
3 - A commitment from the US that it will help Turkey remove Assad.

Did Obama agree to all three of these demands before Erdogan agreed to let the USAF use Incirlik?

Yes, at least I think he did, which is why I think we are at the beginning of Phase 2 of the US aggression against Syria. Incirlik changes everything. US bombers, drones and fighters can enter Syrian airspace in just 15 minutes instead of 3 to 4 hours from Bahrain. That means more sorties, more surveillance drones, and more air-cover for US-backed militias and Special Forces on the ground. It means the US can impose a de facto no-fly zone over most of Syria that will expose and weaken Syrian forces tipping the odds decisively in favor of Obama's jihadi army. Incirlik is a game-changer, the cornerstone of US policy in Syria. With access to Incirlik, victory is within Washington's reach. That's how important Incirlik is.

And that's why the normally-cautious Putin decided to deploy his warplanes, troops and weaponry so soon after the Incirlik deal was signed. He could see the handwriting on the wall. He knew he had to either act fast and turn the tide or accept the fact that the US and Turkey were going to topple Assad sometime after Turkey's snap elections on November 1. That was his timeline for action. So he did the right thing and joined the fighting.

But what does Putin do now?

On Wednesday, just two days after Putin announced to the UN General Assembly: "We can no longer tolerate the current state of affairs in the world," Putin ordered the bombing of targets in Homs, an ISIS stronghold in West Syria. The attacks, which were unanimously approved by the Russian parliament earlier in the day, and which are entirely legal under international law (Putin was invited by Syria's sitting president, Assad, to carry out the airstrikes), have put US policy in a tailspin. While the Russian military is maintaining an open channel to the Pentagon and reporting when-and-where it is carrying out its airstrikes, U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby said that the US plans to "continue to fly missions over Iraq and Syria" increasing the possibility of an unintended clash that could lead to a confrontation between the US and Russia.

Is that what Washington wants, a violent incident that pits one nuclear-armed adversary against the other?

Let's consider one probable scenario: Let's say an F-16 is shot down over Syria while providing air cover for Obama's militants on the ground. Now that Russia is conducting air raids over Syria, there's a good chance that Putin would be blamed for the incident like he was when the Malaysian airliner was downed over East Ukraine.

So what happens next?

Judging by similar incidents in the past, the media would swing into full-propaganda mode exhorting the administration to launch retaliatory attacks on Russian military sites while calling for a broader US-NATO mobilization. That, in turn, would force Putin to either fight back and up-the-ante or back-down and face disgrace. Either way, Putin loses and the US gets one step closer to its objective of toppling Bashar al Assad.

Putin knows all this. He understands the risks of military involvement which is why he has only reluctantly committed to the present campaign. That said; we should expect him to act in much the same way as he did when Georgian troops invaded South Ossetia in 2007. Putin immediately deployed the tanks to push the invading troops back over the border into Georgia and then quickly ended the hostilities. He was lambasted by critics on the right for not invading Georgia and removing their leader, Mikheil Saakashvili, in the Capital. But as it turned out, Putin's restraint spared Russia the unnecessary hardship of occupation which can drain resources and erode public support. Putin was right and his critics were wrong.

Will his actions in Syria mirror those in South Ossetia?

It's hard to say, but it's clear that the Obama crew is thunderstruck by the speed of the intervention. Check this out from the UK Guardian:

"Back at the White House, spokesperson Josh Earnest suggests that Vladimir Putin did not give Barack Obama warning about his intentions to begin air strikes in Syria.

"We have long said we would welcome constructive Russian coordination," Earnest says, before qualifying that the talks between US and Russian militaries will be purely tactical: "to ensure that our military activities and the military activities of coalition partners would be safely conducted." (The Guardian)

What does Earnest's statement mean? It means the entire US political class was caught off-guard by Putin's blitz and has not yet settled on an appropriate response. They know that Putin is undoing years of work by rolling up proxy-units that were supposed to achieve US objectives, but there is no agreement among ruling elites about what should be done. And making a decision of that magnitude could take time, which means that Putin should be able to obliterate a fair number of the terrorist hideouts and restore control of large parts of the country to Assad before the US ever agrees to a strategy. In fact, if he moves fast, he might even be able to force the US and their Gulf allies to the bargaining table where a political solution could be reached.

It's a long-shot, but it's a much better option then waiting around for the US to impose a no-fly zone that would collapse the central government and reduce Syria to Libya-type anarchy. There's no future in that at all.

 

[Mr.Cyan]

From RT; video of the Latakia airbase, and warplanes used for the counter-attacks on ISIS, there is also a short interview with a Russian Ministry of Defence spokesperson Igor Klimov :

RT EXCLUSIVE: First look at Russian airbase in Latakia, centerpiece of anti-ISIS operations (VIDEO)
http://www.rt.com/news/317335-rt-exclusive-latakia-airbase/

 

[wattsup]

Sorry if you interpret it as "noise" but, I could not resist.

 

[SeekinTruth]

While the timing of the military action from Russia (and China may be getting involved too) may seem sudden, I think the diplomatic steps were being taken for months, and the logistics, planning, etc. too. The whole thing is very similar to the way they outmaneuvered the Empire in Crimea. They had the intelligence that the overwhelming majority of Crimeans would want what came about and just moved and made it happen.

Same thing with Syria - the vast majority are behind Assad's government and that's why they've survived. The military moves come after much other work to make it a success. With Iran and Iraq on board now to take out the hired thugs and nut jobs in Syria and Iraq, the Anglo-Zionist Empire is outmaneuvered once again.... fait accompli.

I think this is an important aspect. As for the pre-planning, obviously this is true, but I also got the impression that the Russian team deliberately created a lot of confusion about the issue. I guess the empire could see it coming, but couldn't figure out when and how. And maybe their wishful thinking prevented them from seeing clearly - after Crimea, they should know better. But then again, as the C's said, wishful thinking is the Achilles' heel of STS...

I've been getting the feeling that the Russians deliberately sow confusion and lull the Empire stooges to sleep when they're planning a big move too. In fact, the Soviets were known for deliberately faking out their enemies by confusing them with what's going on, so the Russian Federation probably continues that tradition.

 

[stellar]

I guess this may be what the C's were referring to when they said Putin was working hard behind the scenes. I can't wait to see what China does to shock them even more... and then the cosmic possibilities.....Really interesting times now!

 

[Laura]

While the timing of the military action from Russia (and China may be getting involved too) may seem sudden, I think the diplomatic steps were being taken for months, and the logistics, planning, etc. too. The whole thing is very similar to the way they outmaneuvered the Empire in Crimea. They had the intelligence that the overwhelming majority of Crimeans would want what came about and just moved and made it happen.

Same thing with Syria - the vast majority are behind Assad's government and that's why they've survived. The military moves come after much other work to make it a success. With Iran and Iraq on board now to take out the hired thugs and nut jobs in Syria and Iraq, the Anglo-Zionist Empire is outmaneuvered once again.... fait accompli.

I think this is an important aspect. As for the pre-planning, obviously this is true, but I also got the impression that the Russian team deliberately created a lot of confusion about the issue. I guess the empire could see it coming, but couldn't figure out when and how. And maybe their wishful thinking prevented them from seeing clearly - after Crimea, they should know better. But then again, as the C's said, wishful thinking is the Achilles' heel of STS...

I've been getting the feeling that the Russians deliberately sow confusion and lull the Empire stooges to sleep when they're planning a big move too. In fact, the Soviets were known for deliberately faking out their enemies by confusing them with what's going on, so the Russian Federation probably continues that tradition.

Actually, the Russians are quite honest about their reactions to thing, give clear warnings to anyone who can take a hint, and tell the truth a LOT. But that is difficult to parse by psychopathic minds that are always looking for the double-cross or taking the pejorative view.

They tell the truth, just not TOO much, and keep their cards close to their chest.

 

[SeekinTruth]

Sure, they tell the truth and try to talk sense to the bullies. But when it comes to what they will do when, and how, they DO keep their cards close to their chest AND let everyone think that they aren't going to do anything "drastic" that would upset the current status quo (drastic from the point of view of the criminal cabal) - and then they make a move that should have been seen coming, but because of the wishful thinking and projections, they don't see it coming at all. Crimea and now Syria, and probably Iraq soon.

 

[luc]

Sure, they tell the truth and try to talk sense to the bullies. But when it comes to what they will do when, and how, they DO keep their cards close to their chest AND let everyone think that they aren't going to do anything "drastic" that would upset the current status quo (drastic from the point of view of the criminal cabal) - and then they make a move that should have been seen coming, but because of the wishful thinking and projections, they don't see it coming at all. Crimea and now Syria, and probably Iraq soon.

To put it another way - I think Putin is very truthful and honest about his general approach, goals and plans, such as his concern for the people in general and the Russians in particular, his opposition of corruption and evilness, his willingness to protect people, make realistic plans, act based on mutual respect, and most importantly his willingness to stick to his words and act upon them... And it is THIS that the psychopaths just cannot grasp EVER, since in their world, such an approach just doesn't exist - so this alone probably skews their assessment. Add wishful thinking to the mix, as in fantasies of omnipotence, thinking they will get everything without effort anyway, that they are so great that they "deserve" to win all the time and therefore will never fail etc., and it becomes more clear what the C's meant with their remark on the Achilles Heel, osit.

 

[Sol Logos]

Putin on who created ISIS (translated)

http://<iframe width="560" height="...dI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Cosmos]

Okay then, thanks for the encouragement, I will start with the German article. How does this work - I just send it to you guys by E-Mail? Thank you!

You can send it to sott_de(@)sott.net

It is up on german SOTT:

http://de.sott.net/article/19451-Putins-Strategie-geht-auf-FAZ-schiet-sich-ein-dickes-Eigentor

Great article Luc! You are very talented in writing: Kudos!

Would you like to join us on german SOTT?

 

[Niall]

But they do continue with their games, as they claim that "Iran, Hezbollah to launch major offensive in Syria".

I think Hizb'allah are very likely to be involved in Syria already, particularly in the area inland to Syria from the Lebanese border. Hizb'allah are probably very concerned about the likely intention of the Israelis and Saudis using the "jihadis" to bring the war to Lebanon, so like Russia, they've been "fighting them there so as not to have to fight them here".

I think Hizb'allah have been involved in Syria for some time:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_Civil_War

In fact, it appears that they were withdrawn from engagements with ISIS just prior to the commencement of Russia's intervention:

http://gulfnews.com/news/mena/syria/hezbollah-confirms-6-month-truce-deal-for-three-syria-towns-1.1590295

I was wondering out loud if Kadryov's Chechen Spetsnaz battalions would enter the fray when this popped in my news feed:

Kadyrov asks Putin to allow Chechen infantry to fight in Syria
http://www.rt.com/politics/317393-this-will-be-holiday-kadyrov/

“This is not idle talk, I am asking for permission to go there and participate in special operations,” Ramzan Kadyrov said in the Friday interview with the RSN radio. “Being a Muslim, a Chechen and a Russian patriot I want to say that in 1999 when our republic was overrun with these devils we swore on the Koran that we would fight them wherever they are,” the Chechen leader said.

“But we need the Commander-in-Chief’s decision to do this,” he emphasized.

“We know them because we have destroyed them here, we have fought them. And they also know us,” the Chechen leader said.

 

[Laura]

The whole situation is developing so rapidly, I can hardly keep away from the news feeds and sott! Gads, I've become practically a news junkie!