Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUN 30

Solar activity remains stable. According to the most recent GOES satellite data, x-rays remain at B1 (quiet) levels and the probability of a C class flare is 25% while for M and X flares the probability is very low.

Geospace remains quiet and the maximum planetary index is predicted to be Kp=3 There is a slight possibility that a slow moving CME could disturb our magnetic field and in such a case we would have auroral activity as a result.

Only two regions remain in the solar disk AR3040 and AR3042 resulting in a decrease in the number of sunspots. AR3040 has increased its size to 60MH although it is still smaller than the earth. The region AR3036 located in the south is expected to return and will receive a new active region assignment. A large sunspot is approaching at the northeast limb and has already produced a C1 solar flare.


A coronal mass ejection (CME) erupting in a north-northwest (upper right) direction was observed around 3:24 UT (12:24 CST) on June 30. It was a partial halo CME that extended beyond the white line. Extreme ultraviolet observations show no change associated with the eruption, indicating that it originated in the hemisphere beyond the Sun. [Courtesy of SIDC/CACTus]

There are multiple filaments in both the northern and southern hemispheres, and prominences on the edge from northeast.

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 380.2 km/sec ( 14:53 UTC Jun 30)
▪︎density: 3.19 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 3.2% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 48 (SN 71 June 29)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=1 quiet

TODAY A POSSIBLE CME NEAR MISS: A slow-moving CME that left the sun on June 26th could pass close to Earth today. The near miss, if it occurs, could disturb our planet's magnetic field and spark high latitude auroras. Bright displays are unlikely, but the nearly New Moon will allow long photographic exposures to capture faint lights. SpaceWeather.com
 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
The Sun Fires a Direct Hit | Solar Storm Forecast 06.30.2022
TamithaSkov Jun 30, 2022
This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University: https://www.millersville.edu/swen Just as we are calming down from one solar storm, our Sun sends us another!

Although this solar storm is wispy and slow, it is rather large and could give us some decent aurora possibilities this week. NASA predictions indicate it should hit Earth around mid-day on July 1.

Aurora photographers at high-latitudes should get some decent views through the weekend. Mid-latitudes might be a bit more sporadic (if at all) due to the slowness and wispy nature of this solar storm. Solar flux has taken a hit this week, dropping back into the mid-90s for the first time in a few weeks.

Amateur radio operators will likely notice radio propagation worsening a bit.
Sadly, these conditions will continue easily over the July 4th holiday (in the USA) and possibly continue through next week as well before things improve.
One nice thing is that GPS reception conditions are improving, even at low latitudes due to the lower solar flux and low risk for radio blackouts. However, GPS users should stay vigilant once the solar storm hits, especially near dawn and dusk and anywhere near aurora.

Learn the details of the coming solar storm and see what else our Sun has in store! Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit: https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below.


Amateur radio astronomer based in Ohio. Radio bursts are my specialty.

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
The Sun Fires a Direct Hit | Solar Storm Forecast 06.30.2022
TamithaSkov Jun 30, 2022



Amateur radio astronomer based in Ohio. Radio bursts are my specialty.

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It seems that what they call solar storms (perhaps to get more views) are solar flares.

The geomagnetic conditions and current solar activity do not indicate a direct hit to the Earth and there is no such solar storm. At best, as the article says, we can expect to see auroras but not even a minor geomagnetic storm (G1)

Although this solar storm is wispy and slow, it is rather large and could give us some decent aurora possibilities this week. NASA predictions indicate it should hit Earth around mid-day on July 1.

Now, about solar storms

As can be seen in the X-ray data from the GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Network) primary satellite, the current value of solar flares is B (quiet) and in a forecast for the next 24 hours is a maximum of class C flares.(small) ...so no solar storm.

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Ocean

The Living Force
SUN DAMAGE

Wild solar flares are causing satellites to plummet back towards Earth and it’s getting worse, experts claim​


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THE Sun ejects solar flares on a fairly regular basis and they can play havoc with our tech.

Scientists are now concerned that recent wild solar activity is causing satellites to fall to Earth.

The Sun is at the start of its 11-year cycle and in a very active phase. That means we're currently seeing more frequent solar flares. Around every 11 years, the magnetic field on the Sun flips.

That means the north and south poles switch and this can cause the Sun to behave erratically before settling down. Once it settles, the magnetic field flips and the cycle begins again.
Solar flares are bursts of radiation from the Sun that sometimes hit Earth or shoot into deep space.

Earth largely protects us from the damaging impact of solar flares by using its magnetic field. However, they can still affect our tech and confuse migrating animals that rely on the magnetic field for direction.
Solar flares can cause radio blackouts and impact satellite communications.
It's the latter that is currently causing concern.
The European Space Agency is worried about its Swarm constellation, which measures Earth's magnetic field.
Anja Stromme, ESA's Swarm mission manager, told Space.com: "In the last five, six years, the satellites were sinking about two and a half kilometers [1.5 miles] a year.
But since December last year, they have been virtually diving. The sink rate between December and April has been 20 kilometers [12 miles] per year."
The sinking has coincided with the Sun's extreme activity.
It's generally accepted that satellites will bear the brutal brunt of harsh space conditions and eventually fall back to Earth and burn up.

However, the current rate at which satellites are dropping is baffling scientists.
Stromme told Space.com: "There is a lot of complex physics that we still don't fully understand going on in the upper layers of the atmosphere where it interacts with the solar wind.
We know that this interaction causes an upwelling of the atmosphere. That means that the denser air shifts upwards to higher altitudes."

SpaceX satellites are also said to be struggling with the current solar weather.Elon Musk's firm was said to lose 40 satellites during a recent bout of intense solar activity.

Some experts see the positive in this as the Sun is clearing some space junk around Earth.
Others are concerned about the effect this could have on our communications and the space data we collect. Fortunately, the falling satellites aren't being labeled as a danger to humans because they can burn up before hitting Earth.
 

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 01

Solar activity during the past 24 hours was very low with no major events..GOES satellite values remain the same as yesterday X-rays remain at B1 (quiet) levels and the probability of a C class flare is 25% while for M and X flares the probability is very low.

As forecasted, geospace remained quiet with a planetary index Kp= 1 and is expected to remain so throughout the weekend. No significant flares on the Earthside but there was a long-duration event on the far southeast limb and a CME on the farside northwest.


While the side of the sun facing the earth remains quiet the solar party is on far side. And so it has been in the last 3 months observations. After the X-class (major) solar flare on March 30, 2022 the largest solar flares the earth has faced are M-class (strong) and mostly C-class (small).

The number of sunspots decreased even though we have two new regions. AR3045 and AR3046. This is because existing regions lost sunspots or small individual sunspots disappeared before assigning them a region.

AR3045 started as a complex of 4 sunspots but quickly lost them. It is currently a single sunspot with a alfa magnetic field and a size of 10MH. AR3046 is a single sunspot too with a alfa magnetic field and a size of 60MH. They are not a threat of major flares.

Solar wind flowing from this northern coronal hole could reach Earth on July 6th.
coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 364.7 km/sec ( 13:18 UTC Jul 01)
▪︎density: 8.64 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 3.6% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 40 (SN 48 June 30)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=1 quiet

ALL QUIET: A slow-moving CME that might have hit Earth yesterday instead completely missed. NOAA forecasters say our planet's magnetic field should remain quiet for the next 3 days. SpaceWeather.com
Yesterday, an explosion from a hidden sunspot on the northwest hurled a partial halo CME into space. The storm cloud will not hit Earth; it is traveling almost directly away from us. The active sunspot should turn to face Earth about 10 days from now when it completes its farside transit SpaceWeather.com
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 02

The forecast of a quiet Geospace for the weekend was not fulfilled. At 01:35 UTC on July 02 active geomagnetic conditions Kp=4 were recorded when a low motion CME passed close to the Earth. The solar wind did not increase its speed (335 km/sec) however, at 05:59 UTC the planetary index reached a geomagnetic activity Kp=5 giving rise to a G1 (minor) class storm. As a result of the Geomagnetic storm the auroral oval expanded and auroras were visible as far south as the US/Canadian border.
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The solar storm subsided a couple of hours later. At this moment (13:06 UTC july 02) the planetary index is quiet again.

X-rays remain at B1 level (quiet) the probability of a C class flare is 25% while for M and X flares the probability is very low.

New regios were assigned: AR3047 located on the southeast, is a complex composed of 6 sunspots with a beta magnetic field and a size of 20 millionths of a hemisphere. The probability of a class C eruption is 10%. AR3048 located on the southeast, is a complex composed of 3 sunspots with a beta magnetic field and a size of 20MH The probability of a class C eruption is 5%.

Regions 3030, 3031, 3037 and 3039 are expected to return next week

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 326.3 km/sec ( 13:13 UTC Jul 02)
▪︎density: 7.26 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 3.9% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 39 (SN 40 June 30)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=3 quiet

THE BREEZE FROM A PASSING CME: A CME passed close to Earth on July 1st. It did not directly strike our planet's magnetic field. Instead, it made itself known by "snowplowing" some dense plasma in our direction. Here are the data. The near miss caused geomagnetic unrest that could develop into G1-class storming on July 2nd. SpaceWeather.com
A SUDDEN INCREASE IN NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS: Something unexpected just happened in the mesosphere. As June came to an end, NASA's AIM spacecraft detected a sharp increase in the frequency of noctilucent clouds (NLCs), the most in 15 years. NLCs are Earth's highest clouds. Seeded by meteoroids. SpaceWeather.com
frequencies_strip2.jpg

▪︎Coronal hole
▪︎Southwest Eruption
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 03

Solar activity during the past 24 hours remained stable, no major events. GOES satellite values remain the same as yesterday X-rays remain at B1 (quiet) levels and the probability of a C class flare is 25% while for M and X flares the probability is very low. The solar flares have mostly come from AR3046 but do not pose a threat.

Geospace has calmed down. It is forecast to remain so for the next 72 hours.

The number of sunspots has increased slightly due to the appearance of new regions. Six regions remain visible in the solar disk AR3040, AR3043 and AR3046 - 49
AR3049 is a sunspot with an alpha magnetic field (unipolar) and a size of 10 millionths of a hemisphere located in the southeast and does not pose a threat of major eruptions, the probability of producing a class C flare is 5% while classes M and X is 1%.

On social networks people are reporting their aurora sightings.


AURORAS IN THE USA: The holiday weekend began with silent fireworks. On Saturday, July 2nd, sky watchers across northern-tier US states witnessed a beautiful display of aurora borealis. Why? A passing CME caused a G1-class geomagnetic storm. The storm has subsided now... SpaceWeather.com

Current Conditions

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 327.1 km/sec ( 13:30 UTC Jul 03)
▪︎density: 20.04 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 3.9% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 57 (SN 39 Jul 02)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2 quiet
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 04

Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp=4) were recorded at 22:45 UTC on Sunday, July 03.The destabilized condition of the magnetic field lasted approximately four hours after which it returned to quiet level. (Kp=3)

At 03:24 on July 4 the solar wind reached a speed of 376.1 km/sec and a density of 56.07 protons/cm3.

(Density measures how tightly compressed the molecules are in a space. The closer the molecules are packed together, the higher the density)

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Solar wind varies in density, temperature and speed. In situ observations of the solar wind have shown that there are essentially two types of wind: a fast wind with speeds between 500 and 750 km/s, high temperature and low density, and a slow wind with speeds between 250 and 400 km/s, denser and colder.

In Earth's orbit, the solar wind has a density that varies between 10 and 100 ions per cubic centimeter; this is a very low density, billions of times less than the air in our Earth's atmosphere (the average density of dry air is 1.293 kg/m3)

More images

After active conditions were registered, the planetary index reached at 05:59 UTC July 04 geomagnetic storm conditions Kp=5 which subsided at approximately 11:00 UTC.

The cause of this phenomenon:

SOMETIMES A NEAR-MISS IS CLOSE ENOUGH: ON July 1st, a CME passed close to Earth. It did not hit. Instead, it snowplowed some dense solar wind plasma in our direction. That was enough to spark a G1-class geomagnetic storm with auroras across many northern-tier US states. Rocky Raybell sends this picture from Keller, Washington:
kellerwa_strip.jpg
SpaceWeather.com

Another minor geomagnetic storm (G1) is expected to occur next Wednesday due to a high velocity current from a coronal hole in the northern hemisphere.
This is a full X-ray image of the Sun on July 3, 2022. There are coronal holes (dark regions) in the north polar region (above) and near the center in the north direction.

The number of sunspots has decreased. Four old regions remain on the solar disk AR3045, AR3046, AR3047 and AR3049.

AR3046 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class

And we have two new regios

AR3050 is a group of 4 sunspots.with an beta magnetic field (biipolar) and a size of 20 millionths of a hemisphere located in the northeast and does not pose a threat of major eruptions, the probability of producing a class C flare is 10% while classes M and X is 1%.

AR3051 is a group of 4 sunspots.with an beta magnetic field and a size of 39MH located in the northeast. This sunspot has a 15% chance of producing a class C eruption.

Current Conditions 13:28 UTC 04 July

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 377.9 km/sec
▪︎density: 6.2 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 4.2% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 42 (SN 57 Jul 03)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=3 quiet

 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 05

Solar activity in the past 24 hours was characterized by class C solar flares.

AR3046 produced a class C5.1 eruption at 13:32 UTC july 04 There was a coronal mass ejection associated


AR3053 a new and potentially large sunspot is emerging on the eastern limb and produced a Class C5.8 solar eruption.

AR3047 on the southwest produced a class C9.8 eruption

On July 5, a C5.8 flare occurred at 03:47 UT on the eastern (left) limb of the Sun, followed by a C9.8 flare at 4:07 UT in active region 13047. The size and location of the flare are indicated by blue letters and blue circles in the figure.

New active regions were assigned.

AR3052 is a group of six sunspots, with a beta magnetic field located on the northeast with a size of 30MH This sunspot has a 10% chance of producing a class C eruption.

AR3053 is one big sunspot with a alfa magnetic field located on the northeast with a size of 180MH (larger than the Earth) This sunspot has a 35% chance of producing a class C eruption a 10% of producing a class M eruption and 1% of a strong class X

BREAKING SWx NEWS: We just had the 310th new sunspot region appear on the Sun in 2022. This surpasses the total number in all of 2021! It is only day number 186, 179 days to go. Keith Strong on Twitter @drkstrong

Current Conditions at 14:21 UTC July 05

▪︎Geospace disturbed most of the time yesterday (kp4) quiet now
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 357.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.11 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 4.7% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 79 (SN 42 Jul 04)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=1 quiet
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Aphelion
On Monday (July 4), Earth is far away from the sun as possible — reaching what astronomers call aphelion at 3 a.m. EDT (0700 GMT).

At aphelion, Earth will be 94.51 million miles (152.1 million kilometers) away from the sun.

Earth will be 1.67% farther from the sun than the mean Earth-sun separation, also known as an astronomical unit. (One astronomical unit is equivalent to 92.96 million miles (149.6 million km)
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 06

Solar activity during the past 24 hours remained stable, no major events. GOES satellite X-rays values remain at C1.1 levels (quiet 04:00 UTC july 06) and the probability of a C class flare is 60% while for M is 15% and X flare 1%

Big sunspot AR3053 located on the northeast produced a C1.2 at 03:50 UTC July 06

AR3047 confirmed to have produced a CME

The C9.8 flare that occurred at 4:07 UT (13:07 CST) on July 5 in the active region 13047 appears to have been accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME). According to the quoted tweet, Type-II radio bursts were reported to accompany the flare, and the movie shows EUV waves propagating north (up) from the flare point.
NASA's solar wind model calculations for the CME that occurred on July 5 (see cited tweet) predict that the eastern edge of the CME will hit the earth around 14:30 UT (23:30 JST) on July 8. The CME is faint in observations, and since it is not a direct hit, the impact on the earth is expected to be small, but we will keep an eye on the solar wind data.

New active region AR3054 sunspot number 2, with a beta magnetic field located on the northwest with a size of 10MH This sunspot has a 10% chance of producing a class C eruption.

Current Conditions at 14:11 UTC July 06

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 319.6 km/sec
▪︎density: 10.89 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 5.4% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 92 (SN 79 Jul 05)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=1 quiet In the next few hours the planetary index is expected to be Kp =5 and initiate a minor geomagnetic storm G1.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of minor G1-class geomagnetic storms today, July 6th, when a stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a cyclops-like hole in the sun's atmosphere. SpaceWeather.com
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 07

Solar activity during the past 24 hours was technically at low levels. GOES satellite X-rays values are now at B1 levels (quiet) and the probability of a C class flare in the next 24 hours is 60% while for M is 15% and X flare 1%

The geomagnetic storm predicted for July 6th did not happen and the new forecasts for the next 24 hours point only to an unsettled Geospace with a planetary index of Kp=4. (new data available see current conditions)

At 04:52 on July 07 the planetary index remained at Kp=0 with a solar wind speed of 304.3 km/sec and a density of 11.07 protons per cubic centimeter.

New active region AR3055 is a group of 3 sunspots with a beta magnetic field located on the southeast with a size of 120MH This sunspot has a 25% chance of producing a class C eruption. In fact this sunspot produced a C1.5 flare at 01:16 UTC july 07 (No image available)


Current Conditions at 12:52 UTC July 07

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 414.1 km/sec
▪︎density: 10.1 protons/cm3
The magnetic field at Earth is enhanced this morning as we appear to have made connection with a high speed stream. Kp=6 possible today with the conditions we’re currently seeing

A minor geomagnetic storm warning is in effect until 15:00Z, but I do expect this to be extended through the end of the Zulu day

Solar wind densities remain slightly elevated, signaling the continued potential for coronal hole high speed stream connection and potential increases in geomagnetic activity. A minor geomagnetic storm watch remains in effect for the Zulu day today. @spacewxwatch
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 5.4% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 98 (SN 92 Jul 06)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2 quiet
Solar wind observations by both DSCOVR and ACE spacecraft captured changes (rapid increases in density, velocity, and temperature) characteristic of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) around 6:03 UT (15:03 JST) on July 7 (blue squares in Figures 1 and 2). Depending on future changes, magnetospheric activity may also be affected. [Credit: NOAA/SWPC]
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Second Geomagnetic storm in progress

The first geomagnetic storm of the day started around 12:00 UTC at July 07 with a solar wind speed of 414.1 km/sec and a planetary index of kp=5 later around 15:00 UTC the geomagnetic storm subsided and the solar wind slowed to 372.6 km/sec. The planetary index was established in Kp=4 (unsettle)

The second Geomagnetic storm began around 00:00 UTC

Current Conditions at 01:35 UTC july 08

▪︎Solar wind speed record: 402.6 km/sec
▪︎density: 12.64 protons/cm3

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