Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[mrtn]

During the last hour or so, I got neck tension suddenly and a slight headache. So I checked space weather again (did so in the morning already and the Geospace delta B model was strong but I didn't take it to serious yet).
It's KP 8 now and pretty intense, so if you're sensitive to this and feel a little weird, maybe that's why.
I think it's from the triple CME from around the 7th-9th of August. There is also lighting brewing over southern Europe.

 

[Ca.]

There is also lighting brewing over southern Europe.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1823082893393957321

Spectacular lightning show at this moment over the Chiemgau in Upper Bavaria!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1822913452987322619

https://twitter.com/x/status/1823077192802218051

The Logroño night lights up LIGHTNING over Logroño#tormentas #verano #LaRioja #rayos

https://twitter.com/x/status/1823072573334151537

Heavy this Tuesday with thunderstorms sometimes strong, continuing in the east on Wednesday. Variable after that.➡ 10-day weather forecast: https://meteo-express.com/previsions/pre

 

[Puma]

X-FLARE

A powerful X1.1 flare has erupted from sunspot region 3784 located on the northwest at 06:40 UTC The sunspot is rotating to the geoeffective zone. if it produces another big flare then Earth will be in a direct path of any CMEs. Meanwhile this flare caused a Strong R3 radio blackout over India.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1823615595234943102

 

[Pat]

mrtn said:
There is also lighting brewing over southern Europe.

Yes it reached southern Spain today! More rain is forcasted for tomorrow Thursday.

 

[Ca.]

X-FLARE

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

BIG FARSIDE SUNSPOTS: There are two sunspot groups on the farside of the sun so big they are affecting the way the whole sun vibrates. Helioseismic maps suggest that one of them will turn toward Earth this weekend. The appearance of another big sunspot group would help keep sunspot numbers elevated at their current 20-year high. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: As predicted, strangely-magnetized sunspot AR3784 (described below) erupted today, producing an X1.1-class solar flare. The explosion was directly facing Earth:

​

Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a deep shortwave radio blackout over India and the Middle East: map. Ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for 30+ minutes after the flare's peak (0640 UT).

Radio emissions and preliminary coronagraph images suggest that this explosion may have hurled a faint CME toward Earth. If so, a NASA model predicts it will strike Earth around 1200 UTC on Aug. 17th. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

A STRANGELY MAGNETIZED SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR3784 is breaking Hale's Law. According to that hundred-year-old rule, sunspots in the sun's northern hemisphere should be polarized like this:

. Instead, AR3784 is polarized like this:

. This magnetic map from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the 90-degree twist:

​

Violations of Hale's Law do happen from time to time. About 3% of all sunspots are "reversed polarity":

instead of

or vice versa. However, AR3784 is neither normal (

) nor reversed (

). It's halfway in between (

).

The magnetic underpinnings of this sunspot seem to be corkscrewing in an unusual way. If opposite magnetic polarities get twisted together too tightly, there could be an X-class solar flare. Stay tuned! Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

https://twitter.com/x/status/1823794526911389973

https://twitter.com/x/status/1823461737514889324

"A pretty fantastic electrical activity," Matthieu Brochier, director-videographer and storm chaser, gives his testimony from Ain.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1823792360716984339

Lightning strikes Belledonne tonight . More thunderstorms this Wednesday.
@KeraunosObs @lachainemeteo @MeteoExpress @ExtremeMeteo @ROMMA_asso @infoclimat @MeteoGrenoble38 @DocTF1 @ledauphine @MeteoIsere

 

[artofdream]

Well not sure if it is related but as of 16:30 CET Telenor Roaming Service Abroad (data traffic) is down.
I guess it may relate to:

| EarthSky

earthsky.org

Homepage | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

www.swpc.noaa.gov

Anyone else impacted?

 

[Ca.]

An Earth-Directed Solar Storm with New Regions Peeking | Space Weather Spotlight 15 August 2024

August 15, 2024

The activity keeps on coming! Just as we settle down from a G4-level solar storm, a new Earth-directed solar storm is launched. This one is moving much more slowly and wont pack as big a punch, but it still could give us some decent aurora views, especially at high latitudes. On top of that, we have some new regions rotating into Earth-view over the next few days that promise to be big-flare players and solar storm producers. This means amateur radio operators and GPS users will need to work a bit harder this week because there continues to be a lot of noise on the dayside radio bands. Learn the details of the coming solar storm, watch the complex new regions emerging on the Sun's farside, and see what else our star has in store.

Incoming

https://twitter.com/x/status/1824883931990094268

Anyone else impacted?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1824870590169469003

https://twitter.com/x/status/1824874423268335957

M 7.4 - 104 km ESE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia
Time 2024-08-17 21:10:27 (UTC+02:00)
Location 52.732°N 160.085°E
Depth 43.9 km

U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers

www.tsunami.gov

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/at00sidmlg/shakemap/intensity

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

Not really a sun's phenomenon, but still (video in this article):

"

Seven 'Suns' Appear in China's Sichuan Sky: Viral Video Shows Multiple Suns In Chengdu Skies, Stunning Phenomenon Due to Refraction and Dispersion of Light!​

Netizens who shared the breathtaking videos of the seven "suns" on social media said that the stunning phenomenon was a result of light refraction and scattering. It is said that the seven "suns" appeared in the sky in China on Monday, August 19.


"

 

[Ca.]

The current Solar Cycle 25 as of August 21, 2024

Solar Cycle Progression | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

www.swpc.noaa.gov

The current Jetstream tumbles over Europe, bringing cold, then hot the cold again over the next five days

https://twitter.com/x/status/1826246834991620369

Currently below normal, temperatures will warm up between Thursday and Saturday before dropping again on Sunday with the return of oceanic air.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1826016708370317598

An early cold front is predicted for much of the United States (repeated earlier).

Storm turns deadly in Utah, state's 1st lightning fatality since 2016
Updated Aug 21, 2024 7:24 AM MDT
Tragedy struck on Sunday when 24-year-old Skyler Granath was hit by lightning, the ninth lightning-related fatality so far in 2024.

Granath was fishing in Bear River, Utah, about 60 miles north of Salt Lake City, when a lightning bolt from a nearby thunderstorm struck with deadly consequences. It was the first lightning-related fatality in Utah since 2016.

According to the National Lightning Safety Council (NLSC), fishing is the most dangerous activity when thunder roars and is nearly four times deadlier than golf.

Three people were struck by lightning on Monday during a soccer practice at Glacier High School in northwestern Montana, including two athletes and a coach. All three were transported to a local hospital, with one of the athletes still in the ICU, according to Montana-based news station KPAX.

"June, July and August are the peak months for lightning activity across the United States and the peak months for outdoor summer activities. As a result, more than 70% of the lightning deaths occurred in the months of June, July and August, with Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays having slightly more deaths than other days of the week," the NLSC explained.

Lightning kills about 20 people across the U.S. every year, but so far in 2024, the number of lightning deaths has been less than half of that figure. As of Tuesday, Aug. 20, the NLSC has reported nine fatalities, lower than the 14 reported in 2023. Since 2006, 2021 was the least-deadliest year for lightning strikes with 11.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1826065309758800124

An upcoming cold front is expected to bring unseasonably chilly temperatures to the Lake Tahoe area this week. The forecast even has a chance of snow, a rather rare occurrence for August in the Sierra Nevada.

Tahoe’s highest elevations may see trace amounts of snow over the weekend. The National Weather Service’s forecast for Lake Tahoe’s west shore shows a 30% chance of precipitation starting Friday, with snow possible at elevations above 8,200 feet. The snow level is expected to drop to 8,000 feet Saturday morning before rising to 9,100 feet by Saturday evening. Only Tahoe’s highest peaks reach elevations that high, like Mount Tallac, which tops at 9,739 feet.

The lower elevations near the shoreline at Lake Tahoe are highly unlikely to see snow, with meteorologist Chris Johnston giving it no more than a 10% chance.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1826047102352511166

https://twitter.com/x/status/1825950443371102502

x.com
It's quite chilly this Wednesday morning, particularly in the northwest. The thermometer dropped to 4.8°C in Ploërdut in Morbihan!

 

[Ca.]

Perhaps the French Weather Watchers are beginning to wake up to the effects of our current Solar Cycle and the climate hysteria and fear-mongering by the likes of the advocates of the globe climate change doctrine. This is nothing more than rouge flag of things yet to come according to the recent sessions.

Also all world leaders will play their part but for many it will be a cover as means to keep from being unseated or elimanted by the Quorum and its allies.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1826581242650726592

The hot/cold conflict which will occur this weekend over Western Europe will be such that we will be close to cold records at 1500 m off the coast of Brittany while the situation will be the opposite towards the Baltic States.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1825692919191232553

https://twitter.com/x/status/1826666642979385599

(Puma) What is the probability of a mega-earthquake occurring in the next six months?

A: 48 percent.

Q: (L) So, a little less than half.

(Puma) In the session of January 21, 1995 the C's predicted a sequence of 13 earthquakes before an M9.6 earthquake in or near Tokyo. According to the VolcanoDiscovery database, 13 earthquakes M7+ have occurred since 2003 near Tokyo. Is this M9.6 earthquake still valid within the present timeline?

A: Yes.

Q: (Puma) If this M9.6 earthquake is still valid, would this be the earthquake that the Japanese authorities expect to occur in Nankai Trough?

A: Yes.

Q: (L) It's just not going to be within the next six months. [laughter] Is it possible it's going to be sooner?

A: Possible.

Q: (L) I guess anything is possible. Okay.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1826030234552119785

Dr. Scott McIntosh, VP of Space Operations from Lynker Space, provided an update on the sun's activity, discussing its magnetic cycle, the terminator event, and the current state of solar activity. Also discussed were the potential for a triple peak in the solar cycle, the complexities of the sun's interior, and the correlation between the far side of the sun and sloshing activity. Lastly, they explored the relationship between gravitational pull and the sunspot cycle, the need for further observations, and the challenges of modeling complex system. Source

 

[Ca.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1827222412905345061

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

A CME IS COMING: But it's not a big one. The CME was hurled toward Earth during the early hours of Aug. 23rd by a puny C6-class solar flare. A NASA model predicts it will arrive on Aug 26th (1800 UT). The impact could spark a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. CME impact alerts: SMS Text


A HIGH-LATITUDE SUNSPOT: New sunspot AR3800 is not particularly big or flare-y, but it is interesting for another reason: It has a high latitude. The sunspot is growing in the southern hemisphere 27 degrees below the sun's equator:

​

This may not sound particularly "high". On Earth, the 27th parallel (south) crosses places such as Namibia and Australia. These are not considered high latitudes. But for sunspots, which tend to cluster around the sun's equator, 27 degrees is high indeed.

The potential significance of this sunspot is what it tells us about Solar Cycle 25. High-latitude sunspots tend to appear early in the 11-year solar cycle, as shown in this plot from the Solar Terrestrial Center of Excellence:

As solar cycles unfold, sunspots start high, then descend toward the equator. The existance of AR3800 is an anecdotal sign that we're still in the early years of Solar Cycle 25. If so, strong solar activity is just getting started and may last through 2026-27. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text

https://twitter.com/x/status/1827282740791611615

 

[Ca.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1827721836592803842

CME IMPACT--BETTER LATE THAN NEVER: A CME expected to graze Earth's magnetic field on Aug. 26th arrived later than expected. It struck on Aug. 27th around 0800 UT. So far, the weak impact has not caused a geomagnetic storm, although minor storms are possible later today as Earth passes through the CME's magnetized wake. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

Another Starlink satellite suffers another failure in its orbital position under the current solar cycle as Jonathan McDowell goes into denial by explaining the event was a controlled reentry.

So this one lasted from 10 March 2021 till 27 Aug 2024. Is that normal?
x.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1828626950463869061

As seen in France

https://twitter.com/x/status/1828532316207013909

This Tuesday at 9:29 p.m., the debris of a satellite lit up the sky of France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Germany. More info

https://twitter.com/x/status/1828524006154150358

Many of you have observed the disintegration of a satellite in the sky this Tuesday evening around 9:30 p.m., here from Guebwiller in Alsace. It is not a meteorite. ( © LeJardin Ivory)

Screenshots as backup evidence

 

[Ca.]

Sun awakens with more back side activities

https://twitter.com/x/status/1830183320132407576

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

ANOTHER CME TARGETS VENUS: For the second time in days, the sun hurled a CME straight toward Venus on Aug. 31st. A NASA model predicts it will strike on Sept. 2nd. The impact will erode a small amount of Venus's atmosphere. There's still plenty left.
CME impact alerts: SMS Text

PLASMA FALLS ON THE SUN: Imagine a waterfall made of hot plasma falling from a precipice tall enough to swallow Earth five times. Here it is:​

Dutch photographer "Neo" captured this movie on August 28th. "For three days I've been watching these prominences around the edge of the active sun," he says. "The plasma did not stop falling for a moment."

Plasma falls have been seen on the sun many times before, yet researchers still don't fully understand them. One big mystery is how fast they fall. The sun's gravity is powerful, but not powerful enough to pull the plasma down so quickly through the thicket of solar magnetic fields.

Nuclear engineers would like to figure out how this happens, because it also happens on a smaller scale in fusion reactors, frustrating their efforts to sustain an energy-producing reaction. Studies of plasma falls on the sun could lead to practical breakthroughs here on Earth​

Solar Map​

Solar Activity​

2024-09-01

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours, with multiple C-class flares and two M-class flares detected.

The largest flare was an M3.8, peaking at 13:02 UTC on August 31, associated with NOAA AR 3806 (beta-gamma class). Another M1.4 flare, peaking at 07:57 UTC on September 1, originated from an active region behind the east limb (S20E86) that is currently rotating onto the visible side of the disk.

Low-level flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3799 (beta class), 3807 (beta-gamma class) and 3808 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity.

Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible, and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so in thenext 24 hours, with possible enhancements in case of increased solar activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It isexpected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Solar Wind​

URSIgram 2024-09-01

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor storm levels globally (NOAA Kp = 5-) between 15:00 and 18:00 UTC on August 31. Locally, only active conditions were observed (K-Dourbes = 4).

For the next 24 hours, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with a chance of isolated active periods due to the ongoing HSS influence. Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (from ACE and DSCOVR) reflected ongoing high-speed stream (HSS) influences.

The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength increased at the beginning of the period, reaching a maximum value of 14 nT before gradually decreasing to around 4 nT. The solar wind speed varied between 370 km/s and 430 km/s.

The southward component of the IMF (Bz) reached a minimum of -11 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually return to slow solar wind conditions over the next days.

Auckland, New Zealand

https://twitter.com/x/status/1829885373708927399

Melbourne

https://twitter.com/x/status/1830155516628099475

https://twitter.com/x/status/1829880786063147438

New weather alert after 14 killed by lightning strikes as storms lash Yemen

Weather chiefs in Yemen issued a new warning on Tuesday after 14 people were killed by lightning strikes in the northern province of Hajjah. Lightning killed three people during thunderstorms in Abbes, three in Kuhlan Affar and eight more in...

www.sott.net

 

[Ca.]

Update 01 September 2024: I updated the forecast to clean up a few missed errors and added a coronagraph movie of the big east limb eruption on August 28, since the event didnt show all that well in the SDO/AIA imagery. Also, the You Tube description and 5-Day Outlook graphics are now included. Note the discussion of the big M5.6-flare and the east limb solar storm launch from old Region 3786. We even have a weak radiation storm (below S1-level) building from this event. It looks like we may not get a few days respite after all!

Original Post 31 August 2024: The solar storms hitting Earth over the past week are finally calming down, but that doesn't mean the Sun has gone quiet. We have some new regions developing both on the Sun's farside and in Earth-view that we are watching closely. Right now, it looks like the Region 3807 is reasonably well-behaved, but there are four regions on the Sun's farside that are firing flares and launching solar storms. Along with solar storm producer Region 3806 that will be rotating through the Earth-strike zone in a few days, this could mean a lot more radio noise on the dayside bands, longer-lasting radio blackouts, and possibly more Earth-directed solar storms over the coming week. So enjoy the next 24-48 hours of reasonable calm. We will have a small pocket of fast solar wind buffeting Earth over the next couple of days, but that should only cause some mild aurora shows at high latitudes. That is, as long as the Sun doesn't throw something new at us. As always, I will include the 5-day outlooks here along with the You Tube description before I release the forecast to the public in about 12 hours.

Earthquakes around the world

Very strong earthquake in El Salvador ● M 6.1 - 60 km SSW of La Libertad, El Salvador 2024-08-28 21:57:56 (UTC) 12.998°N 89.562°W 33.9 km depth USGS earthquake alert

cassiopaea.org

https://twitter.com/x/status/1830404100053246455

https://twitter.com/x/status/1830468009690820761

https://twitter.com/x/status/1830380024064627115

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/home

 

[RAFL]

I'm nearly daily watching the SOHO Movie Theater and also reading the Space Weather Prediction Center dashboard (in addition to this thread ).
Here and there, the satellites have a kind of a small error in the images that they transmit. This happened today, and it looks like the sun sent us a smiley:



So let us smile back