Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 17

What a crazy couple of days! After what feels like months of relative silence our Star woke up. We had 29 solar flares that reached the M-class threshold over 72 hours period. Did any of these solar flares produce any significant coronal mass ejections? We have to wait a little and see.

Thus, solar activity remains at a high level. These were the M-class solar flares of the past 24 hours

● M3.5 at 02:05 UTC on Dec/16 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Oceania
● M1.2 at 05:05 UTC on Dec/16 from AR3163 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean
● M1.3 at 05:56 UTC on Dec/16 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean
● M1.2 at 06:56 UTC on Dec/16 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean
● M1.6 at 07:45 UTC on Dec/16 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean
● M1.5 at 09:15 UTC on Dec/16 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean
● M1.1 at 09:55 UTC on Dec/16 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean and Africa
● M4.0 at 10:26 UTC on Dec/16 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean and Africa
● M2.4 at 14:45 UTC on Dec/16 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Africa
● M1.2 at 15:46 UTC on Dec/16 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Africa
https://twitter.com/x/status/1603942699329093634
https://twitter.com/x/status/1603486555145895939
THE EXPLOSIONS CONTINUE: Sunspot AR3165 is crackling with M-class solar flares, more than 18 in the last two days. Pulses of extreme ultraviolet radiation are ionizing the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing frequent shortwave radio blackouts. The blackout events are regional, like this one, but they are rolling around the globe as Earth turns beneath the flaring sun.

The constant flaring of AR3165 has made it easy for astrophotographers to catch the sunspot exploding. Sylvain Weiller sends this picture of today's M4-class flare from Jerusalem:​
Click to expand...
midflare_strip.jpg
SpaceWeather.com

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3160, AR3162, AR3163, AR3165, AR3166, AR3167, AR3168
hmi200.gif

A MORE DANGEROUS SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR3165 may be crackling with solar flares, but it is not directly facing Earth. Most of the debris from those explosions is completely missing our planet. Meanwhile, there is a more dangerous sunspot. AR3163 has an unstable magnetic field and it is staring straight at us:
Click to expand...
latest_4096_HMIIF_strip4.jpg
A magnetic map of the sunspot (inset) shows a mixture of polarities in the region between the sunspot's primary cores. Plus (+) is bumping into minus (-). This could cause explosive magnetic reconnection and a powerful Earth-directed solar flare. Any CME emerging from the blast site would almost certainly strike our planet, causing geomagnetic storms.

So far AR3163 is quiet despite its potential, but it will be facing Earth for several more days. Tick, tock, dangerous sunspot. SpaceWeather.com​
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1603816927532646400

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 140 (30 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h:???
Data not available
https://twitter.com/x/status/1603943578996178944

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 355 km/s at 03:18 UTC on December 16 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 2

Aurora Oval ????

● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on December 17 (The data have not been updated for hours, possibly there are problems with the satellites).

▪︎Geospace ?
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp ?
▪︎Solar wind speed record: ? km/sec
▪︎density: ? protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.4% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: ?
▪︎Sunspot number: 140 (SN 174 Dec 16)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 18

Well, after three days of M-class flares from Active Region 3165 solar activity levels were moderate in the last 24 hours. Several C-class flares were observed. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.1 event observed at 19:53 UTC from new Active Region 3169 (N20E69). The flare generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean
https://twitter.com/x/status/1604207839269920768
https://twitter.com/x/status/1604209817878499328
https://twitter.com/x/status/1604214460830326785
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3160, AR3162, AR3163, AR3165, AR3166, AR3167, AR3168 and new regions AR3169 and AR3170

AR3169 located on the northeast (N20E69) is a region formed by two sunspots occupying an area of 160HM with a beta magnetic field. NOAA forecasts a 35% chance for C-class flares.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1604256959733108738
AR3170 located on the southeast (S18E72) is a tiny sunspots occupying an area of 20HM with a alfa magnetic field. NOAA forecasts a 15% chance for C-class flares
hmi200.gif
The total number of sunspots has increased to 139 (49 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 396 km/s at 06:15 UTC on December 17 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 1

Aurora Oval
aurora-map.jpg
Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole could graze Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 20-21
coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on December 18

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 340.6 km/sec
▪︎density: 0.31 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.4% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C5 5 at 01:22 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 139 (SN 109 Dec 17)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
 
SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 19

After last week's high solar activity, we are back to low levels. Several C-class flares were recorded in the past 24 hours. The most active region was AR3169 however, the region that recorded the largest event was AR3162 with a C5.9 event at 10:10 UTC on December 17.
QUIET WITH A CHANCE OF FLARES: Solar activity is low, but it might not remain so. At least one sunspot (AR3163) has an unstable magnetic field capable of significant explosions. SpaceWeather.com
Click to expand...
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3160, AR3162, AR3163, AR3166, AR3167, AR3168, AR3169 and AR3170. AR3165 is gone.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1604586188375040011

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 128 (48 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA has lowered its forecast for M-class flares. For the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438.2 km/s at 02:50 on December 18 Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 04:18 UTC on December 19 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 4

Aurora Oval
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on December 19

▪︎Geospace active
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 311.9 km/sec
▪︎density: 41.2 protons/cm3 at 04:23 then 4.31 p/cm3 at 04:37
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.4% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 03:42 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 128 (SN 139 Dec 18)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 20

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Several minor C-class flares. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 14:29 UTC from Region 3169 located on the northeast (N21E48).
https://twitter.com/x/status/1605031442026795009

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3162, AR3163, AR3166, AR3167, AR3168, AR3169 AR3170 and new region AR3171

AR3171 located on the northeast (N25E65) is a group of 5 sunspots. The region has an area of 30 millionths of a hemisphere and the sunspots have a beta magnetic field. (bipolar) According to NOAA the region has a 20% chance of producing C-class flares.

We will see how AR3171 behaves in the coming days. Perhaps it will happen like the previous regions that in the eastern limb appear very fierce but then calm down in their transit to the west to once again become threatening.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1604932050167136256

AR3169 located in the northeast (N21E45) next to the region AR3171 is growing and could soon pose a threat for significant solar flares according to SpaceWeather. Currently this region is 300HM in size and is composed of 11 sunspots with a beta magnetic field. According to NOAA it has a 70% chance of producing C-class flares and a 15% chance of producing M-class flares.
SDO_HMIIF_512.jpg

The total number of sunspots has increased to 132 ( 52 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA has lowered its forecast for M-class flares. For the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 514.3 km/s at 22:46 on December 19 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 4

Aurora Oval
aurora-map.jpg

● Current Conditions at 05:30 UTC on December 20

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 369.6 km/sec
▪︎density: 3.79 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.8 % Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C6 at 00: 03 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 132 (SN 128 Dec 19)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
https://twitter.com/x/status/1605009093290332161
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 21

Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate with a single M1.1 flare detected from AR3169 at 14:06 UTC on December 20
The M-class flare produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1605241377088045056
https://twitter.com/x/status/1605203642189025281
https://twitter.com/x/status/1605400244400885763

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3162, AR3163, AR3166, AR3167, AR3168, AR3169 AR3170 and AR3171
hmi200.gif

The Magnetic classification of AR3169 (N20E32) is now beta-gamma and is crackling with C-class solar flares. Solar physicists now consider that the AR3169 and AR3171 (N22E48) regions form a complex

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 119 ( 52 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 523.6 km/s at 17:33 UTC on December 20 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 2

Aurora Oval
aurora-map.jpg
https://twitter.com/x/status/1605232558190362624

● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on December 21

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1.67
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 407 km/sec
▪︎density: 5.21 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.4 % Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 00: 15 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 119 (SN 132 Dec 20)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 22

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Few minor C-class flares. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 05:18 UTC on December 21 from Region 3169 located on the northeast (N19E20).

ALL QUIET: Solar activity is low and it is likely to remain so through Christmas. All of the sunspots on the Earthside of the sun have relatively stable magnetic fields that pose a threat for, at most, minor C-class flares. The situation could change next week when one or more farside sunspots come over the horizon. SpaceWeather.com
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1605751655777144832

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3163, AR3166, AR3169, AR3170, AR3171 and new region AR3172

AR3163, AR3167 and AR3168 are gone.

AR3172 located on the southeast (S35E61) is a small sunspot with a alfa magnetic field. It poses no threat for strong solar flares.
hmi200 (1).gif

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 103 (43 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425.3 km/s at 14:49 UTC on December 21 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 3

Aurora Oval
aurora-map (1).jpg

● Current Conditions at 05:45 UTC on December 22

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 401.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.24 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.1% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C6 at 22: 30 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 103 (SN 119 Dec 21)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
Big Freeze incoming! West Coast earthquake watch active.. Wednesday night update 12/21/2022

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605679739238510592

https://twitter.com/x/status/1604756339963662336
#roid : an exceptional "lake effect" occurs in Japan, on the coast facing the China Sea: the cold air flying over this sea causes falls of #neige record for a month of December (110 cm in 24 hours in Hijiori)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605420114131943424

Screenshot 2022-12-22 at 07-25-11 Space Weather (@spaceweather) _ Twitter.png
Screenshot 2022-12-22 at 07-27-55 La Chaîne Météo on Twitter.png

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605322109500416000
A #Noël2022 without winter over most of Europe ...
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 23

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Like yesterday few minor C-class flares were recorded. The largest solar event of the period was a C3.4 event observed at 15:01 UTC on December 22 from Region 3171 located on the northeast (N24E30).
https://twitter.com/x/status/1606136796827357184
https://twitter.com/x/status/1605975653257515010
https://twitter.com/x/status/1605972633563959302

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3168, AR3169, AR3170, AR3171, AR3172 and new regions AR3173 and AR3174

AR3173 and AR3174 do not represent a threat for strong solar flares. AR3173 located on the northeast (N26E72) has an alpha magnetic field. AR3174 located also on the northeast (N22E36) ha a beta magnetic field.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1606025040729739264

The total number of sunspots has increased to 108 (38 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h is 95% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 17:59 UTC Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504.3 km/s at 23:59 UTC on December 22 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 4

Aurora Oval
https://twitter.com/x/status/1605956612522287104

● Current Conditions at 05:30 UTC on December 23

▪︎Geospace active
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 501.8km/sec
▪︎density: 10.7 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.1% average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 04: 38 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 108 (SN 103 Dec 22)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 24

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Several minor C-class flares were recorded. The largest solar event of the period was a C6.6 event observed at 14:46 UTC on December 23 from Region 3171 located on the northeast (N25E13).

Laura said:
A: Probably will call it a giant comet or the flaring of same.
Click to expand...
The following "official" version reminded me of the answer from the Cs. This object is not Nemesis, however, it is an example that "they" can name what appears up there however they want to.

And unusual object in the SOHO/LASCO field of view.

On December 20, 2022, Sungrazer Project citizen scientist Zesheng Yang reported coordinates of an unusual object in the LASCO C2 and C3 fields of view. Having seen and discovered many comets in the SOHO data, Zesheng knew immediately that this was something different, as did we. In fact, in 27 years of operations SOHO has never quite seen something like this, despite having seen it many, many times...
Click to expand...

c3_dust_speck.gif
The LASCO C3 view on 2022-12-20 from 06:18 through 08:30UT.
c2_debris_2022.gif
The LASCO C3 view on 2022-12-20 from 06:18 through 08:30UT

What is most notable here, as pointed out by many, is the way in which it seemingly rapidly turns away from the Sun. SOHO has seen literally thousands of comets, some of which do indeed follow a curved trajectory, but not over such short timescales and with such a dramatic curve. So naturally this led to an influx of questions from curious SOHO fans. Fortunately here we have several pieces of evidence that point to a clear (albeit somewhat unexciting) answer: it's just a piece of dust.
Click to expand...
( years of experience and the scientist Zesheng does not know how to recognize a speck of dust?)

Here's how we know this:
  • SOHO quite routinely sees what we call "debris" images. Here is a pretty dramatic example from 2020 in which we see multiple dust streaks across the image. This is caused by tiny micrometeorites hitting some part of the spacecraft and throwing up a puff of debris. (Note that the image presented as proof is static).
  • The curvature of the object's trajectory tells us that it cannot be close to the Sun -- the laws of physics simply would not support that at all because of how far away it would have to be and how bright it is (more on this below). So it must be close to the spacecraft.
  • So now we will address the question that everyone is thinking: why couldn't this be a spacecraft (or Santa test driving a new sleigh, which is our preferred alternate reality)? Well, if it was near the Sun, it would have to be truly vast in size to reflect as brightly as it does - like planet-sized - and something like that making its way into the solar system is going to get noticed and reported by a global army of amateur astronomers long before SOHO spots it! And to change trajectory
Click to expand...
So putting all this together, the physics and optical signature of the feature point almost unambiguously to this being something very small, and very close to the spacecraft (probably within a dozen feet or so). We also have clear evidence that immediately before it appeared, a micrometeorite created a small cloud of debris around the spacecraft, which is an event that happens at least several times per year. This adds up quite conclusively to a very fortuitous observation of a dust speck that by chance stayed perfectly in front of the LASCO C2 and C3 optics for a couple of hours
Click to expand...
NASA Conclusion: Must be Santa

santa_lasco.jpg

SOHO Hotshots

soho.nascom.nasa.gov

OK back to our regular program...nothing to see here.

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3168, AR3169, AR3170, AR3171, AR3172, AR3173 and AR3174
hmi200.gif
The total number of sunspots has decreased to 100 (30 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA has reduced its forecast as follows: 60% chance for C flares, 10% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to storm levels for the past 24 hours. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached at 14:15 UTC geomagnetic storm subsided around 21:00 UTC on December 23 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 568.5 km/s at 23:27 UTC The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 5

Aurora Oval
https://twitter.com/x/status/1606285824617639936

● Current Conditions at 05:20 UTC on December 24

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 3.33
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 550.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 11.21 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.2% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C6 at 14: 46 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 100 (SN 108 Dec 23)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25VACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 25

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Several minor C-class and B-class flares from regions AR3169 and AR3171. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 04:14 UTC from Region 3169 located on the northwest (N20W21).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1606848458333249538

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3168, AR3169, AR3171, AR3172, AR3173

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 85 (35 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 60% chance for C flares, 10% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 714 km/s at 23:54 UTC on December 24 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 4

Aurora Oval
aurora-map.jpg
CHRISTMAS LIGHTS: A high-speed stream of solar wind hit Earth on Dec. 23rd, sparking G1-class geomagnetic storms and auroras around the Arctic Circle. Markus Varik photographed the light show from Tromsø, Norway:
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1606742426882019328
https://twitter.com/x/status/1606536776859848706
https://twitter.com/x/status/1606527180883771393

● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on December 25

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 661.9 km/sec
▪︎density: 0.61 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.5% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C3.7 at 00:52 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 85 (SN 100 Dec 24)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
https://twitter.com/x/status/1606677373302210561
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 25VACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 26

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Few minor C-class flares, regions AR3169 and AR3171 are the most active. The largest solar event of the period was a C3.7 event observed at 00:52 UTC from Region 3170 located on the southwest (S19W04) on the far side.

MAGNETIC FILAMENT ERUPTION: A CME may be en route to Earth following the eruption of a magnetic filament. It lifted off from the sun's northern hemisphere during the early hours of Dec. 24th
Click to expand...
eruption_crop_strip.gif
Debris from the blast ripped through the sun's atmoshere and hurled a fast-moving CME into space. NOAA forecasters say it could hit Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 27th and spark G1-class geomagnetic storms. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras. SpaceWeather.com
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1607131740983922688

Remember the unknown object that made an "impossible" maneuver for the laws of physics and that SOHO said was a speck of dust?

chrome_screenshot_1672027965942.png

SupiciousObservers says in his video that he has never observed this before and that if it is not a UFO (but as SOHO mentioned it would be planetary in size) another possibility is that it is a galactic clump material.



There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3168, AR3169, AR3171, AR3172, AR3173 and new region AR3175

AR3175 located on the southeast (S22E57) is a group of 2 sunspots with size 40HM and beta magnetic field. It poses no threat for strong solar flares.
FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT: Suddenly, sunspot AR3169 is growing. During the past 24 hours it has added a dozen moon-sized dark cores to the previously empty region between itself and trailing sunspot AR3171: movie. The boiling emergence of so much magnetic flux could destabilize the sunspot's magnetic field and trigger strong flares. SpaceWeather.com
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1606998592417406976
The total number of sunspots has increased to 107 (47 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 15% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 700.3 km/s at 04:33 UTC on December 24 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 3

Aurora Oval
aurora-map (1).jpg
● Current Conditions at 04:50 UTC on December 26

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 567.8 km/sec
▪︎density: 0.03 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.7% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2.4 at 01:40 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 107 (SN 85 Dec 25)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 27

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. Several minor C-class flares mostly from new region AR3176 which produced a flare M2.07 at 00:54 on December 27 The flare generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Southeast Pacific Ocean
https://twitter.com/x/status/1607575418512490500
https://twitter.com/x/status/1607541037492232194
https://twitter.com/x/status/1607580430097846275
https://twitter.com/x/status/1607583365775126530

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3168, AR3169, AR3171, AR3172, AR3173, AR3175 and new region AR3176

AR3176 located on the northeast (N19E60) is a group of 3 sunspots with size 70HM and beta magnetic field. According to NOAA forecasts it has a 45% chance of producing C-class flares. With its presentation in the solar disk, it has already generated 9 C-class flares, the largest of which reached C6.5 on December 27th. The region will likely remain a threat for additional minor to moderate solar flares as it turns into view.
hmi200.gif
The total number of sunspots has decreased to 96 (37 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 40% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 707.4 km/s at 07:38 UTC on December 25 Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 11:20 UTC. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached at 14:55 UTC The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 5
Aurora Oval
aurora-map.jpg
https://twitter.com/x/status/1607399964535136258

● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on December 27

▪︎Geospace active
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 511.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 1.47 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.6% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M2 at 00:54 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 96 (SN 107 Dec 26)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 28

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. Several minor C-class flares and two M-class flares were recorded.

A M1.0 from AR3176, located on the northeast, ocurred at 08:15 UTC on December 27 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1607686632857112578

A M1.2 from AR3169 located on the northwest ocurred at 16:26 on December 27, it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South America
https://twitter.com/x/status/1607780033896108033

Puma said:
Many of us have noticed for example, that, lately, regions with potentially dangerous sunspots for producing M-class and X-flares do not do so once they are facing the Earth,
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The M-class flares of the past 24 hours are an example of the above. AR3176 made its presentation in the northeast with a M2.07 on December 27 while AR3169 is saying goodbye with an M1.2.

AR3169 appeared in the solar disk on December 17 and did so with an M1.09 flare, then an M1.1 flare, during its westward path, generated only C-class flares.
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SpaceWeatherlive..com
Let's see how AR3176 behaves on its way west.

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3169, AR3171, AR3172, AR3173, AR3175 and AR3176
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The total number of sunspots has decreased to 89 (41 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares.

CHANCE OF FLARES TODAY: NOAA forecasters say there is a 55% chance of M-class solar flares and a 15% chance of X-flares today. Sunspots AR3169 and AR3176 both pose a threat for such explosions. Neither is directly facing Earth, but they're close enough for radio blackouts and glancing-blow CMEs SpaceWeather.com
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● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555.9 km/s at 03:24 UTC on December 27 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 5

Aurora Oval
aurora-map.jpg
https://twitter.com/x/status/1607766757799858176

● Current Conditions at 04:20 UTC on December 28

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 510.7 km/sec
▪︎density: 9.87 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -2.0% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C6 at 02:56 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 89 (SN 96 Dec 27)
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