Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

Could it be that this is an aurora? Seems to be passing clouds.

This phenomenon was reported on April 26 and coincided with a minor geomagnetic storm G1, according to SpaceWeather is not an aurora but a product of a crack in the magnetic field and where the solar wind penetrates this phenomenon of "luminous" purple is called STEVE.
​

BLUE-SKY AURORAS (AND STEVE): A CME passed close to Earth on April 26th. It missed, but it was still effective. Magnetic fields in the CME's wake connected themselves to Earth's magnetic field, opening a crack where solar wind could penetrate. The resulting G1-class geomagnetic storm ignited auroras bright enough to photograph in blue sky over Norway:

"Interestingly, STEVE was also present," notes Geir Birkeland Øye, who photographed the display from Ørsta. "A faint mauve colored ribbon was observed from about UTC 21.02 to 21.34."

STEVE looks like an aurora, but it is not. The purple glow is caused by hot (3000°C) ribbons of gas flowing through Earth's magnetosphere at speeds exceeding 6 km/s (13,000 mph). Øye's photo shows that even near-miss CMEs can produce the phenomenon

 

[meadow_wind]

Could it be that this is an aurora? Seems to be passing clouds.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Northern Light forecast was not strong enough to produce such bright lights over regions so far South. It would need the G or KP factor to be much higher. Plus the movement of that light does not behave like Northern Lights.
I would agree with Puma's explanation of the STEVE phenomenon.

Hypothesis: What about a portal being activated, which disturbed the magnetic field and produced a STEVE? The rolling movement of the clouds from this video is similar to a daytime video we have somewhere on this forum that has been confirmed to be a portal.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 30_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3.7 event observed at 0111 UTC from Region 3654 (S05W37) see previous report.​

AR3654 has produced a M3.7 at 0111 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 88 of which 29 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows:​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH)
AR3652	1	50
AR3654	20	480. Byd
AR3655	1	60
AR3657	1	10
AR3660	2	10
AR3661	1	30 new reg.
AR3662	3	20 new reg.

AR3644, AR3646 & AR3658 are gone

AR3654 has a beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 35% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On April 28 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s (high speed) at 22:52 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 2303 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.39 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on April 30

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 2 index (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 389 km/s pointing north with a positive Bz value of 1.39 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. AR3654 has produced a M1 at 0114 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785135756798734365

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARES: Active sunspot AR3654 is crackling with M-class solar flares. The Earth-directed eruptions are causing shortwave radio blackouts at frequencies below 20 MHz. The most recent flare, an M3-class event on April 29th at 0111 UT, wiped out shortwave transmissions throughout much of the Pacific Ocean. SpaceWeather.com​

On April 29 Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 389 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.33 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1 0114 UT Apr30
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.5% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 88 (SN 119 April 29)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 01_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. AR3654 (S07W63) has produced 3 M-class flares. The largest solar event of the period was a M9.5 event observed at 23:46 UTC the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785492480844050700

Other M-class flares from AR3654

● M1.2 at 15:11 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean.


● M1.3 at 16:24 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Central America and Caribbean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785382967470137853

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 85 of which 37 of them are grouped into 6 active regions as follows:

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH)
AR3654	20	550
AR3655	1	40
AR3660	2	10
AR3661	1	40
AR3662	6	30
AR3663	7	10

AR3652 & AR3657 are gone

AR3654 has a lost its delta component and now has beta-gamma-class magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 55% chance of M flares and 10% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On April 30 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s (Elevated speed) at 22:35 UTC Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20:40 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 12.48 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:26 UTC on May 01

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 4 index (active) The solar wind has a normal speed of 393 km/s pointing north with a positive Bz value of 12.48 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. From April 30 to the first hours of May 01 the IMF has registered values higher than 10nT, which indicates a strong impact to the terrestrial field. Let's see what is the result in terms of seismic and volcanic activity as well as weather.

On May 01 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for an M-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels.​

▪︎ Geospace active (Kp 4)
▪Solar wind speed record: 393 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 7 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 12.87 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M9 2346 UT Apr30
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.7% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 85 (SN 88 April 29)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 02_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.9 event observed at 14:44 UTC from Region 3654 (S07W63) the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean

​

Other M-class flares

● M1.8 at 14:32 UTC from AR3654 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean

● M1.7 at 22:32 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785841160201597437

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 104 of which 44 of them are grouped into 6 active regions as follows:

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH)
AR3654	18	400
AR3655	1	30
AR3661	1	40
AR3662	10	70
AR3663	9	60
AR3664	5	40

AR3660 is gone

AR3654 & AR3663 have a beta-gamma-class magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares​

HIGHEST SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 22 YEARS: You would have to go back to August 2002 to have a daily sunspot number higher than the peak sunspot number recorded in April 2024. It is over 20% higher than the highest levels during the last solar cycle. No Grand solar Minimum in sight! Keith Strong on X​

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 95% chance of C flares, 55% chance of M flares and 10% chance of X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On May 01 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s (Elevated speed) at 04:31 UTC Total IMF reached 13 nT at 05:52 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: Bz: -2.53 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:26 UTC on May 02

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 3 index (unsettled) The solar wind has a normal speed of 356 km/s pointing south with a negative Bz value of -2.53 that offers good conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. Strong IMF of 13nT on April 30 and early hours of May 01 coincided with M5.9 earthquake in Papua New Guinea.​

● M 5.9 - 103 km ESE of Kimbe, Papua New Guinea
2024-05-01 23:45:25 (UTC)
5.801°S 151.037°E. 29.0 km depth
USGS earthquake alert

● Hail storm in France and Argentina

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785766575691239648

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785842854511734805

● Supercell captured over Salmi, Kuwait, near the border with Saudi Arabia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785824140072477004

● Heavy rains in Brazil

At least 5 people have died and more than a dozen are missing due to heavy rains affecting Rio Grande do Sul. A video shows a flooded street in the municipality Venâncio Aires, as rescuers carry out rescue work.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785606864366928381

On May 02 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels.​

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 356 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 7 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 9.58 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1 2231 UT May01a
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.7% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 104 (SN 85 May 01)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

DOUBLE CME STRIKE SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC STORM:

Two CMEs struck Earth's magnetic field on May 2nd. Individually, the impacts were minor, but together they sparked a G2-class geomagnetic storm with auroras as far south as Washington in the USA. Another CME is expected to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field on May 4th

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

Update

Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7)
Threshold Reached: 17:59 UTC

▪︎ Strong Geomagnetic storm (Kp 7)
▪Solar wind speed record: 432 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 3 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 21 nT

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices. intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen at 50° geomagnetic lat..

The strength of the interplanetary field has significantly increased to about 20nT with a consistent southward component of about -17nT.​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 03_2024

X-FLARE on early hours of May 03

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2.7 event observed at 20:57 UTC from Region 3664 (S18E52) the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786198589678444742

The total number of sunspots has increased to 115 of which 55 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows:​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH)
AR3654	6	240
AR3655	1	20
AR3661	5	50
AR3662	11	90
AR3663	18	230. Bd
AR3664	13	120
AR3665	1	10

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786005363390615713

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786037592250544258

AR3663 has a beta-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares. (In fact, while this report is being made, the region has produced an X-class flare)

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 65% chance of M flares and 15% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to strong storm levels for the past 24 hours. On May 02 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s (Elevated speed) at 18:02 UTC Total IMF reached 21 nT at 14:31 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.16 nT North

● Current Conditions at 03:00 UTC on May 03

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 4 index (active) The solar wind has a elevated speed of 499 km/s pointing north with positive Bz value of 1.16 The strong G3 geomagnetic storm has subsided (around 21:00 UTC), however, leaving excellent conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. M2.7 at 00:15 was produced by AR3664, the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean. ​

Later AR3663 produced a X1.69 at 02:22 UTC, the flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over East Asia

On May 03 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to severe storm levels.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786054263715606747

▪︎ Geospace active (Kp 4)
▪Solar wind speed record: 499 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 3.05 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : X1 0222 UT May03
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.6% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 115 (SN 104 May 02)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 04_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 0222 UTC from Region 3663 (N26W03). See previous report.​

EARTH-DIRECTED CME--CONFIRMED:
Today's X-class solar flare did indeed produce a CME, and it has an Earth-directed component. NASA and NOAA forecast models suggest the southern flank of the CME will arrive on May 5th after 1800 UT. The impact could cause G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms on May 5th and 6th. SpaceWeather.com​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786300543628980255

During the course of May 3rd AR3663 & AR3654 produced the following M class flares

●M4.4 at 08:11 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region


● M1.2 at 22:47 UTC from AR3654 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean



●M1 at 23:16 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean

●M2.4 at 23:30 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean



The total number of sunspots has increased to 121 of which 61 of them are grouped into 6 active regions as follows:
​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH)
AR3661	2	50
AR3662	4	100
AR3663	28	480. Byd
AR3664	16	240. By
AR3665	1	10
AR3666	10	120

AR3654 & AR3655 are gone

AR3663 has a beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class flares. AR3664 has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 25% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On May 03 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 0418 UTC Total IMF reached 15 nT at 2104 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.52 nT North


● Current Conditions at 03:00 UTC on May 03

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 1 index (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 382 km/s pointing north with positive Bz value of 1.52 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. M1.6 at 00:36 was produced by AR3663, the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean.

On May 04 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels.

​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 382 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 5.5 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1.6 0036 UT May04
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.7% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 121 (SN 115 May 03)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 05_2024

ALMOST X-FLARE. Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at 0619 UTC from Region 3663 (N26W16). The flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over India region.


Other M-class flares

● M1.5 at 07:07 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region.


● M1.2 at 18:20 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Central America region


● M3.2 at 22:37 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean​

● M9 at at 23:48 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786700572734697862

The total number of sunspots has increased to 136 of which 66 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows:​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH)
AR3661	1	50
AR3662	3	50
AR3663	30	580. Byd
AR3664	20	310. By
AR3665	1	10
AR3666	10	130
AR3667	1	80

AR3663 has a beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class flares. AR3664 has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 25% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On May 04 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 420 km/s (Elevated speed) at 23:19 UTC Total IMF reached 6 nT at 2022 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.85 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on May 05

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 2 index (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 328 km/s pointing south with negative Bz value of -1.85 that offers good conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. M8.3 at 01:27 UTC was produced by AR3663, the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean​

On May 04 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786870467455754498

https://twitter.com/x/status/1786751035521827331

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 328 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 7 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M8.3 01:27 UTC May 05
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.7% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 136 (SN 121 May 04)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 25% chance of X flares.​

X1.3 flare from sunspot AR3663

 

[Puma]

X1.3 flare from sunspot AR3663

View attachment 95302

View attachment 95303

From AR3663 (N26W20) at 06:01 UTC the flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over India region

 

[Puma]

ANOTHER X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE

X1.2 at 11:54 UTC from AR3663. The flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over Africa

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787101655097381266

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787109187895370229

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 06_2024

Solar activity has remained at very high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar events of the period were X1.3 and X1.2 flares observed at 0601 UTC and 11:54 UTC respectively from region 3663 (N26W31), see previous reports.

Other M class flares from the period:

●M1.2 at 0819 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean

●M2.3 at 09:38 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean


●M7.3 at 10:00 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean


●M1.3 at 14:47 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean

●M2.2 at 15:38 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean


● M1.3 at 17:01 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Central America

●M1 at 18:40 UTC from AR3664 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Central America east Pacific Ocean


●M1.3 at 19:52 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787120206768144783

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787294651067531591

The total number of sunspots has increased to 152 of which 62 of them are grouped into 9 active regions as follows:​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH)
AR3661	1	40
AR3662	1	30
AR3663	27	580. Byd
AR3664	20	580. By
AR3665	1	10
AR3666	4	120
AR3667	1	130
AR3668	6	40. New reg
AR3669	1	10. New reg

AR3663 has a beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class flares. AR3664 has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 90% chance of C flares, 90% chance of M flares and 50% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On May 05 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s (Normal speed) at 20:48 UTC Total IMF reached 12 nT at 20:55 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.91 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:47 UTC on May 06

Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5)
threshold reached: 01:17 UTC. The solar wind has a elevated speed of 400 km/s pointing north with positive Bz value of 0.91 that offers moderate conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. M1.6 at 01:06 UTC was produced by AR3663, the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean​

On May 04 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels
​

▪︎ Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5)
▪Solar wind speed record: 400 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 12.82 p/cm³ (moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 14.91 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1.6 01:06 UTC May 06
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.7% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 152 (SN 136 May 05)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
............................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 90% chance of C flares, 90% chance of M flares and 50% chance of X flares.

Strong X4.5 flare from sunspot AR3663 :





Strong R3 radio blackout in progress (≥X1 - current: X1.03)

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 07_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X4 event observed at 0635 UTC from Region 3663 (N25W45). The flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over India region (see Olivierlejardinier post)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787480394549342515

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787546236599349573

Other events in the past 24 hrs

● M1.3 at 05:28 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region.


● M1.5 at 09:59 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Africa and Middle East


● M1.2 at 21:48 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean
● M4.2 at 22:27 UTC from AR3663 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787492581296758859

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 148 of which 58 of them are grouped into 9 active regions as follows:​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH)
AR3661	1	20
AR3662	1	10
AR3663	18	600 Byd
AR3664	22	560 Byd
AR3666	2	70
AR3667	1	130
AR3668	11	50
AR3669	1	10
AR3670	1	20

AR3665 is gone

AR3663 & AR3664 have beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class flares. Both regions occupy an area 3.5 times larger than the Earth.​

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 90% chance of M flares and 50% chance of X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to Minor storm levels (G1 at 01:17) for the past 24 hours. On May 06 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 19:34 UTC Total IMF reached 19 nT at 05:50 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.74 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on May 07

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp 2 index (quiet) The solar wind has a high speed of 520 km/s pointing north with positive Bz value of 1.74 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes.​

IS ANOTHER CME COMING? MAYBE: Don't be surprised if a CME grazes Earth's magnetic field in the next 48 hours. A flurry of strong solar flares over the weekend hurled multiple, overlapping CMEs into space. Their trajectories are hard to model, but at least one may have an Earth-directed component. SpaceWeather.com​

Solar wind flowing from this narrow coronal hole should reach Earth on May 8th.

On May 07 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 520 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 2 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M4 2227 UT May06
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.7% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 148 (SN 152 May 06)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Solar wind flowing from a narrow coronal hole should reach Earth on May 8th.
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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com