Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 17_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 1802 UTC from Region 3643 (S13E48). The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over North and Central America.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780423792663122408

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 176 of which 66 of them are grouped into 11 active regions as follows:
○AR3633/ 3 sunspots / 80MH,
○AR3634/ 9 sunspots/ 310MH
○AR3635/ 3 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3636/ 3 sunspots/ 90MH
○AR3637/ 2 sunspots/ 20MH
○AR3638/ 8 sunspot/ 80MH
○AR3639/ 19 sunspots/ 310MH
○AR3641/ 6 sunspots/ 110MH
○AR3642/ 5 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3643/ 6 sunspots/ 100MH
○AR3644/ 2 sunspots/ 80MH (new region)

AR3628 & AR3640 are gone

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 60% chance of M flares and 10% chance of X flares.

Sunspots AR3737 and AR3643 have developed beta-gamma magnetic fields that harbor energy for M-flares, while AR3639 has a "beta-gamma-delta" magnetic field that poses a threat to X-class solar flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. On April 16 a Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) occurred at 19:10 UTC. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s (Elevated speed) at 15:46 UTC Total IMF reached 13 nT at 13:04 UTC.​

ANOTHER CME IS COMING: A faint CME left the sun on April 15th, the result of an M-class solar flare from sunspot AR3639. A NASA model predicts it will hit Earth's magnetic field on April 18th. The CME's impact could spark a G1-class geomagnetic storm with auroras at high latitudes. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: 4.8 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:53 UTC on April 17

Geomagnetic activity is at the Kp 3 index (unsettled). The solar wind has a normal speed of 348 km/s pointing north with a Bz value of 4.8 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. On April 16 at 13:04 UTC the interplanetary magnetic field had a strong impact on the Earth's magnetic field, however the rate has decreased and at the moment the impact is low, we have to observe in the next hours the influence of the IMF on the seismic activity. Geomagnetic storm subsided around 02:00 UTC
On April 17 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels.

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 348 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 12 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C8 0328 UT Apr17
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.9% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 176 (SN 190 April 16)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 18_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.6 event observed at 22:08 UTC from Region 3643 (S13E34). The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780775818093854840

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780778473084113002

The total number of sunspots has increased to 199 of which 66 of them are grouped into 11 active regions as follows:​

○AR3633/ 3 sunspots / 80MH,
○AR3634/ 8 sunspots/ 290MH
○AR3635/ 3 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3636/ 4 sunspots/ 70MH
○AR3637/ 4 sunspots/ 20MH
○AR3638/ 5 sunspot/ 30MH
○AR3639/ 16 sunspots/ 320MH
○AR3641/ 3 sunspots/ 60MH
○AR3642/ 5 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3643/ 20 sunspots/ 130MH
○AR3644/ 2 sunspots/ 80MH
○AR3645/ 8 Sunspots/ 30MH
○AR3646/ 3 sunspots/ 30MH

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 65% chance of M flares and 10% chance of X flares.

Sunspot AR3645 has developed beta-gamma magnetic fields that harbor energy for M-flares, while AR3639 has a "beta-gamma-delta" magnetic field that poses a threat to X-class solar flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. On April 17, Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 21:35 UTC Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21:01 UTC.

Aurora Oval Bz: 5.06 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:39 UTC on April 18

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 2 index (quiet). The solar wind has a elevated speed of 409 km/s pointing north with a Bz value of 5.06 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes.​

On April 16 at 13:04 UTC the interplanetary magnetic field had a strong impact on the Earth's magnetic field, however the rate has decreased and at the moment the impact is low, we have to observe in the next hours the influence of the IMF on the seismic activity

As expected, after a strong impact to the Earth's magnetic field (13 nT on April 16), hours later a M6.3 earthquake occurred in Japan.​

● M 6.3 - 17 km WSW of Uwajima, Japan
2024-04-17 14:14:45 (UTC)
33.162°N 132.387°E. 25.7 km depth
USGS earthquake alert

At 02:48 UTC on April 18 AR3643 produced a M2.2 flare that generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean​

On April 18 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 409 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 8 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 7.6 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M2 0248 UT Apr18
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.9% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 199 (SN 176 April 17)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 19_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2.2 event observed at 0248 UTC from Region 3638 (S18E03) See previous report.

Other M-class flares in the past 24h

● M1.2 at 07:37 UTC from AR3643 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India.


● M1.5 at 20:01 UTC from AR3647 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Central Pacific Ocean

● M1.5 at 20:16 UTC from AR3647 thr flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Central Pacific Ocean


The total number of sunspots has increased to 247 of which 107 of them are grouped into 14 active regions as follows:
○AR3633/ 3 sunspots / 80MH,
○AR3634/ 6 sunspots/ 220MH
○AR3635/ 3 sunspots/ 20MH
○AR3636/ 4 sunspots/ 60MH
○AR3637/ 6 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3638/ 5 sunspot/ 30MH
○AR3639/ 16 sunspots/ 290MH
○AR3641/ 1 sunspots/ 30MH
○AR3643/ 29 sunspots/ 160MH
○AR3644/ 2 sunspots/ 120MH
○AR3645/ 12 Sunspots/ 140MH
○AR3646/ 8 sunspots/ 70MH
○AR3647/ 10 sunspots/ 140MH
○AR3648/ 2 sunspots/ 10MH (new region)

AR3642 is gone

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 20% chance of X flares.

AR3639 has lost its delta component while new region AR3647 has a beta-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. On April 18 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 06:13 UTC Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23:08 UTC.

Aurora Oval Bz: -8.69 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:39 UTC on April 18

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 2 index (quiet). The solar wind has a normal speed of 374 km/s pointing south with a Bz value of -8.69 that offers good conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. A faint CME left the sun on April 15th and it had a weak impact on Earth's magnetic field but sparked auroras. The number of sunspots reached 247
​

Our star is currently covered in active sunspot regions, and a huge cluster in the southeast has been grabbing our attention. It’s been the source of most of the past day’s flares, as well as a near-continuous volley of plasma jets into space. Some of these jets extend to nearly the radius of the sun – over 400,000 miles – or the length of over 50 Earths back to back! And this cluster hasn’t been the only source of action. We’ve also been watching many prominences – long ropes of solar material and magnetic fields – billowing around the sun’s limb (edge), including a particularly long one spiraling off the north pole. It’s been a beautiful “sunny day” on our star as it reaches solar maximum. EarthSky.org​

On April 19 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels.

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 374 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 13.62 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 10 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C4 0252 UT Apr19
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.6% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 247 (SN 199 April 18)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 20_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 0453 UTC from Region 3647 (S13E00) The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Southeast Asia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781428420519375329

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 243 of which 104 of them are grouped into 15 active regions as follows:
○AR3635/ 2 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3636/ 2 sunspots/ 30MH
○AR3637/ 1 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3638/ 13 sunspot/ 60MH
○AR3639/ 19 sunspots/ 300MH
○AR3641/ 1 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3643/ 18 sunspots/ 130MH
○AR3644/ 2 sunspots/ 120MH
○AR3645/ 16 Sunspots/ 210MH
○AR3646/ 5 sunspots/ 20MH
○AR3647/ 9 sunspots/ 160MH
○AR3648/ 2 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3649/ 8 sunspots/ 20MH (new region)
○AR3650/ 4 sunspots/ 30MH (new region)
○AR3651/ 2 sunspots/ 10MH (new region)

AR3633 & AR3634 are gone

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781338167351685630

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 20% chance of X flares.

AR3639 has beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares while AR3647 has a beta-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to strong storm levels. On April 19 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 20:34 UTC Total IMF reached 18 nT at 14:18 UTC.
​

SYRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM (G3):
Earth's magnetic field is reverberating from a CME strike on April 19th (0500 UT), which produced an unexpectedly strong geomagnetic storm. First contact with the CME was unimpressive; the storm didn't start right away. Later, however, solar magnetic fields in the CME's wake connected to Earth's magnetic field; the storm commenced and quickly intensified. Storm levels reached G3 around 1900 UT SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: Bz: 1.18 nT North


● Current Conditions at 05:09 UTC on April 20

Geomagnetic storm has subsided and now we have a Kp 3 index (unsettled) During the geomagnetic storm, auroras were reported.

The solar wind has a moderate high speed of 517 km/s pointing north now with a Bz value of 1.18 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. On April 19 the IMF recorded a value of 18nT which represents a strong impact to the earth's magnetic field. Will any significant seismic, weather or volcanic event occur in the next few hours? Let's wait and see.

On April 19 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 517 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 13 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3.5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C4 0107 UT Apr20
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.6% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 243 (SN 247 April 19)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 21_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 1706 UTC from Region 3645 (S09W20).

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 240 of which 101 of them are grouped into 15 active regions as follows:
○AR3635/ 1 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3636/ 3 sunspots/ 20MH
○AR3637/ 6 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3638/ 12 sunspot/ 70MH
○AR3639/ 19 sunspots/ 240MH
○AR3641/ 1 sunspots/ 20MH
○AR3643/ 12 sunspots/ 90MH
○AR3644/ 2 sunspots/ 140MH
○AR3645/ 18 Sunspots/ 240MH
○AR3646/ 3 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3647/ 10 sunspots/ 200MH
○AR3648/ 1 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3649/ 1 sunspots/ 20MH
○AR3650/ 11 sunspots/ 120MH
○AR3651/1 sunspots/ 10MH

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 20% chance of X flares.

AR3639 has beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares while AR3647 has a beta-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. On April 20 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 05:53 UTC Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21:00 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.89 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:16 UTC on April 20

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 3 index (unsettled) The solar wind has a elevated speed of 456 km/s pointing south now with a Bz value of -1.89 that offers good conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1781694560697041131

On April 21 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels.

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 456 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 1.53 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C5 0226 UT Apr21
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.6% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 240 (SN 243 April 20)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 22_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3.3 event observed at 21:52 UTC from 3638 (S18W35) the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over North Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782204378490782175

The total number of sunspots has increased to 283 of which 118 of them are grouped into 19 active regions as follows:
○AR3636/ 1 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3637/ 2 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3638/ 11 sunspot/ 80MH
○AR3639/ 22 sunspots/ 260MH
○AR3641/ 1 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3643/ 10 sunspots/ 80MH
○AR3644/ 2 sunspots/ 150MH
○AR3645/ 20 Sunspots/ 290MH
○AR3646/ 8 sunspots/ 30MH
○AR3647/ 12 sunspots/ 220MH
○AR3648/ 1 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3649/ 1 sunspots/ 20MH
○AR3650/ 8 sunspots/ 70MH
○AR3651/4 sunspots/ 30MH
○AR3652/ 7 sunspots/ 60MH (new region)
○AR3653/ 1 sunspot/ 10MH (new region)
○AR3654/ 3 sunspots/ 10MH (new region)
○AR3655/ 3 sunspots/ 20MH (new region)
○AR3656/ 1 sunspot/ 20MH (new region),

AR3635 is gone.

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 20% chance of X flares.

AR3639 and AR3645 have beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares while AR3647 has a beta-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. On April 21 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 20:29 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17:05 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 2.57 nT North

● Current Conditions at 04:48 UTC on April 22

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 2 index (quiet) The solar wind has a elevated speed of 419 km/s pointing north with a Bz value of 2.57 that offers moderate conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes.
On April 22 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 419 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 0.75 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 7 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C6 0039 UT Apr22
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.3% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 283 (SN 240 April 21)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 23_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2.7 event observed at 15:50 UTC from Region 3656 (S10E62) the flare caused a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean


Other M flares

● M1 at 08:13 UTC from AR3645 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean

● M1.6 at 13:35 UTC from AR3645 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean
● M1.1 at 14:55 UTC from AR3646 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean
● M1.6 at 15:19 UTC from AR3646 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean
● M1 at 16:30 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782500479169110257

● M1.5 at 21:16 UTC from AR3638 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Pacific Ocean

​

RAPID-FIRE PLASMA JETS: Sunspot complex AR3638-47 has been in a almost-constant state of eruption for days. This animation from earlier today shows multiple jets of plasma shooting into space in only a few hours:​

​

Since last week, dozens of these jets have flown away from the sunspot group. All of them have missed Earth. The magnetic structure of the sunspot complex is guiding debris to the south--just far enough to miss our planet when the resulting CMEs pass nearby.​

An exception might be on the way. One of the jets emitted on April 22nd *might* have an Earth-directed component. ETA: April 26th. SpaceWeather.com​

The total number of sunspots remains at 283 of which 116 of them are grouped into 18 active regions as follows:
○AR3636/ 1 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3637/ 2 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3638/ 9 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3639/ 12 sunspots/ 200MH
○AR3643/ 7 sunspots/ 20MH
○AR3644/ 3 sunspots/ 150MH
○AR3645/ 18 Sunspots/ 260MH
○AR3646/ 14 sunspots/ 100MH
○AR3647/ 17 sunspots/ 200MH
○AR3649/ 3 sunspots/ 20MH
○AR3650/ 8 sunspots/ 100MH
○AR3651/ 3 sunspots/ 60MH
○AR3652/ 6 sunspots/ 120MH
○AR3653/ 1 sunspot/ 10MH
○AR3654/ 2 sunspots/ 20MH
○AR3655/ 6 sunspots/ 30MH
○AR3656/ 2 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3657/ 2 Sunspots/ 10MH (new region)

AR3641 AR3648 are gone

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 20% chance of X flares.

AR3639, AR3645 & AR3647 have beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. On April 22 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 04:57 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03:23 UTC​

CME REPORT: A NASA model of recent CME activity suggests that a solar storm cloud could graze Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of April 26th. The slow-moving CME is heading mostly south of our planet, but its northern flank could deliver a glancing blow sufficient to spark a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: -3.55 nT South

​

● Current Conditions at 05:27 UTC on April 23

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 2 index (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 389 km/s pointing south with a Bz value of -3.55 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. AR3654 has produced a M3.5 at 03:19 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean​

​

HIGHEST SUNSPOT NUMBER IN 20 YEARS: The current daily sunspot number (270), a measure of solar activity, has reached its highest number since August 2002 (281). That was the peak of Solar Cycle 23. So much for those claiming we are in a Grand Solar Minimum! Keith Strong vía X ​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782516999785980382

On April 23 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 389 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.25 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4.4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M3 0319 UT Apr23
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.3% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 283 (SN 283 April 22)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 24_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 08:21 UTC from Region 3654 (S08E31) the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean.


Other M-class flares on April 23

● M2.9 at 17:44 from AR3645 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Central America.

​

A SUPER-SYMPATHETIC SOLAR FLARE: What are the odds? This morning, April 23rd (0330 UT), NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory watched four regions on the sun separated by hundreds of thousands of kilometers explode almost simultaneously.​

​

The quadruple blast included three sunspots and a magnetic filament all erupting within minutes of one another. (The filament eruption is more obvious in this 304 Å movie.) Their combined X-ray output added up to category M3.6.​

Events like this are called "sympathetic solar flares"--pairs of explosions that occur almost simultaneously in widely-spaced active regions. Long ago, researchers assumed the eruptions were just freak coincidence, but a 2002 study proved otherwise. Some sunspots are linked by nearly-invisible magnetic loops in the sun's corona. Instabilities can rapidly travel from one to another, creating a chain reaction of explosions.​

Today's sympathetic flare was not a simple pair but a complex quartet covering much of the sun's Earth-facing hemisphere. This makes it "super-sympathetic." It is reminiscent of the Great Eruption of August 1, 2010, which included more than a dozen shock waves, flares, and filament eruptions spanning 180 degrees of solar longitude.​

Will any of the debris hit Earth? SOHO coronagraph images of the blast are now available, but the results are unclear Many faint overlapping CMEs can be seen leaving the sun in the hours after the quadruple eruption. If any are heading our way (a big IF), they would arrive on or about April​

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 282 of which 132 of them are grouped into 15 active regions as follows:

○AR3638/ 10 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3639/ 9 sunspots/ 160MH
○AR3643/ 6 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3644/ 6 sunspots/ 80MH
○AR3645/ 17 Sunspots/ 250MH
○AR3646/ 18 sunspots/ 200MH
○AR3647/ 20 sunspots/ 190MH
○AR3648/ 5 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3649/ 3 sunspots/ 20MH
○AR3650/ 12 sunspots/ 110MH
○AR3652/ 5 sunspots/ 120MH
○AR3654/ 13 sunspots/ 160MH
○AR3655/ 4 sunspots/ 130MH
○AR3656/ 3 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3657/ 1 sunspot/ 10MH

AR3636, AR3637, AR3651 & AR3653 are gone

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 20% chance of X flares.

AR3639, AR3645 AR3646 & AR3647 have beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. On April 23 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s (Elevated speed) at 07:17 UTC Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17:38 UTC​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): Multiple CMEs have left the sun this week, perhaps more than a dozen. The majority are on a trajectory due south of Earth. If the edge of even one grazes Earth's magnetic field, it could spark a G1-class geomagnetic storm. Potential impacts are likely to begin on April 25th. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: 4.64 nT North

● Current Conditions at 04:23 UTC on April 24

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 2 index (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 372 km/s pointing north with a Bz value of 4.64 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. AR3645 has produced a M1.7 at 00:29 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean



A second M1.8 flare occurred at 02:39 from AR3638 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean



On April 24 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 372 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 1.71 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1 0239 UT Apr24
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.9% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 282 (SN 283 April 23)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 25_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 22:59 from Super Group located in the Southern hemisphere (but probably AR3645) The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean

​

A SUNSPOT SUPER-GROUP:
A remarkable "super group" has formed in the sun's southern hemisphere. Just south of the equator, five sunspots are crowded together in close proximity with shifting areas of magnetic connection. The behemoth is crackling with solar flares:​

Amateur astronomer Andy Devey sends this movie from Mojacar, Spain: "I filmed the complex area consisting of five separate active regions between 10:00 and 12:35 UT on April 24th," he says. "Several C-class and almost M-class flares can be seen."​

The five sunspots are AR3638, AR3643, AR3645, AR3647 and AR3650. Bumping together, they have jointly produced three to five M-flares per day all week long. This activity is expected to continue as the super-group rounds the western limb of the sun where, for a day or so, it will be magnetically connected to Earth via the Parker Spiral. Debris (especially energetic protons) guided by the spiral could cause radiation storms on Earth on April 27-28. SpaceWeather.com​

The total number of sunspots has increased to 283 of which 123 of them are grouped into 16 active regions as follows:
​

Active Region​	Sunspots​	Size (MH)​
AR3638​	6​	30​
AR3639​	4​	80​
AR3643​	16​	240​
AR3644​	2​	60​
AR3645​	15​	260​
AR3646​	12​	230​
AR3647​	12​	140​
AR3648​	11​	70​
AR3650​	2​	10​
AR3652​	5​	80​
AR3653​	1​	0​
AR3654​	18​	130​
AR3655​	5​	120​
AR3656​	5​	20​
AR3657​	7​	20​
AR3658​	2​	10​

AR3649 is gone

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 15% chance of X flares.

AR3643, AR3645 AR3648 have beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On April 24 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s (Elevated speed) at 08:08 UTC Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21:14 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.8 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:23 UTC on April 25

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 1 index (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 328 km/s pointing south with a Bz value of -0.8 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes.
​

Over the past day, we had five M flares, four fewer than the day before. All the M flares came from the big sunspot complex in the sun’s southwest quadrant. This region is also continuing to produce long, beautiful jets. In the past day, we saw prominences dancing all around the visible sun. And a filament erupted in the sun’s northeast, which sent material northward away from Earth. Meanwhile, starting tonight, we are anticipating glancing blows to Earth from perhaps up to a dozen smaller coronal mass ejections, aka CMEs. These chunks of sun-stuff will likely only sideswipe us. And, because there are multiple chunks, the timing of their effects is difficult to pin down. EarthSky.org ​

On April 25 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels.

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 328 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 1.04 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M2 2259 UT Apr24
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.6% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 283 (SN 282 April 24)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
​

............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 26_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.3 event observed at 17:12 UTC from Super complex located in the Southern hemisphere (probably from AR3638) The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean



The total number of sunspots has decreased to 196 of which 75 of them are grouped into 17 active regions as follows:​

Active Region​	Sunspots​	Size (MH)​
AR3639​	2​	20​
AR3643​	5​	20​
AR3644​	2​	40​
AR3645​	12​	220​
AR3646​	9​	130​
AR3647​	8​	120​
AR3648​	8​	80​
AR3650​	2​	10​
AR3651​	1​	20​
AR3652​	1​	80​
AR3653​	1​	0​
AR3654​	12​	210​
AR3655​	4​	100​
AR3656​	1​	10​
AR3657​	3​	30​
AR3658​	3​	20​
AR3659​	1​	10​

AR3638 is gone

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 15% chance of X flares.

AR3648 & AR3654 have beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On April 25 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s (Normal speed) at 07:10 UTC Total IMF reached 8 nT at 1530 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: -6.52 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:06 UTC on April 26

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 2 index (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 346 km/s pointing south with a Bz value of -6.52 that offers good conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes.​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1):
One or more CMEs could graze Earth on April 26-27, sparking a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. The CMEs were hurled into space earlier this week by explosive activity in sunspot super-group AR3638-50. SpaceWeather.com​

On April 26 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to Minor storm levels.

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 346 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.69 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 8.47 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C5 0009 UT Apr26
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.5% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 196 (SN 283 April 24)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Antony]

- A "super-group" of spots has formed on the Sun. A furious magnetic storm is expected

The sun was covered with spots like smallpox – today there are 16 of them on the visible side. According to forecasts, outbreaks of the "dangerous five" will continue and the threat of a much stronger storm will increase.

BUYAN - Чё там в мире?

☝🏻🗣️ - На Солнце образовалась «супер-группа» пятен. Ожидается бешеная магнитная буря 📍Светило покрылось пятнами словно оспинами – на сегодняшний день их 16 штук на видимой стороне. По прогнозам, вспышки «опасной пятерки» продолжатся и угроза гораздо более сильной бури будет нарастать. 😯 BUYAN...

t.me

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 27_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 0636 UTC from Region 3639 (N30W90).​

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 154 of which 47 of them are grouped into 12 active regions as follows:

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH)
AR3639	1	10
AR3644	2	40
AR3646	5	90
AR3647	3	80
AR3648	6	80
AR3652	1	70
AR3654	19	160
AR3655	1	60
AR3656	1	10
AR3657	3	10
AR3658	4	60
AR3659	1	10

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 15% chance of X flares.

AR3648 & AR3654 have beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.​

PARTING SHOT FROM A SUPER SUNSPOT: A colossal cluster of five sunspot groups is rotating over the western limb of the sun this weekend. German amateur astronomer Harald Paleske was watching its departure on April 26th when he caught this parting shot:​

​

"It was only a small outburst, but it filled the camera chip on my Unigraph solar telecope," says Paleske. "The many months of adjustment work on the instrument have paid off and I am looking forward to the next few months of high solar activity."

So are we. Solar Max has arrived, and it is expected to continue for at least another 1 to 2 years. Not all of the outbursts Paleske catches will be "small."  SpaceWeather.com

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. On April 26
▪︎ Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4)
Threshold Reached: 14:56 UTC
▪︎ Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5)
Threshold Reached: 16:49 UTC

Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s (Normal speed) at 01:16 UTC Total IMF reached 13 nT at 15:15UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.19 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:06 UTC on April 27

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 3 index (unsettled) The solar wind has a normal speed of 376 km/s pointing south with a Bz value of -0.19 that offers good conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes.​

CME MISSES, SPARKS AURORAS ANYWAY: As predicted, a CME passed close to Earth during the early hours of April 26th. Despite the fact that the CME missed, it was still effective. Magnetic fields in the CME's wake connected themselves to Earth's magnetic field, opening a crack where solar wind could penetrate. The resulting G1-class geomagnetic storm ignited auroras over Canada:​

​

This could be the first of several CMEs on course for similar near misses this weekend. If the encounters are close enough, they may cause additional G1-class geomagnetic storms with auroras over high latitudes. SpaceWeather.com​

On April 27 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to Active levels.

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 376 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 10 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 9 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C3 0013 UT Apr27
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.5% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 154 (SN 196 April 26)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 28_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 21:40 UTC from Region 3654 (S08W23) the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1784405169041559867

An earlier M-class flare from the same region

● M2.1 at 12:35 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1784230595200958794

https://twitter.com/x/status/1784160136140902818

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 126 of which 39 of them are grouped into 12 active regions as follows:​

Active Region​	Sunspots​	Size (MH)​
AR3644​	2​	10​
AR3646​	2​	30​
AR3648​	2​	10​
AR3651​	1​	20​
AR3652​	1​	70​
AR3654​	18​	230​
AR3655​	1​	60​
AR3656​	1​	10​
AR3657​	3​	10​
AR3658​	6​	50​
AR3659​	1​	10​
AR3660​	1​	30​

AR3639 & AR3647 are gone

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 30% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares.

AR3654 has beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On April 27 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 10:01 UTC Total IMF reached 16 nT at 06:12 UTC​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G1): NOAA forecasters say that multiple CMEs could pass close to Earth this weekend. As the events of April 26th show, CMEs don't have to make a direct hit to cause a geomagnetic storm--see below. G1-class storms are possible on April 27th and 28th. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.47 nT North

● Current Conditions at 04:33 UTC on April 28

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 4 index (active) Active geomagnetic conditions threshold reached at 02:30 UTC The solar wind has a elevated speed of 446 km/s pointing north with a positive Bz value of 1.47 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes.

On April 26 Total IMF reached 13 nT at 15:15 UTC, later at 22:23 UTC a strong earthquake hit Mid-Indian Ridge with M6.0

On April 27 Total IMF reached 16 nT at 06:12 UTC, later at 08:35 UTC a strong earthquake hit Bonin Islands Japan with M6.5

There seems to be a relationship between a strong IMF and strong magnitude earthquakes.

On April 28 Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to Active levels.

▪︎ Geospace active (Kp 4)
▪Solar wind speed record: 446 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 3.63 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C4 2235 UT Apr27
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.2% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 126 (SN 154 April 27)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 29_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7.7 event observed at 12:35 UTC from Region 3654 (S05W37)

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 119 of which 37 of them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows:​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH)
AR3644	2	10
AR3646	1	10
AR3652	2	50
AR3654	25	310. Byd
AR3655	1	60
AR3657	1	10
AR3658	4	50
AR3660	1	30

AR3654 has a beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares


AR3648, AR3651, AR3656 & AR3659 are gone.

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 35% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On April 27 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s (high speed) at 23:56 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19:35 UTC on April 28

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.48 nT North​

● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on April 29

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 2 index (quiet) The solar wind has a elevated speed of 453 km/s pointing north with a positive Bz value of 0.48 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. AR3654 has produced a M3.7 at 0111 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1784770025816994086

​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--CANCELLED: Multiple CMEs that might have grazed Earth's magnetic field this weekend have so far failed to do so. Their late arrival (or, more likely, bad aim) reduces the chance of a geomagnetic storm. The current watch is cancelled. SpaceWeather.com​

On April 29 Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 453 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 3.42 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M3 0111 UT Apr29
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.0% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 119 (SN 126 April 28)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[mabar]

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.19 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:06 UTC on April 27

Could it be that this is an aurora? Seems to be passing clouds.

Rare glow over Kansas, #US (April 27, 2024)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785111040184680515

There are a couple of photos on the same day.