The Bros recount the findings of a recent paper regarding tree-ring studies from France which reveal spikes of Cosmogenic markers in a single year that correlate with Greenland ice-core records. The award-winning work of Gerard Bond is totally ignored though data recognizing the role of the Sun in Earth’s climate has been robustly supported since the deployment of solar observatories began three decades ago. Miyake Events and other explosive solar events are revealing the volatile Nature of the Sun. The coronal magnetic field, mass ejections, and impacting comets are new pools of data that are being studied – transforming our understanding and shedding Light on the role of the Sun in this dynamic and interconnected planetary system. Kosmographia Ep102 of The Randall Carlson Podcast, with Brothers of the Serpent – Kyle and Russ, Normal Guy Mike, and GeocosmicREX admin Bradley, from 10/16/23
LINKS:
Tree ring study: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/do...
Gerard Bond 2001 paper on North Atlantic Climate cycles: http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/semi...
Airbursts and Cratering Impacts journal: https://www.scienceopen.com/collectio...
(UPDATE) X-FLARE, STRONGEST FLARE OF THE CURRENT SOLAR CYCLE, PRODUCED A CME EARTH DIRECTED
Confirmation: Low-resolution images from NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft show a CME apparently with an Earth-directed component:
We are still awaiting higher-quality data from SOHO to firm up the details. SpaceWeather.com
GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Dec. 15th and 16th in response to an incoming solar wind stream with a stealthy CME embedded in it. Storm levels could escalate to category G2 (Moderate) or G3 (Strong) on Dec. 17th if yesterday's X2.8-class solar flare also hurled a CME in our direction. SpaceWeather.com
Sunspot region 3514 continued today with an impressive M-class event. This event had a double peak at M6.2 and M6.9 respectively with the M6.9 value being registered around 07:34 UTC. This solar flare was also highly eruptive like the X2.8 flare from yesterday but coronagraph imagery indicates that the coronal mass ejection from this event likely does not have an earth-directed component. SpaceWeatherlive..com
A FUSILLADE OF SOLAR FLARES: Sunspot 3514 continued to flare today with a strong M7-class event following close on the heels of yesterday's X2.8-class boomer. The X-flare on Dec. 14th was the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017.
Only the fact that AR3514 is approaching the sun's western limb prevents it from causing strong geomagnetic storms here on Earth. Eruptions from the sunspot are a little off-target. Nevertheless, we will not escape unscathed. The X2.8-class flare hurled a fast-moving CME into space, and it will probably graze Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 17th. We are still awaiting the results of NOAA modeling to confirm the timing of impact and the possible strength of any resulting geomagnetic storm. SpaceWeather.com
A shock was observed in the real time solar wind data around 11:00 UTC this morning. This may be associated with a faint partial halo CME from two days ago. Expect enhanced geomagnetic conditions in the next 12 to 24 hours. The north-south direction of the IMF (Bz) is currently pointing northwards suppressing geomagnetic activity but should it turn southwards for a prolonged period we might see minor G1 geomagnetic storm conditions later today or tomorrow. SpaceWeatherlive.com
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 16_2023
Hi All! I just returned from the Fall AGU Meeting in San Fransisco. While there, I watched in frustration as our Sun decided to launch some whoppers while I was away on travel.
So, now that I am back, I have quickly compiled a snapshot of data for you that I will go over in a live briefing on Saturday (tomorrow as I write this). I tried to make this brief video as informative as possible, but there is so much more to say (and show you).
Right now we have five partly Earth-directed solar storms headed our way, with the latest one launched just today. On top of that we have an ongoing mild radiation storm and a continued risk for R3-level radio blackouts. This risk will remain high for at least another 24-48 hours. However, another set of big active regions is slated to rotate into view in two days so activity may remain elevated over the next two weeks.
I will go live to discuss all of this on Saturday at 1 pm PST (21:00 UTC). I will go over all you see above and more, address the Sun's farside, give you 5-day outlooks, and answer your questions. Be sure to look for my post on Saturday morning for the link to the live stream. See you Saturday!
WAITING FOR THE SOLAR STORM: A CME expected to hit Earth on Dec. 16th has not yet arrived, but NOAA forecasters believe it is still coming. The storm cloud was hurled in our direction by last Thursday's X2.8-class solar flare. An overdue impact on Dec. 17th could cause G1 (Minor) to G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms with auroras across northern-tier US States SpaceWeather.com
MULTIPLE CMEs ARE COMING: Geomagnetic storms are likely on Dec. 16th and 17th when multiple CMEs hit Earth's magnetic field. A new NOAA model shows three CMEs combining to form a single storm front, striking in unison on Dec. 16th around 20:00 UT:
All of the incoming CMEs were launched into space by sunspot AR3514, which has been flaring almost constantly since Dec. 13th. The most important CME is linked to the X2.8-class flare of Dec. 14th; that one alone should be sufficient to spark a geomagnetic storm this weekend.
● Current Conditions at 04:20 UTC on December 17NOAA analysts have issued a watch for G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms with a chance of escalating to category G3 (Strong). A strong storm would produce auroras at mid-latitudes with no Moon to spoil the show. SpaceWeather.com
Earth-Directed Solar Storm Train and an X-Flare | Informal Live Forecast Briefing 16 December 2023SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 17_2023
Hi All! Ive been working up to the very last minute to get a detailed live forecast ready! Join me LIVE today at 1:30p PST (21:30 UTC) for a live briefing on the train of solar storms coming towards Earth and the big flares we have been experiencing over the past few days. I will go over all of the content from my recent snapshot plus more! As usual I will do a "Bottom Line Up Front" (BLUF) and then a deep dive and Q&A so bring your questions! I will be opening this briefing to the public, but as always, you get priority when it comes to questions. Feel free to post them here in the comments below or ping me in the You Tube chat directly.
WAITING FOR THE SOLAR STORM: A CME expected to hit Earth on Dec. 16th has not yet arrived, but NOAA forecasters believe it is still coming. The storm cloud was hurled in our direction by last Thursday's X2.8-class solar flare. An overdue impact on Dec. 17th could cause G1 (Minor) to G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms with auroras across northern-tier US states. CME impact alerts: SMS Text
THIS IS WHAT A RADIO BLACKOUT SOUNDS LIKE: On Dec. 14th, the sun silenced radio transmissions on Earth. An X2.8-class solar flare (the strongest flare of the current solar cycle so far) ionized the top of our atmosphere, disrupting shortwave transmissions across the Americas. In rural New Mexico, amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded the blackout:
"As my dynamic spectrum shows, all terrestrial shortwave radio transmissions coming into New Mexico faded for 10 to 15 minutes after the flare," says Ashcraft. "The blackout affected all frequencies below 30 MHz."
The blackout was not completely silent, however. Minutes after it began, the sun filled the quietude with a roar of static. It was a Type II
"The shock wave packed a punch!" says Ashcraft. "You can hear what it sounded like in this 90-second audio file."
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT DECEMBER 18_2023
AR 3519 produced an M4.2 flare this morning.35% chance M flares