Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 03

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.3 event observed at 17:41 UTC on December 03 from new active region 13157, several C-class flares were observed from the same region.

The M1.3 event generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over


There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk: AR3152, AR3153, AR3154, AR3155 and new region AR3156

AR3156 located in the northeast (N25E61) is a large sunspot with an area of 180HM with alpha magnetic field. It has already produced a C8 flare and NOAA forecasts a 30% chance of C-class flares.



● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on December 03

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 574.9 km/sec
▪︎density: 9.09 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.9% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1.2 at 02:26 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 66 (SN 49 Dec 02)
▪︎Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal hole.

SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

Edit. I made a mistake and hit the "post replay" button and then could not edit in time. This is the updated report for December 03.

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 03

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.3 event observed at 17:41 UTC on December 03 from new active region 13157, several C-class flares were observed from the same region.

The M1.3 event generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599101249516982272

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599103515653066752

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599061560084684800

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk: AR3153, AR3154, AR3155 , AR3156 and new region AR3157

AR3152 is gone

AR3157 located in the northeast (N16E75) is a large sunspot with an area of 120HM with alpha magnetic field. It has already produced a M flare and NOAA forecasts a 25% chance of C-class flares.

SOLAR ACTIVITY ON THE EASTERN LIMB: New sunspot AR3157 doesn't look like much, but it is very active, almost constantly hurling plumes of plasma into space. This interest-compressed movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows 12 hours of action on Dec. 3rd:

Magnetically, sunspot AR3157 is connected to nearby sunspot AR3156. If one goes off, it could trigger an explosion in the other, boosting the odds of a significant flare. SpaceWeather.com

The total number of sunspots has increased to 68 (18 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 75% chance for C flares, 25% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 656 km/s at 21:14 UTC on December 03.

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on December 03

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 508.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 11.9 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.7% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 02:18 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 68 (SN 66 Dec 03)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a canyon-shaped coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 8th.

SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 05

Solar activity during the past 24 hours was at low levels with a number of minor C-Flares detected. The largest event of the period was a C2 flare at 12:40 UTC from AR3153 which continues to quietly rotate into a better Earth facing position, but is for the most part stable.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599576223289552896

IS SOLAR CYCLE 25 ABOUT TO WAKE UP? For the past few months, solar activity has been sluggish with few strong solar flares and no CMEs able to land a direct hit on Earth. Now the sun may be waking up. This picture taken by Eduardo Schaberger Poupeau of Rafaela, Argentina, shows why

"The full disk of our star is suddenly showing a lot of activity," says Poupeau.

There are five big sunspots and two long filaments of magnetism--all facing Earth and poised to erupt. Of special interest is sunspot AR3157, which underwent a period of hyperactivity over the weekend before it turned toward Earth. Odds favor a geoeffective eruption this week. SpaceWeather.com ​

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk: AR3153, AR3154, AR3155 , AR3156, AR3157 and new region AR3158


AR3158 located on the northeast (N24E06) is a group of 6 sunspots with an area of 20 millionths of hemisphere and a beta magnetic complexity. NOAA forecasts 15% probability of generating C-class flares

AR3153 (S27E33) continues to grow and currently has an area of 1080HM. This region is composed of 13 sunspots with a beta magnetic field and according to NOAA has a 50% probability of generating C-class flares.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599578670884040704

The total number of sunspots has increased to 93 (45 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 85% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535.7 km/s at 13:06 UTC on December 04. The maximum planetary index of the period was kp4

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 06:03 UTC on December 05

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 518 km/sec
▪︎density: 9.58 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.7% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 05:30 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 93 (SN 68 Dec 04)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a canyon-shaped coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 8th.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599607202024542209

SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 07

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest event of the period was a C1.1 flare at 23:59 on December 06 from AR3157

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk: AR3153, AR3155 , AR3156, AR3157, AR3158, and new regions AR3159 and AR3160


AR3159 located on the northeast (N30E65) is a sunspot with an area of 20HM and alfa magnetic field. It poses no threat for strong solar flares

AR3160 located on the northeast (N26E72) is a sunspot with an area of 30HM and alfa magnetic field. It poses no threat for strong solar flares

The total number of sunspots has increased to 123 (53 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 90% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504.6 km/s at 20:02 UTC on December 06. The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 1

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599784912067837954

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600152333106745348

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599425796107403264

SOLAR WIND, INCOMING: A high speed stream of solar wind is approaching Earth. ETA: Dec. 8th or 9th. The gaseous material is flowing from a canyon-shaped hole in the sun's atmosphere. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible when the solar wind arrives. SpaceWeather.com

● Current Conditions at 05:20 UTC on December 07

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 320 km/sec
▪︎density: 6.24 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.2% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 00:01 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 123 (SN 89 Dec 06)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a canyon-shaped coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 8th.
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 08

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5.8 event observed at 13:04 UTC on December 07 from Region 3157 (N16E19)

There are multiple filaments (dark striations) in both the northern and southern hemispheres, and prominent prominences on the southeastern (lower left) and southwestern (lower right) margins.


Prominence in the southwest of the sun

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600610720281927680

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk: AR3153, AR3155 , AR3156, AR3157, AR3158, AR3159 and AR3160

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 107 (47 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 90% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to storm levels for the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 12:34 UTC. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached at 13:04 UTC on December 07 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 20:45 UTC on December 07. The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 5

CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of Dec. 7th. CIRs are transition zones between streams of fast and slow solar wind; they contain shock waves that can spark geomagnetic storms. This CIR caused a minor G1-class storm around 1300 UT. More storms may be in the offing when the fast solar wind following the CIR arrives on Dec. 8th or 9th SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600519577968025600

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600728051545157633

● Current Conditions at 06:00 UTC on December 08

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 487.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 11.3 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.5% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C5 at 13:04 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 107 (SN 123 Dec 07)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a canyon-shaped coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 9th.
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 09

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1.4 event observed at 21:09 UTC on December 08 from AR3153 (S17W20).

Farside activity

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600953471905062912

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601040120408289280

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk: AR3153, AR3155 , AR3156, AR3157, AR3158, AR3159 and AR3160 and new region AR3161

AR3161 located on the northwest (N26W01) is a group of 5 sunspots with an area of 10HM and a beta magnetic field. NOAA forecasts 15% probability of generating C-class flares

AR3153 and AR3157 have developed beta-gamma magnetic fields

The magnetic field of AR3157 is developing a mixture of polarities with "+" and "-" bumping together. This could lead to magnetic reconnection and Earth-directed solar flares. SpaceWeather.com

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 115 (35 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 85% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 610 km/s at 16:36 UTC on December 08. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 23:10 UTC on December 08
The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 4

THE SOLAR WIND HAS ARRIVED: Earth is entering a stream of high speed (> 500 km/s) solar wind flowing from a canyon-shaped hole in the sun's atmosphere. This could cause minor G1-class geomagnetic storms and auroras around the Arctic Circle. SpaceWeather.com

● Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601027071740104704

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600865784175247364

● Current Conditions at 04:33 UTC on December 09

▪︎Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 549.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 10.05 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.4% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: B8 at 23:22 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 115 (SN 107 Dec 08)

SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Zzartemis]

Not sure if this is something that should make our ears perk up. In this short video, Ben of Suspicious Observers, talks about an increasing amount of dust, in the solar system, and wonders if this is dust that accompanies the approaching galactic sheet, which he called the Wave back in beginning of January, 2020.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 1O

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6.1 event observed at 14:13 UTC from a sunspot not grouped in a region.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601191674004140032

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601426417765748736

AN ERUPTING MAGNETIC FILAMENT: Yesterday, Dec. 9th, a magnetic filament in the sun's southern hemisphere erupted, possibly hurling a fraction of itself into space: movie. SOHO coronagraph movies are inconclusive. A faint CME might have left the blast site. If so, it could jolt Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 12th. SpaceWeather.com

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk: AR3153, AR3156, AR3157, AR3158, AR3159 and AR3160, AR3161 and new region AR3162

AR3155 is gone. AR3162 located on the southeast (S13E56) is a sunspot with an area of 60HM and alfa magnetic field. It poses no threat for strong solar flares. AR3153 (S17W36) has reached an area of 750HM

Big sunspot AR3153 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. However, a more interesting sunspot is circled. The unnumbered active region has been crackling with C-class flares since it emerged yesterday. SpaceWeather.com

The total number of sunspots has increased to 116 (47 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 85% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 556.5 km/s at 04:48 UTC on December 09
The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 4

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601214167687405568

● Current Conditions at 06:20 UTC on December 10

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 463.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 6.28 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.6% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 04:34 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 116 (SN 115 Dec 09)

SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 11

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Several C-class flares from new region AR3163 (S20E64) The largest solar event of the period was a C5.4 event observed at 10:44 UTC .

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601566738407395329

This explosion might hit earth on December 12th

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601655635132567553

THIS EXPLOSION DEFINITELY WON'T: The sun just shot an interestingly narrow stream of plasma into space. SOHO coronagraphs watched it jet away from the southwestern limb of the sun on Dec. 9th:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601040120408289280

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601041935078068224

This was no ordinary CME. The jet was less than 50 thousand km wide at its base, but it stretched more than 15 million km into space. Coherent blob-like structures can be seen traveling down the stream as the eruption progresses.

The underlying physics of this event is a bit of a mystery. It might be a strangely skinny helmet streamer. Helmet streamers are magnetic arches rooted in the sun, which are sculpted and stretched by the solar wind. They're normally 10 to 100 times wider than this one, though. SpaceWeather.com​

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3153, AR3156, AR3157, AR3158, AR3160, AR3161, AR3162 and new region AR3163

AR3159 is gone and AR3163 located in the southeast (S20E64) is a group of five sunspots with an area of 130HM and beta magnetic field. According to NOAA this region has a 75% probability for class C flares.

The total number of sunspots has increased to 111 (43 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 95% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 00:37 UTC on December 10 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 3

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1601699024062451712

● Current Conditions at 05:40 UTC on December 11

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 453.8 km/sec
▪︎density: 6.59 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.6% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1.1 at 02:30 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 111 (SN 116 Dec 10)

SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY 25 REPORT DECEMBER 12

Solar activity remains at low levels for now with only minor C-Flares detected during the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3.5 flare at 00:35 UTC on December 12 from AR3156. An isolated M-Flare is still a possibility with AR3153, AR3157 and AR3163 being the most likely to produce such an event according to NOAA.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602109713398767616

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602113080544092161

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602082844939010048

There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3153, AR3156, AR3157, AR3160, AR3161, AR3162, AR3163 and new regions on the southern hemisphere AR3164, AR3165, AR3166

●AR3158 is gone

●AR3164 located in the southwest (S18W32) is a group of five sunspots with an area of 20HM and beta magnetic field. It poses no threat for strong solar flares.

●AR3165 located in the southwest (S18W10) is a group of four sunspots with an area of 20HM and beta magnetic field. It poses no threat for strong solar flares.

●AR3166 located in the southeast (S07E45) is a group of four sunspots with an area of 20HM and beta magnetic field. It poses no threat for strong solar flares.


These 10 sunspots groups represent the largest number of active regions so far during the young Solar Cycle 25. However, all ten solar regions have relatively stable magnetic fields. It is possible that solar activity will remain low despite the high number of sunspots.

The total number of sunspots has increased to 141 (53 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 90% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517.7 km/s at 17:43 UTC on December 11 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 3

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602136218866941953

Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole could reach Earth on Dec. 18th

● Current Conditions at 05:15 UTC on December 12

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 420.2 km/sec
▪︎density: 2.87 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.1% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C3.2 at 00:35 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 141 (SN 111 Dec 11)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 13

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Few solar flares were generated. The largest solar event was a C3.5 flare at 00:35 on December 12

There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3153, AR3156, AR3157, AR3160, AR3162, AR3163, AR3164, AR3165, AR3166

AR3161 is gone and big AR3153 will be leaving the solar disk soon.

NINE SUNSPOT GROUPS: Today, there are nine distinct sunspot groups crossing the face of the sun--the greatest number so far during young Solar Cycle 25. This would seem to boost the odds of a solar flare. However, all nine sunspots have stable magnetic fields disinclined to explode. Solar activity may remain low despite the high sunspot count. SpaceWeather.com

The total number of sunspots has increased to 142 (52 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 90% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

THE EXTENDED SOLAR CYCLE: So you thought you knew the solar cycle? Think again. A new paper published in Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences confirms that there is more to solar activity than the well-known 11-year sunspot cycle. Data from Stanford University's Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) reveal two solar cycles happening at the same time, and neither is 11 years long.​

"We call it 'the Extended Solar Cycle,'" says lead author Scott McIntosh of NCAR. "There are two overlapping patterns of activity on the sun, each lasting about 17 years."

Solar physicists have long suspected this might be true. References to "overlapping solar cycles" can be found in research literature as far back as 1903.

Wilcox data show not one but two co-existing patterns of activity. They overlap in a way any music major will recognize: The sun is "singing rounds." A round is a musical piece in which multiple voices sing the same melody, but start the song at different times. Imagine a group of children singing "Row, row, row your boat." Half of the kids start first; the other half start 5 syllables later. The sun is doing the same thing with its magnetic fields, except instead of 5 syllables ("row, row, row your boat") the gap is a little more than 5 years. SpaceWeather.com

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500.1 km/s at 15:50 UTC on December 12 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 3

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on December 13

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 488.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.24 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.1% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 04:46 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 142 (SN 141 Dec 12)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

THE EXTENDED SOLAR CYCLE: So you thought you knew the solar cycle? Think again. A new paper published in Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences confirms that there is more to solar activity than the well-known 11-year sunspot cycle. Data from Stanford University's Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) reveal two solar cycles happening at the same time, and neither is 11 years long.​

"We call it 'the Extended Solar Cycle,'" says lead author Scott McIntosh of NCAR. "There are two overlapping patterns of activity on the sun, each lasting about 17 years."

Solar physicists have long suspected this might be true. References to "overlapping solar cycles" can be found in research literature as far back as 1903.

Wilcox data show not one but two co-existing patterns of activity. They overlap in a way any music major will recognize: The sun is "singing rounds." A round is a musical piece in which multiple voices sing the same melody, but start the song at different times. Imagine a group of children singing "Row, row, row your boat." Half of the kids start first; the other half start 5 syllables later. The sun is doing the same thing with its magnetic fields, except instead of 5 syllables ("row, row, row your boat") the gap is a little more than 5 years. SpaceWeather.com

Some images from the above cited paper :

Sunspot evolution since 1996. Comparing and contrasting the evolution of the total sunspot number provided [panel (A)], the spatio-temporal distribution of sunspots provided by the US Air Force and NOAA [panel (B)], and a data-driven schematic of the Hale Cycle evolution constructed by M2014, the band-o-gram [panel (C)].

WSO Inferred toroidal magnetic field evolution since 1976. Comparing and contrasting the evolution of the total sunspot number [panel (A)], with the spatio-temporal distribution of the derived toroidal magnetic field component (central) and polar magnetic field components (above north and below south) derived from daily WSO observations [panel (B)]. Note that the toroidal field panel is in its native sine latitude format (Lo et al., 2010). The horizontal dashed lines indicate a latitude of 55° while the vertical dashed lines shown in each panel mark the times of the Hale Cycle termination events studied by M2019.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 14

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Few solar flares were generated. The largest solar event was a C3 flare at 23:25 on December 13 from active region 13153 located on the southwest (S15W89)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602860567659970560

There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3153, AR3156, AR3157, AR3160, AR3162, AR3163, AR3164, AR3165, AR3166 and new region AR3167

AR3167 located on the northwest (N20W00) is a group of five sunspots with an area of 180HM. Its magnetic field is beta and according to NOAA it harbors energy for C-class flares (50% chance)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602766296570945536

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602861869743628288

The total number of sunspots has increased to 159 (59 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 85% chance for C flares, 20% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 514.2 km/s at 05:50 UTC on December 13 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 2

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on December 14

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 0
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 381.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 2.62 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.3% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C6 at 04:11 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 159 (SN 142 Dec 13)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 15

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. 10 M-class flares were detected

● M2.4 at 07:46 UTC on Dec/14 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean
● M1.1 at 08:35 UTC on Dec/14 from AR3153, it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean
● M1.3 at 07:46 UTC on Dec/14 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over east Africa
● M1.1 at 12:06 UTC on Dec/14 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over west Africa
● M4.1 at 12:35 UTC on Dec/14 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean
● M2.9 at 14:54 UTC on Dec/14 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South America
● M6.3 at 14:55 UTC on Dec/14 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South America
● M2.2 at 16:04 UTC on Dec/14 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South America
● M2.2 at 04:06 UTC on Dec/15 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean
● M4.5 at 04:09 UTC on Dec/15 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603079795721768960

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603088288264265740

INTENSIFYING SOLAR FLARE ACTIVITY: New sunspot AR3165 is crackling with M-class solar flares. The strongest so far, an M6-class explosion (Dec. 14 @ 1442 UT) caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean. If current trends continue, the sunspot could produce an X-flare by the end of the day. SpaceWeather.com

There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3153, AR3156, AR3157, AR3160, AR3162, AR3163, AR3164, AR3165, AR3166, AR3167 and new region AR3168

AR3168 located on the southeast (S16E68) is a sunspot with an area of 90HM. Its magnetic field is beta and according to NOAA it harbors energy for C-class flares (25% chance)

The total number of sunspots has increased to 165 (64 of these are grouped into 11 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 75% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 03:36 UTC on December 14 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 2

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603038853060825094

THE MYSTERY OF SPIRAL AURORAS

Compared to other forms, spiral auroras are rare, and sky watchers are always delighted to see them. But what causes them? Researchers have been debating the issue for more than 50 years.

A few things are known. Spiral auroras rotate clockwise in the northern hemisphere, and counterclockwise in the southern hemisphere. They can be as small as 15 km, or as large as 1300 km. And they're usually green.

Over the years, two completely different theories have vied to explain the vortices. Theory #1 (circa 1976) says that magnetic fields in Earth's upper atmosphere are sometimes twisted by powerful Birkeland currents. Auroras follow magnetic field lines, so a twisted field would naturally create a twisted aurora. Theory #2 (circa 1996) counters that spiral auroras are more likely Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities in Earth's ionosphere. This is the same type of instability that makes beautiful spiral clouds in the lower atmosphere, so it might work in the aurora zone as well.

Now there's a new idea just published in Sept. 2022: Theory #3 says that spiral auroras are created by a "tearing mode instability." This is a type of plasma instability that can occur when magnetic fields re-connnect and explode.

The model produces spirals of about the right size, and they rotate in the correct direction. If it is correct, explosive magnetic reconnection powers the auroras while the tearing instability twists the lights into a spiral. SpaceWeather.com ​

● Current Conditions at 01:40 UTC on December 15

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 326.1 km/sec
▪︎density: 4.01 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.5% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M4 at 22:06 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 165 (SN 159 Dec 14)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 16

Solar activity continues at high levels. Several C-class flares and M-class flares mainly from AR3165 located on the southwest (S19W70)

● M1.6 at 01:37 UTC on Dec/15 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean
● M2.4 at 07:07 UTC on Dec/15 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean
● M1.0 at 07:58 UTC on Dec/15 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Indian Ocean
● M1.5 at 10:16 UTC on Dec/15 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Africa
● M1.6 at 10:30 UTC on Dec/15 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Africa
● M1.1 at 16:44 UTC on Dec/15 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South America
● M2.0 at 16:56 UTC on Dec/15 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South America
● M5.7 at 22:40 UTC on Dec/15 from AR3165 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603525077034799111

The show of the M-Flares on December 14th

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603223239328669697

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603458625753808913

There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3153, AR3156, AR3160, AR3162, AR3163, AR3165, AR3166, AR3167, AR3168

INCREASING SOLAR ACTIVITY: Yesterday, fast-growing sunspot AR3165 unleashed a remarkable series of M-class solar flares. All day long, no more than a few hours went by without a significant explosion:

During the fusillade, the sunspot strobed Earth with more than 10 pulses of extreme ultraviolet and X-radiation. The resulting ionization of Earth's upper atmosphere caused a series of shortwave radio blackouts rolling across all longitudes. Aviators and mariners may have noticed poor reception at frequencies below 15 MHz.​

Many of the flares hurled CMEs into space. Preliminary coronagraph data from SOHO suggest that all of them will miss Earth, passing upstream of our planet. Maybe next time? Another large sunspot, AR3163, has an unstable 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that poses a threat for M-class flares--and it is directly facing Earth. SpaceWeather.com​

The total number of sunspots has increased to 174 (64 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecast for the next 24h is 99% chance for C flares, 60% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486.5 km/s at 18:40 UTC on December 15 The maximum planetary index of the period was kp 2

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 03:10 UTC on December 16

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 328 km/sec
▪︎density: 3.63 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.4% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M5 at 22:40 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 174 (SN 165 Dec 15)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com