Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 18_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3.8 event observed at 05:47 UTC

The total number of sunspots has increased to 86 of which 28 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows: AR3606, AR3607, AR3608, AR3611, AR3612, AR3613 & new region AR3614

AR3610 is gone
​

LARGE SUNSPOT COMPLEX COMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIMB. It seems to be composed of many smaller spots so implies it may be a newly emerging region so could become active in the coming days. Keith Strong vía X ​

​

Active regions to keep an eye on and a partial halo CME observed following a filament eruption early Sunday. Solarham on X

NOAA has updated its forecas for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 30% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On March 17 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s (Moderately High speed) at 16:22 UTC No significant record on IMF​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): A CME hurled toward Earth earlier today (see the "Canyon of Fire Eruption" below) could graze our planet's magnetic field on March 20th. The timing is perfect for equinox auroras at high latitudes. At this time of year, even a glancing blow from a CME can spark a geomagnetic storm thanks to the springtime Russell-McPherron effect SpaceWeather.com

CANYON OF FIRE ERUPTION: A large filament of magnetism stretching across the sun's southern hemisphere erupted today, carving a "canyon of fire" in the sun's atmosphere. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the blast, which began around 0200 UT on March 17th:​

​

Debris from the explosion produced a partial halo CME recorded by SOHO coronagraphs. A NASA model of the storm cloud suggests it could strike Earth's magnetic field on March 20th, sparking high-latitude auroras on the first night of Northern Spring.​

Aurora Oval Bz: 2.42 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:31 UTC on March 18

The solar wind speed has reached a normal speed of 290 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has no significant impact on the Earth's magnetic field. Two M flares have been recorded in the last hour. A M2.7 at 0332 UTC from AR3612 the flare generated a R1 radio blackout over Southeast Asia.


A second M1 occurred at 04:33 UTC from AR3614 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Southeast Asia


The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for March 18​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 0)
▪Solar wind speed record: 290 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 1.88 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.89 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M2 0332 UT Mar18
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -2.9% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 86 (SN 67 Mar 17)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ A new coronal hole is emerging in the sun's southern hemisphere.
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[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 19_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6.6 event observed at 19:19 UTC from AR3615 the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over East Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769845636839411715

The total number of sunspots has increased to 127 of which 28 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows: AR3607, AR3608, AR3611, AR3613, AR3614 & new regions AR3615, AR3616​

AR3606 & AR3612 are gone.

NOAA has updated its forecas for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 40% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares.

AR3615 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. This active region has an area of 180MH with 14 sunspots in the complex. All remaining regions have stable magnetic fields.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On March 18 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s (Elevated speed) at 08:21 UTC Total IMF reached 9 nT at 2006 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -1 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:23 UTC on March 19

The solar wind speed has reached a normal speed of 373 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has a moderate impact on the Earth's magnetic field. M1.4 event occurred at 02:29 UTC from AR3515. The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Southeast Asia
​

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares tomorrow while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels and quiet to minor storm levels on March 20

​

Photos: Record heat index of 62.3C scorches Rio de Janeiro

Reading is city’s highest in a decade. Heat index measures what a temperature feels like, taking into account humidity.

www.aljazeera.com

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 373 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 5.83 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1 0229 UT Mar19
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -2.8% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 127 (SN 86 Mar 18)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ A new coronal hole is emerging in the sun's southern hemisphere.
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[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 20_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.4 event

M1.4 event occurred at 02:29 UTC from AR3515. The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Southeast Asia

The total number of sunspots has increased to 123 of which 53 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows: AR3607, AR3608, AR3611, AR3613, AR3614, AR3615 & AR3616

NOAA forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 40% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares.

AR3615 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares while AR3614 have developed a beta-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares.​

A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SUNSPOT: New sunspot AR3615 is complicated. It looks more like a rash than a sunspot, with a dozen-plus dark cores scattered randomly over a wide area. A magnetic map of the region shows why it is potentially dangerous:​

​

While most sunspots are bipolar with only two dominant magnetic poles (+ and -) , AR3615 appears to have many poles crushed together. The close proximity of multiple pluses (+) and minuses (-) within a single sunspot group could lead to magnetic reconnection and strong solar flares.​

Indeed, AR3615 is crackling with flares. The strongest so far is this M6.7-class explosion recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory on March 18th (1919 UT):​

​

Ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over western parts of the USA: map. Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed loss of signal below 30 MHz for as much as 30 minutes after the flare's peak. SpaceWeather.com​

​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On March 19 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s (Elevated speed) at 16:52 UTC Total IMF reached 10 nT at 2244 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.17 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:20 UTC on March 19

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 2 (quiet)

The solar wind speed has reached a normal speed of 388 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has a low impact on the Earth's magnetic field. M2.1 event occurred at 19/23:27 UTC from AR3615. The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean
​

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels and quiet to minor storm levels on March 20​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 388 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 5.41 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 2.62 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M2.1 at 2327 UT Mar 20
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.0% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 123 (SN 127 Mar 19)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎.Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole should reach Earth on March 24th

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SpaceWeather.com

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

AR3615 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares

M 7.48 flare currently unfolding, most likely from sunspot AR3615 :

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 21_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 0736 UTC from Region 3615 (S12E39). The flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over India. Mo major ejection of coronal material so a CME from it seems unlikely.
​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770626591950766275

Later an M1.9 occurred at 22:55 UTC on March 19 from AR3615 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770620664182985012

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 120 of which 51 of them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows: AR3607, AR3608, AR3611, AR3613, AR3614, AR3615, AR3616 & new region AR3617

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 45% chance of M flares and 10% chance of X flares.

AR3615 has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares while AR3614 continues with a beta-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On March 20 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s (Normal speed) at 00:24 UTC Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17:56 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 2.02 nT North

● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on March 19

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 3 (unsettled) Probably due to the radiation impact of the last two M-class flares, a CME hurled toward Earth on March 18, and a strong IMF. The solar wind speed has reached a normal speed of 350 km/s and the record shows that there is a moderate density of protons per cubic centimeter. Around 04:00 UTC there was a record of 30 p/cm³​

The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has a strong impact on the Earth's magnetic field of 11nT. Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare in the next 24 hours. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels due to the arrival of a CME ​

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 350 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 23 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 11 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1 2256 UT Mar20
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.3% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 120 (SN 123 Mar 20)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎.Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole should reach Earth on March 24th

CORONAL HOLE ALERT: A large coronal hole is just about to cross into the western hemisphere of the Sun and so could start to bathe the Earth in high-speed solar wind that often leads to geomagnetic storms in a day or two's time. Keith Strong vía X

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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Pat]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 21_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 0736 UTC from Region 3615 (S12E39). The flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over India. Mo major ejection of coronal material so a CME from it seems unlikely.
View attachment 93224​

View attachment 93225

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770626591950766275

Later an M1.9 occurred at 22:55 UTC on March 19 from AR3615 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770620664182985012

View attachment 93226

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 120 of which 51 of them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows: AR3607, AR3608, AR3611, AR3613, AR3614, AR3615, AR3616 & new region AR3617
View attachment 93230

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 45% chance of M flares and 10% chance of X flares.

AR3615 has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares while AR3614 continues with a beta-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On March 20 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s (Normal speed) at 00:24 UTC Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17:56 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 2.02 nT North
View attachment 93228
● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on March 19

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 3 (unsettled) Probably due to the radiation impact of the last two M-class flares, a CME hurled toward Earth on March 18, and a strong IMF. The solar wind speed has reached a normal speed of 350 km/s and the record shows that there is a moderate density of protons per cubic centimeter. Around 04:00 UTC there was a record of 30 p/cm³​

View attachment 93229

The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has a strong impact on the Earth's magnetic field of 11nT. Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare in the next 24 hours. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels due to the arrival of a CME ​

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 350 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 23 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 11 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1 2256 UT Mar20
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.3% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 120 (SN 123 Mar 20)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎.Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole should reach Earth on March 24th

View attachment 93227
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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

I read often. Thank for the effort you put.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 22_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. After the M1.9 flare at 22:55 UTC the largest solar event was a C8.7 event observed at 11:32 UTC from Region 3615 (S12E23)

Magnetic filament eruption in solar northern hemisphere

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770980938572239128

The total number of sunspots has increased to 141 of which 51 of them are grouped into 9 active regions as follows: AR3607, AR3608, AR3613, AR3614, AR3615, AR3616 AR3617 & new regions AR3618, AR3619

AR3611 is gone

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 45% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares.
​

A SCATTERED, SHATTERED SUNSPOT: AR3615 isn't like most other sunspots. It looks like it has been stepped on and shattered. Earlier today, Philippe Tosi of Nîmes, France, photographed the sunspot's 40+ cores and inserted a picture of Earth for scale:​

​

Only one or two of the sunspot's primary cores re close in size to Earth. The others are about the size of moons or continents--all scattered like dice over an area some 200,000 km wide.​

The unusual complexity of AR3615 is a sign of potential danger. Magnetic poles sprouting from all these cores are crowded; opposite polarities pressed together could reconnect explosively to produce a strong solar flare. Indeed, it would not be a surprise if AR3615 produced an X-flare before the coming weekend is over. SpaceWeather.com ​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels levels for the past 24 hours. On March 21 Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached at 13:38 UTC. Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached: 14:41 UTC Solar wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s (Normal speed) at 15:17 UTC. Geomagnetic Storm subsided around 21:00 UTC. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 02:41 UTC



Aurora Oval Bz: 5.05 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:36 UTC on March 22

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 4 (Active) after a period of minor geomagnetic storm G1 probably caused by a small CME that grazed the Earth. This storm may have caused fluctuations in the electrical grid at high latitudes. The latest auroral map shows little chance of seeing auroras at high latitudes despite the geomagnetic storm, possibly improving in the next few hours.

Last night aurora

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770999492793479542

The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has a moderate impact on the Earth's magnetic field. Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare in the next 24 hours. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.​

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 354 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 5.45 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 9 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C3 0057 UT Mar22
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.5% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 120 (SN 123 Mar 20)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎.Solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole should reach Earth on March 24th

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SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 23_2024

X-FLARE. High solar activity. Interesting what happened a few hours ago. AR3615 produced two M-class flares back to back.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1771349834882077079

● M4.2 at 20:32 UTC from AR3615 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean

● M1.1 at 21:22 UTC from AR3615 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean
​

Then, AR3614 responded with an X-class flare.

● X1.1 at 01:33 on March 23 from AR3614 the flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean​

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) is confirmed following the X1.1 event this evening. SolarHam vía X

The total number of sunspots has increased to 171 of which 80 of them are grouped into 9 active regions as follows: AR3607, AR3608, AR3614, AR3615, AR3617, AR3618, AR3619 & new region AR3620

AR3613 & AR3616 are gone

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 50% chance of M flares and 10% chance of X flares.

AR3615 continues with an unstable magnetic field, however, AR3614 with a stable beta (bipolar) magnetic field surprisingly produced an X-class flare. There is nothing absolute in solar science.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On March 22 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s (Normal speed) at 0702 UTC Total IMF reached 10 nT at 2157 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -7.88 nT South​

● Current Conditions at 04:36 UTC on March 23

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 3 (unsettled) due to the high solar activity we have now conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. On March 21 the IMF had a strong impact on the Earth's magnetic field.​

Total IMF reached 14 nT at 02:41 UTC

Often when this strong impact occurs within hours there is a strong earthquake, as well as some climatic or volcanic phenomena. It is something that needs to be studied further, but most professional seismologists still refuse and are closed to new ideas.​

● M 6.4 - 111 km N of Paciran, Indonesia
2024-03-22 08:52:58 (UTC)
5.867°S 112.362°E. 8.5 km depth
USGS earthquake alert

Currently the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has a moderate impact on the Earth's magnetic field. Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare in the next 24 hours. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and active around March 24 due to a high speed wind for a coronal hole.

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 351 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 16.53 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 9.33 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : X1 0133 UT Mar23
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-4.0% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 171 (SN 120 Mar 22)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎.Solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole should reach Earth on March 24th

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SpaceWeather.com

 

[Nienna]

▪︎ density: 16.53 p/cm³ (low density)

Okay, Puma, this density thing has had me stumped for some time now. How do you figure it? I have seen that sometimes something like 9.xx is called moderate, and I've seen times where a lower number has been a high density. Can you explain how the density is figured?

 

[Puma]

Okay, Puma, this density thing has had me stumped for some time now. How do you figure it? I have seen that sometimes something like 9.xx is called moderate, and I've seen times where a lower number has been a high density. Can you explain how the density is figured?​

Hi, @Nienna

As seen in the SpaceWeatherlive graph, above 20 p/cm³ corresponds to a moderate density but below 10 is a low density.



So what about 16 if it's not low or moderate. Well, the SpaceWeather site that generates the data does not explain it either.
​

The density of the solar wind
This parameter shows us how the dense the solar wind is. The more particles in the solar wind, the more chances we get for an auroral display as more particles collide with Earth’s magnetosphere. The scale used in the plots on our website is particles per cubic centimeter or p/cm³. A value above 20p/cm³ is a good start for a strong geomagnetic storm but it is no guarantee that we get to see any aurora as the solar wind speed and the interplanetary magnetic field parameters also need to be favorable.SpaceWeatherlive..com​

So relating the auroral map with the density, if there are auroras, I consider the density level to be moderate if it is above 10 p/cm³.

There are also times when I forget to change the level due to carelessness. The great majority of the times it is low density, at this moment for example, we have 25.5 p/cm³ and it is a value that I rarely see.

Thanks for reading and for highlighting this I will be more careful, but basically if there are auroras and the value is between 10 and 20 I consider it moderate.​

 

[Ryan]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 23_2024

X-FLARE. High solar activity. Interesting what happened a few hours ago. AR3615 produced two M-class flares back to back.

● M4.2 at 20:32 UTC from AR3615 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean
● M1.1 at 21:22 UTC from AR3615 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean​

Then, AR3614 responded with an X-class flare.

AR3615 continues with an unstable magnetic field, however, AR3614 with a stable beta (bipolar) magnetic field surprisingly produced an X-class flare. There is nothing absolute in solar science.​

Interesting to consider this in light of yesterday's events in Ukraine, Russia, and the recent controversies around the Duchess of Cambridge's health and Brigitte Macron. Human-Cosmic connection at work?

Often when this strong impact occurs within hours there is a strong earthquake, as well as some climatic or volcanic phenomena. It is something that needs to be studied further, but most professional seismologists still refuse and are closed to new ideas.

Might be worth keeping an eye on for the next few days!

 

[Puma]

Watch the skies and land and oceans...

THE SUN GOES CRAZY! After the X flare, we have had 11 M flares in as many hours. The X-ray background is at M1 level! They are all coming from sunspot region AR3615. See if you can identify them all.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1771560695974244551

● M4.2 at 20:32 UTC from AR3615 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean

● M1.1 at 21:22 UTC from AR3615 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean

● M1.1 at 06:55 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean

● M2.4 at 07:09 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean

● M3 at 07:38 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean


● M1 at 11:29 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Africa

● M1.3 at 12:47 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Africa


● M1.1 at 13:11 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean

● M1.9 at 13:37 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean



● M5.3 at 14:05 UTC the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean


● M3.8 at 16:38 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over South America


In addition to all this energy being sent to Earth a radiation storm is in progress (Red zones at the poles) Moderate S2 Solar Radiation Storm - Infrequent effects on HF radio through polar regions and satellite operations

What is a solar radiation storm?

A solar radiation storm (also known as a Solar Proton Event or SPE) occurs often after major eruptions on the Sun when protons get launched at incredibly high speeds, sometimes up to several 10.000 km/s. These radiation storms can bridge the Sun-Earth distance in as little time as 30 minutes and last for multiple days. In this article we are going to explain what a solar radiation storm is and what kind of effects it has on us.​

S-scale

NOAA uses a five-level system called the S-scale, to indicate the severity of a solar radiation storm. This scale ranges from S1 to S5, with S1 being the lowest level and S5 being the highest level. Every S-level has a pfu (proton flux unit) threshold associated with it. For example: S1 solar radiation storm levels are reached when the 10 MeV pfu count reaches a value of 10 at geosynchronous satellite altitudes. Do note that this scale is actually logarithmic. What that means it that a moderate (S2) proton event occurs when the proton flux reaches 100 pfu, not 20! For a strong (S3) solar radiation storm, a pfu of 1000 is required.​

SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

Since the last report, AR3615 has generated more M-class solar flares and we are inside a moderate geomagnetic storm.

● M1.5 at 14:53 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over South America

● M3.7 at 15:13 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over South America

● M2 7 at 16:51 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over South America


● M2.4 at 23:49 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean

A GEOMAGNETIC STORM IS UNDERWAY: The big CME hasn't reached Earth, but a geomagnetic storm is already underway. Equinox cracks in Earth's magnetic field have allowed solar wind to penetrate, igniting G1 to G2-class storms on March 23rd.

● Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5)
Threshold Reached: 20:55 UTC

● Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
Threshold Reached: 23:20 UTC

Current Conditions Kp6 at 01:04 UTC

A BIG CME IS COMING: This morning's X1-class solar flare hurled a bright CME toward Earth. NASA and NOAA models agree that the storm cloud should reach our planet by the early hours of March 25th. A direct hit could spark strong G3-class geomagnetic storms with mid-latitude auroras in the USA and Europe.​

SOHO coronagraphs captured this halo CME heading for Earth on March 23, 2024​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 24_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 0133 UTC from Region 3614 (N17W07)​

X1.1 at 01:33 on March 23 from AR3614 the flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean

STRONG X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: The sun just produced a solar flare so strong, it took two sunspots to make it. Improbably, sunspots AR3614 and 3615 exploded in tandem on March 23rd around 0130 UT, directing their fire straight at Earth. A National Solar Observatory telescope in Australia recorded the double blast:​

The explosion from AR3614 (top) seemed to rip the fabric of the sun, while AR3615 (bottom) followed close behind with a less violent blast of its own. The same sequence was captured in this movie from NASA's Solar Dyanamics Observatory.​

While this may seem like an incredible coincidence, it probably didn't happen by chance. Researchers have long known that widely-spaced sunspots can explode in tandem. They're called "sympathetic solar flares." Occasionally, magnetic loops in the sun's corona fasten themselves to distant pairs of sunspots, allowing explosive instabilities to travel from one to the other. This has apparently happened to AR3614 and AR3615.​

Some sympathetic flares are so much alike, they are considered to be twins. Today's double-blast was not a perfect twin, but close enough. It shows that the two sunspots are linked, raising the possibility of more double-flares this weekend.​

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 146 of which 80 of them are grouped into 6 active regions as follows: AR3614, AR3615 AR3617, AR3619, AR3620 & new region AR3621​

AR3607, AR3608 & AR3618 are gone

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 90% chance of M flares and 45% chance of X flares.

AR3615 continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta. The following table shows the evolution of this region, which today consists of 53 cores covering an area of 730 MH.

SpaceWeatherlive.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to moderate storm levels (kp6) for the past 24 hours. On March 23 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 1826 UTC Total IMF reached 17 nT at 1437 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: Bz: -2.78 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on March 24

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 5 which indicates that we are under Minor G1 geomagnetic storm, this means that weak power grid fluctuations can occur and minor impact on satellite operations is possible.

Currently the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has a moderate impact on the Earth's magnetic field. On March 23 total IMF reached 17 nT at 14:37 UTC. That was a strong shock, then at 20:22 UTC a M6.9 earthquake was recorded in Papua New Guinea followed by three M5+ aftershocks

​

SpaceWeatherlive.com

● M 6.9 - 38 km ENE of Ambunti, Papua New Guinea. (Main shock)
2024-03-23 20:22:04 (UTC)
4.139°S 143.159°E. 40.2 km depth
USGS earthquake alert

And the Sun continues to send us energy. A few minutes ago AR3615 produced a M1.1 flare (around 04:20 UTC). The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Southeast Asia.


As we can see, the radiation storm persists at the poles.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare in the next 24 hours. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to major storm levels.​

▪︎ Minor G1 geomagnetic storm in progress (Kp 5)
▪Solar wind speed record: 536.5 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 13.85 p/cm³ (moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6.11 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M2 0218 UT Mar24
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-3.8% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 171 (SN 120 Mar 22)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎.Solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole should reach Earth on March 24th

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SpaceWeatherlive.com
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[Nienna]

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question, @Puma . It's very much appreciated.