Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[mabar]

Concerning if the solar flares are to blame or not for this incident, it might be appropriate to check if something similar happened in early September 2017 when there were more of them in short time span and some of them then were much stronger, like X13 for example.

Something did happend on that day. Perhaps is as Ben explained, is more like random, not a one-size-fits-all rule.

Although is curious, the date of the article is September 06, 2017. Same date as X13 solar flare although, was it updated? Because I found it X 9.3.

Sun Unleashes Monster Solar Flare, Strongest in a Decade

This article was updated at 5:44 p.m. EDT to indicate that a coronal mass ejection was observed coming from the site of the solar flare.

Early this morning (Sept. 6), the sun released two powerful solar flares — the second was the most powerful in more than a decade.

At 5:10 a.m. EDT (0910 GMT), an X-class solar flare — the most powerful sun-storm category — blasted from a large sunspot on the sun's surface. That flare was the strongest since 2015, at X2.2, but it was dwarfed just 3 hours later, at 8:02 a.m. EDT (1202 GMT), by an X9.3 flare, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). The last X9 flare occurred in 2006 (coming in at X9.0).

According to SWPC, the flares resulted in radio blackouts: high-frequency radio experienced a "wide area of blackouts, loss of contact for up to an hour over [the] sunlit side of Earth," and low frequency communication, used in navigation, was degraded for an hour.

The 6 September 2017 X-Class Solar Flares and Their Impacts on the Ionosphere, GNSS, and HF Radio Wave Propagation

We investigated effects of the 6 September 2017 X-class solar flares on the ionosphere, GNSS-based navigation, and HF propagation
The solar flares had a significant impact on the ionosphere, and the ionospheric effects lasted longer than the enhanced EUV emission
The SRB associated with the X9.3 flare did not impact on the GNSS communication, but the X-ray emission caused blackout in HF propagation

 

[mabar]

It did not happen something similar to what is blamed on the sun with the recent X class flares. Even the impact was R3 and caused a radiation storm at the poles. It happened on September 6, 2017 with a X9.3

Just saw your post, inside the article, mentions the same as the one I posted, what does imply this then?

According to SWPC, the flares resulted in radio blackouts: high-frequency radio experienced a "wide area of blackouts, loss of contact for up to an hour over [the] sunlit side of Earth," and low frequency communication, used in navigation, was degraded for an hour.

 

[Puma]

Just saw your post, inside the article, mentions the same as the one I posted, what does imply this then?
According to SWPC, the flares resulted in radio blackouts: high-frequency radio experienced a "wide area of blackouts, loss of contact for up to an hour over [the] sunlit side of Earth," and low frequency communication, used in navigation, was degraded for an hour.

Cellular telephony (AT&T and others) and radio operate in different bands.



Mobile devices operate by sending and receiving radio signals from between 900 MHZ and 2000 MHz (Very High Frequency or VHF and Ultra high frequency band or UHF).

Radio communications that are affected according to the graph are below 35 MHZ (High frequency band or HF and low frequency or LF) Air and maritime navigation aid systems, such as radio beacons, as well as broadcasting systems operate in this band.​

AT&T uses a frequency band ranging from 850 MHZ to 2300 MHZ.

 

[mabar]

Ok, so.. just for understanding. That graph is the effect on the surface of earth, right?

What I understood from Ben's is that the X flare affected a satellite on space. And that can happend according to this video. Just that in this event (2024) do not have the data that proves it.
Found this, but is not enough.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760807445192929707

Learn how solar flares can affect satellites, rockets, telecommunications systems and activity on the surface of the Earth

Add, delete an X post, the X6 came later

 

[Antony]

- A spot on the Sun the size of three Earths has targeted our planet - the maximum radiation threat has been declared.

A powerful coronal mass ejection is 99% likely to cause a frontal impact on our magnetosphere. This will lead to bright auroras not only in the northern and middle latitudes, but also in the southern ones.

The radiation threat to satellites and the threat of radiation load on the Earth's atmosphere will be maximum in the next three days.

BUYAN - Чё там в мире?

☝🏻🗣️ - Пятно на Солнце размером в три Земли нацелилось на нашу планету - объявлена максимальная радиационная угроза. 📍Мощный выброс корональной массы с 99% вероятностью нанесет лобовой удар по нашей магнитосфере. Это приведет к ярким полярным сияниям не только в северных и средних широтах, но и...

t.me

 

[Puma]

That graph is the effect on the surface of earth, right?

The effect is on the ionosphere where radio waves operate. Upon contact with a CME, the magnetosphere is compressed, this disturbance produces a geomagnetic storm and can, in turn, disrupt radio and satellite communications. In the most extreme cases, it can even cause power outages.
​

The Ionosphere is part of Earth’s upper atmosphere, between 80 and about 600 km where Extreme UltraViolet (EUV) and x-ray solar radiation ionizes the atoms and molecules thus creating a layer of electrons. the ionosphere is important because it reflects and modifies radio waves used for communication and navigation. Other phenomena such as energetic charged particles and cosmic rays also have an ionizing effect and can contribute to the ionosphere. Ionosphere ​

 

[mabar]

- A spot on the Sun the size of three Earths has targeted our planet - the maximum radiation threat has been declared.

Except that, that post is not very specific and the gif one can see on their Telegram channel seems to be from the past X flares. Not from today.

 

[msasa79]

The effect is on the ionosphere where radio waves operate. Upon contact with a CME, the magnetosphere is compressed, this disturbance produces a geomagnetic storm and can, in turn, disrupt radio and satellite communications. In the most extreme cases, it can even cause power outages.
​

View attachment 92192

Maybe unrelated to the recent outage incident, or not, difficult to say either way with any amount of certainty, but we usually tend to 'forget' that Earth's magnetosphere is highly dynamic system in direct connection to the Sun and the heliosphere, and that's not only via so called Parker spiral mentioned few times recently in this thread.

Leaving aside all other known and some maybe still yet unknown, speculative and exotic stuff, there's always simple Earth's rotation which also spins the geomagnetic field aka Earth's magnetosphere together with it.

So just visualize how the magnetosphere looks like on the day side of the Earth, where it's compressed by solar radiation, visible light and all other kinds of incoming e-m waves, and particles in the form of the solar wind for example, to the thickness of 10-12 Earth radii; contrast that to the long elongated magnetotail which extends to 200 Earth radii and more with all the structures that find themselves on the other sude of the globe (wiki); and use the imagination to draw the mental picture, or maybe more appropriate a mental giff, what is happening along the dawn side of our planet, where that complex structures from 'behind' it continously turn into the compressed shield 'in front' of it, and also along the dusk side where the giff goes in reverse, in the most simple approximation which very probably is not what actually happens during the magnetotail continous 'rebirth'.

So, it's not really 'easy' to say with certainty that the Sun definitely does not have anything to do with potential temporary satellite malfunction; magnetic stuff that happen in the heliosphere most of the time stay outside of our direct perception and our scientific instruments are more or less rather scarce in their numbers compared to the vastness of our physical cosmic surroundings. What can be said though, is that directly perceived frying the satellites by those 3 recently observed X class solar flares most probably didn't occur, at least not in a way we usually conceive such a frying event.

My 2 cents.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 26_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 1722 UTC from Region 3590 (N18W13). The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over South America. AR3590 will remain a threat for a strong X-Flare.
​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1761837070929022996

The total number of sunspots has increased to 114 of which 54 of them are grouped into 6 active regions as follows: AR3586, AR8390, AR3591, AR8392, AR3594 & new region AR3595​

NOAA's solar flare forecast remains for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 70% chance of M flares and 30% chance of X flares.

AR3590 has increased in size to 1450 "millionths of a solar hemisphere" (MH) and is now 8.5 times larger than the Earth, however, the number of sunspots comprising this complex has been reduced to 29 and according to NOAA forecasts, it has a 99% chance of producing C-class flares, a 70% chance of producing M-class flares and a 30% chance of X-class flares.

An approximate size reference. AR 3590 vs our planet Earth. Image by SDO/HMI.
​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On February 25 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 459 km/s (Elevated speed) at 03:58 UTC. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 19:25 UTC
​

WEAK IMPACT: A CME grazed Earth's magnetic field today, Feb. 25th (~1645 UT), but the impact was weak and it did not cause a geomagnetic storm. The CME was hurled into space on Feb. 21st by an erupting filament of magnetism (movie) in the sun's northern hemisphere. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -7.78 nT South

​

● Current Conditions at 04:23 UTC on February 26

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp3 (unsettled) due to the weak impact of the CME that was ejected by a magnetic filament on February 21. The solar wind speed remains at Elevated levels exceeding 400 km/s. This could be due to the solar wind stream approaching from a coronal hole in the southern part of the solar disk. The auroral oval map shows that conditions are in place for observing auroras at high latitudes. Although the solar wind speed is elevated protons per cm³ in the atmosphere remain at low levels. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) had a strong impact on the Earth's magnetic field reaching 13 nT. The last recorded solar flare was a C3 from AR3590 at 22:16 UTC. The number of sunspots increased to 114 of which 29 belong to the colossal AR3590.
​

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 405 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 3.22 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 9.38 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C3 2216 UT Feb25
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.5 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 114 (SN 106 Feb 24)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ According to SDO a stream of solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole could hit Earth on Feb. 26th

.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 27_2024

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 18:35 UTC from Region 3590 ( N18W27). For most of the day there were no solar flares but it was until 16:01 UTC that a C1 was recorded from AR3590

Stunning solar jets

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762092362950435121

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762092834646118400

The total number of sunspots has increased to 133 of which 63 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows: AR3586, AR8390, AR3591, AR8392, AR3594, AR3595 & new region AR3596​

NOAA's solar flare forecast was updated for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 50% chance of M flares and 10% chance of X flares.

AR3590 has decreased in size to 1130MH and is now 6.5 times larger than Earth, however, the number of sunspots that make up this complex has increased again to 42 and according to NOAA forecasts, it has a 99% chance of producing C-class flares, a 50% chance of producing M-class flares and a 10% chance of producing X-class flares. Delta spots rarely last more than one rotation of the sun. They decay faster than other sunspots.
​

BIG SUNSPOT GETS EVEN BIGGER: Giant sunspot AR3590 spent the weekend getting bigger. This two-day movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows its area increasing by a quarter in only 48 hours:​

​

AR3590 is now the largest sunspot of Solar Cycle 25. For comparison, it is now 60% as large (by surface area) as the great sunspot that caused the Carrington Event in Sept. 1859. Even a 60%-intensity Carrington Event occuring today could cause problems for satellites, power grids, and internet connectivity. That's why forecasters are carefully watching this sunspot. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On February 26, Solar wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 1624 UTC. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 23: 37 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -3.84 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:50 UTC on February 27

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp4. Geomagnetically active conditions reached threshold at 02:59 UTC this is due in part to the Earth entering a solar wind stream from a Coronal Hole which has kept the solar wind speed at elevated levels exceeding 400 km/s. This high solar wind speed helps provide the conditions for observing auroras at high latitudes.

The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) per second day, had a strong impact on the Earth's magnetic field reaching 12 nT. The last recorded solar flare was a C1 from AR3590 at 04:21 UTC. The number of sunspots increased to 133 of which 44 belong to AR3590.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762004352632574323

▪︎ Geospace active (Kp 4)
▪Solar wind speed record: 446 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 5.18 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.44 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C1 0428 UT Feb27
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.9 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 133 (SN 114 Feb 26)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal hole.

.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 28_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 0742 UTC from Region 3590 (N18W40).

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 103 of which 42 of them are grouped into 6 active regions as follows: AR8390, AR3591, AR8392, AR3594, AR3595 & AR3596

AR3586 is gone
​

AN UNUSUAL ALIGNMENT OF SUNSPOTS:
Like almost everyone else in the world with a solar filter, Alan Friedman of Buffalo, NY, has been watching giant sunspot AR3590. "It's wonderful, as expected," says Friedman, "but yesterday I was surprised to see an unusual line up of sunspots to the left." Note the red box in his Feb. 26th photo of the sun:​

​

Sunspots usually travel along lines of latitude, creating horizontal bands parallel to the sun's equator. Today's line-up is perpendicular to that arrangement. Does it mean anything? Probably not. However, the vertical line might signal something offbeat in the sun's inner magnetic dynamo--the ultimate source of all space weather. Like AR3590, it merits watching. SpaceWeather.com​

NOAA's solar flare forecast remains for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 50% chance of M flares and 10% chance of X flares.

AR3590 is decaying and has decreased in size to 900MH and is now 5 times larger than Earth, the number of sunspots that make up this complex has decreased to 19 and according to NOAA forecasts, it has a 95% chance of producing C-class flares, a 45% chance of producing M-class flares and a 10% chance of producing X-class flares. AR3590 is currently in the Earth's strike zone and by the end of the week this sunspot will leave the solar disk.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. On February 27 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s (High speed) at 0703 UTC Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23:57 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.59 nT South

​

● Current Conditions at 04:47 UTC on February 28

The geomagnetic activity is at index Kp2 (quiet), however, around 03:00 UTC on February 27 a weak G1 geomagnetic storm was reached and subsided around 06:00 UTC, after which conditions returned to Kp3 (unsettled), this kept the solar wind speed at normal levels of around 300 km/s and contributed to moderate conditions for auroral observations at high latitudes. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) had a moderate impact on the Earth's magnetic field reaching 8 nT. The last recorded solar flare was a C2 from AR3595 at 00:44 UTC. The sunspot number decreased to 103 mainly due to the decay of AR3590.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762412604364849291

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 369 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2.84 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 2.64 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 0044 UT Feb28
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.9 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 103 (SN 133 Feb 27)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)

SPOTLESS DAYS: Comparing solar cycle 25 with the previous 4 cycles. SC25 has about 25% fewer spotless days so far compared to SC24 but is much higher than SC23, SC222, and SC21. This implies that SC25 peak will be greater than SC24 (already happened) but less than the other 3 Keith Strong vía X

▪︎ Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from a coronal hole.

.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 29_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 18:54 UTC from Region 3590 ( N18W52). The flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over South America

The total number of sunspots has increased to 127 of which 57 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows: AR8390, AR3591, AR8392, AR3594, AR3595, AR3596 & new region AR3597​

NOAA's solar flare forecast remains for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 50% chance of M flares and 10% chance of X flares.

AR3590 continues with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field and has increased its size slightly to 930MH The number of sunspots that make up this complex has also increased slightly to 24. NOAA forecasts that this region still has a 95% chance of producing C-class flares, a 45% chance of producing M-class flares and a 10% chance of producing X-class flares.

AR3595 has developed an unstable beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. This region size is 170MH and is a group of 15 sunspots.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. On February 28 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s (Elevated speed) at 0704 UTC Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09:56 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.07 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:20 UTC on February 29

The geomagnetic activity is at the Kp1 index (quiet), however, the solar wind speed is at high levels of about 417 km/s for the moment there are no conditions for observing aurorae at high latitudes. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has a low impact on the terrestrial magnetic field reaching 4 nT. The last recorded solar flare was a C6 at 00:00 UTC. The sunspot number increased to 127​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 417 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 2.73 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.33 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C6 0000 UT Feb29
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.8 % (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 127 (SN 103 Feb 28)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)

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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 01_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 00:00 UTC from Region 3590 (N18W65)

Solar physicist Keith Strong mentions that Solar cycle 25 is exceeding the activity of cycle 24.
​

SC24 VS SC25 C FLARES: 4 years into each cycle and SC25 is outperforming SC24 by a margin of 2:1. Note, at this stage SC24 started to tail off, but don't be fooled (as many were at the time); the first drop in flare activity did not mean SC24 had peaked. Later a 2nd larger peak.​

​

SOLAR CYCLE M FLARE RATE ACCELERATING: As with the previous comparison SC25 M flares are outpacing SC24, this time by a margin of >2:1. Note by this stage SC24 was producing almost no M flares whereas the rate for SC25 seems to be on the rise. Will the gap continue to widen?​

​

SOLAR CYCLE 25 BEATING SOLAR CYCLE 24 BY A WIDENING MARGIN: Caution! we are dealing with the statistics of small numbers here, so any conclusions are shaky. However, the number of X-flares in SC25 so far is higher than SC24 at the same stage by a margin of 80%.​

​

SOLAR CYCLE 25 IS WINNING THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION RACE, SO FAR: SC25 is leading SC24 in its production of CMEs but only by a margin of 37%. Why so much less than the difference for flares? CMEs are produced both by flares and filament eruptions.​

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 107 of which 39 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows: AR8390, AR3591, AR8392, AR3594, AR3595, AR3596, AR3597 & new region AR3598​

NOAA's solar flare forecast remains for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 50% chance of M flares and 10% chance of X flares.

AR3590 continues with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field and has increased its size to 1000MH The number of sunspots that make up this complex has decreased to 24. NOAA forecasts that this region still has a 95% chance of producing C-class flares, a 40% chance of producing M-class flares and a 10% chance of producing X-class flares. Over the weekend this region will be on the far side of the solar disk.

AR3595 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. This region size has increased to 330 MH and is a group of 12 sunspots. NOAA forecasts that this region has a 50% chance of producing C-class flares, a 15% chance of producing M-class flares and a 1% chance of producing X-class flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On February 29 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s (Elevated speed) at 21:46 UTC. Total IMF reached 5.3 nT
​

A GLANCING-BLOW CME IS COMING (MAYBE): NOAA forecasters say that a CME might graze Earth's magnetic field late on March 2nd. It was hurled into space yesterday when a magnetic filament attached to sunspot AR3592 erupted. The impact could spark minor G1-class geomagnetic storms. SpaceWeather.com​

Sunspot region 3590 transited the earth-facing solar disk without throwing much of a fuss but while it approaches the west limb it produced a long duration M1.4 solar flare. It's first proper eruptive event. The resulting coronal mass ejection is however aimed away from our planet. SpaceWeatherlive.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -3.49 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:44 UTC on March 01

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp3 (unsettled), with solar wind speed at normal levels of 382 km/s Remnants of the weak G1 storm cause moderate conditions for auroral observations at high latitudes. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has a low impact on the Earth's magnetic field, reaching 5 nT. The last recorded solar flare was a C3 at 01:25 UTC. The number of sunspots decreased to 107
​

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 382 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2.71 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5.06 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C3 0125 UT Mar01
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.6% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 107 (SN 127 Feb 29)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)

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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 02_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 0125 UTC from Region 3590 (N18W80).

The total number of sunspots has increased to 120 of which 39 of them are grouped into 9 active regions as follows: AR8390, AR3591, AR8392, AR3594, AR3595, AR3596, AR3597 AR3598 & new region AR3599


NOAA's solar flare forecast remains for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 50% chance of M flares and 10% chance of X flares.

AR3590 lost its gamma-delta components and now has a stable beta magnetic field. The area of this region decreased to 600MH and the number of sunspots that make up this complex decreased to 7 NOAA forecasts that this region still has a 90% chance of producing C-class flares, a 40% chance of producing M-class flares, and a 10% chance of producing X-class flares. Over the weekend this region will leave the solar disk. It is over for this region.

AR3595 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. This region size has increased to 370MH and is a group of 9 sunspots. NOAA forecasts that this region has a 50% chance of producing C-class flares, a 15% chance of producing M-class flares and a 1% chance of producing X-class flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On March 01 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s (Elevated speed) at 03:42 UTC. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03:23 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.44 nT South
​

● Current Conditions at 04:37 UTC on March 02

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp2 (quiet), with solar wind speed at normal levels of less than 350 km/s. The remnants of the weak G1 storm cause moderate conditions for auroral observations at high latitudes.​

MARCH IS THE BEST MONTH OF THE YEAR FOR AURORAS: Did you know that March is the best month of the year for auroras? It's true. A 75-year study by retired NASA solar physicist David Hathaway shows that March has more geomagnetically active days than any other month of the year. (October is a close second.)​

​

According to historical records, geomagnetic disturbances are almost twice as likely in spring and fall vs. winter and summer. This is due to the Russell-McPherron effect. In short, cracks tend to form in Earth's magnetosphere during weeks around equinoxes, allowing solar wind to spark Northern Lights. Happy March! SpaceWeather.com​

The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has a low impact on the Earth's magnetic field, reaching 3 nT. The last recorded solar flare was a C2 at 23:48 UTC. With the departure of AR3590, solar activity remains at low levels, however, more sunspots appear in the southeastern limb, a sunspot complex assigned AR3599 and promises to put on a show in the coming days.
​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 337 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2.48 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 2348 UT Mar01
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.3% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 120 (SN 107 Mar 01)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)

.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 03_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 12:58 UTC from Region 3595 (N20W35).

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 91 of which 33 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows: AR8390, AR3591, AR3595, AR3596, AR3598, AR3599 & new region AR3600

AR8392, AR3594 & AR3597 are gone

NOAA's solar flare forecast was updated for the next 24 hours: 75% chance of C flares, 25% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares. AR3595 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. All other regions have a stable magnetic field.
​

GIANT SUNSPOT VISIBLE FROM MARS: For the past two weeks, astronomers on Earth have marveled at the size and violence of sunspot AR3590. It unleashed the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 (X6.3) and, at one point, was more than half the size of Carrington's sunspot. Now AR3590 is visible from Mars. Mars rover Perseverance saw it yesterday from Jezero crater:​

This weekend, AR3590 will rotate off the Earthside of the sun. Perseverance can keep track of it for us; the Mars rover has a good view of the sun's farside, where AR3590 will spend the next two weeks. If it does not decay, the sunspot could become a renewed threat for Earth-directed flares in mid-March when it turns our way again SpaceWeather.com​

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● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On March 01 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 07:19 UTC.​

Aurora Oval Bz: Bz: -0.83 nT South

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● Current Conditions at 03:37 UTC on March 03

The geomagnetic activity is in the Kp3 index (unstable), the CME that grazed the magnetic field yesterday March 02 was not enough to cause a G1 geomagnetic storm as forecast, with a solar wind speed at normal levels below 300 km/s the conditions for auroral observations at high latitudes are very low. Similarly, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has a low impact on the Earth's magnetic field, reaching 2 nT. The last recorded solar flare was a C2 at 0058 UTC. Solar activity remains at low levels.
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▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 266 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2.42 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 2 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare: C2 0058 UT Mar03
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.3% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 91 (SN 120 Mar 02)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
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