Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 25_2023

SOMETHING IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE. Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 0933 UTC from Region 3499 (S17W09) on November 24. The flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over South Africa
​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1728250744032366704

https://twitter.com/x/status/1728055360185937981

https://twitter.com/x/status/1728220400575009229

There are currently 13 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3489, AR3490 AR3491,AR3492, AR3493, AR3494, AR3495, AR3497, AR3498, AR3499, AR3500, AR3501 and new region AR3502

AR3496 is gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 184 (65 of these are grouped into 13 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 60% chance M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

● Sunspot region AR3490 has lost its gamma component and now its unstable magnetic field is beta-delta which harbors energy for M and X-class flares. The weekend will be facing the Earth.

● Sunspot region AR3492 has lost its delta component and now its unstable magnetic field is beta-gamma which harbors energy for M-class flares. The weekend will be facing the Earth.

●Sunspot region AR3500 has developed an unstable beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares. Next week it will be facing Earth.
​

SOMETHING IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE ON THE SUN: But what? The face of the sun is peppered with active regions and unstable magnetic filaments. This image from Mike Borman of Evansville, Indiana, shows some of the possible blast sites:​

​

All of the dark diagonal filaments in Borman's photo are unstable and capable of flinging CMEs into space. However, the most dangerous potential blast sites are circled. Those are sunspots with delta-class magnetic fields; mixed magnetic polarities are bumping together, creating conditions suitable for powerful X-class solar flares. If such an explosion occurs this weekend, it will be geoeffective because the sunspots are facing Earth. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On November 24 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 418 km/s (Elevated speed) at 21:00 UTC. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18:55 UTC
​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible late on Nov. 25th through 26th when two CMEs might graze Earth's magnetic field. Both were hurled into space by magnetic filaments erupting from the sun earklier this week. This is a low-confidence forecast; multiple overlapping CMEs have left the sun in recent days, making it difficult to unravel their trajectories. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.26 nT South (Aurora watch)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1727708961443582454

● Current Conditions at 05:30 UTC on November 25

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 3)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 474 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 15.43 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 12.14 nT (Strong impact)
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 19.05x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 2.9 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C4 2338 UT Nov24
▪︎ Sunspot number: 184 (SN 176 November 24)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 26_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 2219 UTC on November 25 from Region 3490 (N20W03)​

There are currently 13 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3489, AR3490, AR3491, AR3492 AR3493, AR3494, AR3495, AR3498, AR3499, AR3500, AR3501, AR3502 and new region

AR3503​

AR3497 is gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 179 (61 of these are grouped into 13 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 40% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

●Sunspot region AR3500 continues with an unstable beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares. Next week it will be facing Earth. All other regions now have stable magnetic fields.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1728365404924583975

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. On November 25 Total IMF reached 18 nT at 08:30 UTC. CME impact was detected at 08:52 UTC. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached at 18:15 UTC Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6) threshold reached: at 19:00 UTC. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 613 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 20:54 UTC.​

CME IMPACT SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Arriving earlier than expected, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 25th (0852 UT). The impact sparked hours of geomagnetic storming--mostly G1 (Minor), but with an interval of G2 (Moderate). Another CME might arrive tomorrow, Nov. 26th, delivering a glancing blow that could extend minor storming through the weekend.​

At the apex of the Nov. 25th storm, auroras were observed across northern Europe, visible to the naked eye despite nearly full moonlight. "I didn't have much hope of seeing anything, when suddenly the sky exploded," says Mats Olsson, who sends this picture from Hindås in the south of Sweden:​

​

SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: 4.2 nT North

https://twitter.com/x/status/1728495146571014417

https://twitter.com/x/status/1728449737416704284

● Current Conditions at 04: 00 UTC on November 26

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 4)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 557.5 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 14 55 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.67 nT (Strong impact)
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.66x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 3 7 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 0325 UT Nov26
▪︎ Sunspot number: 179 (SN 184 November 25)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
EarthSky.org

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 27_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 07:43 UTC on November 26 from Region 3490 (N22W27)
​

CALM BEFORE THE STORM? Solar flare activity has been low for the past 24 hours. Could it be the calm before the storm? Sunspot AR3500 has an unstable delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class solar flares. Any such explosions today will be geoeffective because the sunspot is almost directly facing Earth. SpaceWeather.com​

There are currently 11 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3489, AR3490, AR3492 AR3493, AR3494, , AR3498, AR3499, AR3500, AR3501, AR3502, AR3503

AR3491 & AR3495 are gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 169 (59 of these are grouped into 11 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 35% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

●Sunspot region AR3500 continues with an unstable beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares. Next week it will be facing Earth. All other regions now have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On November 26 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 626 km/s at 2152 UTC. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 2102 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.95 nT South

https://twitter.com/x/status/1728914281968841070

https://twitter.com/x/status/1728886934574100846

● Current Conditions at 04: 40 UTC on November 27

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 472 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 10.62 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.41 nT (Strong impact)
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.83x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 4.8 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 0425 UT Nov27
▪︎ Sunspot number: 169 (SN 179 November 26)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Ca.]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 26_2023

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729159384004173921

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729045632940433706

#meteo this Monday: radical change in weather with gray, #pluie and #neige at low altitude in the east. Temperatures this afternoon: 4°C at #Besançon , 5°C at #Strasbourg , 7°C at #Lyon , 8°C at #Paris , 10°C at #Toulouse , 13°C at #Bordeaux , 14°C in Perpignan.

Maunder Minimum

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729088838008783174

Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie, precursor of climate history, died last week. Météo-France wishes to salute his memory and pay tribute to him by re-sharing one of these interviews on “the great winter” 1708-1709.https://meteofrance.com/magazine/meteo


In 1709, Europe was paralyzed by a deadly wave of snow and ice. An anonymous painting from the 18th century was exhibited at the Castello Sforzesco in Milan.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1728932178950795308

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 28_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 18:52 UTC from Region 3500 (S20E08) on November 27.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729153722348138828

CANYON OF FIRE ERUPTION MIGHT GRAZE EARTH: A solar magnetic filament erupted on Nov. 27th (~0500 UT), carving a 'canyon of fire' in the sun's atmosphere:​

The filament whiplashed a CME into space: movie. The bulk of the storm cloud will pass south of Earth. However, a NASA model suggests it will graze our planet's magnetic field on Nov. 30th. The impact could spark a G1-class geomagnetic storm. SpaceWeather.com​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729324145119289344

There are currently 11 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3489, AR3490, AR3492 AR3493, AR3494, AR3499, AR3500, AR3501, AR3502, AR3503 and new region AR3504
​

AR3498 us gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 159 (49 of these are grouped into 11 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 35% chance M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

Sunspot region AR3500 is decaying and has lost its delta component. The sunspot magnetic field now beta-gamma harbors energy for M-class flares. On the other hand AR3499 has developed a gamma component which also has potential for M-class flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On November 27 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 21:28 UTC. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23:38 UTC​

MULTIPLE CMEs ARE COMING: Yesterday's canyon of fire eruption (described below) sent a CME toward Earth. Make that three CMEs? Follow-up eruptions of two more magnetic filaments may have also hurled CMEs in our direction. Their collective arrival on Nov. 30-Dec. 1 could cause G2-class geomagnetic storms. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.22 nT South


● Current Conditions at 03:45 UTC on November 28

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 480 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 7.76 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.83 nT (Strong impact)
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.84x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 4.8 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C5 2339 UT Nov27
▪︎ Sunspot number: 159 (SN 169 November 27)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729338613845102698

.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Ca.]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 28_2023

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729203958063980949

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729246803697283092

Lightning strikes in India's Gujarat kill 24 during severe thunderstorms and hail -- Sott.net

Twenty-four people have died by lightning strikes and about 23 injured in rain-related incidents in the western Indian state of Gujarat over the past two days, government officials say, with rains continuing on Monday morning. The state was hit...

www.sott.net

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729191088332922993

Snowstorm causes massive power cuts across Ukraine -- Sott.net

Snowstorms and strong winds have left more than 2,000 towns and villages without power across many regions of Ukraine, local officials say. They say 48 people, including children, have been evacuated from trapped vehicles in the worst-affected...

www.sott.net

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729060183807304119

 

[Ca.]

M9.9 solar flare erupts a massive coronal mass ejection likely to be Earth-directed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729597890476011567

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729591313908052267

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729604333442937256

Near X flare just now. Solar Activity ramping up. West Coast EQ update Tuesday 11/28/2023

 

[mabar]

EARTH-DIRECTED HALO CME CONFIRMED:
Today's M9.9-class solar flare and subsequent CME did result in a likely Earth-directed eruption; with the Sun blocked out in SOHO imagery, you can see the Sun's outer atmosphere and the solar storm's front more prominently to the south but also partially to the northeast and northwest too, indicating a cone moving towards us. Now space weather offices will conduct measurements of the storm to ascertain its velcocity and strength. It is likely to arrive to us in 2-3 days. My very preliminary personal and unofficial estimate is late Thursday.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729624611438969333

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 29_2023

ALMOST X-FLARE FROM AR3500 Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. Two M-class flares were produced by active region 3500 (S20W06). First an M3.4 flare at 19:32 UTC that caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over the South Pacific Ocean, minutes later came the largest solar event of the period, an M9.8 flare observed at 19:50 UTC but this time caused a Moderate R2 radio blackout. Fortunately the previous day AR3500 had lost the delta component of its magnetic field. For the rest of the week AR3500 will continue to face the Earth.
​

● On November 27th AR3500 still represented a threat from X-flares.

Sunspot region AR3500 continues with an unstable beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares

● On November 28th the sunspot was decaying

Sunspot region AR3500 is decaying and has lost its delta component. The sunspot magnetic field now beta-gamma harbors energy for M-class flares.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729676539300593790

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729679467780432232

The explosion hurled one CME directly toward Earth. This SOHO coronagraph movie shows a halo cloud expanding in our direction faster than 800 km/s (1.8 million mph):​

​

According to a NASA model, this CME will strike Earth midday (UT) on Dec. 1st. It might sweep up one of several slower CMEs ahead of it. If so, it could form a Cannibal CME capable of causing a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm. SpaceWeather.com​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729645334698033623

There are currently 11 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3489, AR3490, AR3492 AR3493, AR3494, AR3499, AR3500, AR3501, AR3502, AR3503 and new region AR3505

AR3504 is gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 130 (32 of these are grouped into 11 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 40% chance M flares and 10% chance for X flares.

Sunspot region AR3500 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. All other regions have stable magnetic fields.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On November 28 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s (Elevated speed) at 18:09 UTC. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21:05 UTC​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G3): Three and perhaps four CMEs are heading for Earth following a series of explosions on the sun this week. Estimated time of arrival: Nov. 30th and Dec. 1st. The biggest of the CMEs, launched on Nov. 28th, could sweep up some of the earlier, lesser ones, forming a Cannibal CME capable of sparking strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with mid-latitude auroras. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.76 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:10 UTC on November 29

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪︎ Solar wind speed record: 450 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 5.75 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.48 nT (Strong impact)
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.84x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 4.8 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C8 2331 UT Nov28
▪︎ Sunspot number: 130 (SN 159 November 28)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
...........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729708685734052229

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729706663286858217

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT NOVEMBER 30_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 14:35 UTC from Region 3500 (S19W19) on November 29.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1729908336651313442

There are currently 13 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3490, AR3492 AR3493, AR3494, AR3499, AR3500, AR3501, AR3502, AR3503, AR3505 and new regions AR3506, AR3507, AR3508

AR3489 is gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 164 (45 of these are grouped into 13 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 40% chance M flares and 10% chance for X flares. Sunspot region AR3500 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. All other regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On November 29 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 454 km/s (Elevated speed) at 00:41 UTC. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21:08 UTC
​

A CANNIBAL CME IS COMING: NOAA models confirm that a Cannibal CME will strike our planet on Dec. 1st. Cannibal CMEs form when a fast CME sweeps up a slower CME ahead of it. The combination contains intense, tangled magnetic fields that can do a good job sparking auroras when they reach Earth. If a Cannibal CME strikes Earth on Dec. 1st, as predicted, geomagnetic storm levels could reach category G3 (Strong). SpaceWeather.com​

WHAT HAPPENS DURING A STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM? Earth could experience a strong geomagnetic storm this week. If so, here's what we can expect. The last G3-class storm on Nov. 5th sparked not only bright auroras, but also deep-red SAR arcs around the world. Greg Redfern photographed this example from the Shenandoah National Park in Virginia​

​

"I didn't realize I had photographed an SAR arc until I processed my images the next day, stitching two of them together to reveal its shape," says Redfern.

SAR arcs look like auroras, but they are not. They are the glow of heat energy leaking into the upper atmosphere from Earth's ring current system–a donut-shaped circuit carrying millions of amps around our planet. During the Nov. 5th geomagnetic storm, these red arcs were observed as far south as Texas and California.

Auroras were observed as well -- "and they were INSANE," says Janne Maj Nagelsen, who photographed the display from Stamnes, Vaksdal, Norway:​

​

"I have never seen such strong auroras," says Nagelsen. "Not to mention the colors. I mean look at the picture! They were totally, literally insane."

Auroras are caused by charged particles raining from space down upon Earth's atmosphere. Unlike SAR arcs, which are pure red, auroras can have a rich and stunning variety of colors. Both phenomena may be photographed on Dec. 1, 2023, when a Cannibal CME is expected to hit Earth. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.14 nT South


● Current Conditions at 03:20 UTC on November 30

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 415 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 4.33 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3.94 nT (Strong impact)
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.91x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 5.0 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 2241 UT Nov29
▪︎ Sunspot number: 164 (SN 130 November 28)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from this large coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 3-4.

...........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 01_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 19:27 UTC from Region 3500 (S18W30) on November 30.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730223150623830115

There are currently 11 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3492 AR3493, AR3494, AR3500, AR3501, AR3502, AR3503, AR3505, AR3506, AR3507, AR3508

AR3490 & AR3499 are gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 138 (40 of these are grouped into 11 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 35% chance M flares and 10% chance for X flares. Sunspot region AR3500 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. All other regions have stable magnetic fields.
​

SUNSPOT GROWTH: Here I compare the official sunspot number for the recent rotation (orange) with the previous one (blue). The X axis is days but is effectively longitude. In the first week this rotation showed some mild decay but over the last 10 days it has grown significantly. Keith Strong vía X ​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On November 30 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s (Elevated speed) at 00:27 UTC. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23:59 UTC
​

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS IN NOVEMBER: We had a total of 8 periods where the Kp index was at 5 or greater (G1). The strongest storm on 6th April reached G4 (Kp=8) level (severe) for a few hours. This was significant increase over October which had just 4 events with a peak of G1 (Kp=5) Keith Strong vía X ​

Aurora Oval Bz: -8.26 nT South
​

● Current Conditions at 03:20 UTC on December 01

▪︎ Geospace active (Kp 4)
▪Solar wind speed record: 441.5 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 5.28 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: nT (Strong impact)
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.67x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 4.7 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C4 0311 UT Dec01
▪︎ Sunspot number: 138 (SN 164 November 30)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from a large coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 3-4.
........
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

M1 flare early this morning.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730223150623830115

A CME JUST HIT EARTH: However, it might not be the "Big One." A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 1st at 0021 UT, jolting the USGS magnetometer in Frericksberg, Virginia, by 36 nT. This could be the first of two CMEs en route to Earth. NOAA forecasters expect a significant Cannibal CME (composed of multiple storm clouds) to reach Earth midday on Dec. 1st, possibly sparking strong G3-class geomagnetic storms. Aurora alerts: SMS Text


Sky watchers in Iceland witnessed the CME's arrival. Its impact turned the night sky green:

​

Jim Scripko sends the photo from Exton, Pennsylvania. He was watching the Langihryggur volcano webcam in Iceland when the auroras appeared. "This image may seem utterly underwhelming, but consider that it is a screen shot of a low resolution webcam that is set up to watch for volcanic activity," says Scripko. "It shows some tremendous auroras. I'll be excited to see what photographers with real cameras turn up!"

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 02_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 0439 UTC from Region 3502 (N14W81). the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Southeast Asia


There are currently 11 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3492 AR3493, AR3494, AR3500, AR3501, AR3502, AR3503, AR3505, , AR3507, AR3508 and new region AR3509​

AR3506 is gone

Total number of sunspots has increased to 140 (41 of these are grouped into 11 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 35% chance M flares and 10% chance for X flares. Sunspot region AR3500 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. All other regions have stable magnetic fields.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. On December 1 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 14:43 UTC. Total IMF reached 28 nT at 19:22 UTC​

● Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached at 01:03 UTC
● Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6) threshold reached at 01:05 UTC
● Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7) threshold reached at 01:11 UTC
● Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (kp5) threshold reached at 23:35 UTC

CME IMPACT SPARKS STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: One and possibly two CMEs hit Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 1st, sparking a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm. At the apex of the event, just before sunrise on the US west coast, auroras were photographed in the USA as far south as Arizona and California. The storm appears to be subsiding now, but it's not over; minor G1-class activity is likely in the hours ahead.​

When the CME struck, Rob King was outside in the Porcupine Mountains of Michigan watching the sky. This is what he saw:​

"I took this picture using nothing more than my handheld Galaxy S22 smartphone," says King. "It was amazing!"

In Canada, the auroras were so bright they competed with the waning full Moon. Harlan Thomas photographed the two side-by-side north of Calgary, Alberta:​

​

"The aurora 'went coronal' and met up with a 22-degree Moon halo," says Thomas. "The outburst was so powerful it overpowered the cloud cover.
Are more CMEs on the way? Maybe. On Nov. 27th and 28th, the sun launched at least 3 CMEs toward Earth. The biggest one probably swept up some of the storm clouds in front of it, forming a Cannibal CME. It's possible that today's impacts account for all of those CMEs, but we can't rule out another impact before the day is over.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730563945969193391

Aurora Oval Bz: 6.75 nT North

● Current Conditions at 05:20 UTC on December 02

▪︎ Minor G1Geomagnetic storm (Kp 5) in progress.
▪Solar wind speed record: 488 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 7.83 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 14.64 nT (Strong impact)
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.63x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 4.6 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: M1 at 21:20 from AR3500 ( S18W44) the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean


▪︎ Sunspot number: 140 (SN 138 December 01)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from a large coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 3-4.
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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 03_2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 21:20 UTC from Region 3500 (S18W44). See previous report current conditions.​

There are currently 8 sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3494, AR3500, AR3501, AR3503 AR3505, AR3507, AR3508, AR3509

AR3492 AR3493 & AR3502 are gone

Total number of sunspots has decreased to 92 (24 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 35% chance M flares and 10% chance for X flares. Sunspot region AR3500 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. All other regions have stable magnetic fields.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. On December 2 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 21:08 UTC. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 21:00 UTC

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A Cannibal CME struck Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 1st, sparking a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm with auroras in both hemispheres. "We witnessed an incredible show on the Canterbury coastline overlooking the Pacific Ocean," reports Mike White from New Zealand. "The sound of waves crashing onto the beach and washing across the stony pebbles created the perfect soundtrack for these Southern Lights."​

​

"The Cannibal CME arrived just as New Zealand skies were darkening. The resulting cloud of charged particles rained down Earth's magnetic field lines and delivered a light show that lasted for hours. It was easily visible to the naked eye."
Meanwhile in the northern hemisphere, auroras descended as far south as Arizona and California. Marybeth Kiczenski was in rural Wisonsin when the Northern Lights raced overhead:​

​

This is my favorite tree in Wisconsin," says Kiczenski. "After five separate attempts for catch auroras at this location, it finally came together!"
The storm is subsiding now, with minor G1-class activity in progress as Earth exits the CME's wake. High latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras through Dec. 2nd.​

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.07 nT South

https://twitter.com/x/status/1731103070023782726

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730583153599996304

● Current Conditions at 04:20 UTC on December 03

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 431 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 4.71 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 8.42 nT
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.63x1010 W Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: - 6.3 % (Low)
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 0142 UT Dec03
▪︎ Sunspot number: 92 (SN 140 December 02)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from a large coronal hole should reach Earth on Dec. 4-5.

A HOLE IN THE SUN'S ATMOSPHERE: A huge hole has opened in the sun's atmosphere, and it is directly facing Earth. Solar wind flowing from the hole will reach our planet on Dec. 4th or 5th. Its arrival should spark G1-class geomagnetic storms. SpaceWeather.com

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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Ca.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1731328016163168433

https://twitter.com/x/status/1731416780575506624

https://twitter.com/x/status/1731372353001808278

https://twitter.com/x/status/1731325473081483665