Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM

Severe G4 geomagnetic storm (Kp8)
Threshold Reached: 16:28 UTC

The expected #solarstorm has arrived earlier than predicted. At 800 km/sec it is the fastest moving storm I've seen since Solar Cycle 23. The initial impact hit hard enough to bring us up to G4-levels. However, the field has flipped northward so #aurora may dim momentarily. Stay tuned! Dr. Tamitha Skov

Wow Personally, I do not recall having reported these values for the solar wind and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field.(IMF)

Both the DSCOVR and ACE spacecrafts solar wind data is showing a shock passage just after 14:00 UTC (Mar 24).

Note that at 16:11 UTC the Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field registered 30.43 nT at this time (18:28 UTC) the value is 11.4 nT while the solar wind is at 851 km/s!
​

Let's wait and see what impact this has on the earth's climate, volcanic and seismic activity in the coming hours.

​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 25_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2.2 event observed at 06:06 UTC from Region 3615 (S13W14) the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean​

Other M-class flares generated by the same region:

● M1.3 at 07:51 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean

● M1.1 at 12:18 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean
● M1 at 12:34 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean
M1.2 at 13:14 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1771879401614889107

Flares, CMEs and now Magnetic Filament

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772060703358062689

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772066284668129683

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 145 of which 75 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows: AR3614, AR3615 AR3617, AR3619, AR3620, AR3621 and new region AR3622​

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 85% chance of M flares and 25% chance of X flares.

AR3615 continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta. Today this active region consists of 54 cores covering an area of 810 MH.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels (kp6) for the past 24 hours. On March 24 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 887 km/s (High speed) at 20:35 UTC Total IMF reached 33 nT at 1607 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 18.86 nT North

​

Might this be a #solarstorm fizzle? Although this storm will continue for hours yet, whether it will contain southward magnetic field is the key for big #aurora shows. At Solar Orbiter (see the figure below), the storm has a weak "South-East-North" configuration, meaning the axis of its magnetic "solar slinky" core points mainly east with a slight tilt to the north. At Earth, early indications show this core may be oriented in a more "East-North-West" direction. If so, this does not bode well for generating aurora. With Solar Orbiter separated from Earth by 11° in longitude, it is quite possible to have a slightly "bent" ICME orientation as shown. I've seen the magnetic core of ICMEs rotate over 90° between spacecraft separated by that magnitude. STEREO-A may not give us much more insight because its longitudinal separation is over 9° from Earth. The best we can do is keep our fingers crossed that the storm still has some southward field, but sadly, it is not looking good. Dr. Tamitha Skov ​

● Current Conditions at 04:35 UTC on March 25

The geomagnetic storm has weakened a little because the solar wind magnetic field turned northward. But the main body of the CME, aka, the flux rope, seems to have arrived as seen in low proton temperature. We should monitor how the magnetic field turns in the flux rope. Halo CME vía X​

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 4 (active) The geomagnetic storm has subsided and the solar wind, with a high speed of more than 700 km/s, is turning northward, which does not offer the best conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. AR3615 is taking a break after the great activity recorded on March 23 and 24. Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares in the next 24 hours. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm levels on March 25​

▪︎ Geospace active (Kp 4)
▪Solar wind speed record: 749 km/sec (high speed)
▪︎ density: 20 p/cm³ (moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 19 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C5 0104 UT Mar25
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-3.5% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 145 (SN 146 Mar 24)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole.

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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[PERLOU]

THANK YOU @Puma for your repeated efforts to keep us abreast of our sun's fluctuations... Much appreciated...

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 26_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4.4 event observed at 0644 UTC from Region 3615 (S13W27) the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772203854513197276

The total number of sunspots has increased to 163 of which 83 of them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows: AR3614, AR3615 AR3617, AR3619, AR3620, AR3621, AR3622 & new region AR3623

NOAA forecast remains for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 85% chance of M flares and 25% chance of X flares.

AR3615 continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta. Today this active region consists of 63 cores covering an area of 1120 MH.​

THE DANGER HAS NOT PASSED: Yesterday's severe geomagnetic storm is over, but the calm might not last. Giant shape-shifting sunspot AR3615 poses a continued threat for Earth-directed solar flares. NOAA forecasters say there is a 25% chance of X-flares today, tomorrow, and Wednesday. If the sunspot blows, it would give sky watchers in Europe and the USA a second chance at auroras this week. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels (kp5) for the past 24 hours. On March 25 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 909 km/s (Very High speed) at 20:35 UTC Total IMF reached 30 nT at 21:08 UTC​

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM--THE STRONGEST IN YEARS: ​

As predicted, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on March 24th (1437 UT). The impact opened a crack in our planet's magnetosphere and sparked a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm--the strongest geomagnetic storm since Sept. 2017.​

The timing of the CME did *not* favor observers in Europe or the United States. Instead, New Zealand got the light show:​

SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.78 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:32 UTC on March 26

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 3 (unstable) The geomagnetic storm has subsided but early this morning (05:23 UTC) we had a disturbance of the Earth's magnetosphere with a brief period of minor geomagnetic storm G1 (Kp5) The solar wind is now at a moderately high speed of over 500km/s pointing south which offers conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes.

At 00:36 UTC AR3615 produced a M1.8 flare that generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean


On march 26 Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels.​

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 567 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 0.45 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5.29 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1 0036 UT Mar26
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-7.9% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 163 (SN 145 Mar 25)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 27_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.9 event observed at 1330 UTC from Region 3615 (S13W41) the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean


Other M flares from AR3615

● M1 at 10:17 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Africa

● M1.3 at 10:43 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Africa


● M1.6 at 13:46 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean


● M1.6 at 21:58 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean


The total number of sunspots has decreased to 149 of which 69 of them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows: AR3614, AR3615 AR3617, AR3619, AR3620, AR3621, AR3622 & new region AR3623

NOAA forecast remains for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 25% chance of X flares.

AR3615 continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta. Today this active region consists of 53 cores covering an area of 1140 MH.



● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (kp3) for the past 24 hours. On March 26 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 852 km/s (High speed) at 0503 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08:20 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.64 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:27 UTC on March 27

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 3 (unsettled) The solar wind is now at a moderately high speed of over 492 km/s pointing north which offers low conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes. AR3615 has produced a M1.1 at 0144 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean
​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772796191173964021

On march 27 Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 492 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 0 p/cm³
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1 0144 UT Mar27
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-7.9% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 149 (SN 163 Mar 26)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

A SHARP REDUCTION IN COSMIC RAYS: Astronauts on the International Space Station got a break from their daily dose of cosmic rays on March 24th when radiation levels suddenly dropped more than 14%. What happened? A coronal mass ejection (CME) swept the radiation aside:​

​

This is called a "Forbush decrease," named after American physicist Scott Forbush who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century. It happens when a CME sweeps past Earth and pushes galactic cosmic rays away from our planet. Radiation from deep space that would normally pepper space stations, satellites, and Earth’s upper atmosphere is briefly wiped out.​

In the graph, above, the Forbush decrease is shown as a downward spike in neutron counts recorded at the Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland. Neutrons are a well-known proxy for cosmic rays. When cosmic rays strike Earth's upper atmosphere, they produce a spray of neutrons that reach the ground below. Sensors in Oulu count these "secondary cosmic rays" to monitor activity in space.​

This week's Forbush decrease is the biggest of Solar Cycle 25 (so far), exceeding the previous record-holder on Nov. 3-4, 2021 when a potent Cannibal CME dropped neutron counts by 11%. SpaceWeather.com​

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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 28_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.1 event observed at 06:41 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean



The total number of sunspots has decreased to 114 of which 53 of them are grouped into 6 active regions as follows: AR3614, AR3615 AR3617, AR3619, AR3620, AR3622

AR3621 & AR3623 are gone

NOAA forecast remains for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 25% chance of X flares.

AR3615 is decaying but continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta. Today this active region consists of 41 cores covering an area of 960 MH

​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (kp3) for the past 24 hours. On March 27 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s (Moderately High speed) at 09:57 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08:14 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.81 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:41 UTC on March 28

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 2 (quiet) The solar wind is now at a moderately high speed of over 449 km/s pointing north which offers low conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes. AR3615 gave us a demonstration of what an active region looks like and for the moment seems to be taking a breather. This region produced 36 M-class flares and 88 C-class flares. These were the top 10 flares of AR3615
​

On march 27 Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels.

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 449 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 0.02 p/cm³
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C7 0427 UT Mar28
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-5.6% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 114 (SN 149 Mar 27)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com

SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

Looks like AR3615 fullfilled its "duty" with another M7.0 flare :

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 29_2024

X-FLARE. Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1.1 event observed at 2056 UTC from Region 3615 (S13W69) The flare produced a strong (R3) radio blackout event over most of the Pacific Ocean, Central America, and western North America

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773524587378036976

​

Other flares from AR3615

● M7 at 06:29 UTC the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Indian Ocean​

● M6.1 at 15:56 UTC the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Central a South America​

● M1.1 at 19:37 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout Central Pacific Ocean
​

● M9.7 at 20:46 UTC the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Central Pacific Ocean


The total number of sunspots has decreased to 101 of which 51 of them are grouped into 5 active regions as follows: AR3614, AR3615 AR3617, AR3619, AR3620

AR3622 is gone

NOAA forecast remains for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 25% chance of X flares.

AR3615 is growing again and continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta. Today this active region consists of 40 cores covering an area of 990 MH​

GIANT SUNSPOT APPROACHES "THE DANGER ZONE": After a few days of stalled progress, sunspot AR3615 is growing again. A 50% increase in surface area since yesterday has ballooned one of its dark cores to triple the size of Earth. "I saw the sunspot this morning just off the wingtip of an RAF A400," says Marc Charron, who sends this picture from Ayr, Scotland SpaceWeather.com​

​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels (kp2) for the past 24 hours. On March 28 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s (Elevated speed) at 00:02 UTC Total IMF reached 4 nT at 21:36 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.47 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:33 UTC on March 29

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 2 (quiet) The solar wind is now at normal speed of more than 350 km/s pointing north which offers low conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes. AR3615 came out of its rest and on this day produced four M class flares and one X class flare. During its transit across the sun AR3615 produced many flares. but pretty much no note-worthy CMEs it was sunspot region 3614 who was the real star of that show by producing a CME that caused a severe geomagnetic storm in the past few days. On march 29 Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 375 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.02 p/cm³
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M3 0232 UT Mar29
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-5.6% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 101 (SN 114 Mar 28)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 30_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 0230 UTC from Region 3615 (S13W81) The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773890246280613981

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE AND CME (UPDATED): Yesterday, giant sunspot AR3615 produced another X1-class solar flare. The explosion on March 28th at 2053 UT ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere and caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean: map. NOAA forecasters have modeled the trajectory of a CME that emerged from the blast site, and determined that it will not hit Earth. No geomagnetic storms will result from this event. SpaceWeather.com​

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 79 of which 40 of them are grouped into 4 active regions as follows: AR3615 AR3617, AR3619, AR3620

AR3614 is gone

NOAA forecast remains for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 25% chance of X flares.​

SIZZLING SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR3615 is literally sizzling. Earlier today, David Wilson of Inverness, Scotland, photographed the active region spitting hot plasma as it approaches the sun's western limb:​

​

"I don't often photograph the solar surface, but this was too good to miss," says Wilson. "It reminds me of the current Icelandic volcano."
The sunspot's location near the edge of the solar disk gives photographers a good look at its sizzling magnetic canopy. Up-and-down motions captured in Wilson's video are part of the turmoil that gives rise to strong solar flares. Just yesterday, AR3615 unleashed two strong M-class flares and an X-flare.
Any eruptions this weekend could have a strong effect on Earth. Sunspots located near the sun's western limb are magnetically connected to our planet via the Parker Spiral. If AR3615 erupts while it is transiting this "danger zone," energetic protons and electrons may be funneled back toward Earth for a solar radiation storm. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels (kp2) for the past 24 hours. On March 29 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s (Elevated speed) at 23;17 UTC Total IMF reached 4 nT at 23:40 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.93 nT North

● Current Conditions at 04:18 UTC on March 30

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 1 (quiet) The solar wind is now at normal speed of more than 300 km/s pointing north which offers low conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes. AR3615 is about to leave the solar disk this weekend but continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta. Today this active region consists of 34 cores covering an area of 960 MH During its transit across the sun AR3615 produced 108 C-class flares, 42 M-class flares and 1 X-class.

On march 30 Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels.

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 325 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.08 p/cm³
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C7 0211 UT Mar30
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-5.8% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 79 (SN 101 Mar 29)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 31_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M9.4 event observed at 21:16 UTC from AR3615 (S13W94) the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774244887862428157

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 60 of which 5 of them are grouped into 3 active regions as follows: AR3617, AR3619 & new region AR3624

AR3615 & AR3620

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 65% chance of M flares and 15% chance of X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels (kp2) for the past 24 hours. On March 30 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s (Elevated speed) at 20:43 UTC Total IMF reached 13 nT at 20:43 UTC

SOLAR RADIATION STORM WATCH: Departing sunspot AR3615 erupted again today, March 30th (2116 UT), producing an M9.4-class solar flare only percentage points below category X. This flare will very likely produce a solar radiation storm in the hours ahead. At its current location near the sun's western limb, the sunspot is magnetically well-connected to Earth via the Parker Spiral. Protons and electrons produced by the blast will naturally spiral back to Earth and rain down upon our planet's atmosphere. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.84 nT North

● Current Conditions at 05:25 UTC on March 31

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 4 (active) The solar wind is now at elevated of more than 450 km/s pointing north which offers low conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes. Active conditions and the 13 nT IMF at 2043 UTC on March 30 indicate that a radiation storm may be developing in the next few hours. AR3615 left the solar disk with a M9.4 flare that some solar observers mention was two flares, one M9.4 at 21:16 UTC and another one at 21:31 UTC. It is expected to be updated in the next hours to know if it was two flares or just one.

What is a fact is that at 23:00 UTC AR3615 produced a M4.5 flare. As mentioned by SpaceWeather.com the active region is already on the far side of the sun, so the flare had no impact on the magnetic field, however it is still magnetically connected to the Earth so it can produce a radiation storm.

On march 30 Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.​

▪︎ Geospace active (Kp 4)
▪Solar wind speed record: 496 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 5 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 7 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M4 2300 UT Mar30
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-5.0% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 60 (SN 79 Mar 30)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 01_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4.8 event observed at 14:10 UTC from AR3615 on the far side of the sun.

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 50 of which 10 of them are grouped into 4 active regions as follows: AR3617, AR3619 AR3624 & new region AR3625

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 10% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels (kp4) for the past 24 hours. On March 31 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 11:54 UTC Total IMF reached 14 nT at 23:51 UTC
​

SOLAR RADIATION STORM WATCH--CANCELED: ​

Departing sunspot AR3615 erupted on March 30th (2116 UT), producing an M9.4-class solar flare only percentage points below category X. At first it seemed that the explosion would cause a solar radiation storm. AR3615 is magnetically well-connected to Earth via the Parker Spiral. Debris from the blast should have spiraled back to our planet. However, that didn't happen, so the radiation storm watch is canceled. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -4.12 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:10 UTC on April 01

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 2 (quiet) The solar wind is now at elevated of more than 450 km/s pointing south which offers conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774336751084954018

The last one and we are leaving said the AR3615 that produced a M3.9 flare at 01::32 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean


On April 01 Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flares The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 497 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 4.7 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M3 0132 UT Apr01
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-4.8% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 50 (SN 60 Mar 31)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[heinrich]

i thought that this article might be of interest in the context of our sun. however, i do not believe that a 7c difference could be of influence. also, the different rotation speed of equator and poles shows the fluid nature of the sun's body, and tribological factors might be of interest to explain electrical and magnetic phenomena.

The 7 degrees solar paradox: Astronomers believe they are closer to solving the “impossible” rotation of the Sun • Soul:Ask | Unlock your mind and soul

For a long time this was explained by temperature differences. But only now physicists from the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research were able to

www.soulask.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 02_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3.9 event observed at 0132 UTC from AR3615 see previous report.

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 50 of which 10 of them are grouped into 5 active regions as follows: AR3617, AR3619 AR3624, AR3625 & AR3626

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 75% chance of C flares, 20% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields
​

THE SUNSPOT REPORT FROM MARS: Giant sunspot AR3615 is no longer visible from Earth. Over the weekend it rotated onto the farside of the sun. From Mars, however, it is still clearly visible. Mars rover Perseverance sends this picture taken earlier today from Jezero crater:​

Perseverance looks at the sun once a day to check the air for dust. The rover uses its MASTCAM (stereo mast camera), which puts about 90 pixels across the solar disk. It takes a large sunspot to show up in these low-resolution images. AR3615 is very large, indeed.​

The giant sunspot will return to the Earthside of the sun approximately two weeks from now. Thanks to Perseverance, we will be able to monitor AR3615 for another 7 or 8 days, to see if it remains large and potent as it approaches its return. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels (kp4) for the past 24 hours. On April 01 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 653 km/s (high speed) at 0252 UTC Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21:21 UTC
​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): NOAA has issued a minor (G1-class) geomagnetic storm watch for April 4th when a stream of solar wind is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. The storm could cause bright naked-eye auroras around the Arctic Circle, with fainter photographic auroras as far south as the US-Canadian border. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.08 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on April 02

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 2 (quiet) The solar wind is now at elevated speed of more than 450 km/s pointing south which offers conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775009002117874017

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774993692790559045

On April 01 Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flares The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 446 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 24.67 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare :
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-4.7% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 54 (SN 50 April 01)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

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[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 03_2024

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a B3 event observed at 02:36 UTC

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 35 of which 4 of them are grouped into 3 active regions as follows: AR3624, AR3626 & new region AR3627

AR3617, AR3619 & AR3625 are gone

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 70% chance of C flares, 20% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (kp3) for the past 24 hours. On April 02 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 520 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 2104 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21:00 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.17 nT South

● Current Conditions at 05:25 UTC on April 03

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 3 (unsettled) The solar wind is now at elevated speed of more than 450 km/s pointing south which offers conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775267580699447668

Weather forecast for eclipse day


On April 03 Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flares The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 456 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 8 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : B7 0320 UT Apr03
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-4.8% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 35 (SN 54 April 02)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ A transequatorial coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in ~3 days

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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 04_2024

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. No flares !!!
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NO FLARES! For the first time in 6 months, we had no flares at least above C1 level. The X-ray background has slowly declined over the last 48 hours. Looks like quiet time ahead for at least a few days. Keith Strong vía X ​

The following SpaceWeatherlive graph shows that on April 03 at 05:00 UTC the sun produced an A0 flare, the lowest possible level, a whisper of solar activity, after which activity continued at B-class levels.



The total number of sunspots has increased to 45 of which 5 of them are grouped into 4 active regions as follows: AR3624, AR3626, AR3627 & new region AR3628



NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 40% chance of C flares, 10% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (kp3) for the past 24 hours. On April 03 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493.7 km/s (Elevated speed) at 08:00 UTC Total IMF reached 8nT at 08:56 UTC.

Aurora Oval Bz: 4.16 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:47 UTC on April 04

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 2 (quiet) The solar wind is now at normal speed of more than 350 km/s pointing north which offers low conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes.

At 03:06 UTC Solar wind density reached 153.91 p/cm³ Which is a very high density value and is mainly due to the very low solar activity in terms of flare production and to a high-speed solar wind current.


On April 04 Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days.

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 362 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 7.4 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : B4 0122 UT Apr04
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-4.5% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 45 (SN 35 April 03)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ A transequatorial coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in April 05

......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​