Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 24_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 1213 UTC from Region 3311 (N18E05) it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over North Africa and Europe.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1660991166291099652

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There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3310, AR3311 AR3312, AR3313 and new region AR3315,
AR3308 and AR3314 are gone.

Total number of sunspots remains at 97 (69 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 60% chance for M flares and 20% chance for X flares. Sunspot AR3311 has a beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.

SUBSIDING CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters have decreased the odds of an X-class flare from 30% (yesterday) to 20% (today). This is in response to decay in the magnetic field of sunspot AR3311, currently the biggest threat for flares on the solar disk. 20% is still plenty, though, for an X-class explosion. SpaceWeather.com

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 626 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 02:57 UTC on May 23. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 22:58 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.98 nT North

● Current Conditions at 03:20 UTC on May 24

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 578.7 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 1.11 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -0.6% (below average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C3 at 21:18 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 97 (SN 97 May 23)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 25_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.8 event observed at 17:21 UTC on May 24 from Region 3311 (N18W08). It caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Central America and Mexico

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661428145055039520

A SOLAR STORM AND THE PLEIADES: Before the launch of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) in 1995, astronomers had never seen anything like this. Behold, a solar storm passing directly in front of the Pleiades:​

​

SOHO recorded this rare conjunction on May 21st. An erupting filament of magnetism near the sun's north pole propelled the CME into space just as the Seven Sisters were passing by. Electra, Taygete, Maia, Celaeno, Alcyone, Sterope, and Merope spent nearly three hours shining through the translucent solar storm.​

When SOHO left Earth almost 30 years ago, it carried the first realtime coronagraph into space. Coronagraphs are devices that create an artificial eclipse, blocking the glare of the sun to reveal nearby stars, planets, and comets. No telescope on Earth could see something as faint as the Pleiades only a few degrees from the sun, but SOHO does it all the time. SpaceWeather.com​

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3310, AR3311 AR3312, AR3313, AR3314, AR3315,

Total number of sunspots has increased to 153 (93 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. Sunspot AR3311 is decaying now it has a beta-gamma magnetic field

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 609.3 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 23:22 UTC on May 24.

Aurora Oval Bz: -3.4 nT South


● Current Conditions at 05:20 UTC on May 25

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 552.8 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 0.8 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -0.2% (below average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C6 at 04:49 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 153 (SN 97 May 24)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
SpaceWeatherlive..com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 26_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.1 event observed at 14:46 UTC on May 25 from Region 3312 (S24W12) it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over North Atlantic Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661750493755080705

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661861819454042119

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3310, AR3311 AR3312, AR3313, AR3314, AR3315,

NEW FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT: Yesterday, sunspot AR3315 was almost invisible. Today it is four times wider than Earth. The fast-growing sunspot is breaching the surface of the sun's southern hemisphere. Its rapid development could lead to explosive instabilities and solar flares. SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661847445423153153

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 121 (61 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. Sunspot AR3311 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 689 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 10:50 UTC on May 25

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.3 nT South

● Current Conditions at 03: 40 UTC on May 26

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 472.2 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 0.55 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: +0.1% (above average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 01:15 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 121 (SN 153 May 25)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Earth is insde a stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal hole

-
-SpaceWeatherlive..com
-SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661795122852364302

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 27_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.3 event observed at 23:03 UTC on May 26 from Region 3315 (S17E06) it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over North Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662242271171887106

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3310, AR3311 AR3312, AR3313, AR3314, AR3315 and new region AR3316

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662093513444450305

Total number of sunspots has increased to 127 (57 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 17:58 UTC on May 26

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.91 nT South

● Current Conditions at 03: 40 UTC on May 27

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 429.8 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 0.15 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: +0.9% (above average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 23:03 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 127 (SN 121 May 26)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
-SpaceWeatherlive..com
-SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 28_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 04:35 UTC on May 27 from Region 3314 (N15W58)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662446408132186114

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662467444701556740

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662471142295105537

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3310, AR3311 AR3312, AR3313, AR3314, AR3315, AR3316

FARSIDE SUNSPOT: There's a sunspot on the farside of the sun so large, it is affecting the way the whole sun vibrates. Helioseismic maps reveal the active region about 10 days away from turning toward Earth. This could herald a period of geoeffective solar activity in June. SpaceWeather.com​

ELLERMAN BOMBS: At the beginning of the week, sunspot AR3315 didn't exist. Now it is the biggest and most dangerous sunspot on the solar disk. Maximilian Teodorescu photographed the fast-growing active region yesterday and found it crackling with bomb-blasts:​

​

These are Ellerman bombs--magnetic explosions about one-millionth as powerful as true solar flares. A handful are circled above for reference. They are named after physicist Ferdinand Ellerman who studied the tiny blasts in the early 20th century. Of course, "tiny" is relative. A single Ellerman bomb releases about 1026 ergs of energy--equal to about 100,000 World War II atomic bombs.

Explosions like these are a sign of magnetic complexity in a sunspot. Opposite polarities bump together, reconnect, and--boom. A full-fledged flare may not be far behind.​

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 125 (55 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 55% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

Sunspot AR3315 has continued to grow (current size 620MH) becoming the largest and most dangerous sunspot on the solar disk. This sunspot region now has a beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field, while AR3311 and AR3314 have developed a beta-gamma magnetic field.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 02:50 UTC on May 27 Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05:53 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -3.63 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04: 20 UTC on May 28

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 486.9 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 0.05 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.87 nT (normal nano-Tesla valor)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: +1.3 % (above average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 21:53 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 125 (SN 127 May 27)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
-SpaceWeatherlive..com
-SpaceWeather.com

 

[Ca.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662654844476313600

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662445007792402433

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662636237096640512

Severe Thunderstorms May Hamper Memorial Day - Drought Update - Scientists Harvest Clean Free Energy

Premiered 3 hours ago

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 29_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 10:36 UTC on May 28 from Region 3315 (S17W22) it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over North Africa and Europe

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662774257372233735

SPECTACULAR ERUPTION: Yesterday, astronomers in Europe witnessed the most spectacular eruption of Solar Cycle 25 so far. "It was a spine-chilling moment for me," says Mehmet Ergün, who photographed the massive spray of plasma from his observatory in Traisen, Germany:​

​

"This was probably the biggest eruption I have ever seen," says Ergün. "Such events cannot be planned. I was lucky to be looking when it happened."​

Many observers noted the rapidity of the blast. Giorgio Rizzarelli of Trieste, Italy, says "it lasted only about one hour. Fast prominences like this are uncommon. From a movie I made I estimate its speed was comparable to that of the solar wind." Dennis Put of The Netherlands says "it was changing so rapidly, which made it very spectacular."​

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured a beginning-to-end movie of the blast:​

What exploded? We don't know. The blast site is hidden behind the sun's southeastern limb. Helioseismic maps of the sun's farside suggest a large sunspot may be located at the base of the spray. If so, it will turn toward Earth a few days from now. SpaceWeather.com​

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3310, AR3311 AR3312, AR3313, AR3314, AR3315, AR3316

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR3315 has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-class solar flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on May 28th. Any eruptions will be geoeffective because the sunspot is directly facing Earth. SpaceWeather.com

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 119 (49 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) AR3311 and AR3314 have developed a beta-gamma magnetic field.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501.8 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 00:06 UTC on May 28 Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17:25 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.95 nT North


● Current Conditions at 03: 50 UTC on May 29

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 392.4 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 1.36 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.66 nT (normal nano-Tesla valor)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: +1.3 % (above average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 00:59 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 119 (SN 125 May 28)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
-SpaceWeatherlive..com
-SpaceWeather.com

 

[Ca.]

Kīlauea volcano EQ activity increasing. Major Inflation. Cascadia Tremor uptick. Sun night 5/28/2023

https://twitter.com/x/status/1663084080429166592

Popocatépetl Volcano Continues To Erupt! - Severe Weather Threat - Albino Bison - Camas Geoglyphs

Premiered 4 hours ago

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662981604472504322

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662799263179456512

A spot on the invisible side of the Sun is the probable origin of the most intense plasma eruption of cycle 25The first image relates the effects of the explosion to the size of the Earth; the second estimates the propagation speed, of about 450 km/s

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 30_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 18:29 UTC on May 29 from Region 3315 (S16W34).

There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3310, AR3311 AR3312, AR3313, AR3314, AR3315, AR3316
and new regions AR3317, AR3318, AR3319, AR3320,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1663369911362568193

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Total number of sunspots has increased to 153 (54 of these are grouped into 11 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 40% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s (Elevated speed) at 04:27 UTC on May 29 Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16:13 UTC

Coronal holes

https://twitter.com/x/status/1663219662157496329

https://twitter.com/x/status/1663374207198035970

Aurora Oval Bz: 3.64 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04: 50 UTC on May 30

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 378.3 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 1.20 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.79 nT (normal nano-Tesla valor)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: +0.7 % (above average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C4 at 00:20 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 153 (SN 118 May 29)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
-SpaceWeatherlive..com
-SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 31_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.49 event observed at 13:38 UTC on May 30 from Region 3315 (S17W48). It caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over North Atlantic Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1663545835395883012

Region AR3310 produced a pair of M class flares on May 30. The region will leave the solar disk in a few hours

● M1.2 at 08:10 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over India
● M1.3 at 10:22 it caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Africa

https://twitter.com/x/status/1663504687847309314

https://twitter.com/x/status/1663727268793925632

SUBSIDING CHANCE OF FLARES: Dangerous sunspot AR3315 became less dangerous today. Its magnetic field has decayed, losing the delta configuration that gave it potential energy for X-class solar flares. Lesser M-class flares are still possible, though, with NOAA estimating a 40%-chance of M-flares on May 30th. SpaceWeather.com

There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3311 , AR3313, AR3314, AR3315, AR3316, AR3317, AR3318, AR3319, AR3320, and new regions AR3321,
AR3322
AR3310 and AR3312 are gone

https://twitter.com/x/status/1663631404058509314

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 144 (44 of these are grouped into 11 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 40% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s (Elevated speed) at 18:38 UTC on May 30 Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12:58 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -5.12 nT South

RARE FULL PARHELIC CIRCLE: A parhelic circle is an unforgettable sight. Thin and pale, it circles the zenith in a majestic arc, always keeping the same distance above the horizon. Two days ago, R. J Cobain saw this one over Conlig, Northern Ireland:

I was shaking as I took as many photos as I could," says Corbin. "By combining 11 photos I was able to capture the full circle."

This was part of a great display of ice halos widely seen and reported across Northern Ireland and Northern England on May 28th. A weather system blanketed the region with a rare mixture of gem-like ice crystals in wispy cirrus clouds. Sunlight shining through the crystals produced a stunning variety of forms.

A full parhelic circle is among the rarest of ice halos. It requires as many as five internal reflections from millions of individual ice crytals, all catching sunbeams simultaneously. "This was by far the best display of atmospheric optics I have ever seen," Corbin says.

more images: from Alan Fitzsimmons of Belfast, Northern Ireland; from Mike Devenport of Gateshead, UK; from Ian Lee of Carlisle, Cumbria, UK. SpaceWeather.com​

● Current Conditions at 04: 50 UTC on May 31

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 369.2 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 4.38 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 7.16 nT (normal nano-Tesla valor)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: +1.2 % (above average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 04:34 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 144 (SN 153 May 30)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
-SpaceWeatherlive..com
-SpaceWeather.com

 

[Ca.]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 31_2023

Long duration M Flare on the Sun today. Wednesday 5/31/2023

 

[Ca.]

Tropical Depression Two Forms In The Gulf - Severe Weather Threat Plains - Geomagnetic Storm Watch

Premiered 5 hours ago

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664263929537888256

Twitter removes translations
Dutch

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664257061230657536

Holidaymakers looking for sunny summer weather in Southern Europe are currently disappointed because in the countries around the Mediterranean, there are numerous showers and thunderstorms every day and it is not much warmer than normal at this time of the year.


If storms have been almost daily in the south of the country for several weeks, May 2023 has not been exceptionally stormy. 170,219 lightning strikes were detected in #France, less than in May 2022 (199,533) and much less than in May 2018 (624,140)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664344058418937856

Despite several tremors felt yesterday on the Côte d'Azur, specialists in seismic activity in #France have denied the existence of #earthquakes. According to them "it is a signal that does not come from the subsoil, but from the atmosphere."





Flashback
Solar Dynamics Observatory, on March 23rd & 24th, 2022.

14,522 frames were repaired, graded, blended & rescaled to create the footage.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JUNE 02_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6.2 event observed at 20:41 UTC on Jun 01 from Region 3323 (S09E56).

SOLAR FLARE AND RADIO BLACKOUT: A new sunspot is emerging over the sun's southeastern limb. It announced itself on May 31st with a long-duration M4-class solar flare:​

​

A pulse of extreme ultraviolet radiation ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean almost perfectly centered over Hawaii. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal below 30 MHz for as much as an hour after 2252 UT.

Designated AR3323, the sunspot is now turning toward Earth, and it appears to be growing more complex. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more M-flares on June 1st. SpaceWeather.com

There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3315, AR3316, AR3317, AR3318, AR3319, AR3320, AR3321, AR3322, AR3323

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664239807692779520

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 143 (42 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 45% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares.

AR3319 (S19W42 size 240MH) and AR3323 (S09E54 size 170MH) possess a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy to produce M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached: 02:45 UTC on June 01 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 1616 UTC Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05:31 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.73 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04: 40 UTC on June 02

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 399 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 4.26 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3.8 nT (normal nano-Tesla valor)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: +0.6 % (above average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 02:41 UTC Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664480671228674048

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664463116246106115

▪︎ Sunspot number: 143 (SN 147 June 01)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
-SpaceWeatherlive..com
-SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUNE 03_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.5 event observed at 02:41 UTC from Region 3324 (N15W12)

▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 02:41 UTC Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean

There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3315, AR3316, AR3318, AR3319, AR3320, AR3321, AR3322, AR3323, and new regions AR3324, AR3325, AR3326.

Total number of sunspots has increased to 147 (48 of these are grouped into 11 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 45% chance for M flares and 15% chance for X flares.

AR3319 (S19W42 size 240MH) and AR3323 (S09E54 size 170MH) possess a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy to produce M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 21:18 UTC June 01 Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23:51 UTC

MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (UPDATED): NOAA forecasters say that minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on June 3rd when a stream of solar wind is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. Originally predicted to arrive on June 2nd, the gaseous material is flowing slower than expected from a pair of holes in the sun's atmosphere. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.32 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04: 40 UTC on June 03

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 355.2 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 4.59 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.82 nT (normal nano-Tesla valor)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: +0.2 % (above average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C6 at 22:44 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 147 (SN 143 June 02)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from this pair of coronal holes could reach Earth on June 2-4.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1664689855727652873

THE THERMOSPHERE IS HEATING UP: If you're a satellite, this story is important. A series of geomagnetic storms in 2023 has pumped terawatts of energy into Earth's upper atmosphere, helping to push its temperature and height to a 20-year high. Air surrounding our planet is now touching satellites in Earth orbit and dragging them down.​

"Blame the sun," says Martin Mlynczak of NASA Langley. "Increasing solar activity is heating the top of the atmosphere. The extra heat has no effect on weather or climate at Earth's surface, but it's a big deal for satellites in low Earth orbit."

Mlynczak is an expert on the temperature up there. For 20 years he has been using the SABER instrument on NASA's TIMED satellite to monitor infrared emissions from "the thermosphere," the uppermost layer of the atmosphere.

"Right now we’re seeing some of the highest readings in the mission's 21.5 year history," he says.

The thermosphere is exquisitely sensitive to solar activity, readily absorbing energy from solar flares and geomagnetic storms. These storms have been coming hard and fast with the recent rise of Solar Cycle 25.

"There have been five significant geomagnetic storms in calendar year 2023 that resulted in marked increases in the amount of infrared radiation (heat) in Earth's thermosphere," says Mlynczak. "They peaked on Jan. 15th (0.59 TW), Feb. 16th (0.62 TW), Feb. 27th (0.78 TW), Mar. 24th (1.04 TW), and April 24th (1.02 TW)."

The parenthetical values are TeraWatts (1,000,000,000,000 Watts) of infrared power observed by SABER during each storm. The sensor obtains these numbers by measuring infrared radiation emitted from nitric oxide and carbon dioxide molecules in the thermosphere.

"The two storms exceeding 1 TW are the seventh and eighth strongest storms observed by SABER over the past 21.5 years," he says. "It is interesting to note that each successive storm in 2023 is generally stronger than its predecessors."

Actually, it doesn't take a strong storm to cause problems. In Feb. 2022, a minor geomagnetic storm dumped enough heat into the thermosphere that 38 newly launched Starlink satellites fell out of the sky. SpaceX has since started launching their Starlinks to higher initial altitudes to avoid the drag.

If current trends continue, the thermosphere will warm even more in 2023 and 2024. This is a matter of concern because Earth's population of active satellites has tripled since SpaceX started launching Starlinks in 2019. The growing constellation of 4100 Starlinks now provides internet service to more than a million customers. An extreme geomagnetic storm like the Halloween Storms of 2003 could shift the positions of these satellites by many 10s of kilometers, increasing the risk of collisions and causing some of the lowest ones to de-orbit.Stay tuned as the warming continues. SpaceWeather.com

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-SpaceWeatherlive..com
-SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUNE 04_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 22:42 UTC from Region 3323 (S07E45)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665183379959037958

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665200239119040512

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3319, AR3320, AR3321, AR3323, AR3324, AR3325, AR3326.

AR3315, AR3316, AR3318, AR3322 are gone

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665178742535204864

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 112 (42 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

AR3319 (S19W71 size 200MH) and AR3323 (S07E30 size 310MH) possess a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy to produce M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 11:08 UTC June 03 Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05:33 UTC on June 03

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.84 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04: 40 UTC on June 04

▪︎ Geospace quiet (kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 323.8 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 10.74 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.38 nT (normal nano-Tesla valor)
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: +0.0 % (average)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C8 at 03:49 UTC
▪︎ Sunspot number: 112 (SN 141 June 03)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from a pair of coronal holes could reach Earth on June 2-4.
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-SpaceWeatherlive..com
-SpaceWeather.com