Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 15_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. AR3282 (N11E52) produced two M-class solar flares

● M1.1 event observed at 16:18 UTC on April 14 it caused a minor R1 radio blackout over Central and South America.
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● M1.6 event observed at 23:27 UTC on April 14 it caused a minor R1 radio blackout over South Pacific Ocean

There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3272, AR3273, AR3275, AR3276, AR3278, AR3279, AR3280, AR3281, AR3282 AR3277 is gone

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 153 (74 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 40% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

AR3280 (S09W44) is now a complex of 20 sunspots, its magnetic complexity has grown to beta-gamma and its size has increased to 180MH. Sunspot AR3280 poses a threat for M-class solar flares, however this active region will be leaving the solar disk this weekend.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 22:17 UTC on April 13 Maximum planetary index Kp 3

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.19 nT South
aurora-map.jpg

● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on April 15

▪︎ Geospace unsettled
▪︎ Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 3
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 345 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 4.2 p/cm3 (low density)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: +1.0% Elevated
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 23:27 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 153 (SN 154 April 14)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)

SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 16_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 09:14 UTC from Region 3282 (N11E43, 400MH, beta )

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3272, AR3273, AR3275, AR3276, AR3279, AR3280, AR3281, AR3282, AR3278 is gone

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 151 (71 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

AR3280 (N07W48) continues with an beta-gamma magnetic configuration while its size has grown to 240MH. AR3280 harbors energy for M-class solar flares.

AR3281 (S24E44) has developed a beta-gamma magnetic complexity with an area of 310MH. This sunspot is on the southeast and next week it will be facing the Earth, unlike AR3280, which will leave the solar disk this weekend. AR3282 harbors energy for M-class solar flares.

Both regions changed NOAA's forecast regarding the possibility of M-class solar flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 09:10 UTC on April 15 Maximum planetary index Kp 3

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.66 nT North
aurora-map.jpg


● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on April 16

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎ Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 1
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 379.5 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 69.3 p/cm³ (Very high density) at 04:38 UTC First time I reported this phenomenon. Such a high density. It would be necessary to investigate what happened here. Graphic from SpaceWeatherlive. com
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A first peak reached almost 25 p/cm³ at about 03:20 UTC.

▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -0.3% Below Average
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C3 at 00:44 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 151 (SN 153 April 15)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)

SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
▪︎ density: 69.3 p/cm³ (Very high density) at 04:38 UTC First time I reported this phenomenon. Such a high density. It would be necessary to investigate what happened here. Graphic from SpaceWeatherlive. com
I also wondered where these shockwaves came from.
Screenshot_2023-04-16_08-07-28.pngScreenshot_2023-04-16_08-09-03.pngScreenshot_2023-04-16_08-09-25.pngScreenshot_2023-04-16_08-10-15.png

I don't remember any big flares or CMEs in the last 3 days and we're not really in a high speed steam either(?) Maybe from the occasional M-class flares that we had.
 
I don't remember any big flares or CMEs in the last 3 days and we're not really in a high speed steam either(?) Maybe from the occasional M-class flares that we had.

According to SpaceWeather

POSSIBLE EARTH-DIRECTED CME: Yesterday, April 15th around 10:30 UT, a magnetic filament on the sun exploded. The twisting blast may have hurled a CME toward Earth. NOAA analysts are evaluating the possibility now.

But It is too early for it to generate shockwaves. It is a mystery.

I already asked about the high proton density to the experts. I hope they want to answer.
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 17_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 17:44 UTC on April from a unnumbered sunspot.

There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3272, AR3273, AR3275, AR3276, AR3279, AR3280, AR3281, AR3282 and new region AR3283
hmi200.jpg
The total number of sunspots has increased to 155 (65 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 50% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

AR3280 (S08W69) continues with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration, however its size has decreased to 200MH ON the other hand, AR3281 (S24E31) Continues with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration with an area of 300MH. So far both regions have only produced C-class solar flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. According to SpaceWeatherlive, solar wind speed reached a peak of 1196 km/s at 00:34 UTC on April 16 Maximum planetary index Kp 2

It is quite possible that this VERY high speed solar wind is the cause of a very high proton density per cubic centimeter that was recorded yesterday.
density: 69.3 p/cm³ (Very high density) at 04:38

These were some of the other density peaks recorded yesterday

At around 04:40 UTC 50 p/cm³ then it dropped to 0.42 p/cm³
chrome_screenshot_1681621332310.png

At around 05:30 UTC 100 p/cm³ was recorded, then it dropped to 24.63 p/cm³.
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At around 00:00 UTC on April 17 50 p/cm³ then it dropped to 6.71 p/cm³ at 02:11 UTC
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These peaks were observed by other users of the DSCOVR spacecraft measurements.

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I did not hear back from the experts I asked about this phenomenon. In SpaceWeatherlive a user answered that it was due to a bug in the DSCOVR system.

Commonly, the solar wind density graph looks like this
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After geomagnetic storms, the density may go to zero, not rise, as well as the neutron count.

According to NOAA

Solar Proton Events at Earth can occur throughout the solar cycle but are most frequent in solar maximum years. SPEs result from fast coronal mass ejections. During an SPE, satellites experience dramatically increased bombardment by high-energy particles. Fluxes of particles with energies ≥ 10 MeV can reach 43,500 protons/cm2/sec/ster. Single Event Upset rates in spacecraft electronics increase with high fluxes since there is a higher likelihood of impact on a sensitive location. In addition, these high energy particles can access the polar ionosphere and create an enhanced region of ionization (called the ‘D-Region’) which interferes with HF radio communication in these areas.
High-energy particles can reach Earth anywhere from 20 minutes to many hours following the initiating solar event. The particle energy spectrum and arrival time seen by satellites varies with the location and nature of the event on the solar disk.

SPE may also come from cosmic rays from the Galaxy.

Protons also have extrasolar origin from galactic cosmic rays, where they make up about 90% of the total particle flux. These protons often have higher energy than solar wind protons, and their intensity is far more uniform and less variable than protons coming from the Sun, the production of which is heavily affected by solar proton events such as coronal mass ejections. Wikipedia

In my opinion this phenomenon was not due to a bug in DSCOVR this happened because of the speed that the solar wind reached or it has an extrasolar origin.

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.04 nT North
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 05:30 UTC on April 17

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎ Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 2
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 372.5 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 6.49 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -0.1% Below Average
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C4 at 04:16 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 155 (SN 151 April 16)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)

SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 18_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 06:33 UTC on April 17 from Region 3281 (S22E14).

There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3272, AR3273, AR3275, AR3276, AR3279, AR3280, AR3281, AR3282, AR3283 and new region AR3284

The total number of sunspots has increased to 162 (73 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 45% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

AR3282 located on the northeast (N11E11) has developed sunspots with gamma complexity and now its magnetic field is classified as beta-gamma, its current size is 380MH and the total number of spots that compose this region is 21. On the other hand AR3280 (S07W85) is decaying although it retains its beta-gamma magnetic field. Finally, AR3281 (S24E18) continues to obtain small sunspots, however, its area has decreased to 160MH its magnetic field remains as beta-gamma.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. According to SpaceWeatherlive, solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s (Moderate speed) at 16:37 UTC on April 17 Maximum planetary index Kp 2

Incoming coronal mass ejections

Aurora Oval Bz: 3.95 nT North
aurora-map (1).jpg

● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on April 18

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎ Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 1
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 435 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 2.73 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: +0.1% (Slightly Elevated)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 04:03 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 162 (SN 155 April 17)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)

SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 19_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 15:29 UTC on April 18 from Region 3280 (S08W94).


MAGNETIC FILAMENTS ON THE SUN: Not every dark object on the sun is a sunspot. There are also magnetic filaments. When amateur astronomer Michael Borman of Evansville, Indiana, photographed the sun on April 17th, he counted more than a dozen of them:​
filaments_strip.jpg
Magnetic filaments are narrow tubes of magnetism filled with plasma suspended above the surface of the sun. They look dark because the plasma inside is a little cooler than the underlying star. Magnetic filaments are famously unstable, and they often erupt, hurling CMEs into space.

The most important filament in Borman's photo is the extremely long one stretching across the sun's high-northern hemisphere. Parts of it have been exploding for days like this on April 15th and this on April 17th. Both of those sample eruptions propelled CMEs into space, albeit not toward Earth. SpaceWeather.com

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3272, AR3275, AR3276, AR3279, AR3281, AR3282, AR3283, AR3284,
hmi200.gif

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 140 (60 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 40% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

AR3280, AR3281, AR3282 have lost their gamma component. All regions now have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 14:59 UTC, solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 20:33 UTC on April 18 Maximum planetary index Kp 4

Incoming coronal mass ejections
CME IMPACT FAILS TO SPARK A STORM: A CME struck Earth's magnetic field today, April 18th, at 1401 UT. The impact did not spark a geomagnetic storm despite some strong south-pointing magnetic fields in the CME's wake. The CME may have come from a twisting filament eruption on April 15th. Analysts thought that CME would miss Earth, but the timing of today's strike is about right if the April 15th eruption indeed had an Earth-directed component. SpaceWeather.com
Aurora Oval Bz: 2.47 nT North
aurora-map.jpg

● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on April 19

▪︎ Geospace unsettled
▪︎ Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 3
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 516.2 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 6.98 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -0.8% (Below Average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 22:56 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 140 (SN 162 April 18)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)

SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 20_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3.9 event observed at 08:41 UTC on April 19 from Region 3272 (S24W88).

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3272, AR3275, AR3276, AR3279, AR3281, AR3282, AR3283, AR3284

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 124 (44 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.All regions now have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 11:15 UTC, solar wind speed reached a peak of 615 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 21:44 UTC on April 19
Maximum planetary index Kp 4

MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters say that minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on April 20th when a CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. The CME was hurled in our direction by the eruption of a solar magnetic filament on April 16th. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: 9.78 nT North
aurora-map (1).jpg


● Current Conditions at 03:30 UTC on April 20

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎ Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 1
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 420.6 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 5.33 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -2.0% (Below Average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 23:48 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 124 (SN 140 April 19)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)

SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
A magnificent shot of a 100,000 km high plasma fountain from an amateur astronomer

Argentine amateur astronomer Eduardo Schaberger took a magnificent picture of the solar prominence of the polar crown, which was 100,000 km high.

The plasma is in motion under the influence of the magnetic field that ejected it, and it is sent back at a speed of about 36,000 km/h. Scientists still cannot explain all the mechanisms of this phenomenon.

Prominences are huge plasma emissions from the surface of the Sun, which can reach heights of up to several hundred thousand kilometers. They are formed as a result of magnetic disturbances in the Sun, which lead to the exit of magnetic lines from the surface and the formation of local magnetic fields. Under the influence of these fields, the plasma begins to move along them and form prominences.

Despite the fact that scientists have been studying prominences for a long time, the mechanisms of their formation and evolution are still not fully understood. One of the main problems is the complexity of modeling magnetic fields in the Sun and their interaction with plasma. In addition, prominences can interact with each other and with the surrounding plasma, which also complicates their study.

 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 21_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3.6 event observed at 09:22 UTC on April 20 from Region 3281 (S23W22).


There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3276, AR3279, AR3281, AR3282, AR3283, AR3284

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 97 (37 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.All regions now have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours, solar wind speed reached a peak of 1083 km/s (Very high speed, recorded by DSCOVR spacecraft) at 05:45 UTC on April 20
Maximum planetary index Kp 3

At 03:16 UTC on April 21, a new high density peak of the solar wind was recorded, reaching 116.56 protons/cm³ At 03:50 the density is 3.92 p/cm³. This coincides with the peak solar wind speed mentioned above.

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Coronal holes are known to be responsible for high velocity solar winds... but there are no significant coronal holes facing the Earth at this time... so what is going on? What source is sending us a high velocity solar wind stream?
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The Dependence of the Peak Velocity of High-Speed Solar Wind Streams as Measured in the Ecliptic by ACE and the STEREO satellites on the Area and Co-latitude of Their Solar Source Coronal Holes

For a long time, it is well known that the peak velocity of high-speed solar wind streams, that is, supersonic plasma streams transcending our solar system, as measured near Earth is correlated with the area of its source coronal hole, that is, its source region on the Sun. However, the three-dimensional nature of this correlation is often neglected. We show that the position of the coronal hole on the Sun has a strong influence on the speeds of the high-speed solar wind streams we measure near Earth, since the position of the coronal hole determines the propagation direction of the high-speed solar wind stream into the heliosphere. When the coronal hole is located near the solar equator, we measure the highest velocities since the high-speed stream is propagating directly toward the Earth, whereas when the coronal hole is located near the poles, it has even a high chance to miss the Earth completely. Therefore, the position of the coronal hole on the Sun is an important parameter to predict the properties of high-speed solar wind streams near Earth and there geomagnetic consequences.

Aurora Oval Bz: 4.19 nT North
aurora-map.jpg

● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on April 21

▪︎ Geospace unsettled
▪︎ Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 3
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 383.2 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2.71 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -2.1% (Below Average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 22:30 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 97 (SN 124 April 20)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)

SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 22_2023

EARTH-DIRECTED EXPLOSION ON THE SUN (UPDATED): A magnetic filament snaking across the sun's southern hemisphere erupted today, hurling a CME toward Earth. This movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the explosion's extreme ultraviolet glow:
filament_anim_purple_strip.gif
The US Air Force is reporting Type II and Type IV solar radio bursts--both indicative of a CME. The radio bursts are natural emissions produced by shock waves preceding the CME as it passes through the sun's atmosphere. Drift rates in the Type II burst suggest a CME velocity of about 580 km/s (1.3 million mph).​
Update: The explosion definitely hurled a CME toward Earth. SOHO images confirm that it is heading straight for us:​
halo_cme_crop_opt.gif
The CME will probably reach Earth on April 24th. G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible when it arrives. A refined forecast will become available this weekend when NOAA forecasters finish modeling the CME.

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The magnetic filament eruption coincided with an M-class flare from region 3283. The M1.7 occurred at 18:12 UTC on April 21 from active region 3283 (S22W18) it caused a minor R1 radio blackout over North America.
20230421_223522.jpg

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3276, AR3279, AR3281, AR3282, AR3283, AR3284 and new region AR3285
hmi200.jpg
The total number of sunspots has increased to 114 (45 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

AR3282 has again developed a beta-gamma magnetic field and its size is 410MH. The region is located in the northwest (N11W42) and will leave the solar disk this weekend.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours, solar wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 20:36 UTC on April 21 Maximum planetary index Kp 3


Aurora Oval Bz: 2.33 nT North
aurora-map.jpg
● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on April 22

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎ Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 2
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 397.5 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 1.14 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -1.4% (Below Average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C4 at 01:48 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 114 (SN 97 April 21)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)

SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

Mystery solved?

At 03:16 UTC on April 21, a new high density peak of the solar wind was recorded, reaching 116.56 protons/cm³ At 03:50 the density is 3.92 p/cm³. This coincides with the peak solar wind speed mentioned above.

I asked three experts about the cause of the very high speed and density in the solar wind recorded in recent days by the DSCOVR spacecraft.

Commonly solar wind speed and density are associated with CMEs or coronal holes, but recent CMEs have been very weak and there are no significant coronal holes. (Until this morning when the magnetic filament event and the M-class solar flare happened).

here is the opinion of Halo CME via inbox on Twitter.
Just a noise from the DSCOVR Faraday cup instrument. It may or may not be removed later for science quality data archive. I am not a big fan of DSCOVR

NASA Space Weather Prediction Center shows the peaks also

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