SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 11_2024
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X3. 98 event observed at 06:54 UTC from Region 3664 (S17W48). the flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over India region
In addition, AR3664 produced the following M-class flares on May 10
● M1.3 at 06:24 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region
● M2.2 at 10:14 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region Africa
(Signs of Radiation Storm on Polar Regions Begin to Show)
● M5.8 ar 14:11 UTC the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean.
Minor S1 radiation storm on Polar Regions
● 17:07 First CME impact detected - Solar Wind Speed 690km/s - IMF: Bt (strength): 22nT & Bz: -8nT (South). 17:44 UTC Geomagnetic Storm G4 (Kp8) IMF: Bt 47.21 nT
● M1.1 at 18:32 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Americas.
Moderate S2 Solar Radiation Storm on Polar Regions
● M1.7 at 18: 48 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Americas
● M2 at 19: 05 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Americas
● M1.1 at 19:53 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Americas
● M1.9 at 20:03 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over East Pacific Ocean.
● M3.7 at 21:08 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over East Pacific Ocean
● Extreme G5 geomagnetic storm (Kp9) Threshold Reached: 22:54 UT.
The total number of sunspots has decreased to 156 of which 76 of them are grouped into 6 active regions as follows:
AR3663 & AR3668 are gone
AR3664 Maintains a beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class flares. Its size is 2400MH ! (Earth is 170MH aprox) The active region will be leaving the solar disk this weekend
NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 95% chance of M flares and 75% chance of X flares.
● Auroral Activity
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. On May 10 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 754 km/s (high speed) at 19:17 UTC. Total IMF reached 71.48 nT at 2018 UTC
Aurora Oval Bz: 7.17 nT North
● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on May 11
Severe G4 geomagnetic storm (Kp8) in progress. The solar wind has a high speed of 680 km/s pointing north with positive Bz value of 7.17 and a radiation storm that offers good conditions for aurora sightings at high and low latitudes.
AURORAS IN FLORIDA! Many people around the world have just seen auroras for the first time in their lives. This includes residents of the Florida Keys. Ron Jarrell sends this photo from Big Pine Key at latitude 24.7° N: SpaceWeather.com
X5.89 from AR3664 occurred at 01:23 UTC the flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean
On May 11 Solar activity is likely to be high with a chance for an X-class flare while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels.
▪︎ Severe G4 geomagnetic storm (Kp8)
Threshold Reached: 03:27 UTC
▪Solar wind speed record: 680 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 17 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 39 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : X5 0123 UT May11
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.6% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 156 (SN 170 May 07)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun. .
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