Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 08_2024

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE at early hours of May 08

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 1630 UTC from Region 3663 (N25W57) the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Central & North America


Other M-class flares

● M5.1 at 06:16 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over India region


● M1.3 at 08:23 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean


● M2.4 at 11:50 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Africa
● M1.5 at 12:54 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Africa
● M1 at 13:25 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Africa
● M1 at 13:35 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Africa


● M2.1 at 20:22 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over East Pacific Ocean
● M3.3 at 21:26 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over East Pacific Ocean
● M3.2 at 21:53 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over East Pacific Ocean

​

Looking at "the electrical installation" of these 2 regions we have in front of The Earth. AR3663 & AR3664​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787930514835267892

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 144 of which 64 of them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows:​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH)
AR3661	1	10
AR3663	15	400 Byd
AR3664	37	630 Byd
AR3666	2	80
AR3667	1	150
AR3668	6	30
AR3669	1	10
AR3670	1	40

AR3662 is gone.

AR3663 & AR3664 have beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class flares. AR3664 has grown in size reaching 630MH
​

THE CHANCE OF FLARES JUST DOUBLED:
There are now two dangerous sunspots facing Earth. In the past 48 hours, AR3664 has more than doubled in size, becoming one of the largest sunspots of the current solar cycle. It is inset in this magnetic map of the sun from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:​

​

Among the sunspot's dark cores, magnetic poles of opposite polarity are bumping together in explosive proximity. As a result, AR3664 now poses a threat for X-flares like its more active cousin AR3663 in the northern hemisphere. SpaceWeather.com​

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 90% chance of M flares and 50% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet for the past 24 hours. On May 07 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 602 km/s (high speed) at 01:50 UTC Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21:53 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.43 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:46 UTC on May 08

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 1 index (quiet) The solar wind has a elevated speed of 472 km/s pointing north with positive Bz value of 1.43 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes.
​

X-FLARE CHAMPION OF SOLAR CYCLE 25: Active sunspot AR3663 produced another X-flare today, an X1.0 category blast on May 8th (0145 UT). This makes it the most active sunspot of Solar Cycle 25 so far. Since May 3rd, the active region has tallied five X-flares, more than any other sunspot in the past 7 years. It may continue to run up the score as it approaches the sun's western limb later this week. SpaceWeather.com​

The X flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean​

On May 08 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 472 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 2 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : X1 0145 UT May08
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.3% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 144 (SN 148 May 07)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from a narrow coronal hole should reach Earth on May 8th.
............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[iamthatis]

There was a VERY weird-looking solar flare today. It's like a solid mass of light, sort of diamond shaped, that spins and wobbles as it diminishes. You can see it below @ the 50 second mark.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 09_2024

SMILE, THE SUN IS TAKING PICTURES OF YOU. Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 05:09 UTC from Region 3664 (S20W22). The flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over India region​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788268634776666123

Other M-class eventes on May 08

● M3.5 at 04:30 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region.
● M7 at 06:53 UTC fron AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region.
● M4.4 at 07:41 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region.
● M1.8 at 09:37 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Africa.
● M2.1 at 09:48 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Africa.
● M4 at 11:22 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean
● M8.5 at 12:04 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean
● M7.8 at 17:53 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over North America

● M2.9 at 18:36 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over North America
● M2 at 19:21 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over North America
● M1.7 at 20:34 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over North America
● M9 at 21:40 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over North America
● M9.7 at 22:27 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean


The total number of sunspots has decreased to 142 of which 83 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows:

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH)
AR3663	10	400 By
AR3664	62	1200 Byd
AR3666	2	70
AR3667	1	150
AR3668	5	30
AR3669	1	10
AR3670	2	40

AR3661 is gone

AR3663 is decaying and has lost its delta component while AR3664 Maintains a beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class flares. AR3664 has grown in size reaching 1200MH
​

THIS SUNSPOT IS HUGE: Sunspot AR3664 has grown so large, it is now rivals the great Carrington sunspot of 1859 in size and visual appearance. To illustrate their similarity, Carrington's famous sketch (to scale) has been added to a NASA picture of today's sun:​

How big is AR3664? Sprawling almost 200,000 km from end to end, it is 15 times wider than Earth. You can see AR3664 through ordinary eclipse glasses with no magnification at all. Moreover, it is easy to project an image of this sunspot onto the sidewalk or a white screen just as Carrington did in the 19th century.​

Carrington's sunspot is famous because in August and Sept. 1859 it emitted a series of intense solar flares and CMEs. The resulting geomagnetic storms set fire to telegraph offices and sparked auroras from Cuba to Hawaii. The "Carrington Event" has since become a touchstone of space weather in pop culture, with headlines stoking fears of an "internet apocalypse" if it repeats. Recent studies suggest that Carrington-class storms occur once every 40 to 60 years, so we're overdue.​

Does this mean we're about to get hit by another Carrington Event? Probably not. Big sunspots don't always produce big CMEs. Indeed, the CME AR3664 hurled toward us earlier today is puny compared to the CMEs of 1859. It won't cause much trouble when it arrives this weekend. Nevertheless, it would be wise to keep an eye on this growing active region while Earth is in its strike zone.​

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 95% chance of M flares and 60% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On May 08 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 02:56 UTC.​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): NOAA forecasters say that G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible on May 11th when a halo CME (described below) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. Storm conditions could escalate to category G3 (Strong) if, as we suspect, a second CME is following close behind. SpaceWeather.com​

EARTH-DIRECTED CME: A CME is coming. It was hurled into space earlier today by a roiling series of explosions in the magnetic canopy of giant sunspot AR3664.​

This movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory shows the CME leaving the sun bracketed by Venus (right) and Jupiter (left):​

​

A NOAA forecast model predicts the CME will reach Earth late on May 10th, sparking G1- to G2-class geomagnetic storms on May 11th.​

A second CME might be following close behind this one. You can see a hint of it emerging near the end of the movie, above. Stay tuned for updates as more data arrive from SOHO coronagraphs. SpaceWeather.com​

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.87 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:37 UTC on May 09

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 1 index (quiet) The solar wind has a elevated speed of 450 km/s pointing north with positive Bz value of 0.87 that offers modetate conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes.

On May 09 Solar activity is likely to be high with a chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 450 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 2 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M9 2235 UT May08
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.3% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 144 (SN 148 May 07)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun. .
............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[mabar]

spaceweather.com

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--UPGRADED: This weekend's geomagnetic storm watch has been upgraded from G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong). Why? Because giant sunspot AR3664 keeps hurling CMEs toward Earth. There are now at least 3 storm clouds heading our way.

And another one

 

[mabar]

The 5th.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788628646606815273

And it may be an... interesting weekend.

 

[Liliea]

A new flare of higher magnitude has been recorded on the Sun. Earlier in the day, there were already 3 X-level flares, but at the very limit of the class: X1.0. The score of the current event is preliminary nothing less than X2.2. This is the 7th most powerful flare of the current cycle.
An updated forecast of the geomagnetic consequences of yesterday's events on the Sun has been generated. According to observational data, an exceptionally large, high-speed double plasma ejection of exceptionally large size was ejected towards the Earth. As calculations show, as a result, the Earth will be hit 2 times in a row. The arrival of the densest part of the first ejection is expected tomorrow, May 10, at the end of the day. The second ejection will reach the Earth's orbit in the middle of Saturday, May 11.

The sun will hit like a double​

Yesterday we talked about the next period of solar activity. An updated forecast for the geomagnetic consequences of these events on the Sun has been formed. According to observational data, a double burst of plasma of extremely large size and extremely high speed was ejected towards the Earth. As calculations show, as a result, the Earth will be hit 2 times in a row. The arrival of the densest part of the first emission is expected tomorrow, May 10, at the end of the day. The second ejection will arrive in Earth's orbit in the middle of May 11, Saturday.

According to preliminary estimates, the first geomagnetic consequences may begin around noon tomorrow. According to specialists from the Solar Astronomy Laboratory of the Institute of Space Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the ISTP SB RAS, the duration of the unstable geomagnetic situation will be from 2 to 3 days. At the peak, storms up to medium and even strong levels, class G2-G3 on a 5-point scale, are possible.

It is expected that solar activity will remain at the current high level for at least several more days. There remains a high risk of new major events on the star closest to us.

Solar flares can cause magnetic storms on Earth, which in turn cause disruptions in energy systems and also affect the migration routes of birds and animals. However, if the flare occurs at a significant distance from the Sun-Earth line, it does not affect the planet.
Solar flares, depending on the power of X-ray radiation, are divided into five classes: A, B, C, M and X. The power of magnetic storms is assessed on a five-point scale. A G3 storm is considered severe.

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www.meteovesti.ru

 

[Debra]

Another link with this descriptive term:
GET READY FOR A 'CANNIBAL CME': Multiple CMEs are heading for Earth (see the movie below). A new NOAA forecast model suggests that three of them could merge to form a potent "Cannibal CME." Cannibal CMEs form when fast-moving CMEs overtake slower CMEs in front of them. Internal shock waves created by such CME collisions do an good job sparking geomagnetic storms when they strike Earth's magnetic field. Indeed, NOAA is now predicting a severe storm on May 11th when the Cannibal arrives. CME impact alerts: SMS Text

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 10_2024

Solar activity has been at very high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 0913 UTC from Region 3664 (S19W34) The flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over India, Middle East and Africa.​

Other events on May 09

● M1.7 at 04:49 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region
● M2.3 at 06:13 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region
● M2.4 at 06:27 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region

● M2 at 08:40 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India, Middle East and Africa.

● M3 at 11:56 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean.
● M2.9 at 12:12 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean.
● M3.7 at 13:23 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean.


● X1.1 at 17:44 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over North America & Central America


● M1 at 21:21 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Ocean Pacific
● M2.6 at 22:41 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean.
● M1.2 at 23:08 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean.


● M1.5 at 23:51 UTC from AR3664 ● M1.2 at 23:08 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean.


The total number of sunspots has increased to 170 of which 105 of them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows:

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH)
AR3663	10	300 By
AR3664	81	1090 Byd
AR3666	2	30
AR3667	1	120
AR3668	5	30
AR3670	1	40
AR3671	1	40 new reg
AR3672	4	20 new reg

AR3669 is gone

AR3663 is decaying and has lost its delta component while AR3664 Maintains a beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class flares.

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 95% chance of M flares and 60% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On May 09 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 00:19 UTC. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 2018 UTC

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788574845690683882

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.48 nT South


● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on May 10

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 3 index (unsettled) The solar wind has a elevated speed of 430 km/s pointing south with negative Bz value of -0.48 that offers good conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. M1.3 from AR3664 occurred at 0013 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean
On May 09 Solar activity is likely to be high with a chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels​

Sunspot region 3664 remains very active and since our last update two more earth-directed coronal mass ejections were launched. One from an X1.0 flare and one from an X2.2 flare. The CMEs can be seen on the animations from SOHO/LASCO below.​

This means four CMEs are likely to arrive at Earth starting late on 10 May. Expect moderate to severe geomagnetic disturbances over a period of several days. In response to this, the @NWSSWPC has issued a warning for possible severe G4 (Kp8) geomagnetic conditions on Saturday, 11 May.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788633497449504792

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 430 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 7 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 0 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1.3 0013 UTC May 10
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.0% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 170 (SN 144 May 07)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun. .
............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

X-FLARE

X3 at 06:54 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over India region

 

[Myeong In]

It is said that 6 solar storms are on their way to earth.

This reminds me the Miyake event, The latest two happened in 774CE 993CE, that is the end of Roman period.

Probably we will have aurora in low latitude. I wonder what will be the impact to our human being.

 

[Keit]

It is said that 6 solar storms are on their way to earth.

Here's what it says on Spaceweather:

ARE WE ABOUT TO EXPERIENCE A NEW CARRINGTON EVENT? No. AR3664 is indeed a 'Carrington-class' sunspot, but the CMEs it hurled toward Earth over the past few days are not as potent as the monster CME of Sept. 1, 1859. NOAA says we might experience a severe geomagnetic storm when the CMEs arrive this weekend. If geomagnetic storms were hurricanes, 'severe' would be category 4. The Carrington Event was category 5 or greater. So this is no Carrington Event. Even so, category 4 is pretty intense--if it happens. Stay tuned for some great auroras! Aurora alerts: SMS Text

FIVE CMEs ARE HEADING FOR EARTH: Great sunspot AR3664 has hurled an astonishing five CMEs toward Earth.​

Crazy! I also wonder how it will affect us all.

 

[mabar]

X-FLARE

X3 at 06:54 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over India region

View attachment 95568

That was the 6th, would this one be the 7th?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788939649466966326

 

[Puma]

In social networks at this moment

 

[mabar]

Crazy! I also wonder how it will affect us all.

Ben had explained it here, earthquakes, storms, physiological/psycological, technology issues (power grids, air traffic, internet/cellular, transformers, networks).

So, we will see.

And it may be an... interesting weekend.

 

[iamthatis]

We’ll also see if there is a phenomenon like the Quebec grid down situation. One normal CME hit, then our shields went down, and another somewhat normal CME immediately followed on and knocked out Quebec’s grid. We have a lot of protons heading our way, and the cumulative effect of them all, their relative speed, etc, could have a similar knock-on effect.