Russia Begins Operations in Syria: End Game for the US Empire?

mabar said:
Reports of massive explosions in Tartous, Syria after Zionist aggression. The blast was so big, it triggered an earthquake alert of 3.0 on the Richter scale.
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Yes, it smashed impressively there.
The most powerful explosion in Syria: Israel destroyed the largest stocks of tactical missiles "Tochka" and "Tochka-U"
The Israeli Air Force launched a precision strike on military depots in Tartus, which led to the detonation of ammunition of the Syrian army. According to preliminary data, arsenals of Tochka-U operational and tactical ballistic missiles, as well as 300-mm 9M55F/K correctable rockets for Smerch MLRS, turned out to be among the targets hit.

A powerful explosion of ammunition caused seismic activity, which local services recorded as an earthquake with a magnitude of about 3 points. Videos taken by eyewitnesses show a huge fireball and large-scale destruction caused by detonation.

The F-16I "Sufa", an Israeli multirole fighter, is widely used for such precision attacks. These aircraft are equipped with modern guidance systems and are capable of striking protected targets with minimal risk to pilots.

The target of the strike was probably weapons depots that could be used by Syrian troops or their allies in potential operations. Tochka-U and Smerch ammunition are known for their high destructive power, and their destruction is a significant tactical success for Israel in its campaign to weaken Syria's military potential.

Experts note that the use of weapons depots in Tartus has made this facility a key target. Its destruction not only weakens Syria, but also strikes at the logistics of its allies, including Iran, which actively supplies weapons through such warehouses.

Detonation of ammunition of this scale poses a significant threat to the surrounding areas. The impact of the blast wave, emissions of hazardous substances and seismic activity can worsen the humanitarian situation in the region.

Israel continues to conduct such operations, emphasizing its determination to counter the military presence of Iran and its allies in Syria. Tel Aviv does not officially confirm its actions, but regularly declares the right to protect its national security.
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Мощнейший взрыв в Сирии: Израиль уничтожил крупнейшие запасы тактических ракет "Точка" и "Точка-У"

In my opinion, there is a fairly transparent prospect of starting a new civil war or continuing the old one, unfinished against the background of such a large number of completely divergent forces, both inside Syria and outside.
Civil war may break out in Syria in the coming weeks
Syria is facing a new threat of civil war after the overthrow of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the American newspaper The Washington Post reports. A confrontation may unfold between pro-Turkish formations, which are part of the coalition of military groups that came to power, and Kurdish forces supported by the United States.

According to the newspaper, the Kurds in northeastern Syria may try to declare independence, which will inevitably cause a harsh reaction from the new authorities in Damascus. It also threatens to draw Turkey even deeper into the Syrian conflict and put the American military deployed in the region at risk.

Pro-Turkish groups, which play an important role in the new Syrian government, are likely to launch an offensive on Kurdish territories. The Kurdish forces may be forced to retreat, which will pose a threat to the US presence in Syria, The Washington Post notes.

Experts also point to the continuing risk of a split in the Syrian opposition. Different groups, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and pro-Turkish forces, have different interests and may enter into a struggle for influence, which destabilizes the situation.

The continued interference of external actors — Israel, Turkey and the United States — exacerbates the situation. Turkey has long actively opposed the Kurdish forces, which it considers a threat to its national security. Israel, in turn, regularly strikes targets associated with Iran and its allies, and the United States continues to support the Kurds, which creates additional points of tension.

The Washington Post emphasizes that the current instability can lead to a protracted conflict. Internal disagreements among the Syrian opposition forces and the intervention of external powers create the prerequisites for a repeat of the chaos that accompanied the early years of the civil war.

In this context, the Kurdish forces are in the most vulnerable position. Their desire for autonomy or independence will inevitably face opposition from the new Syrian authorities, which may force the United States to reconsider its military presence in the region.
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В Сирии в ближайшие недели может вспыхнуть гражданская война

Да, бабахнуло там впечатляюще.
По моему, вырисовывается довольно прозрачная перспектива начала новой гражданской войны или продолжения прежней, неоконченной на фоне такого большого количества совершенно разноноправленных сил, как внутри Сирии, так и снаружи.
 
Bashar al-Assad remained in Damascus until the morning of December 8, and in Syria until the evening of the same day, according to his first statement after his resignation. Assad said that he left the country when it became clear that "the army's positions had fallen" - Асад раскрыл, до какого срока оставался в Сирии

"I remained in Damascus, fulfilling my duties until the early morning of Sunday, December 8, 2024," the office quoted him as saying. According to Assad, he moved to Latakia "when terrorist forces penetrated Damascus." He went to Latakia "to coordinate with our Russian allies to monitor combat operations."

When Assad arrived at the base in Latakia, "it became clear that our forces had completely withdrawn from all combat positions and that the last positions of the army had fallen," and "the situation continued to deteriorate." The former Syrian president emphasized that Moscow then offered to organize an immediate evacuation to Russia. "This happened the day after the fall of Damascus, after the fall of the last military positions and, as a result, the paralysis of all remaining state institutions," Assad added. At the same time, the former president added that during these events, "I never thought about resigning or seeking asylum."
 
N1mTzo said:
Bashar al-Assad remained in Damascus until the morning of December 8, and in Syria until the evening of the same day, according to his first statement after his resignation. Assad said that he left the country when it became clear that "the army's positions had fallen" - Асад раскрыл, до какого срока оставался в Сирии
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While there's always the possibility that Assad is running cover for some larger plan - not to mention his now tarnished reputation - his statement strikes me as sincere and truthful. So what I mentioned earlier (of him just tiring of the fight) would seem to be incorrect. According to the below full statement, he and his forces (and Russia too it seems) were outfought and overrun at a most crucial time and Assad was more or less compelled by an unwinnable situation to make a quick exit.

As for his wife being in Russia weeks earlier, its likely that she was there without him.

sputnikglobe.com

Assad Issues First Statement Following Evacuation From Syria

Toppled Syria President Bashar Assad said that his evacuation to Russia was preceded by a collapse of the army and a paralysis of state institutions, Assad's office said on Monday.
sputnikglobe.com sputnikglobe.com

'With the expansion of terrorism in Syria, and its arrival in the capital Damascus on the evening of Saturday, December 7, 2024, questions began to be raised about the fate and location of the president, amidst a torrent of confusion and stories far from the truth, which constituted support for the process of installing international terrorism concealed as a Syrian liberation revolution.

At a critical historical moment in the life of the nation, when truth should have a place, there is something that needs to be clarified through a brief statement. These circumstances and the subsequent complete cessation of communication for security reasons did not allow for it to be made, and its brief points do not replace the narration of the details of everything that happened later, when the opportunity arises.

First of all, I did not leave the country in a planned manner as was rumored, nor did I leave it during the last hours of the battles, but rather I remained in Damascus following up on my responsibilities until the early morning hours of Sunday, December 8, 2024. With the expansion of terrorism inside Damascus, I moved in coordination with my Russian friends to Latakia to follow up on the combat operations from there. Upon arriving at the Hmeimim base in the morning, it became clear that the forces had withdrawn from all the battle lines and that the last army positions had fallen, with the deterioration of the field situation in that area increasing, and the attack on the Russian military base itself being escalated by drones. In light of the impossibility of leaving the base in any direction, Moscow asked the base leadership to work on securing immediate evacuation to Russia on the evening of Sunday, December 8, the day after the fall of Damascus, and after the fall of the last military positions and the subsequent paralysis of the rest of the state institutions.

During those events, the issue of asylum or resignation was not raised by me or by any person or party, and the only option presented was to continue fighting in defense of the terrorist attack.

In this context, I emphasize that whoever, since the first day of the war, refused to trade his country's salvation for personal salvation, or to bargain with his people with various offers and temptations, is the same person who stood with the officers and soldiers of his army on the front lines, dozens of meters away from the terrorists in the hottest and most dangerous hotbeds of conflict, and is the same person who did not leave during the most difficult years of the war and remained with his family and people to face terrorism under bombardment and the danger of terrorists storming the capital more than once during fourteen years of war. And whoever did not abandon the non-Syrian resistance in Palestine and Lebanon, and did not betray his allies who stood with him, cannot be the same person who abandons his people to whom he belongs, or betrays them and his army.

I have never been a person who seeks positions on a personal level, but rather I considered myself the owner of a national project that derived its support from a people who believed in it. I carried the certainty of the will of that people and their ability to preserve their state and defend its institutions and choices until the last moment. With the fall of the state into the hands of terrorism, and the loss of the ability to provide anything, the position becomes empty and meaningless, and there is no meaning to remaining responsible in it. This does not mean in any way abandoning the authentic national affiliation to Syria and its people, a fixed affiliation that is not changed by position or circumstance, a affiliation filled with hope that Syria will return free and independent.'


https://twitter.com/x/status/1868641024773661147
 
N1mTzo said:
Bashar al-Assad remained in Damascus until the morning of December 8, and in Syria until the evening of the same day, according to his first statement after his resignation. Assad said that he left the country when it became clear that "the army's positions had fallen"
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Very curious then who issued the Army stand-down order.
 
Putin from today's direct line in Moscow:

Putin does not consider the current situation in Syria a defeat for Russia. According to him, Russia has already achieved its goals in Syria.
The issue of the bases is still in limbo. Everything will depend on negotiations with the new Syrian authorities.
The Khmeimim base may be used in the future to deliver humanitarian aid to Syria.

Aleppo was captured by 350 militants. 30,000 Syrian and pro-Iranian troops did not offer them the necessary resistance.
Russia helped evacuate 4,000 Iranian fighters from Syria.
 
The saying goes that if it left in one place, it must have arrived in another place. The Tuareg in Male and Sudan are unlikely to be happy about this turn of events.
Russia is transporting military equipment from Syria to Libya, Mali and Sudan.
Moscow is reducing its military presence in Syria and deploying military equipment to Libya, Mali and Sudan, as confirmed by satellite imagery and flight data. This decision is due to the loss of control over the Syrian bases and an attempt to strengthen its influence on the African continent. Such data is provided by the NZIV publication.

Russia began withdrawing military equipment from Syria after the removal of President Bashar al-Assad on December 8. The loss of the bases in Khmeimim and Tartus, which allowed Moscow to project power in the region, will become a serious problem. In response, Russia has stepped up its efforts in Africa, increasing its presence in Libya, Mali and Sudan.

According to experts, the transfer of significant amounts of military equipment is associated with logistical difficulties and high costs. Roland Marshal of the Institute for Political Studies in Paris noted that operations of this scale require significant financial investments, including paying for cargo transportation and ensuring flights through the airspace of, for example, Turkey, which is a regional rival of Russia. However, despite these difficulties, Moscow continues to increase its presence in Africa.

An analysis of flight data indicates an increase in traffic between Russia and Libya. Although the purpose of these shipments remains unclear, experts attribute them to Moscow's attempt to increase its influence on African regions.

The Russian authorities say they are continuing negotiations with the new Syrian government on the future of the bases in Khmeimim and Tartus. However, the large-scale transportation of equipment indicates the likelihood of a complete withdrawal from Syria. If this happens, Russia will lose an important stronghold for control over the Middle East and Africa.
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Россия перевозит военную технику из Сирии в Ливию, Мали и Судан

Поговорка гласит, что если в одном месте убыло, то в другом месте обязательно прибыло. Туареги в Мали и в Судане вряд ли обрадовались такому повороту событий.
 
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