Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 28

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Few minor C-class flares. The largest event of the period was a C2.3 flare from AR3169 at 16:57 UTC on December 28

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608308236897116162

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3169, AR3171, AR3173, AR3175, AR3176 and new region AR3177

AR3177 located on the southeast (S18E71) is a group of 3 sunspots with a alpha magnetic field and an area of 90HM. According to NOAA it has a 35% chance of producing C-class flares

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608115312746196992

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 88 (28 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 557.6 km/s at 05:24 UTC on December 28 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 2

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608213637956616198

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608130276718166017

Solar wind flowing from a northern coronal hole could graze Earth on New Year's Eve.


● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on December 29

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 0.67
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 424.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 4.06 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -1.8% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 02:25 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 88 (SN 89 Dec 28)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Ca.]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 28

What's to come in next year's Solar Cycle 2023 according to Almanac Daily.

Audio recording of the Solar Cycle 25 media teleconference
Source
Weather.gov > News Around NOAA

Hello Solar Cycle 25

• More about solar minimum
• An introduction to space weather and the Space Weather Prediction Center
• Solar Cycle 25 blog

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608156824733351937

Dec 29, 2022 (Karma)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608236350888677377

NOAA Shares First Imagery from GOES-18 SUVI Instrument

The Solar Ultraviolet Imager, or SUVI, onboard NOAA’s GOES-18 satellite, which launched on March 1, 2022, began observing the sun on June 24, 2022.

www.nesdis.noaa.gov

July 19, 2022 Snip:

The Solar Ultraviolet Imager, or SUVI, onboard NOAA’s GOES-18 satellite, which launched on March 1, 2022, began observing the sun on June 24, 2022. SUVI monitors the sun in the extreme ultraviolet portion of the electromagnetic spectrum.

The sun’s upper atmosphere, or solar corona, consists of extremely hot plasma, which is ionized gas. This plasma interacts with the sun’s powerful magnetic field, generating bright loops of material that can be heated to millions of degrees. Outside hot coronal loops, there are cooler regions called filaments which can erupt and become a key source of space weather when the sun is active. Filaments and active regions sometimes produce coronal mass ejections (CMEs), hurtling huge tangled clouds of plasma and magnetic field out into the solar system.

The sun’s 11-year activity cycle is ramping back up, meaning phenomena such as CMEs and solar flares are increasing in frequency. GOES-18’s SUVI captured a CME on July 10, 2022, which can be seen in the bottom right quadrant of the sun in the animation above.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608152141822103559

 

[Puma]

A region that has not yet been assigned a number because it is on the far northeast, has produced two M-class flares on December 29 2022

The first M1.2 flare occurred at 07:27 UTC and produced a minor radio blackout R1 over the Indian Ocean.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608397834633592832

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608362452365844481

The second M2.4 flare occurred at 18:30 UTC and produced a minor radio blackout R1 over the South Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608549170448830465

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608528547190022145

"Both events were partially blocked from our view by the sun itself; it might have been larger events tha M-class", according to Heliophysicist Dr. Alex Young

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 01- 2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 02:48 UTC on December 31 from Region 3180 (N19E56).

Let's see how AR3176 behaves on its way west

On December 30 AR3176 produced 2 M-class flares: A M1.4 ocurred at 15:28 UTC and produced a minor R1 radio blackout over South America. Then at 19:38 UTC a M3.7 that produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean. There is a CME associated with the M3.7

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARES (UPDATED): Earth is in the strike zone. Sunspot AR3176 is directly facing our planet, and it is crackling with M-class solar flares. The strongest so far, an M3.7-class flare on Dec. 30th at 1938 UT, caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean and hurled a CME toward Earth. ETA: January 4th.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608931283371184129

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608910565883117568

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609312465925406720

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3171, AR3172
AR3173, AR3176, AR3177, AR3179 and AR3180

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608820855953567744

The total number of sunspots has increased to 121 (35 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 670 km/s at 19:38 UTC Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached: 22:05 UTC

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609121030966251520

● Current Conditions at 02:30 UTC on January 01

▪︎Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 572.7 km/sec
▪︎density: 1.64 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.6% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C9 at 21:48 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 121 (SN 113 Dec 31)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

COSMIC RAYS SINK TO A 6-YEAR LOW: Cosmic rays reaching Earth just hit a six-year low. Neutron counters in Oulu, Finland, registered the sudden decrease on Dec. 26th when a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field:


The CME swept aside galactic cosmic rays near our planet, abruptly reducing radiation levels. Researchers call this a "Forbush Decrease," after American physicist Scott Forbush, who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century.

The Dec. 26th event continues a trend that began in 2020. Since then, cosmic ray fluxes have been fitfully decreasing as one CME after another hit Earth. The reason is Solar Cycle 25, which began around that time and has been gaining strength. The Forbush Decreases are adding up.

Scott Forbush was the first to notice the yin-yang relationship between solar activity and cosmic rays. When one goes up, the other goes down. CMEs play a big role in this relationship. The solar storm clouds contain tangled magnetic fields that do a good job scattering cosmic rays away from our planet.

A recent paper in the Astrophysical Journal looked at the last two solar cycles and compared the daily rate of CMEs to the strength of cosmic rays near Earth. This plot shows the results:


At the peak of Solar Cycle 24, the sun was producing more than 5 CMEs per day. At the same time, galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) dropped more than 60%.

Neutron counts are now at their lowest level since 2016. If current trends continue, cosmic ray levels will plunge even further in the years ahead, perhaps even lower than Solar Cycle 24. This is good news for astronauts and polar air travelers who will benefit from less radiation.

FAQ: Why neutrons? When cosmic rays strike Earth’s atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that rain down on Earth. Among these particles are neutrons, which can make it all the way down to Earth's surface. Researchers at the Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland, have been counting neutrons every day since 1964, providing an unparalleled record of cosmic rays for almost 60 years.

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 03/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9.5 event observed at 06:21 UTC on January 02 from Region 3176 (N19W29). Sunspot AR3176 poses a continued threat for M-class solar flares and right now is facing earth while AR3180 has been the most active region but with minor C-class flares.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610124764877578240

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3173, AR3176, AR3177, AR3179, AR3180 and new region AR3181


AR3181 located on the southeast (S19E57) is a sunspot with alpha magnetic field that poses no threat for strong solar flares.

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 94 (34 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT 7 YEAR HIGH: 2022 ended with the highest monthly sunspot number in 7 years. This plot from NOAA shows the ascending progression of Solar Cycle 25:

For the 35th month in a row, Solar Cycle 25 is outperforming the official forecast. Conclusion: Solar Maximum will either happen sooner or be stronger than expected--possibly both. The next few years should have plenty of sunspots, solar flares, and CMEs. SpaceWeather.com

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528.5 km/s at 03:16 UTC on January 02. Maximum planetary index Kp 3

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Jan. 4th when a slow-moving CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. It was hurled in our direction by an M3.7-class solar flare (movie) in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR3176 on Dec. 30th. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on January 03

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 437.8 km/sec
▪︎density: 5.75 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.3 Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C3 at 23:11 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 94 (SN 94 Jan 02)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 4/2023

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Few minor C-class flares. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 10:36 UTC on January 03. Large explosion recorded on the far side of the sun, possibly an X-class flare

FARSIDE SOLAR EXPLOSION: This morning (Jan. 3rd at 1058 UT) something exploded on the farside of the sun. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded a bright CME billowing over the sun's southeastern limb:

The source of the blast was probably old sunspot AR3163, which has spent the last two weeks transiting the farside of the sun. It is due to return on Jan. 4th. Helioseismic echoes suggest that the sunspot has grown since we last saw it in December. It may present a threat for significant Earth-directed flares after it re-appears tomorrow. SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610317628119322625

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610411768349708294

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610366999300919298

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610272724789731329

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3173, AR3176, AR3177, AR3179, AR3180 and new region AR3181 All of these sunspots are stable or in decay, except AR3180 located in the northeast (N19E17) has grown in magnetic complexity, currently presenting a beta-gamma magnetic field.


The total number of sunspots has decreased to 89 (40 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 569.4 km/s at 06:44 UTC on January 03. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached: 02:36 UTC on January 04

Maximum planetary index Kp 4

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610479525913042944

● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on January 04

▪︎Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 419.7 km/sec
▪︎density: 5.15 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.8 Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2cat 00:00 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 89 (SN 94 Jan 03)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Ca.]

Massive CME Off The Back Of The Sun - Winter Storm Hudson - Record Snow For The Sierra's - Cycle 25

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610275165253865473

What a surprise. Within 24 hours, the ion tail activity has increased significantly. C/2022 E3 (ZTF) 2022 jan.2 5.00 UT 8x100sec 11" RASA QHY600 Michael Jäger

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609804668741484544

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 5/2023

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Few minor C-class flares. The largest solar event of the period was a C8.4 event observed at 18:45 UTC on January 04 from AR3177.

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory detected shock waves from the blast wrapping around both of the sun's poles. This suggests a very powerful explosion--possibly an X-flare. Radiation from the flare was eclipsed by the edge of the sun, reducing its intensity by one to two orders of magnitude, so that Earth-orbiting satellites detected only a C4-class event.​

Whatever exploded will soon turn to face Earth. Helioseismic echoes pinpoint its location no more than 2 days behind the sun's eastern limb:​

SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610339275840815105

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610706688159498240

There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3176, AR3177, AR3180 and AR3181 Sunspot AR3180 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares.

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 86 (35 of these are grouped into 4 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at active to storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 460.5 km/s at 02:09 UTC on January 04. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached at 05:20 UTC
Maximum planetary index Kp 5 A slow-moving CME hit Earth's magnetic field. It was hurled in our direction by an M3.7-class solar flare from sunspot AR3176 on Dec. 30th.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610712684617515018

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610814568472915968

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610766031596949504

● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on January 05

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 0
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 377.8 km/sec
▪︎density: 11.77 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.2 Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2 02:49 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 86 (SN 89 Jan 04)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 6/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6.8 event observed at 09:14 UTC on January 05 from Region 3182 (S17E72).

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected a major X1.2-class solar flare (Jan. 6th @ 0057 UT): image. The source is emerging sunspot AR3182, described below. The flare caused a shortwave radio blackout affecting most of the South Pacific including Australia and New Zealand: map. SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611185578543923204

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611185031732498437

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611167185942069248

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3176, AR3177, AR3180, AR3181 and new regions AR3182 and AR3183

AR3182 located on the southeast (S18E72) is a group of 4 sunspots with size 280HM and a beta magnetic field. The sunspot has generated various C-class flares and a X1.2 flare. NOAA forecasts a 5% chance of producing more X flares.

FARSIDE SUNSPOT EMERGES: As expected, a large sunspot and complex sunspot group is emerging over the sun's southeastern limb. Current images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory reveal a primary dark core approximately 3 times wider than Earth:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611097858320764928

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610706688159498240

This is the same sunspot group that produced a significant farside explosion on Jan. 3rd. No one knows exactly how intense that explosion was, but circumstantial evidence suggests it was X-class.​

Now that the active region is turning toward Earth, our planet could be in the line of fire for the next blast--*if* there is a next blast. Solar Cycle 25 is notorious for producing active regions that explode on the farside, then quiet down when they turn to face Earth. Time will tell if a geoeffective flare is in the offing. SpaceWeather.com​

AR3183 located on the southwest (S17W08) is a group of 5 sunspots with size 30HM and a beta magnetic field. The sunspot poses no threat for strong solar flares.

The total number of sunspots has increased to 103 (35 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536.5 km/s at 03:59 UTC on January 06 Maximum planetary index Kp 3

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on January 06

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 536.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 14.25 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.2 Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: X1.2 00:57 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 103 (SN 86 Jan 05)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 07/2023

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period, as mentioned above, was a X1 event observed at 00:57 UTC on January 06 from Region 3182 (S16E59). This was the first X-flare of the year.

In 2022, Seven X-class flares were recorded. The largest was an X2.2 at 03:57 on April 20 from AR2992. That flare did not impact the Earth because the region was almost on the far side of the sun.

X flare on April 29, 2022

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3176, AR3177, AR3180, AR3181, AR3182 and AR3183

AR3182 located on the southeast (S18E72) is a group of 4 sunspots with size 280HM and a beta magnetic field. The sunspot has generated various C-class flares and a X1.2 flare. NOAA forecasts a 5% chance of producing more X flares.

AR3182 (S16E55) has grown in size to 480 millionths of a hemisphere and its magnetic field is now beta-gamma.

DANGEROUS SUNSPOT: Newly-emerging sunspot AR3182 poses a threat for strong solar flares. On Jan. 3rd it produced a probable X-class eruption on the farside of the sun, followed on Jan. 6th by a definite X-flare on the Earthside. Given the size and apparent complexity of this large active region, there's a good chance the explosions will continue in the days ahead. SpaceWeather.com

At 00:52 UTC on January 07, AR3182 produced an M1.6 flare. Radiation from the flare caused a Minor R1 Radio blackout over southeast Asia and Australia. Mariners and ham radio operators in the area may have noticed loss of radio contact.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611530088960475137

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611526553170501637

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 101 (41 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 20% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s at 0903 UTC on January 06. Maximum planetary index: Kp 2

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 05:50 UTC on January 07

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 473.6 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.78 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.7 Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M1.6 at 00:52 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 101 (SN 103 Jan 06)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 08/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. Once again, AR3182 was the protagonist region of the past 24 hours, generating several C-class flares. The largest event of the period was a M1.6 (see previous post) but also a C6.9 at 11:09 on January 07

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611620068269649926

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611930363458379777

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611915182560759809

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3177, AR3180, AR3181, AR3182 and AR3183

AR3182 (S16E55) has grown in size to 480 millionths of a hemisphere and its magnetic field is now beta-gamma.

AR3182 (S16E46) has again increased its size to 510 millionths of a hemisphere and its magnetic field is now beta-gamma-delta that pose a threat for M-class and X-class solar flares.

AR3181 (S20W07) has grown in size and magnetic complexity. It is now 380 millionths of a hemisphere in size and its magnetic field is now beta-delta. NOAA forecasts a 25% chance of generating M-class flares.

Finally AR3183 (S17W36) has grown in size and magnetic complexity as well. Currently its size is 200 millionths of a hemisphere and its magnetic field is now beta-delta. NOAA forecasts a 10% chance of generating M-class flares.

CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY: NOAA forecasters say there is a 20% chance of X-class solar flares today. If it happens, it will probably come from sunspot AR3182, now turning to face Earth:

AR3182 has already produced X-class events on Jan. 3rd and Jan 6th, so another one would be in character. Of equal interest is sunspot AR3181, which has doubled in size in the past 24 hours and is now directly facing Earth. SpaceWeather.com

The total number of sunspots has increased to 104 (54 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 40% chance for M flares and 20% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489.7 km/s at 03:26 UTC on January 07 Maximum planetary index: Kp 3

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 06:30 UTC on January 08

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 439.2 km/sec
▪︎density: 8.39 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.7 Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C9 at 03:44 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 104 (SN 101 Jan 07)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 09/2023

The new region AR3184 has been the protagonist in the last 24 hours which have registered a moderate level of activity. AR3184 produced nine solar flares of which five were M-class and the rest C-class. The M flares were recorded on January 08-09 as follows:

● M1.2 at 08:54 UTC produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Africa
● M1.4 at 09:48 UTC produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Africa
● M1.4 at 15:08 UTC produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South America
● M1. at 19:11 UTC produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean
● M1.1 at 01:02 UTC on January 09 produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Oceania

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612222394864898048

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612225924858269697

On the other hand, the AR3182 region considered as dangerous because of its unstable beta-gamma-delta magnetic field with energy to produce X-flares produced eight class C flares, C.9 being the most intense one.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612036036640514051

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3177, AR3180, AR3181, AR3182, AR3183 and new region AR3184

Preliminary data for AR3184 indicate that the region is located on the southeast (S13E81) with 3 sunspots and size 240HM it is generating M-class flares.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612150651030585346

The total number of sunspots has increased to 117 (57 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 70% chance for M flares and 30% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 459.4 km/s at 08:44 UTC on January 07 Maximum planetary index: Kp 3

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 05:50 UTC on January 09

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 381.7 km/sec
▪︎density: 4.48 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.7 Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 01:02 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 117 (SN 104 Jan 08)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 10/2023

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1.98 event observed at 18:50 UTC from Region 3184 (S14E67). AR13181 produced a few M-class solar flares today also, this region grew a bit and had a delta structure present in its configuration. The solar flares were recorded on January 09-10 as follows:

● M1.88 from AR3181 at 08:30 UTC produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean
● M2.15 from AR3181 at 09:00 UTC produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean
● M1 from AR3181 at 13:35 UTC produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean
● X1.98 from AR3184 at at 18:50 UTC produced a strong R3 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean

This was an impulsive solar flare--intense but probably too brief to lift a coronal mass ejection (CME) out of the sun's atmosphere. It is too soon, however, to rule out the possibility of debris heading our way. Pending data from SOHO coronagraphs will reveal any CMEs in the hours ahead.
SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612533075967356928

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612523122262958090

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612535732635058179

● M5.4 from AR3184 at 19:00 UTC produced a Moderate R2 Radio blackout over South west Pacific Ocean
● M5.1 from new active region not yet numbered at 00:16 UTC on January 10

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612608029459087360

● M2.7 from AR3181 at 02:30 UTC on January 10 produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Australia
● M1.1 from AR3181 at 03:00 UTC produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Australia

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612627296707297280

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3180, AR3181, AR3182, AR3183, AR3184 and new region AR3185




AR3185 located on the northwest (N20W00) is a group of 4 sunspots with size 30HM and beta magnetic field. It poses no threat for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasts 15% chance for C flares

The total number of sunspots has increased to 142 (82 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 70% chance for M flares and 35% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 513.9 km/s at 12:30 UTC on January 09 Maximum planetary index: Kp 2

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on January 10

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 382.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 5.65 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.7 Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M5 00:16 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 142 (SN 117 Jan 09)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

● X1.98 from AR3184 at at 18:50 UTC produced a strong R3 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean

Meanwhile, it is interesting to zoom out and see what the whole sun did around the time of the X-flare. SDO recorded 5 rapidfire eruptions. Click to set the scene in motion:

​

Going off like popcorn, these five sites erupted in a time window shorter than 90 minutes despite some of them being separated by as much as a million kilometers. Coincidence? Maybe not. Researchers discovered long ago that magnetic instabilities can ignite nearly simultaneous explosions across the entire face of the sun. This appears to be such a case.

Global Eruption Rocks the Sun
December 13, 2010
On August 1, 2010, an entire hemisphere of the sun erupted. Filaments of magnetism snapped and exploded, shock waves raced across the stellar surface, billion-ton clouds of hot gas billowed into space. Astronomers knew they had witnessed something big.
It was so big, it may have shattered old ideas about solar activity.

"The August 1st event really opened our eyes," says Karel Schrijver of Lockheed Martin’s Solar and Astrophysics Lab in Palo Alto, CA. "We see that solar storms can be global events, playing out on scales we scarcely imagined before."
For the past three months, Schrijver has been working with fellow Lockheed-Martin solar physicist Alan Title to understand what happened during the "Great Eruption." They had plenty of data: The event was recorded in unprecedented detail by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory and twin STEREO spacecraft. With several colleagues present to offer commentary, they outlined their findings at a press conference today at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

Explosions on the sun are not localized or isolated events, they announced. Instead, solar activity is interconnected by magnetism over breathtaking distances. Solar flares, tsunamis, coronal mass ejections--they can go off all at once, hundreds of thousands of miles apart, in a dizzyingly-complex concert of violence.
"To predict eruptions we can no longer focus on the magnetic fields of isolated active regions," says Title, "we have to know the surface magnetic field of practically the entire sun."
This revelation increases the work load for space weather forecasters, but it also increases the potential accuracy of their forecasts.
"The whole-sun approach could lead to breakthroughs in predicting solar activity," commented Rodney Viereck of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, CO. "This in turn would provide improved forecasts to our customers such as electric power grid operators and commercial airlines, who could take action to protect their systems and ensure the safety of passengers and crew."
In a paper they prepared for the Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR), Schrijver and Title broke down the Great Eruption into more than a dozen significant shock waves, flares, filament eruptions, and CMEs spanning 180 degrees of solar longitude and 28 hours of time. At first it seemed to be a cacophony of disorder until they plotted the events on a map of the sun's magnetic field.

Locations of key events are labeled in this extreme ultraviolet image of the sun, obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory on August 1st. White lines trace the sun's magnetic field.
Image Credit:
K Schrijver & A. Title
Title describes the Eureka! moment: "We saw that all the events of substantial coronal activity were connected by a wide-ranging system of separatrices, separators, and quasi-separatrix layers." A "separatrix" is a magnetic fault zone where small changes in surrounding plasma currents can set off big electromagnetic storms.
Researchers have long suspected this kind of magnetic connection was possible. "The notion of 'sympathetic' flares goes back at least three quarters of a century," they wrote in their JGR paper. Sometimes observers would see flares going off one after another--like popcorn--but it was impossible to prove a link between them. Arguments in favor of cause and effect were statistical and often full of doubt.
"For this kind of work, SDO and STEREO are game-changers," says Lika Guhathakurta, NASA's Living with a Star Program Scientist. "Together, the three spacecraft monitor 97% of the sun, allowing researchers to see connections that they could only guess at in the past."
To wit, barely two-thirds of the August event was visible from Earth, yet all of it could be seen by the SDO-STEREO fleet. Moreover, SDO's measurements of the sun's magnetic field revealed direct connections between the various components of the Great Eruption—no statistics required.
Much remains to be done. "We're still sorting out cause and effect," says Schrijver. "Was the event one big chain reaction, in which one eruption triggered another--bang, bang, bang!--in sequence? Or did everything go off together as a consequence of some greater change in the sun's global magnetic field?"

Further analysis may yet reveal the underlying trigger; for now, the team is still wrapping their minds around the global character of solar activity. One commentator recalled the old adage of three blind men describing an elephant--one by feeling the trunk, one by holding the tail, and another by sniffing a toenail. Studying the sun one sunspot at a time may be just as limiting.
"Not all eruptions are going to be global," notes Guhathakurta. "But the global character of solar activity can no longer be ignored."
As if the sun wasn't big enough already….

 

[Puma]

Meanwhile, it is interesting to zoom out and see what the whole sun did around the time of the X-flare.

The region with the number 2 promises spectacle

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612686826799792130

That region had an eruption almost simultaneous to X1.9.